|A compilation of this board's financial/economic posts From 41660 to 41730
|Post 41660 by maldinero OT: Dirtied by Iraqi oil|
|Post 41661 by Decomposed OT: Table ON TOPIC SUMMARY Sep 9, 2002|
Post 41662 by Briguy Reply
Warstud, I hear you! That's fine. You are entitled to your opinion. But I'm averaged in at $28.21 for 541 shares and feeling very good about my investment right now. Heck, I even did better than Bill Gates, who bought 1 million shares of Home Depot...
Post 41663 by Warstud Reply
I'm glad you can take a disagreement like a man, without calling me an idiot or ?, like someone else here does. Although I wouldn't expect a big return on investment with HD, I wouldn't expect the bottom to fall out either. The Bill Gates buying is encouraging though. But I have learned my lesson about buying stocks that report record earnings because that usually spells an end to there growth rate. Speaking of Bill Gates, he recently upped his stake in PKS also, so you may want to look into that one as well.
Post 41664 by Warstud Reply
Okay, I was wrong..
They EXPECT to show a small profit..but nothing to get exited about.
Ford Motor expects to post profit in Q3 (F) 10.80 +0.60: Announces that it expects to post a "small profit" in Q3, vs the consensus est of a loss of $0.10; co also reaffirmed its intention to report a modest profit for the full year, vs consensus of $0.29.
Post 41665 by Warstud Reply
Briguy..One more thing.
I would like to share a few things with you regarding your investments. If your interested you can contact me at:
Post 41666 by clo Reply
DNA, trading lower by nearly 7.00 this morning. clo
Genentech Avastin breast cancer study disappoints
SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO, Calif., Sept 9 (Reuters) - Biotech
firm Genentech Inc. on Monday reported disappointing
results of a pivotal-stage trial of its experimental drug
Avastin combined with another medicine to treat relapsed
metastatic breast cancer patients.
Avastin is designed to inhibit the formation of new blood
vessels to tumors, thereby inhibiting tumor growth.
Genentech said a Phase III study of Avastin breast cancer
patients did not meet its primary efficacy endpoint of
progression-free survival. The trial measured how long it took
before a patient's cancer got worse, rather than whether the
drug affects survival.
The study involved 462 women with metastatic breast cancer
who received Avastin with Xeloda or Xeloda alone. The overall
response did achieve statistical significance, but did not
translate to progression-free survival or 12-month survival.
Xeloda is an approved cancer drug from Roche Holding Ltd.
Genentech said it was encouraged by the overall safety
profile observed in the study, and looks forward to data from a
Phase III trial in colorectal cancer, the lead indication in a
broad late stage clinical development program with Avastin.
((Jean Scheidnes, New York Equities Newsdesk (646)
*** end of story ***
Post 41667 by pmcw Reply
Bri, I share your opinion on HD. What they've done is simply amazing and, in reality, just because they have done so well isn't an indication they can't continue. However, it is easy to be skeptical based on the old "too good to be true" syndrome. This, combined with some misplaced fundamental reads, seems to be WS' objection.
I have to take issue with WS on the premise that HD will lose steam when the new construction boom starts. I seriously doubt that new construction is a big business for them. They have a reasonable pro-shop, but I see retail as their bread and butter and the pro work they do is mostly (from my perspective) remodel. This could actually work to their favor - particularly as they flush out their EXPO strategy.
Right now HD is a cash making machine. Their cash flow statement is a thing of beauty and their balance sheet is outstanding for a retail company growing at this rate. They are a poster child for a well managed company. Their employees love the management and it shows. I love to visit the stores just to see all the happy employees (new ones have trouble finding enough talent, but they're at least polite when they screw up). On the down side, experienced shoppers realize there's certain things they should buy elsewhere (many wood products, higher end versions of virtually all materials and pro-quality tools - they also are pretty limited in fasteners). However, 999 out of 1,000 shoppers will never know. The only other down side is a Softie boy is buying in. None of the folks from Redmond have a very good investing record.
Bottom Line on HD: Hold tight and buy more on deep dips.
However, PKS is a totally different story. I think this train has already wrecked. I suggested to WS that he think twice about PKS when he posted about it here on 8/21 it was trading at $5.15. The following post contains my comments:
Post 41668 by clo Reply
Question: HD Vs. Sears:
With all the talk about HD, I'm wondering if S wouldn't be a better choice?
They pay a better dividend, lower P/E, along with their other stats.
If the housing is strong, many folk will need new appliances along with tools that have a lifetime guarantee...
Wouldn't Sears offer more upside?
Thanks for your opinions. clo
Sears, Roebuck & Co. Ticker: S Page 1 of 10
Complete Financials: June 2002 Exchange NYSE
FY END DEC
ISSUE DATA (09/06/02) PER SHARE DATA RATIOS
Price $ 44.60 EPS (TTM) $ 4.61 P/E (TTM) 9.67
52W High $ 59.90 Div. Rate $ 0.92 Yield 2.06 %
52W Low $ 29.90 Book Value $ 19.29 Price/Book 2.31
Shrs Out 315.95 Mil Cash $ 3.23 ROE (TTM) 24.75 %
Float 314.00 Mil Rev (TTM) $ 127.12 ROA (TTM) 3.37 %
Mon. Vol 58.74 Mil Curr. Ratio 2.20
Beta 0.63 LT Dbt/Eqty 3.34
BRIEF: S is a multi-line retailer that provides a wide
array of merchandise and services through retail, service,
credit, corporate and international segments. For the 26
weeks ended 6/02, revenues rose 1% to $19.18B. Net income
before acct. change totalled $738M vs. a loss of $21M.
Revenues reflect sales increases in home appliances.
Earnings also reflect improved gross margins with hardlines,
softlines, Sears Repair Services and Hardware Stores.
The Home Depot, Inc. Ticker: HD Page 1 of 10
Complete Financials: July 2002 Exchange NYSE
FY END JAN
ISSUE DATA (09/06/02) PER SHARE DATA RATIOS
Price $ 33.25 EPS (TTM) $ 1.49 P/E (TTM) 22.26
52W High $ 52.60 Div. Rate $ 0.20 Yield 0.60 %
52W Low $ 26.10 Book Value $ 8.59 Price/Book 3.87
Shrs Out 2,356.15 Mil Cash $ 2.52 ROE (TTM) 19.29 %
Float 2,261.90 Mil Rev (TTM) $ 24.30 ROA (TTM) 12.72 %
Mon. Vol 310.03 Mil Curr. Ratio 1.57
Beta 1.31 LT Dbt/Eqty 0.07
BRIEF: The Home Depot owns and operates 1,404 do-it-yourself
warehouse retail stores offering building materials, home
improvement products and related furnishings. For the 26
weeks ended 08/04/02, net sales rose 14% to $30.56B. Net
income rose 31% to $2B. Revenues reflect the opening of new
stores and an increase in comparable store-for-store
sales due to strong sales in kitchen, bath and plumbing.
Earnings also reflect improved operating efficiencies.
Post 41669 by pmcw Reply
clo, I personally like S for hand tools (non-power) and appliances, but the shopping experience is not even on the same planet at HD. S stores are also the epitome of inefficiency and their customer service is mediocre at best. These aspects show clearly on their balance sheet (loaded with debt and dropping net tangible asset value) as well as on their cash flow statement. I would love to love S, but as an investment they don't compare to HD. Rule One: Management Matters!
Post 41670 by pmcw Reply
On April 18, 2001 I suggested buying STAA at a bit over $2 and then called a sell (dang, I actually do get a sell right ;o) for roughly a 70% profit.
Last week (the morning of 9/6) I suggested playing it again at the open of $3.05. In this directionless market, it is up about 10%. I'm looking for at least $4.25 before I turn it again.
STAA management is VERY strong and I like their game plan. See post 41492 for recent developments.
Post 41671 by pmcw Reply
Ark, Did you get more EMC when it dipped under $6 yesterday. I've been posting for months that I felt it would fall there this week. I think they're going to find traction within a few months.
You did see that CSCO ended their distribution arrangement with DELL didn't you. This means CSCO must feel threatened by DELL's new direct sales presence into the small business router and switch market (mostly layer 2). It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Regards, pmcw
Post 41672 by pmcw Reply
For the eighth straight month, the regional survey of manufacturing done by the Kansas City Federal Reserve shows improvement. Year over year, it is down slightly, but the optimism index (the measurement of the difference between those seeing improvement less those seeing contraction six months out) now sits at 25 (zero is neutral).
If this is coupled with the fact that the inventory to sales ratio sits very near a ten year low (the ten year low was hit a couple of months ago, these signs are very bullish for MANUFACTURING (note: this is not service). True, many manufacturing jobs are shifting over seas. That's simply a product of high US labor costs. If these jobs didn't move our manufacturing companies would go broke. This shift has lead to a mortgage delinquency rate not seen for forty years (a product of a recession). This will lead to lend practices being tightened (this is already happening). Fundamentally, these are healthy purging events.
As I've said before - we need to put people back to work in the cap/ex sector and we need to do this now! The trend is moving very slowly in that direction, but government stimulus is what we need. Write your representatives and senators and tell them if they want your vote (this year, in two years or four years) they need to move a stimulus package to the front of the line. Getting cap/ex spending moving will reduce reorganizations, bankruptcies (personal and commercial), put people back to work and lead to healthy non-durable goods sales. Once this happens, optimism will return and so will the equity markets. Without it, well, you see what we have today.........
Link to Manfacturing study:
Post 41673 by clo Reply
pmcw: HD Vs. S
"Rule One: Management Matters!"
We are in accord!
My experience with Sears in my area has been the same, poor customer service.
However, returns are much fewer I think than HD?
Merchandise in our local HD's is treated haphazardly, requiring return visits, which is frustrating & time consuming and must take its toll on their bottom line.
Besides that issue, I prefer the layout of the Sears stores.
HD builds their shelves much to high, I think it becomes a danger. So, I don't go into the store.
I wonder if this is a sex difference/preference?
I wonder if there have been any polls taken?
heehee, there I go again, at least you know I'm not only into political polls!
Thanks for your opinion. ;)) clo
Post 41674 by lkorrow Reply
roof, I'm way behind in catching up on Table posts, but have to say this was a great one! I picked up some KRY on the retracement yesterday. What a call! Think you're right about the acquisition target, should be interesting.
Post 41675 by Decomposed Reply
re: Bill Gates' investments
Just a reminder: Microsoft's biggest losses in recent years (and they've been huge) have all been a result of lousy investments. I'm not sure I'd place too much faith in a stock just because Bill likes it.
You'd probably be wiser to pursue something Bill's buddy WARREN likes.
Post 41676 by Decomposed Reply
I'm not sure if this article has already been posted. My apologies if it has:
Crystallex and Venezuela to Develop Las Cristinas
Company Welcomes Government Announcement
TORONTO, Sept. 8 — CRYSTALLEX INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (Amex:KRY) President and CEO Marc J. Oppenheimer welcomed the selection of Crystallex by the Venezuelan government Friday to develop Las Cristinas, believed to be one of the largest undeveloped gold projects in Latin America and the world.
As a result of this decision, all legal requirements including title, possession, and mining rights will be brought together so that development of the Las Cristinas ore-body can take place.
"This is a historic moment for our Company and our shareholders," said Mr. Oppenheimer. "We are pleased to have been selected and look forward to beginning work on the project. We also salute our shareholders who have steadfastly stood by our Company as we patiently sought to obtain possession of this property in a legitimate and lasting way."
Late Friday in Caracas, Venezuela's state industrial holding company, Corporacion Venezolana de Guayana (CVG) announced that its Directors had "approved the signing of an operating contract with the Canadian company Crystallex for the development of the Las Cristinas gold deposit." In a statement released following the Board meeting, CVG President Francisco Rangel Gomez said Crystallex was chosen to operate the project because it offered the best prospect for a rapid development and start-up of the mine.
"The selection of Crystallex to develop Las Cristinas acknowledges that the company has the experience, capability and the long-term commitment to Venezuela to build a sustainable project that will benefit the Venezuelan economy and in particular the people of Bolivar State where Las Cristinas is located," added Mr. Oppenheimer. "The CVG is a large and important Venezuelan government corporation. We are very proud to be developing this property with the CVG."
Crystallex started mining operations in Venezuela's Kilometre 88 in 1994 and is the only international company to have constructed and operated a producing industrial mine at Kilometre 88. Today, the Company has operations in all three of Venezuela's major gold producing districts and has invested more than US$120 million in Bolivar State where the Cristinas concessions are located. The Company is currently mining gold and, at the same time, developing two new mines in this region.
Crystallex International Corporation is an emerging intermediate gold mining company operating as well as developing new mines in Venezuela and Uruguay. Crystallex's strategy for growth is to develop its portfolio of producing properties as well as to diversify geographically by investing in producing or near-production projects and by exploring properties of merit in other areas.
On Behalf of the Board:
Marc J. Oppenheimer, President & CEO
Visit us on the Internet: http://www.crystallex.com
Note: This news release may contain certain "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the United States Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, included in this release, including, without limitation, statements regarding potential mineralization and reserves, exploration results, and future plans and objectives of Crystallex, are forward-looking statements that involve various risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate, and actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the Company's expectations are disclosed under the heading "Risk Factors" and elsewhere in documents filed from time to time with The Toronto Stock Exchange, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission and other regulatory authorities.
The Toronto Stock Exchange has not reviewed this release and does not accept responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this news release.
OT: An interesting question
Post 41678 by CHILAR4567 Reply
spirare, you made me cry twice today.
Post 41679 by pmcw Reply
Router question answered. Linksys 4 port 10/100 Ethernet LAN plus IEEE-802.11b for $120. Is that a no-brainer or what? The cost difference to add 802.11 was $70. A PCMCIA 802.11 card for my laptop is $50. Internet where I want it and when I want it - on the deck, in front of the TV, in the kitchen or virtually anywhere else in the house.
So what if INTC puts the MAC and baseband functions of 802.11 inside the PC chip set. The point here is that 802.11 will be in so many other things that the INTC portion of the chip-set market will be only a drop in the bucket. By making 802.11 that common, INTC will drive two applications for every one the take. ISIL is the 800 pound gorilla in the wirefree market and has the tools to rule the jungle for years!
Post 41680 by Arkural Reply
pmcw-Emc-Yep!, I thought of you too!. :-) And do recall the Staa trade we did a while back, thx for the tip. Nice trades in Aol of late.
OT: Iranian Student Movement Calls for 9/11 Rememb
Post 41682 by gjwigginto Reply
OK, I'll bite:
"point out where TJ took some significant liberties in his essay."
Post 41683 by pmcw Reply
Look at his allocation tables for pooled and non-pooled acquisitions and then carefully read his terms outlining the deal. There is a way one could end up with the tables as they are shown, but it would not be a typical circumstance and an honest representation would cover it when describing the deal.
If you don't find it let me know and I'll go into some more detail. The sad part is, unlike Buffett and Gross who needed to distort reality to make their points, TJ didn't; his point has merit based solely on fact.
Post 41684 by pmcw Reply
IDNX is probably surging for a couple of reasons. One was discussed here when it was trading for mid-6's.
The other is obviously 9/11 sympathy - or is it. DKEY, another company in the industry can't seem to get any traction.
Anyway, if you're a strong IDNX holder, I feel they have a pretty good chance of going places, but do so knowing that their current valuation is very rich. If you're a trader, today might be a good time to take profits and look later for a re-entry opportunity. Of course, you could take a softer position and just hedge. Calls expiring later this year are fetching nice premiums.
My choice has been the latter. I own some pretty cheap shares and I feel IDNX will be a big player in a rapidly growing market, but that they will likely pull back before they make a huge move forward. Regards, pmcw
Post 41685 by lkorrow Reply
Here's one to think on for all those figuring consumer debt's going to bring us down. Astoria Federal reduced guidance (and their stock's getting clobbered) because mortgage holders are pre-paying their mortages! How about that, doomsayers. :-)
p. s. I had been getting those Daily Reckoning free email newsletters. I dumped it last week, it's not worth the "paper" it's printed on! jmho.
Post 41686 by StockmanI7 Reply
Another reason for the surge. INS is testing a system for the next 20 days and at the end of that period will award a contract to either Identix or Crossmatch (or maybe a combination of the two). The first phase of the project will cost between $50 and $100 million.
The end of the 20 days should come right about the end of Sept. Watch the stock around that time for early indications of who won the contract.
(Voluntary Disclosure: Position- Long; ST Rating- Buy; LT Rating- Buy)
Post 41687 by spirare Reply
Madman Satan Saddam's Lurking Doomsday Weapon
Dave Eberhart, NewsMax
Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2002
An estimated 500 million people perished of smallpox in the twentieth century. This staggering figure overwhelms the 320 million deaths that resulted from all the century?s catastrophic wars, raging influenza in the 1918 pandemic, and AIDS. Chillingly, experts opine that Iraq?s dictator Saddam Hussein has the deadly scourge poised as a weapon - in its most virulent and deadly form, "blackpox.?
Opposition Iraqi National Congress leader Ahmad Chalabi recently warned the world: "Saddam has advanced chemical weapons, he has advanced biological weapons, and he has produced and engineered biological weapons which contain a combination of viruses such as smallpox and Ebola [blackpox].?
Chalabi?s revelations to the Western media included the admonition that Saddam is "working very hard ... to position people and to move with biological and chemical terrorism across the important centers of the world.?
Not according to America?s resident expert, Dr. Ken Alibek, defector and former assistant director of Russia?s intensive bio-warfare program, who says that on his watch Russia and Iraq both were hard at work on a recombinant virus combining smallpox and Ebola. The disease is called blackpox or Ebolapox.
According to Alibek, the resulting contagion is hardy, can be aerosolized, and is 100 percent lethal. Furthermore, there is no known vaccine for prevention and no treatment.
Alibek added grisly details. "In a blackpox infection, the skin does not develop blisters. Instead, the skin becomes dark all over. Blood vessels leak, resulting in severe internal hemorrhaging?. As a weapon, the Ebolapox would give the hemorrhages and high mortality rate of Ebola virus, which would give you a blackpox, plus the very high contagiousness of smallpox.?
There is some potential confusion in literature about blackpox. In addition to the hybrid smallpox-Ebola strain described by Alibek, the term blackpox is also used in association with a massive terror assault of garden-variety smallpox.
As expert Richard Preston told Congress: "There?s a bloody, hemorrhagic form of smallpox, which looks like the crash and bleed-out that happens with Ebola virus. Blistering and bleeding occur inside the body, in the stomach and intestines? This is called blackpox.?
Preston added, "In a military release of smallpox, the victims would be receiving extremely high doses of smallpox, far higher than in a natural outbreak, and we can suspect that many of the victims would be developing blackpox and having smallpox bleed-outs. Blackpox is even more contagious than so-called ordinary smallpox.?
Preston summed up with a telling warning: "Many people have the mistaken idea that smallpox is like an exaggerated form of chicken pox. It isn?t ... One human with smallpox can infect 20 or 30 more people.?
In either case of blackpox, one is dealing with a weapon with the potential to give new meaning to man?s historic inhumanity to man. And if there is a person on the planet with the will and instinct to obtain it and use it, that person is Saddam Hussein.
The Past is Prologue
Smallpox aside, United Nations records show that Iraq has in the past churned out more than 22,000 gallons of anthrax and 100,000 gallons of botulinum toxin, one of the world?s most lethal poisons. In 1999, weapons inspectors concluded that Iraq had successfully concealed almost 160 bombs and more than two dozen Scud missile warheads filled with anthrax.
Despite victory in the Gulf War and the subsequent flights of inspections, not even the ubiquitous Scott Ritter maintains that there was ever a clean sweep of the killer arsenal.
And the concealment continues to this day, according to reports. Saddam?s current modus operandi: keeping his bio-weapons and scientists on the go in a train of mobile van laboratories. The plan: use the contagions not to attack directly but to supply to a front terrorist group to launch against the U.S. and Israel.
As to Saddam?s unholy fascination with smallpox as a weapon, the circumstantial evidence abounds.
During the Gulf War, U.S. intelligence officers uncovered that many Iraqi soldiers had been vaccinated against the disease. Because of medical successes against the disease, vaccination is no longer routine. Even in the U.S., the vast majority of the population received immunizations decades ago ? immunizations no longer considered safeguards.
As far back as In 1994, U.N. inspector teams discovered an industrial sized freeze-drier at the State Establishment for Marketing Drugs and Medical Appliances. The machine was labeled "Smallpox Machine? in Arabic.
Iraqi officials insisted that the machine was not for drying the smallpox virus, but for drying the vaccinia virus, a component of smallpox vaccine. The problem, however, with accepting such an explanation is the history of Iraq?s subterfuge when it comes to its special weapons.
For instance, Iraq vehemently denied supporting any kind of germ warfare program until 1995 ? and then only after the cat was let out of the bag by Hussein Kamel, Hussein?s brother-in-law, who defected to Jordan with dramatic evidence about Saddam?s sophisticated germ warfare program.
Russian sources aside, experts say Iraq may have obtained its original supply of the virus from a natural outbreak of the disease that swept Iraq in 1971 and 1972, according to "Smallpox and its Eradication,? a publication of the World Health Organization.
And as Preston explained to Congress, once you have the raw material, the rest is not rocket science:
"Smallpox virus is easy to make in large quantities. I?m not going say exactly how to do it, but basically you can grow it in glass bottles the size of wine bottles. A room full of these bottles constitutes a national biological-weapons laboratory. Virtually any nation can have such a facility, and hide it easily. All you need is a master seed strain and a few Ph.D. scientists and perhaps $200,000 worth of equipment, which can be bought on the open market.?
Read more on this subject in related Hot Topics:
War on Terrorism
The victims demand it.
The families demand it.
America demands it.
Freedom demands it.
THIS is what our Nation is responding to.
Please remember that in the difficult times ahead.
Post 41688 by clo Reply
lkorrow, the thrifts.
Since I'm long WM I've been following the AF news. What really hits me is WHY folks would prepay morgage payments when the interest is sooo low?
Why not pay their credit cards off?
This just doesn't seem correct to me...
I could understand their lowered earnings due to lowered interest rates, but they lose me after that..
Just my .02... clo
The reason WM & the other thrifts are trading lower is due to AF.
Astoria Financial Corporation Expects Lower EPS Growth For the Third Quarter
and Full Year; New Guidance for the 2002 3q is $0.72 - $0.74 per Share and for
the Full Year is $2.85 - $2.90 per Share
LAKE SUCCESS, N.Y., Sep 10, 2002 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Astoria
Financial Corporation (NYSE: AF) announced today that it expects third quarter
diluted earnings per share ("EPS") to be lower than the current First Call and
IBES consensus estimates of $0.77 per share. The Company indicated that,
assuming interest rates and mortgage loan refinance activity remain unchanged,
it is likely that third quarter EPS will be in a range of $0.72 - $0.74 per
share, which represents growth of between 20% - 23% over the 2001 third quarter.
The Company attributed the lower EPS growth to the impact of the sustained low
level of interest rates, particularly after the decline during the summer, that,
among other things, is resulting in historically high mortgage loan and
mortgage-backed securities ("MBS") prepayments and low yielding reinvestment
opportunities. The Company also noted that if interest rates and cash flow
continue at current levels for the remainder of the year, that fourth quarter
EPS will likely be within the third quarter EPS range announced today. With
these assumptions, EPS guidance for 2002 would range from $2.85 - $2.90 per
share, down from previous guidance of $2.95 - $3.00 per share. The lower
earnings range would result in growth of 21% - 23% over 2001 EPS.
Commenting on the current outlook, George L. Engelke, Jr., Astoria's Chairman,
President and Chief Executive Officer, stated, "While we are continuing to
benefit from lower interest rates on the liability side of the balance sheet,
cash flows from mortgage loan and MBS prepayments have recently accelerated
dramatically, exceeding our previous estimates. The low level of interest rates
and extraordinarily high levels of cash flow have slowed the growth of our net
interest margin and EPS. We are now expecting our 2002 third quarter margin to
be up 9% - 11% over the 2001 third quarter and up 6% - 8% for the full year. On
a linked quarter basis, the margin will be somewhat lower. Clearly, any modest
increase in interest rates, which are currently at historic lows, will improve
our earnings outlook."
Asset Quality Remains Excellent
The Company noted that asset quality remains very high with no adverse trends
being noted. At August 31, 2002, non-performing assets totaled $31.5 million and
represented 0.14% of total assets, below the levels reported at June 30, 2002.
Post 41689 by lkorrow Reply
OCU, Aluminum! Anything to reduce cost. Also a nemesis in car engines and pots and pans. I saw a tv show that spoke of the bomber (aircraft) striking the Empire State building. People on the other side of the building never felt it. Once again, they don't make them like they used to.
OT: ocd - Give our regards to Elvis while
OT: Spirare, after reading that one has to ask the
Post 41692 by CHILAR4567 Reply
spirare, thanks for the post.
Hope you don't mind that I shared it with
OT: If you are somehow implying that the WTC was c
Post 41694 by pacemakernj Reply
Roof, MSDW gold update: I told you and Linda the charts were looking interesting. This from MSDW;
On August 28th, in the daily equity report we discussed the potential breakout on the one point chart of the XAU, which would occur at 69. Not only did we hit 69, which broke a triple top, we have now worked as high as 76 on the chart, pushing through initial resistance in the 70 area, and now testing important resistance which shows up nicely on the chart. (Not Shown)
On this longer term 2 point chart of the XAU the downtrend resistance at 78 is the next important price level to watch. A move through this level would certainly validate the longer term price forecasts for gold. Meanwhile, for those with a more near term focus, the December Gold contract (GCZ2) bears watching.
Concurrent with the XAU breakout, the GCZ2 broke through downtrend resistance when moving to 315. Gold has since ramped up dramatically to the 320's and really faces no important overhead supply until the 328-331 area. The price objective of 331 on the GCZ2 corresponds to this resistance level.
Among gold related stocks there are still some interesting plays even at these levels. The precious Metals Bullish Percent Index (a very small sector with only 34 component stocks) is currently at 50% so the field position remains conducive to long plays as well.
Here is a review of some of the more interesting stocks in the sector.
NEM- 29.05 Shares of NEM pulled right back to long term trend line support at 21 and are now testing resistance at 29. A move to 30 would be the first buy signal for this stock since March. Ok for investors to buy on the breakout at 30, otherwise wait for a pullback. Traders can create a .50 chart for a tradeable setup with a more manageable stop loss.
Goldcorp Inc. GG 10.95 Not only are gold stocks beginning to again give buy signals after a period of consolidation, those buy signals are important ones. Witness the breakout in GG, for example. Until Monday shares of GG had not given a buy signal since January. The stock fell back toward the trend line in July, but have since rebounded to break a double top at 11.50. Ok to play the break. Traders use an absolute price or percentage stop with chart support not apparent until the 6.50 level.
MDG Meridian Gold, Inc. 20.15 Shares of MDG were within a hair of breaking through resistance on the chart that dates back to June. Monday's session was good enough to establish a new high anyway, with 21 being the chart breakout. Too extended to play here so look for a pullback to initial support in the 19 area.
BGO Bema Gold 1.39. The .25 point chart lacks activity, so this is a good example of when speeding the chart up can produce a more tradeable chart with levels that are easier to identify. This is a problem common to low priced stocks, and this sector has quite a few of these (KGC, ECO, ASL). On the .05 chart shares of BGO broke out out at 1.30 and are currently testing resistance in the 1.45 area. Ok to buy on weakness. The first sign of trouble is the move below the July lows.
Roof, sorry I could not post the charts but you can easily pull them up and review this T/A against the charts and see what they are talking about. That said I am sure you are aware of all this info but I figured the more positive info on gold we can get the better.
OT: The only reason that we are stopping at Gracel
OT: The 2002 Darwin Awards have been released:
Post 41697 by ljpit Reply
wzup with xico? it's getting very quiet.. a volume of only 14,000 today. less than a tenth of their average volume. is this the silence before the storm?
according to some post @ yahoo Franklin Resources filed today with the SEC that it has increased its ownership of xicor to 17.5% or 4.6M shares, making them by far the largest shareholder.
probably no stocks left for trading, hence the continuously decreasing low volume of late?
Post 41698 by findit Reply
pmcw what is your current opinion of StockerYale? They are at a 52 week low today. No news. I am thinking of adding to my position.
OT: Spirare, some time after the plane went down i
Post 41700 by wilful10 Reply
Clo/pmcw - Re HD:
Your comments about one of my favorites (personally and investment-wise) are noted and appreciated.
Clo - You hit it right on the head; it is a "sex difference/preference" thing. ;-)
HD has altered their "take anything back-no questions asked" policy, after having been burned by waay too many small contractors and home-do-it-yourself guys buying merchandise,, using it - then bringing it back and getting full refunds. That's why the return line is now much longer than previously. Also, due to too much customer theft - many stores have stationed an employee at the exit doors to verify merchandise against check-stand receipts,, ala Sam's Club. I like this.
Re your fear of the high shelves in HD being dangerous - - I was going to make a wise-crack about such an attitude coming from someone surrounded by very high buildings,, but thought better of it. You understand.
PMCW - The current "darling" of the street - LOW - does pose a viable threat. Do you have a handle on the extent of the threat projecting forward 6 months? Are we witnessing an early stage KM/WMT situation? What thinks you?
Post 41701 by uponroof Reply
Linda, I am disappointed in the share action as I believe it should be much higher. Unfortunately 'the announcement' was not enough in itself and the PR effort from KRY was lacking. As this evolves it seems the VZ factor is perhaps the drag. That is to say the courts in VZ are notorious for creating problems.
As much as this appears to be a winning hand, with both KRY and CVG (VZ) being happy pardners, the courts could (longshot) mess up the deal (especially if a loaded samsonite hits the right desk). If KRY receives full title acknowledgement to 4 and 6, from VZ in writing this might alleve the concerns of the overhanging court case. AND...a lot of the concern is baggage from past situations during different administrations which have no bearing at all on circumstances today.
It appears that the project will begin and move forward without further legal distractions, and believe me there have been quite a few to date. Much of it stems from bribery as that is much more accepted as a 'tribute' or 'respect dues' in this part of the world.
Now, we are suffering from the Chavez stigma and the stigma of South American countries in general. If you can see through these legitimate yet superficial concerns in terms of running a business with the backing of the VZ gummint, you should be able to see and pick this as a tremendously undervalued share in a rising gold market. There is literally zero risk at these prices and mucho potential.
The details this week will be very interesting to digest. This stock will be a traders dream no doubt as the truth winds it's way to the surface. I'm long, have not sold one share since averaging in last year at 1.40, and will stay long at least until all the details are out. I do believe things will work out in the favor of KRY regardless of the dangers. The news that VZ is in KRY's corner is enough to pave the road to LC exploitation. KRY has earned the trust of VZ since mining there from 94 on.
Pace, thanks for the MSDW report. No, I was not aware of this info and do appreciate it.
Speaking of new gold bulls.
Walter Murphy of Merrill Lynch just on CNBC:
"...Gold making secular low..turning now
Predicting 450 minimum...850 max over a couple of years..."
Murphy used to be very bearish on gold if I remember correctly.
btw-Suggest if any of you folks are in KRY for the near or long term you email this fellow and request a password for 'KRY Winner's Circle' forum. Quite a few folks there that are regular visitors to VZ, very good TA people, and are really on top of the political situation. All shareholders are welcome for free.
Post 41702 by oldCADuser Reply
I haven't seen that...
"Also, due to too much customer theft - many stores have stationed an employee at the exit doors to verify merchandise against check-stand receipts,, ala Sam's Club. I like this."
...here in SoCal at our local Home Depots. And besides, I wouldn't be caught dead inside of a Sam's Club, but I do shop at Costco and Fry's Electronics where they DO run that receipt check as you approach the front door.
OT: Isn't that like...
OT: Excuse me, I meant Exodus, NOT Genesis.
OT: All you have to do ocd - is to
Post 41706 by garhart Reply
Gotta love this table sometimes, so good to see the humor at times like this.
OT: Remember September 11, But Live by September 1
OT: It's not a liberal verse conservative thing.
OT: Or better yet...
Post 41710 by pmcw Reply
lj, Shhhh, I'm trying to buy and it's getting harder every day. Regards, pmcw
Post 41711 by pmcw Reply
wil, Retailing is out of my line of work. However, I was amazed by HD's strength in cash flow and balance sheet. If I were to invest in this sector I would run a contrast between HD and LOW similar to the one I did on TYC, GE and CSCO at the end of January (maybe first of February). I think it's in the Table Top Posts. In addition to the metrics I reviewed then, I would add (with great importance)same store sales and inventory. I think my aforementioned contrast took into consideration AP and AR, but if not, look there too.
If you go to this trouble you might consider posting your results here for all of us to enjoy.
Post 41712 by pmcw Reply
findit, STKR is certainly tempting, but so are many others. I'm very focused on building large positions in my three focus stocks and I must admit, it's hard to lay off others I see as bargains, but so far so good - just a few traders and some EMC buys outside my focus three.
This certainly doesn't mean my focus stocks should by anyone else's focus stocks. This only means that I feel this is a good time for a focus strategy. To make my list the companies had to be in a position to grow even if we see a second dip recession (growing less likely by the day). As I said, I like STKR from many perspectives, but I don't see them as being solidly in such a position. Of course, they could be and, if they are, that's something I would like to learn.
OT: SPECIAL REPORT ON IRAQ
Post 41714 by pmcw Reply
4:57PM Xilinx reiterates Q2 revenue targets (XLNX) 19.16 +0.77: Sees Q2 revs in the range of $270-$280 mln vs the current Multex consensus estimate of $274.6 mln; sees gross margins ranging from 58-60%.
I believe that's about 20% year over year growth. Hmmm, I forecasted early this year that semi houses would start showing year over year growth in Q3. With gross margins around 60% it looks like pricing power is returning as well. This is at least "semi-good" news. ;o)
Here's a new projection. ISIL will show at least $1.10 in earnings next year. Do you think a company like ISIL deserves a forward P:E of less than 20:1?
OT: People from all over this world died on Septem
Post 41717 by jeffbas Reply
clo, here is how paying off a mortgage works in practice.
The homeowner now has a $100,000 8% mortgage on a house that has gone up in value. He refinances, taking out a $120,000 mortgage at 6%. With this example, he CUTS his monthly payment despite having a higher mortgage, and has $20,000 cash in his pocket. Some of this goes for closing costs, a bunch is available to pay off high interest rate credit card debt (further cutting his monthly payments), and he might have some left over for a home improvement project. That is the real world of dropping interest rates keeping the economy going.
Note that the bank's interest income goes from $8,000 to $7,200 in this example (and to $6,000 if he kept the amount of mortgage the same.) The rates banks are crediting on deposits are so pitiful already that there is much more room for interest earned to drop than interest credited - which is why they are getting squeezed.
Post 41718 by pacemakernj Reply
Roof, keep the KRY updates coming. Your analysis and thoughts are appreciated more than you know. In fact I'll even say this if this baby hits I personally buy you dinner at restaurant you want in NYC. Why aren't we at $3 now? I know you just explained it but we at least have had the best news in a decade at the stock hasn't even caught up to the rest of the gold stocks in performance. It sure is tough hanging on to this one. But I am not giving up now, unless of course the news changes. It has been my impression over the years when someone wants to do business with you they find the reasons why they should. When they don't all the tea in China will not help you close a deal. When you're in, you're and when you're out you're out. IMO, KRY is in. Good Luck. Pace.
Post 41719 by pmcw Reply
jeff, I think you mean mortgage lenders rather than banks. There is about $1.9T in mortgage debt at commercial banks right now. This is a bit more than double what it was ten years ago, but still not what I think you are addressing.
An interesting fact is that the net interest margin at all US banks is actually sitting at a pretty high point right now - roughly 4.3% annualized. This is considerably higher than it was in even 1984 when interest rates were sky high. This is another benefit of low Fed rates and has helped the banking industry absorb some of the insolvency (inefficient debt reorganization). It has also lead commercial banks to report very healthy ROA and ROE during the last few quarters.
Bottom Line: Banking, in spite of all the derivative talk from those who couldn't spell the word a year ago or define it today, is generally very healthy. Mortgage companies, however, may be a totally different situation.
Amazing, when one sticks to the facts, things are seldom as scary as the headlines.
PS: Please don't take my comments as though they were intended to take value away from your inputs - they were in addition and as clarification.
Post 41720 by clo Reply
jeffbas, thrifts / mortgages
Thank you, now that makes sense!
You see the reason this would never occur to me is twofold, fortunately I don't use CC unless I can pay in full upon billing,
second, I would want to lower my mortgage & the payments...
I appreciate your logic. ;)) clo
Post 41721 by Arkural Reply
"...Sept. S&P 500 futures (SPU2) closed at 911, a positive close by 10.40. This close was just above the 38% retracement level (908.84) drawn from the Aug/Sept. downtrend..."
Phenomenon at work.
Post 41722 by uponroof Reply
details of the agreement are starting to filter out (at least rumors). It sounds like this might be a groundbreaker for miners, an agreement shaped after oil concessions within the international petroleum community. This might also explain the long wait as the agreement, being anything but vanilla, took some time to form.
From KRY Winner's Circle:
Lloyd 5275. "Structure of deal with CVG..."
In response to message #5272
While catching up on things, I noted with interest the post by Discover25 to Bawana1 (on KRY RB forum):
Yes, the name of this new relationship is "Explotacion Directa". No concesions, no title, no work contracts. Now we have to forget all the discussions about the title. KRY will have to withdraw the lawsuit in the case 16700 and will have some relation like the oil companies in Venezuela. It's something new in the Gold sector.
The PDG contract was an "dubious" contract with CVG. The KRY contract will be totalle diferent legally speaking. I like it.
Of course, Vannessa and Placer Dome are out of the picture forever."
Do we know anything about the validity of the "Explotacion Directa"?
If this is indeed a common relationship within the petroleum business, I would be very pleased. I assume the legal testing of a Explotacion Directa has a lot of history and that companies have been able to finance ventures under it too. If it is common among international oil companies, it should be good for us.
This was the most interesting thing I've heard since Friday.
With a time-tested business structure, a financing package and an inkling of the size of the goldfield, I believe we will show up on new radar screens. I want to see KRY on the Merrill Lynch analysts report! haha.
I can see the XYZ hedge-fund investment committee meeting minutes now: "It was decided to buy everything available up to our desired position or $10 per share, whichever comes first." hahaha.
Post 41723 by uponroof Reply
grains and beff going up, up, up
Commodity prices have been soaring. They may not stop rising for some time to come. Ed Steer brings us some valuable input when it comes to this important aspect of the inflation picture:
If this drought keeps up, by next spring we will have an environmental catastrophe of epic proportions on our hands. There is a huge surface (and underground) water deficit that has slowly been creeping up on almost all parts of North America for the last five years. This year is the first signs of true stress continent wide. It's starting to have a major impact on grain prices. Once a trend like this is established, it will take literally years of well above average precipitation in the form of rain or snow to replenish the system. There is nothing in the long range climate trends that indicate that will happen any time soon.
Meat prices are being adversely affected because of the enormous amounts of cattle being sent to market because their is either no pasture, no silage, and no prospect of baled hay for over-wintering. The land can no longer support the number of head of cattle it is being asked to do when conditions are this dry, and the farmer has no choice, and off to market they go. With all these animals hitting the market at once, it kills the price. His costs get even higher, because before the cattle can "go to market" they have to go to through a process called "cattle on feed", where the animal is grain and chemical fed to change its normal yellow fat to white fat, and to remove the "gamey" taste the meat would have if the cattle were slaughtered right off the farm .
Remember that that the product has to look good on the shelf at Safeway and smell like "beef" when it's cooked on the BBQ. Mostly what cattle are fed is a mixture of corn, soybeans and some grains...but mostly corn. Please check the current price of these commodities vs. what the farmer is getting for his cattle and piggies these days.
The real crunch will come next year when all the cattle (between 10 and 50% of the herd) that have already been sold off will then be required to feed the population. The farmers will be in the process of rebuilding their herds (IF the drought is over), and at one calf per cow (the odd times two), the process takes years, and he's not going to be selling his breeding stock while he's in the process of doing that. It's like eating your seed corn.
You are looking at the last of cheap beef. And if you've bought any lately, it ain't all that cheap right now.
This drought problem extends well beyond the shores of North America. It is already at crisis levels in Australia, where the wheat harvest was down 44% from a year ago....which was down 25% from the year prior. Canada's 2002 crop forecasts show yields down 25% at the moment, and my opinion is that it will be much worse than that by the time the farmers get what's left of their crop in the bins. The growing season is over at this latitude on planet earth. It is now a race for the crops to mature and ripen before they get frozen by the first killer frosts of the fall less than a month away.
Because crops were so late getting started because of lack of moisture, the chances are well above 50/50 that a lot of what's standing will be frozen (destroyed) in place before it ripens enough. This Bloomberg news story is only the tip of the iceberg in what's happening on a global climatic scale as the earth slowly heats up through the results of global warming.
Water rationing is common everywhere in the United States now, especially on the east coast. If we have another winter with a below average snow pack, it will become a crisis the likes of which people cannot imagine.
Along with the economic and financial disaster that the world is looking in the eye right now, we could very likely see a repeat of the weather conditions that existed during the "dust bowl" of the 30's, except on a global scale.
Toss in war and $30+ oil and we have some real problems down on the farm. And it wouldn't be long before the problems of rural North America become problems for urban North America.
The "Long Term Palmer" and the "Need vs Available" in the the top 5 foot profile for the continental United States shows just how bad it is. It took years to get into this situation and it will take years to get out of it. And right now it's not looking very promising.
Best personal wishes.
Post 41724 by uponroof Reply
CNBC poll on gold:
From Dave Lewis:
Today's CNBC Power Poll asks viewers: Gold traditionally has served as an alluring alternative to stocks in turbulent political times. Are you inclined to put your money into the yellow metal in times like these?
At risk of stating the obvious, I thought to flesh out the, to my mind, rather dispassionate notion of buying Gold in times of crisis. While the media tend to focus on certain aspects of a crisis, such as the 9/11 attacks or suicide bombings in Israel, it seems to me that the underlying issues don't receive their due attention. Economics, as least as I think about the discipline, is a study of man's behavior with respect to trade. The question of economics, from an individual perspective, might be expressed by asking, are you getting enough given what you provide in trade? Buying Gold at times of crisis might seem a bit odd when viewed without historical context but when one considers buying Gold as a vote against an elastic currency, the crisis-Gold relationship becomes much clearer. That is, during times when people resort to violence, should we question our economic foundations? One such foundation is the utopian notion that an elastic currency whose value is determined not in the markets but by a groups of solons, will provide a better economic outcome than a hard currency whose value is explicit. Crises are, in some sense, signs that things are not running smoothly. How you read those signs is up to you.
57% voted aye for gold.
uponroof: If 57% puts their money in gold (as they say in this poll)...we hit 800 POG over night. I think they mean they would, but only after it gets more expensive....lemmings that they are, always waiting for instructions on what to do.
gold being lowered as we speak in 'honor' (fear) of 911 anniversary. Doing exactly what doesn't make common (market) sense whenever crucial moments arise. I would suggest that we could probably accurrately predict the coming invasion of Iraq by monitoring gold, looking for tell tale pre lowering...indicating another crucial time upon us.
Post 41725 by srudek Reply
pmcw: lifting capex via broadband buildout.
Although my Libertarian leanings make me hesitant to say so, I like the idea of the govt supporting the buildout. How that support should work, I'm not sure as I wouldn't want this to become another case of corporate welfare. Mainly I'm thinking that only the government is big enough, at this point, to see this through to completion within the next decade or two.
Anyway, are their any bills working through congress which you feel are worth supporting?
As I said above, I generally abhor the idea of expanding government in any way. In this case, however, it seems to be a choice between supporting government working on something constructive or government starting a war or expanding unemployment benefits further.
Post 41726 by kduff Reply
oldcad, Sounds like a busy trip, enjoy yourself. Have you ever been to New England in the Fall? It's a beauty, and the lobster ain't bad either.
I was wondering if you would share which recipes came from your son in "Tee Time at the Table".
Post 41727 by IamCanadian Reply
Clo, just passing through and noticed your question on mortgages. That business is generally divided into three areas--origination (selling), underwriting/funding (lenders), and administration (management). Some FI's and non-FI's do one of the pieces, some two and WM does all three, quite well I may add. The revenue for originators is usually a % of the mortgage amount as a one time "commission". The lenders make their money on spread over the life of the loan, usually match funded by appropriate classes of deposit instruments--non-Demand Deposits. Administrators revenue comes in the form of fees for the month to month management of the loans, processing payments, taxes, etc.--WM is the largest here. When mortgages are paid down--as opposed to refinanced--that fee goes away, but the fixed costs remain. But since WM does all three, they make money in all areas and hedge the funding and risk by securitizing and selling blocks into the market. That frees up capital to originate more. Generally, lenders like low rate environments because the risk is usually lower as well and the spread in absolute % relationship to the loan widens.
I know WM very well and it's a very well run company. The one caveat I would be alert to--they have been IBM Global Services largest customer for outsourcing the processing part of their business, and it should stay outsourced. The new CIO has made comments about trying to "repatriate" that part of the business, which would be a pretty stupid thing to do since it is very labour and capital intensive, and a commodity--you don't gain any competitive advantage processing cheques and bill payments. Frankly, I don't think Kerry will let that happen, which is why I'll continue to hold. Regards eh, IAC
Post 41728 by pmcw Reply
sr, I'm with you - I generally hate subsidies, but hey, what is our tax system anyway? From one perspective, it's a way to subsidize certain activities. The number one subsidy in the whole mix is advertising and that is exactly why sports and entertainment figures make what they do. But, that's yet another story. Let's focus on one of the few things that is not just a subsidy, but a legitimate investment that I feel will actually return a positive cash flow to the government through taxes collected through corporate profits that would have otherwise been years of losses.
Supporting the broadband build-out helps in in four ways.
1) It initiates spending and creates jobs - that's obvious.
2) It lower costs for both businesses and individuals and improves productivity for industry while creating new opportunities for services.
3) Probably most importantly, it puts under-utilized assets to work in a fashion where they can earn enough to shoulder their debt burden. In bank-speak, it helps non-performing assets perform. This prevents the need to lower the cost of the debt burden (reorganize debt) to a level that can be supported by the owners of the assets.
4) Since assets will be put to more efficient use, people will be employed and new services rendered, I feel this stimulus package is actually an investment that will return more tax dollars than it costs.
The Bill that Tom Daschle has effectively blocked for nearly two years is Senate Bill S.88. It was introduced by Democrat Jay Rockefeller and has the approval (signatures) of 64 Senators. The DNC estimates the total cost of the bill to be $2B over its life and has classified it, and several others like it, as corporate welfare.
Even worse, the fundamental benefits of S.88 were incorporated in House Bill H.R.3090 which was signed into law last spring. However, before the Senate would sign on they forced the removal of all the Title IX stimulus items, including all those related to broadband.
The fundamental problem with the broadband industry today is the inverse of what Eisenhower faced in the 1950's when he devised the Interstate Highway plan. Then we had good means of transportation within cities, but were limited when traveling between cities. Curing this required massive land condemnation and a unified Federal effort.
Today, we have an over abundance of Interstate broadband, but the equivalent of gravel roads for access. It took stimulus to build out the Interstate and look at the productivity we've since realized through improved transportation. Heck, it pretty well put the train system on the ropes.
In reality, we actually need a bit more than stimulus. We need other federal directives that get the state, local and municipal governments the heck out of the way and tell them they can't tax the buildout to death. We also need to tell the PUC (Public Utility Commissions) exactly what they can and CAN'T do. Much of the cost for laying local pipe is legal and red tape that simply can't be afforded.
We also need to get Trent Lott the heck out of the way. We need real broadband regulation. The Telecom Act of 1996 was not designed for broadband. We need to tell the CLEC's it's time to build or go home - they can't just be a scab on the side of the Bells. We need to pass a law separating all Telecom Act of 1996 requirements from data lines capable of providing down-line services faster than say 1mbs. There are also Bills pending that do exactly this plus Powell would let the FCC move on it if Lott wasn't in the way.
One of these days you'll learn not to ask simple questions. ;o) If you want more information on this or any bill, go to senate.gov, select search and type in a key word. Broadband will yield quite a selection.
OT: Yes, we did a...
OT: pmcw, "ISIL is the 800 pound gorilla in t