Table On-Topic Summary - 15-Aug-2002
A compilation of this board's financial/economic posts From 40500 to 40571

Post  40501  by  Arkural       Reply
Mkt-A dry wick, was lit.

I don't know what the heck was up with RB this afternoon on my end, I could not get thru at all, maybe a system overload as folks like schools of fish moved in unison blabbing about the mkt rally or maybe not. Oh well, there were plenty of nice moves int BIG CAP TECH. Geez, I wonder why sizeable dough pulled out of various bonds and went where no man has gone before or at least recently, in such droves.

It appears now that the call was accurate in direction/movement but not accurate in the numerical (SP)range I posted.

Optimistic view: The mkt may indeed have legs up to but not inclusive of friday. We might be able to be a blind monkey for a day. I anticipate at least +2-3% in the SP/Dow and the Naz should ride the coattails some. Those %'s would get us into the 935+ and 9K areas as previously tgt'd. If for whatever reason these levels are breached with conviction, then I guess we will need to hold on to our hats because it may mean something more powerful is at hand than a (est.) 2-3-day wonder. What is being verified is the indication of "abrupt reversals". Therefore if we do follow thru this week, I'm not planning hanging around in trade positions over this weekend.

Pessimistic view: The rally is sold into and we do not pass GO.


Heresay today, gone on-the-morrow...

oh, Emc'ers, due to Brcd/Ntap pile on, I think Emc sht./immediate term may have a try at the low 8's maybe more.

Post  40502  by  oldCADuser       Reply
Ark, I had the same problem getting onto RB. It hit me twice today, once in the morning (Pacific Time) and once about 3 o'clock. No problem tonight.


Post  40504  by  beusa_1       Reply
August 14, 2002, New York spot gold settled lower at $311.70 an ounce, off $2.40 from
yesterday’s close.
Yesterday the price of gold rose in after hours trading after
the Federal Reserve shifted its bias to "ease" from neutral while leaving
short-term interest rates unchanged, boosting the prospects for inflation.
However, today late in the gold trading session there was noticeable persistent
fund selling.
The U.S. dollar also recovered slightly during the afternoon trading
session and that put additional pressure on gold sentiment.
There are several
rumors that there is a wave of gold and silver selling by banks and funds today,
however, the price of gold is putting up stiff resistance. Rick Rule of Global
Resource Investments says, "I am very much of the view that the 20-year bear
market in gold coincides with the 20-year bull market in the dollar," he says
from his Carlsbad, Calif., office. "Gold will come to supersede the dollar as the
reserve currency of choice among central banks."

Silver prices fell 12 cents to the $4.455 area triggered Wednesday morning on
the back of heavy fund long liquidation and bank selling that triggered automatic
stop-loss sell orders at recent lows around $4.57 that washed prices lower.
Dealers said the Millennium Futures Group fund was the main seller through the
morning, offloading around 2,000 contracts amid thin conditions early. Large
U.S. bullion banks joined in as sellers as prices declined, tripping the stop
orders in place just below recent lows and driving prices to their four-month

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $315.65 an ounce, down from $316.25
an ounce at the morning fixing. Resistance around $318 an ounce once again
held in the face of bank selling early in Europe pulled the market back to the
middle of the $313-$318 an ounce range, where prices were expected to hold
for the remainder of the week. Afshin Nbavi, dealer at MKS Finance in
Geneva, said the U.S. economy would show further signs of weakness in the
weeks ahead and gold should reap the benefits of this. He felt confident another
test of resistance at $330 an ounce was on the cards and if this level can be
broken a test of next resistance at $350 an ounce could unfold.
"I feel that gold
now has the room to test back toward the highs of last month at $326, as more
investors enter the market in search of gold's safe-haven value," said James
Moore, metals analyst at

Earlier gold closed at U.S. $316.85 an ounce on Wednesday in Hong Kong, up
$2.30 from Tuesday's close of $314.55.
Gold prices surged higher in Asian
trading on the weaker U.S. dollar and disappointment over the Federal Reserve
decision not to cut the prime-lending rate.
Gold traded higher by $3.30 to
$317.65 an ounce in Tokyo.
With the dollar substantially weaker against the
yen, Japanese participants bought gold in the spot market to arbitrage against
their sales on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange's gold futures, traders said.
"There's been good Japanese buying throughout the day, despite the local
holiday there," said a Hong Kong-based trader.

In its Gold Study 2002, the Canadian Dominion Bond Rating Service (DBRS)
said that the price of gold should improve.
A number of factors have combined
to drive up the price of gold, DBRS said. The US dollar began to weaken
against most other major world currencies during that period, the report said,
most notably the Euro and the Japanese Yen.
The faltering US greenback was
positive for gold producers as a weaker US dollar traditionally leads to higher
gold prices.
Although market volatility may slow down or speed up the process,
DBRS believes the US dollar will continue to weaken over the next few years.
The low contango has also been supportive of higher gold prices by driving
down hedging.
DBRS described the contango as the difference in the gold
leasing rate (usually a stable 1.5% for a one-year lease rate) and the central
bank prime-lending rate.
With the contango at about 1% of US central bank
rates, hedging has been reduced because forward rates are not high enough to
be attractive.
A decline in gold mining production over the next number of years
was also expected to push gold prices higher, the report said.
With many older
mines preparing to shut down in coming years, and fewer new projects
scheduled to begin, a lack of supply will force a shift in prices.
Concerns over
potential conflicts in the Middle East and Asia and terrorist attacks in the US
reinvigorated investment in gold, primarily in the months following the September
11 attacks, DBRS said.
Other factors, including consolidation between gold
producers, market distrust after the recent accounting scandals in the US and
new marketing initiatives have all worked towards inflating the price of gold.


Gold prices held up very well over night and in early trade in New
York, then a sustained wave of fund selling was noticed beginning about

This followed early bank selling in Europe that had little effect on the
price of gold and late day fund selling in gold and silver in New York, however,
gold sentiment was temporarily muted and the price of only gold fell $2.40.

that much pressure on precious metals it is amazing that the metals have held up
so well especially during the normally slack August session.

Also, geopolitical
tensions appear to be another issue on the horizon as U.S. troop and equipment
movements to the Middle East portend another major operation against Iraq
may soon be underway in coming months.

Petroleum prices have been steadily
rising over the last several days in anticipation of war in the Middle East.

Meanwhile the equities markets regained the losses from yesterday on the back
of large block trades of Standard and Poors Depository Receipts (SPDR).

Several companies’ corporate executives have yet to sign the “oath” certifying
that their financials statements are accurate and others are refusing to sign.

Nevertheless, the market appears to have blown off any concerns about more
corporate malfeasance and accounting irregularities by blindly moving higher on
the back of very weak fundamentals.

Once the euphoria of the “oath” signing
(with mixed results) passes, the market rally could stall once again.

*****Meanwhile the fundamentals for gold have not changed and today’s price is only a reflection of
weak funds selling into
the recent gold rally.*****

Interview With: S.E. Hayden
President and CEO
Dated 07/02/2002
Click below to hear audio...

Imo. TIA. Pass It Along>>>>>>>>>>>

(Voluntary Disclosure: Position- Long; ST Rating- Strong Buy; LT Rating- Strong Buy)

Post  40505  by  lkorrow       Reply
Tin, you had asked if I recalled when PRU, MET, etc., were fined for misrepresenting policies (years back now).

Yes, it was depressing when the news broke. I'll tell you what I recollect from the press releases and reports. By way of disclosure, I was a MET employee for most of my career (23+ yrs, IT network planning) and I am now classified retired. I consider MetLife to be one of the greatest companies in America and I'm thankful for the opportunities I had to contribute and for the talented people I was privileged to work with. MetLife employs around 45,000.

Apparently, the type of insurance instrument sold was not correctly represented to some customers in Florida and a couple of other states. As you know, Snoopy is our mascot. To me, and I'm sure others, he represents the soul of our company. That some sales agents did not live up to the integrity and trust that Snoopy represents was tough.

MetLife didn't stop with paying the fines. I believe they offered everyone who was sold that type of policy the option to switch to another instrument, go with what they had, or leave with a full refund. Ethics and Compliance reported directly to the CEO. And an initiative was launched to implement a private broadcast TV network to offices across the Nation so the Chairman and CEO of MetLife and the leadership team could speak to virtually the entire sales organization, reinforcing ethics, the importance to us and them of our brand, our vision, sales training, etc.

Part II: Cash flow or weak balance sheet?

Pmcw suggested AAME, AIG, AXA, CNC, CSR, DEG, ING, IX, MET and UCI have either cash flow problems or a weak balance sheet. I don’t follow insurance closely, but I can provide some information on MET and PRU, the top two life insurers.

To say I’m less experienced on this than pmcw is an understatement, but I’m not sure why MET is on the list. The low cash on hand? Wouldn’t the cash flow and revenue stream make up for this? CEO Bob Benmosche was on CNBC and mentioned lower expectations for the rest of the year due to stock market expectations. He also said they have and are repositioning the portfolio to minimize exposure. With MET’s revenue and income growing, I don’t think non-performing assets, i. e., investment losses, are a drain on cash flow, are they? Be gentle, I’m learning . . .

MetLife and Prudential – Forbes 500 (2001)

MetLife (MET) is the Number One life insurer in America. Approximately half of their business is pensions and most Fortune 500 companies are customers. They are the 17th largest company in the Nation in terms of assets -- $257 billion – and are ranked 52nd on the Forbes 500 list of America’s largest companies. Upon their IPO two years ago, they were the most widely held stock in America. The Forbes list puts their cash flow at $579 million and their market value at $22B.

Prudential is the second largest life insurer in the Country. They are ranked 59th on the Forbes 500. They have $293B in assets, a market value of $18B and cash flow of -$154 million.

MetLife and Prudential – Yahoo Stats

MET - For the six months ended 6/30/02, total revenues increased 6% to $16.6 billion. Net income before accounting change increased 18% to $716 million.

Market cap: $18.4B
Cash: n/a
Debt equity: .22
Sales (ttm): $32.8B (2* 1Q-2Q = $33.2B)
Income (ttm): $577M

PRU - For the three months ended 3/31/02, revenues fell less than 1% to $6.69 billion. Net income fell 65% to $153 million.

Market cap $18.5B
Cash $13.4B
Debt/equity: .58
Sales (ttm):: n/a (but 4*2Q sales = $26.84B)
Income (ttm): -68M

MetLife on Forbes 500:

Prudential on Forbes 500:

Forbes 500 list:

MET Yahoo profile:

PRU Yahoo profile:

Post  40506  by  Tampathom       Reply
Goldman downgrades EMC, Sun to a market outperform
...also lowered 2003 and three-year estimates on the entire hardware group.

Post  40507  by  Tampathom       Reply
Dan Niles at Lehman Bros. raised his rating of the computer hardware sector to "neutral" from "negative," citing the stabilization in U.S. enterprise demand.

Post  40508  by  Decomposed       Reply
re: SEC reviews TYCO

If you remember, the furious pace of Tyco's growth was driven, in large part, by their reputation for acquiring losers and quickly turning them around. My impression of them was blown for good, though, when I read an interview with an executive at one of the acquisitions. Before TYCO purchased his company, he said they had put enormous pressure on the management to revise accounting so as to make earnings look WORSE.

What kind of a company is this that seeks to deceive its stockholders (a.k.a. its OWNERS)? I'll be very surprised if between them, SEC investigators and new CEO, don't have some interesting things to report.

What impact can this have on the stock? Only positive, I would think. Everyone already expects the worse. If the reports aren't as bad as they could be, TYCO might actually advance.

Tyco says SEC reviewing statements

Conglomerate’s CEO orders broader accounting probe

BOSTON, Aug. 15 — Tyco International Ltd., whose accounting has been under fire all year, Wednesday said U.S. regulators are reviewing its most recently filed financial statements while its new chief executive orders a broad investigation into the conglomerate’s accounting.

TYCO’S DISCLOSURE, made in a quarterly filing with the U.S. SEC, reveals that the Bermuda-based conglomerate has stepped up the scrutiny of its own accounting under new Chief Executive Edward Breen. It also shows Breen is looking beyond the alleged deeds of his predecessor, Dennis Kozlowski, to help restore the company’s shattered credibility with investors and Wall Street.

About $90 billion in market capitalization has been erased at Tyco this year amid accounting worries, strategy flip-flops and the abrupt resignation of Kozlowski, who faces criminal charges for evading sales taxes on art work purchases.

Tyco previously said the Securities and Exchange Commission inquiry dealt with events related to Kozlowski’s departure. An internal investigation at Tyco is looking into allegations corporate funds were used improperly to buy mansions and art for senior executives.

The internal probe came after the Manhattan district attorney’s office brought charges against Kozlowski in June.

The SEC’s division of corporate finance, however, is performing a full review of Tyco’s most recent annual report and subsequent quarterly filings, Tyco said.

While the review is still ongoing, Tyco said it has agreed to amend those filings to expand disclosure and to reclassify amounts related to restructuring liabilities and purchase accounting liabilities.

“To date the areas of (SEC) comment include, among others, adequacy of disclosures and ... acquisition integration plans and related purchase accounting liabilities; accounting for the purchase of security monitoring contracts and segment data,” Tyco said.

“In addition, during the course of the review, the SEC staff may raise comments with respect to other accounting or disclosure matters,” Tyco said. “We cannot predict when this review will be completed or the nature of amendments that may be required as a result of this review.”

In addition, Tyco’s outside auditor PricewaterhouseCoopers, is working with the law firm of Boies, Schiller & Flexner and the forensic accounting firm, Urbach Kahn & Werlin Advisors, to conduct an in-depth review of Tyco’s accounting beginning with fiscal year 1999 and extending into the fourth quarter of the current fiscal year, Tyco said.

The review will include reviewing Tyco’s revenues, profits, cash flow and internal auditing procedures as well as past and present accounting for acquisitions and reserves, Tyco said.

Post  40509  by  StockRyder       Reply
Maniati, thanks for your post on options. You've changed my thinking a bit. I had already figured out that expensing options would not really accomplish anything, but I had not realized how dangerous that could be by creating positive tax benefits (i.e. encouragement) for options and option abuses.

I have often wondered if dilution is really necessary for the issuance of incentive options. Couldn't the company treasury just purchase shares on the open market (a share buyback) and then issue options against those shares held in the treasury. At least that would show up on the balance sheet. I work for a private company that hasn't issued a new share in 25 years. It sure seems to have worked well for us and it's much easier to estimate future earning potential with an assumption of zero dilution.

As for DCF analysis, I find it really difficult to estimate the future dilution potential of incentive options. To do it right, you not only have to estimate when the currently issued options are exercised, but you also have to estimate the company's propensity to issue future options and what those exercise prices and dates might be. With some of the option happy tech companies and the often habitual repricing of existing options, this uncertainty alone is enough to make DCF analysis completely worthless. Your thoughts...

Post  40510  by  Warstud       Reply
VTSS just hit $1.12. eom

Post  40511  by  Decomposed       Reply
SANM just hit my target, and I sold at $3.53 for an 18% gain. Not a bad one-day turnaround!

Thanks again for the tip, Briguy.

Post  40512  by  pricegriz       Reply

I have first hand experience of what the ECM's are going through "in spades", "with 5 no-trump" last called, by them!

The conversation here has been about strongest placed in current pack of OEM suppliers and, given that theme , am happy with the content of both exchanges.

The conversation as to the longevity of this or any other business sector speciality in this market is unknown at this time. If ECM's do not eventually prosper then OEM's will have to complete in house. Not the most efficient on a cash basis but controleable from financial and customer standpoint. Afterall there are plenty of component stuffing machines out there right now, gathering dust.

Regards - Griz

Post  40514  by  Arkural       Reply
Emc-GS, like the rest of the forked-tongue houses, GS's gal puts in a d.grade NOW. What about when it was 50 dear? What about all these months on its way down, dear?
This is WS at work, they leave their previous ratings, sometimes for months. It's like unregulated business dealings. . . .So let me see you told me/retail, you and my broker, to buy at 50 and NOW you are telling me a d.grade, hmmmmmm. WHY didn't my broker call me and tell me, the dumb money, to get out when it broke major support, how come?
When you know the answer you will know why many brokers are proxies for something else that have nothing to do with your best interests. Why didn't your broker tell you to short stks like Emc a year or two ago, hmmmm?

Besides why so many reiterations of Emc and Sunw d.grade. How come when they spoke of Naz d. grades they included Emc, a listed security. Is that just poor journalism or something else?


Alice in Wonderland

Post  40516  by  Tampathom       Reply
GS downgrades EMC.

Isn't it just like them. Makes you wonder if anything has changed at the major brokerage houses.

Post  40518  by  pmcw       Reply
TYC had a reputation for buying losers????????? Not if you knew some of their major acquisitions. Let me give you one example. They bought AMP which was the largest and best run connector company on the planet and then proceeded to decimate it. Sure they cut costs, but at what price. Every employee I spoke with a year after the acquisition (those still there and those not) hated the acquisition. This sets at the foundation of my very strong dislike for TYC.

If you want another example of how TYC works, talk with a company that has been associated with the marketing arm of ADT. IMO, their tactics are despicable and dishonest!

Regards, pmcw

Post  40519  by  pmcw       Reply
One of my favorite posters from the XICO thread on Yahoo asked me several questions. When I tried to answer his questions on Yahoo it said my post was too long. Rather than accommodate a stupid system I decided to post the answers here. I hope you don't mind.

There are a few acronyms used in this post that might not be familiar to others. They are:

NVM: Non-volatile memory
VR: Voltage Reference
PVR: Programmable Voltage Reference
EEPROM: Electronically Erasable Programmable Read Only Memory

Q: 1) Do you think there might be some reluctance by customers to embrace Xicor's upcoming new products simply because they are a new supplier and don't have the track record of the competitors i.e. will there be reliability concerns that will make them cautious, or does the fact they have been in business for over 20 years with no significant reliability problems in NVM make that a non issue?

A: 1) One of the things I liked most about the electronics industry and semis in particular was that those in it had, for the most part, an open mind to new stuff. They also love an entrepreneur and don't look down on those who start young. That was a good thing since I was 24 when I started my company. There are various types of customers and there will be early adapters and those who come late to the party. There will be companies that feel they must test the heck out of the part before they offer it in production and others who believe XICO's test data. I suspect the latter is one reason that XICO is taking so much time to release the part to production. A EEPROM cell is well known to be of archival quality when used for digital storage, but they can leak quite a bit and still resolve a one or a zero. This leakage (something much more prevalent in thin oxide) issue will be the key. I'm confident that XICO has been busy running aging tests (there are well established ways to use high temperature to advance the aging of a device that would be very appropriate for this technology since the high temp increases electron mobility).

Q: 2) Based on the specs for the new Precision Voltage Reference that we've been let in on and using Lou's comment on a very competitive price point how quickly might you expect them to gain traction and start contributing meaningfully to revenue?

A: 2) Pricing is a science in and of itself. One doesn't want to destroy high margin markets by using low prices in others nor do you often seen "promotional" pricing to gain a socket in a high volume application. Price increases a year or two after you're already in production are not very popular. A couple of ways around this is to "grade" the part for precision and sell lower grade parts at a discount. Remember too, XICO can add some slick digital features such as a block of memory, a watchdog timer, a RTC, etc. to these parts and make them quite unique for a particular application. XICO is developing quite a stable of functions. Due to this a marketing position at the company would be both an exciting and challenging job. Bottom Line: I think they will start to get traction right away and we'll see meaningful sales in the second half of 03.

Q: 3) Do you think it is possible or probable that Xicor might come out with an artificially low introductory price on the PVR's to try to capture sockets as quickly as possible. Then knowing they have a superior solution that most would be willing to pay for increase the price later to a more traditional GM level?

A: 3) I started to answer this question above and I'll finish it here. I believe that the XICO part will provide higher precision, lower power, the advantage of programmability and cost less than other VR's to build. Therefore, XICO could sell it for somewhat less and make more, but why. This again is where marketing comes in. There are some applications that would actually pay more and others where the extra precision, lower power and/or programmability mean nothing. I'm sure they'll come up with ways to avoid destroying the high ASP market, but of course, the valley has never been particularly ripe with "real" marketing talent. I said about a decade ago that if there were marketing police AMD marketing would be serving a life sentence. That is true for about 90% of the valley. However, I feel XICO is in the minority in this department.

Q: 4) Knowing they have essentially no competition for their PVR in the handhelds market do you expect a "version" of the PVR targeted direct at that market, more of a ASSP, that they can price at a premium and get a 70%+ GM, or has the approach of being "socket compatible" eliminated that option?

A: 4) Answered in three and four.

rj, I've been contemplating this part for nearly a decade and a half. I discovered the inherent capability and virtue of XICO's memory cells through searching for a solution for a neural net memory storage device in 1988. I'm quite confident that this technology will give XICO the keys to a very large city. It will be interesting to see how they manage this opportunity.

The other point that few have discussed is that a VR is a building block function in a wide variety of analog parts. These include data convertors, hot swap controllers, regulators, etc. Since XICO will have a very unique VR they will be able to leverage the features (particularly the ability to program the voltage on the fly) in many other product families. Consider this, name one company on the planet that will have the combination of non-volatile memory, DCP and PVR function blocks to place on a single chip. Now, name one that also has the ability to design mixed signal devices that can be built in a standard 0.18 micron flow that is used at the high volume digital fabs. There is only one company you can name and that company is XICO.

Regards, pmcw

Post  40521  by  Arkural       Reply
lk-A: WallStreet. Pardon me. eom

Post  40522  by  pmcw       Reply
A primer from the Chairs of the upcoming Next Generation Network (NGN) Conference in Boston:

Dear Colleague:

Will 3G mobile data networking be severely affected by wireless LAN "hotspots?" There is now ample evidence that many of the applications that providers once assumed for 3G wireless networks may be more appropriately served by public 802.11 WLANs.

Consider that you're away from your home or office (where wired or WLAN connectivity are presumably readily available) and need to communicate. If in your car driving, it's arguably possible to safely carry on a voice phone conversation. But you probably won't try to check your email, use a browser to read web pages, or compose text messages while driving (hopefully other drivers will similarly refrain from these activities).

If out traveling and you actually do need to check your email or a website, then (not while driving your car) you're likely to find a public WLAN hotspot at restaurants, coffeeshops, shopping centers, hotels, airports, train stations or other places where people congregate. Ultimately they'll be on planes and some trains. A huge number of public places will provide WLAN broadband access to the Internet--you'll be able to sit and check email or surf the web; public WLANs will become the true wireless Internet.

So where does this leave 3G data networking? It looks like 3G will be appropriate for a different class of devices and data applications. To effectively read a website or compose email requires a laptop or PDA larger and heaver, and with less battery life than a typical cellphone.

In contrast, many mobile data applications can be tailored for smaller/lighter devices more closely resembling cellphones, and will require minimal keyboard entry. These data-enabled cellphones should also be much simpler and easier to operate than a laptop or PDA; they will permit download of a small number of applications selected by the user.

Such applications and services can be tailored to the characteristics of these mobile devices. For example, built-in cameras will permit users to exchange photos during a voice conversation; photos or short videos may be included in multimedia messaging services. Mobile wireless providers have identified many types of applications for which they believe customers will pay, beyond today's popular downloading of new ringtones. These include games, streaming audio/video content, transactions and many information services. Given the size of the mobile wireless user market, data applications represent an immense revenue opportunity if done right.

A key differentiator for 3G data applications is location awareness; applications will be able to leverage the network's knowledge of where the user is located. While many people fear that this will result in location-aware "spam"--e.g., unsolicited advertisements from local merchants--there are also many useful applications.

For example, users could search for the nearest business offering a particular product or service, get directions to a merchant location or find the nearest restaurants of a particular type or chain. Location information also could be combined with real-time updates or status, such as traffic information. Your phone, linked via Bluetooth to your car's

Post  40523  by  Arkural       Reply
Rant 1-You CAN NOT beat WS, period! I don't care how much dough you and all of your friends ‘n family might have, even all the money here/RB if tallied, you can't beat 'em. The chips at this table are extremely over weighted against you if you play to beat the dealer, better to track next to or right behind ‘em. What you can do is refine your own sense of counter-intuitive thinking in a psychological panorama of mind games extraordinaire. This could help but then it is the question whether or not your interpretation is accurate.
The mkt could care less about what fad is next, only that as long as there will be one so much the better, if not, the mkt will event one. Why? BECAUSE……….the purpose of this mkt is to RECYCLE MONEY and in the process the odds are in large favour as to the leverage the king-pins have relative to the wee folk, it does not matter how or why this is, so long as the ratio remains and/or increases. Hence , this is why wee folk stay wee and pursue dangling carrots extravagantly painted out on various shi-shi templates that often include (linear) numerical portrayals of this ‘n that in previous histories. This along with, the fact the Jone's next door did well in the mkt doesn’t take away from those, thinking; if they did it, maybe we can too'. Heck maybe we can hit the brass ring too. Besides, so called investing in the mkt has now, a proven track record of increasing value of funds applied, measured over several decades.
The little clause, that says, past performance dot dot dot, is thee legal protective ‘irresponsibility clause’.

Post  40524  by  spirare       Reply
Dollar Index Cash (NYBOT:DXY0)
a bounce back, but LT trend is down...

Current Price of Gpld

(Voluntary Disclosure: Position- Long; ST Rating- Strong Buy; LT Rating- Strong Buy)

Post  40525  by  Arkural       Reply
Sanm-Decomp-just a hunch but it might see 4.25. eom

Post  40526  by  spirare       Reply
Lower lows and lower highs...
well, beware l@@k its falling off the cliff...

Current Price of Gold

(Voluntary Disclosure: Position- Long; ST Rating- Strong Buy; LT Rating- Strong Buy)

Post  40527  by  spirare       Reply

Well, a fast @@ telling me a clear LT down...

Current Price of Gold

(Voluntary Disclosure: Position- Long; ST Rating- Strong Buy; LT Rating- Strong Buy)

Post  40528  by  spirare       Reply
Reuters/CRB Index Cash (NYBOT:CRY0)

CRB, is like a commodity basket; of something like
a 30 futures average, if my memo isn't heywire,
correct me if wrong!

Well, CRB tells me the prices going higher, so
if the grains, meat, metals going higher*^*^*^*^*^
we got the inflation back, it going higher*^*^*^*^*^

Current Price of Gold

(Voluntary Disclosure: Position- Long; ST Rating- Strong Buy; LT Rating- Strong Buy)

Post  40530  by  pmcw       Reply
From GWB in Waco - Very much on topic!

"In order to make sure the economy grows, we must bring the promise of broadband technology to millions of Americans. My administration is promoting investment in broadband," Bush said. "But government at all levels should remove hurdles that slow the pace of deployment."

Regards, pmcw

Post  40532  by  tinljhtkh       Reply
Short-term unsecured debt opportunity?

CNBC just noted that (UAL) United Air Lines unsecured debt is trading at 5.25 cents on the dollar.

Here is the deal as I see it!

UAL has about 2 billion dollars in the bank. They will owe around 900 million in a debt payment, I think in September or October. They have no CEO. They are losing about a million dollars a day. They also have about a half billion in deferred salary that they owe their employees. I don't know if the half billion is in addition to the 2 billion that they have in cash, or if it reduces the cash to 1.5 billion! The machinists contend that the company can tap into this .5 billion dollar fund.

The company is 55 percent employee owned and the current battle is between the machinists union, who contends that UAL needs to make structural changes, and the company's board of directors, two of whom are company employees. This group can block any decision by the board, or at least some seem to think so. If UAL goes into BK it will also be easier to get a new CEO in place!

I think that it may be a game of chicken, but that's just my opinion! The decisions about UAL going into BK have to be made by mid-September, so they have some time to strut around!

My question is this--is this unsecured debt a good short term buy at 5 cents on the dollar? If so, can somebody look up the symbol on it, or tell the rest of us how to go about a purchase?

I do not own it now, but I promised to help with investments when ever I saw an opportunity! The down-side on this investment is not very great, but it would be very speculative! I would welcome a discussion on this subject, either generally or specifically!

I AM NOT ENDORSING THIS INVESTMENT, JUST CALLING SOMETHING TO THE BOARDS ATTENTION! Sorry to "shout" but I want that last part to be perfectly clear! An investment here would be your chocolate chip money for next week! Those who look into this need to be aware that US Air declared bk this week and American went into a major reorganization the next day!

Anyone who invests in this would lose it all if UAL declares BK, and I'm no real expert on this sort of investment! This debt is totaly unsecured by any assets that UAL owns and the stock itself is trading at about 2-2.5 bucks!




Post  40533  by  Arkural       Reply
pmcw-Xico-Please expound on this a bit,if you care to do so: "...a solution for a neural net memory storage device..."

Post  40536  by  Arkural       Reply
Lnux-jefbas-A while back we had an exchange on it. Do you have anything to say/add about them currently.

Post  40538  by  pmcw       Reply
Ark - Neural Net Computing or Why I like XICO

Back in the late 1980's I was working with Carlos Tapang, former INTC designer, and his new company, Synaptic Solutions, on a potential design for the B-52 Center of Gravity program. The B-52 has huge fuel tanks in the wings and body and they were trying to stabilize the weight distribution to enable the plane to be flown more comfortably at very low altitudes (200'). Due to the fact that the ordinance weight varied with how the plane was equipped and what had been spent plus the complication of fuel usage and distribution among the tanks, it was a rather daunting challenge.

I thought one potential approach was AI (artificial intelligence) which could be implemented via either hardware or software. This was a bit before DSP were mainstream and analog computing was getting some serious attention. In my research, I found Carlos and his start up company in Oregon and we began to discuss the application.

His product used a analog memory that essentially stored the analog voltage in capacitors. His scheme was called Sleep Refresh Memory. This is kind of how a DRAM works as opposed to a SRAM (Dynamic versus Static). Capacitors are inherently leaky (the voltage stored leaks) and therefore need to be refreshed if they are to be expected to be accurate. This was obviously a core weakness for Carlos' system.

His computer had a second weakness in that it used common analog multiplexers to simulate the synaptic connections between neurons. This is very much how the human brain works. We have neurons that store micro-volt analog voltages and synaptic connections running between the neurons.

Synaptic connections can be either strong or weak in both the brain and in an analog computer. In the brain, electro-chemical reactions simply (hey, right) establish multiple synaptic routes to strengthen the path. In a computer, one can either take this route or use lower resistance paths to strengthen connections. It is, of course, also practical to use a combination of both. The problem with using standard multiplexers in this application is that they reset (don't hold their position) when power is removed. Combining this with the fact that the capacitors would also rapidly leak voltage when power was lost made the system pretty unreliable.

Since I had been associated with XICO for roughly four years prior to coming across this application, I knew XICO's technology very well. The founders of XICO invented the NOV-RAM (non-volatile Random Access Memory) while working for INTC in the 1970's. INTC had little interest in pursuing the technology so they bought the rights and formed XICO. Rather than using the typical thin oxide technology (FLOTOX) used by all other PROM (Programmable Read Only Memory) manufacturers they developed a textured gate thick oxide technology to hold the non-volatile memory voltage in their EEPROM (Electronically Erasable) memory cells.

There are a variety of failure modes in a EEPROM cell. The major failure modes of thin oxide are voltage leakage and oxide breakdown. In a thick oxide cell failure is usually caused by electrons getting trapped in the oxide between the gates and thereby repelling future electron travel. However, leakage is seldom if ever a problem. This lead me to the conclusion that XICO might be able to store a very well defined analog voltage in a cell and not worry about even the slightest leakage.

I checked with a scientist at XICO and he found my question interesting. He responded within a couple of days and said he felt the cell could hold a charge of roughly eight bits resolution (one part in 256) and maybe 12 bits (one part in 4096). (Note: Each time one adds a bit of resolution they double the resolution.) From what I've heard XICO say recently, I'll bet the resolution of the new PVR's (Programmable Voltage References) they soon release will be significantly better than this.

I presented the idea of an analog memory to sales and marketing and how it could be used to build a number of analog parts. XICO management, still not realizing FLASH EPROM's were about to eat their lunch, decided that sticking with the EEPROM game was their best course. Of course, this finally changed when Lou DiNardo joined XICO and the rest, as they say, will soon be history.

Regards, pmcw

PS: There's far too much money available for XICO in the existing analog markets for them to explore the uncharted neural net computing markets. However, some day, far in the future, that might change.

Post  40563  by  Arkural       Reply
lk-Here is a good example of a 'W'.

Post  40564  by  Arkural       Reply
Point n' Figure...

No, not the dog and cat names, this chart:$INDU,PWTA[PA][DA][F!3!!]&pref=G

This is begining to look a little encouraging for longs.

Post  40566  by  lkorrow       Reply
Thanks, Ark, that is a very distinct one. Speaking of oil, it looks like a good bet (not to mention retail today!).

Dow 10000!

Post  40567  by  Userisme       Reply
Arkural: Absolutely spot on. My son went to a training course with a fellow who previously worked for a WS brokerage. The tricks he told my son WS gets up to are staggering.My tip is ignore what they say and watch they do.

Post  40568  by  Arkural       Reply
UAL, comment via today's email:

Thursday, August 15, 2002 6:08 PM

A Special Message From United


United Airlines has been in the news lately as we, and the
rest of the airline industry, grapple with how to respond to
the dramatic changes in our business environment as a result
of the economic slowdown. Because of your continued loyalty,
I wanted to share important steps our company is taking to
ensure that United continues to meet your needs in the years
to come.

Our efforts in the past 11 months have been focused on
bringing our costs in line with reduced revenues. While we
have made considerable progress, this week we announced we
are changing the company's business plan to build a stronger
and more competitive company. With the improvements, our
goal is to ensure we get the significantly broader, deeper
and longer-term cost savings we need to compete given the
new realities of the aviation industry.

Over the next 30 days we are intensifying our cost-cutting
efforts and presenting new proposals to our suppliers, union
leadership and employees. In the event we are unable to
reach agreement with our stakeholders on necessary cost
reductions, we are simultaneously preparing for the
potential of a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing this fall. While
no decision has yet been made, we would consider
reorganization under Chapter 11 to ensure continued normal
business operations while we restructure our company.

Regardless of how we implement our cost reductions, you
should be confident that we will CONTINUE TO FLY A SAFE AND
RELIABLE AIRLINE, and you will continue to reap the benefits
of Mileage Plus(R) membership. WE WILL HONOR MILES PREVIOUSLY

We are committed to building a stronger and more competitive
company that meets your needs today and for years to come.
We will keep you informed of our progress going forward. In
the meantime, on behalf of the 84,000 employees of United,
thank you for your continued loyalty and support.


Chris Bowers
Senior Vice President
Marketing and Sales

Post  40570  by  Arkural       Reply
UIM-I wish I could tell you the things I saw on the 'floor', many, many yrs ago.

Post  40571  by  Arkural       Reply
lk-Oih-Yea, I'd watch it anyway. eom