Table On-Topic Summary - 14-Sep-2002
A compilation of this board's financial/economic posts From 41929 to 41991



Post  41929  by  tinljhtkh       Reply
Hi "L"!

The situation with the "stub" of T (AT-T) is going to be very interesting. They have applied to do a 1 for 4 or 5 reverse stock split in order for their stock price to remain viable after the cable assets are split off toward the end of this year! They will be in long distance and enterprise only after that. I think that T is going to play a bigger role in this worldcom breakup than anyone now believes! I also think that there is a great deal of nervousness in many places about what is to become of worldcom, partially because of all of the government and defense business that they do!

I would not put any money down on the idea that T is going to be acquired by anybody very quickly! Everybody thought that AWE, the wireless unit, might be gone long before now but they are still around and still taking market share! There has, in my view, been a dramatic shift in America's buying habits since September 2001, and T possesses an old recognizable name that may be worth a whole lot more than people think! T's recognition of that fact, coupled with their 19.95 for every minute of the month long distance plan makes them a very compelling value at this time! As people continue to change their travel plans and use the telephone more and more, T's value may continue to grow!

We need to remember that when you talk about T, there is usually more there than meets the eye. They've picked up a few things in the last couple of years at distress sale prices and you just never really know! I still remember last summer when they spun off AWE and their stock price returned to its prior value within a day or so, creating an instant 40 percent or so gain! We have been hearing lately that long distance pricing has begun to harden up and the bottom may have been reached! The era of constantly breaking up everything may also have reached its end. I think as more and more people look at the wcom situation and combine that with a look at T and Quest, sane thinking may start to return to the heads of the business community and regulators alike!

We shall see what we shall see but I am reminded that France Telecom is looking for a CEO as we speak and it is 40 percent government owned! The quickest way to create mass unrest in this country is to have a complete telecom meltdown and it is not out of the question that that could occur given the right set of circumstances! There are already problems with busy circuits for cell phones all over the country and we don't need to have problems start to crop up with the land lines too! If that starts to happen Mr. Powell might start spending time in Mr. Bush's office getting some attention that he doesn't want to receive! And as you said: "that last part's the tough part, don't ya know!" I don't particularly agree with all of George W's tactics but I wouldn't want him pouting at me either and I sure wouldn't want to get one of those UN lectures alone!

IMVHO!

Regards,

Tin





Post  41930  by  tinljhtkh       Reply
Sorry, however

"The deregulation of LD had absolutely nothing to do with the $1.3T in telecom debt generated between 1996 and 2000. That was strictly due to the Telecom Act of 1996 - the greatest deregulation failure in the history of America."

it has everything to do with the Telecom act of 1996! If they hadn't broken up T there would have never been any need for it! You have a tendency to look at things in isolation from one another and it just doesn't work that way Bud! They got away with the 84 breakup and that emboldened them to make the 96 screw-up and they did a fantastic job of it! And after they did the 96 act then they came along and repealed Glass-Steagal and we really took a ride!

In your world, Pmcw, freedom is defined as no regulation and no taxes, and you're right--"Freedom is never free!" ;-)

IMVHO!

Regards,

Tin





Post  41931  by  srudek       Reply
pmcw: How about an RB Cap/Ex campaign?

I'm intending to send a letter to my representatives in the House and Senate. To whom else should I write?

More importantly, how can we muster a letter writing campaign among RagingBull members? I'm beginning to feel like we're on a train track with the light of train in the distance; this is just dumb. You're a famous person here, have you considered making a direct appeal? We need some leverage here.




Post  41932  by  srudek       Reply
jeffbas: P/E vs. P/S ratio.

First of all, thanks for bringing to my attention some time ago that PE is a poor metric of market bottoms. Since you brought this to my attention I've heard the same from others I respect: notably Steven Saville of Speculative-Investor.com. It makes sense: earnings plunge drives the ratio to the sky or makes it nonsensical.

Some questions for you: why does P/S work well? I have some thoughts, but thought I'd ask you. Also, can you see any reason why software company P/S ratios would have dropped back to 1990 levels when, presumably, other types of companies have not yet done so? Do you think they will? I noticed that Adobe surprised the market by coming in substantially above estimates today: would this be an indication of this P/S bottom(do you have info on Adobe's P/S)?

I don't know how many of these questions you care to tackle, but I wanted you to know, at least, that I saw your post.

BTW, that link to the marketwatch article on this subject doesn't work for me. Can you access it and post it directly?


Post  41933  by  clo       OT:Terror's Trojan Horse


Post  41934  by  abveldeh       Reply
srudek prices are dropping since Januari in continental Europe and are predicted to fall at a rate of 5% a year. Of course bubbles only occur in economically important areas, also meaning these things burst also in economicly important areas. The average little farmer with a house under $10,000 and a likewise income will hardly feel the difference. He probably doesn't own much and will still have his chickens and vegetable garden when the world stops to exist.



Post  41935  by  clo       Reply
Question for Table:
The following is an extracted from an article in the Boston Globe about TYC. It begs me to ask the questions below.

Merrill prohibits analysts from receiving gifts worth thousands of dollars, said spokesman Bill Halldin. ''During Young's employment, we have no knowledge of any such violations of Merrill Lynch's policies.''

Does anyone know the size of acceptable gifts?
Is there a policy for all of them to follow?
This should be an area that is clearly labeled for shareholders to know!
We can NOT trust analysts that accept gifts!
Geez, don't they get paid enough already... ;( clo








Post  41936  by  abveldeh       Reply
jeffbas European Babyboomers are raising capital by selling their homes with a profit and start renting because it is cheaper for one reason. In the end someone will be holding the bag. Renting in the common peoples housingsector is indexed against inflation overhere whilst housing prices are related to ridiculous Japanese like interest rate levels. First time buyers, even both working with more than average salaries, cannot afford prices anymore of close to a million or well over.



Post  41937  by  Culmus       Reply
abveldeh

do you have a source for the development of housing prices in Europe that you could refer me to? Also the source of the prediction of further price declines?

Other sources about the European real estate market would be equally welcome if you don't mind to share.

Thanks in advance.

Culmus




Post  41938  by  abveldeh       Reply
Culmus this info is publicised in the daily newspapers in Holland. I do not have specific links or figures since the news only trickels in lately from realestate brokers and other sources like TV news, documentaries and the housing advertisements around me.

The thing is why buy now if in 3 years you have a 15% discount or more unless you give me the discount straight away.

Also Dutch market tends to be ahead most of the time. It follows the $$ very closely for exportreasons and Holland is the most densely populated area in the world




Post  41939  by  abveldeh       Reply
Culmus here are the tree leading newspapers. The third one gives updates from minute to minute autmaticly. So when important figures from anywhere come out it is updated.

http://www.telegraaf.nl/krant/vandaag/teksten/financien.html
http://www.nrc.nl/economie/index.html
http://www.fd.nl/Nieuwsdienst.asp?Context=N%7C1

http://www.debeurs.nl/home/home.asp
This one gives the AEX which is a perfect indicator of US premaket sentiment (You have to refresh all the time though)




Post  41940  by  abveldeh       Reply
News in the FD links can be read on the day only , so not the previous days, unless you are a subscriber



Post  41941  by  Culmus       Reply
On-topic, I'm a huge Formula 1 fan

First I wanted to label this post "The snake oil salesman and his one note fiddle" but I changed my mind (## 41165, 41178):-)

There is no denying, Ferrari is dominating the 2002 Formula 1 season like no other team has done in a long time. Why?

There is no single father of that success, it is a team effort. The team consists of many specialists, each one among the best in his field. Ferrari's technical director is Ross Brawn, he's a genius when it comes to setting the strategy for a race, analyzing what the competition is capable of and seeking its weak spots, then assessing his own team's capabilities and playing its strength at exactly these points where the competition is weak. But he can't do that without the other team members' strengths.

Engine chief is Paolo Martinelli, the fact that this seasons' car is dominating so strongly has a lot to do with the superior engine coming from his blue prints. This guy knows absolutely everything about the right mix of the fuel needed, at what amount of RPM the engine is delivering maximum power, how far it can be run at maximum without going broke, everything about valves, cylinders and all other moving and fixed parts of an engine.

While success in racing is impossible without a competitive engine, despite his detailed knowledge about it, Paolo Martinelli is not sitting in the drivers' seat of Ferrari.

Michael Schumacher is, and he probably knows only a fraction about engines of what Paolo Martinelli does. That is because he best knows how to handle the circuit, the car and he has the talent to simply run the car fastest around the circuit.

The moral for investors: A mechanic is not necessarily a good driver and all the detailed knowledge about engines doesn't help make him one. For a good driver as for a good investor there are many different skill sets required, the blend of all these skill sets combined is more important than all the detailed knowledge about just one of these skill sets.

A mechanic dressing down the chief designer (who has a different skill set) of another team will not improve his own lap time in doing so. And the last thing he should do is to dress down members of other teams when at the same time he is not willing to pass on his lap time so everyone can make a comparison. Because what counts in the end, the only thing that counts, is the lap time.

Investors who know how to make money in the market do it, those who don't, well.... they lose or write newsletters, or both.

Culmus




Post  41942  by  Culmus       Reply
Thanks abveldeh,

if you should be running about news on European real estate prices would you please post it so we can follow the global price movements as mentioned by srudek.

Regards,
Culmus




Post  41943  by  jbennett53       Reply
Clo, There are a couple of glaring problems with Mr. Schumer's thoughts. I keep asking if anyone knows where are all of the 20MT weapons produced by the Soviets. Since these weapons number in the many thousands it is quite a concern they are all accounted for. By the time such a weapon reaches a crane at a US port it is already too late. Smaller weapons in the 1MT range weigh around 2000 pounds and could be delivered by small aircraft or speed boat. Six of these large weapons delivered to our major ports coupled with a dozen or so of these smaller weapons delivered by small aircraft over urban areas which also contain our ability to manufacture smallpox vaccine and we would cease to exist. War is not the answer. We cannot defend against this. If on the other hand one would wish to commit total world domination and genocide the risk could possibly be removed by military means. I would wonder how we would go about that course without the Russians, Chinese, Indians etc. being on board. Would you like to play a nice game of Risk? The best to you.



Post  41944  by  clo       Reply
Oh Culmus!

Your analogy applies anytime We come into contact with others, IMHO.

In order to make Our World a better place, We should share Our best with others!

And be gentle when We trip, knowing there are lessons learned with each journey.

And remember it's Never too late to start the day over.

Thank you for your words of wisdom & for sharing your BEST with All of Us!

Respectfully, clo, Claudia




Post  41945  by  abveldeh       Reply
http://www.volkskrant.nl/economie/8761029500178.html
http://www.volkskrant.nl/economie/8761029500231.html
http://www.volkskrant.nl/economie/8761029771068.html
http://www.advies-plaza.nl/adviespl.nsf/46c0b05cd41b55f48025696100481901/b3913199c34aa850c1256bf300305193!OpenDocument
Consultants van PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) concludeerden ruim een maand geleden dan ook dat de prijzen dit jaar welhaast meten afnemen; met driekwart procent om precies te zijn. Voor 2003 en 2004 vrezen de onderzoekers zelfs dalingen van respectievelijk 4,75 en 9 procent
Een belangrijke verklaring voor het verschil in de gevoelstemperatuur op de huizenmarkt - 'de prijzen dalen' - en de positieve cijfers van de NVM, is de manier waarop die cijfers tot stand komen. De belangenvereniging kijkt namelijk alleen naar huizen die daadwerkelijk verkocht zijn. Woningen die tegen een verlaagde prijs te koop staan tellen niet mee.
(translation:Houses offered against a lower price are not accounted for)

En dat zijn er nogal wat. Het aantal huizen op de markt groeide in de afgelopen drie maanden met liefst 8 procent tot 54 duizend. Daartussen zitten ook huizen die al lang te koop staan, en waarvoor geen kopers kunnen worden gevonden. Het lijkt een kwestie van tijd voor de prijzen van die huizen naar beneden gaan.



http://www.ad.nl/artikelen/Nieuws/1022561585774.html




Post  41946  by  pmcw       Reply
sr, You can find your Senator at www.senate.gov and your Rep at www.house.gov.

This is how I feel the effort should be focused:

In the Senate - The Republicans need the most encouragement to move forward with broadband deregulation and the Democrats to move forward with S.88 (Senate Bill 88). Both situations should be mentioned in the communication regardless of the party affiliation of the Senator. You should also ask for the name(s) of the aids involved in telecom policy. This will tell the Senator you realize the aids do much of the work (actually write the Bills). I would also copy the letter to Daschle who is the one person blocking this legislation from the floor. Personally, if I had a Democrat Senator I would go one step farther. I would let them know that if the bill isn't on the floor by election day that I would vote a straight Republican ticket. For me, voting a straight ticket would be a huge issue - it's something I've never done and even the thought is like fingernails on a blackboard.

In the House - This is where we might actually get something moving. Write your Rep (doesn't matter which party) that you want to see a sister bill to S.88 introduced in the House. The more pressure you include in your letter (staying professional of course) the better.

Regards, pmcw






Post  41947  by  abveldeh       Reply
Holland has a sales tax of 6% on every housesale so if the price does not go up by 6% it goes down.

A sales price which is 5% lower is in fact 6%+5%+3%=14% lower.(3% accounts for inflation)

On top of that mortgage interest is still 100% deductable on income tax in the Netherlands which allows for higher prices than in other countries in the Eurozone. This advantage is under pressure from the EU (in fact it is illegal under supposed uniformity of EU ruling)




Post  41948  by  Culmus       Reply
Clo,

exactly that is the point, people engage in exchanges because they want to learn from each other and because the combined knowledge of many is more beneficial to all than if everyone stays mum and fights on his own.

Contra-productive is when someone thinks he knows it all and looks down to everyone else. I wonder how many potentially very helpful contributors to this forum have been distracted by the misplaced attitude and oversized ego of one single person here.

pmcw has been dressing down tons of people who have achieved performances that surely are light years better than his. So the manager of a bear fund is playing a one note fiddle, at least he doesn't claim to be everything to everyone. A bear fund is a way to make money in a bear market, it is up to the investor to decide whether we are in a bear market or not, when to get in and when to get out.

If I had the time for it I would go back through all posts by pmcw and reconstruct his countless recommendations and smash the losses right in his face. That he has the guts to look down on others is not only testament of ignorance it sure as hell is also a symptom of an ill personality.

Would his recommendations be at huge gains we surely would have them presented on a weekly basis like he did in the months after starting the 921 "model portfolio". It ain't the case which means anyone who followed him is sitting on sizeable losses. Now he starts a new model portfolio at even lower market levels, which IMO is a slap in the face of everyone who followed him since last year (not to mention his bullish stance during last summer which cost many people a lot of money until the start of "model portfolio 1" already). That is what I meant with the mechanic knowing it all about engines, remember during last summer I asked him to step out from under the trees and have a look at the forest as everyone doing this would have realized that the semi sector was in for a correction. This guy gets totally lost in details (like in all posts, regardless which subject) and simply can't see the forest for the trees.

The sole reason for him setting up another model portfolio is to look good again, this guy cares a #### about what happened to his followers before that. I wonder whether subscribers who bought XICO at $ 11 to $ 12 (I remember that post well, "this is an excellent opportunity to enter..blablabla") do not ask him what they should do as they have no funds left to average down the umpteenth time. I also remember well how I have been attacked when in answer to his recommendation to buy LU at $ 6 I said I wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole, also not at prices much lower than that. He we are. Same with ISIL at $ 35 when I posted an article that pointed to the possibility of potential pricing pressure on their products through additional competition, it happened. Same with......

That someone with such a lousy track record has the guts to look down on everyone else puzzles me. If such a person then tries to make me look stupid, well....

I'm still waiting for him to come up with a reasoning for the second portfolio re-start.... Little hope, because even the most gifted snake oil salesman will have difficulty with that one.

Warmest regards:-)

Culmus


Post  41949  by  pricegriz       OT: IRAQ


Post  41950  by  pdowd       Reply
Ikorrow Ref. Teachers Unions !
My wife is a special education teacher and a union member. Probably the ONLY reason she is in the union, (I agree that the teachers unions have been pretty unefective ) is for the free legal representation insurance that they provide. With the litigous society we live in teachers are morally and financially responsible for kids safety and education. PD.


Post  41951  by  maldinero       OT: Culmus In cyberspace, all claims should be t


Post  41952  by  pdowd       Reply
First things first for cable operators
Amid grandiose plans, customer service must improve
By David B. Wilkerson, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 3:44 AM ET Sept. 14, 2002

BOSTON (CBS.MW) -- At a time when cable companies are under more scrutiny than ever, they can't afford to get the basic things wrong.

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Customer service is one of the most basic elements of a cable company's success -- and yet, by neglecting it, some operators are putting their long-term growth prospects at serious risk, according to a recent study by Boston-based Innovista, a cable research firm.

Innovista's findings are underscored by a separate study conducted by J.D. Power & Associates. Both surveys revealed that despite cable's significant market share advantage over satellite, consumers with satellite have a much higher degree of satisfaction with their service.

The entertainment marketplace is increasingly fragmented, and with so many outlets vying for your dollars -- satellite, the Web, radio, newspapers, magazines, video games, DVD players -- cable companies have to prove their service is truly valuable.

They've tried to do this with an array of digital services, including video-on-demand, high-speed Internet access, telephony and more. While these offerings show promise, it is clear that a key factor in convincing people to buy such services is to maintain solid customer service.

Innovista's study asked customers to rate the largest cable providers in six categories:

* Cost
* Installation service
* Customer care (dealing with phone operators, etc.)
* How user-friendly the interfaces are (remote control, on-screen guides, etc.)
* Amount of available channels
* Reliability of the cable signal


Cox Communications (COX: news, chart, profile) ranked first, followed by Comcast Communications (CMCSK: news, chart, profile) and AOL Time Warner (AOL: news, chart, profile).

At the bottom of the list were Paul Allen's Charter Communications (CHTR: news, chart, profile) and Adelphia Communications (ADELQ: news, chart, profile). Adelphia imploded earlier this year in an accounting fraud debacle that led to the arrest of founder John Rigas and several members of his family who had served as executives. The company's collapse led investors to question accounting practices throughout the industry, a major factor in the 70-percent drop in cable stocks this year.

The issue of cost

What was the No. 1 complaint?

Cable simply costs too much.

Sure -- it costs a lot for cable operators to upgrade systems and pay affiliate fees for programming.

But Todd Wiener, president of Innovista, says that as cable companies look for ways to create more digital customers, they'd better make sure they're keeping traditional basic -- or analog -- users happy.

"We found that analog subscribers were substantially less satisfied with the cost of their service than digital [customers]," Wiener said. "And we found that among the analog subscribers that were dissatisfied, a lot more of them felt that digital service was too expensive, and that's why they were not upgrading."

Cable costs go up steadily year after year, at several times the rate of inflation. Innovista isn't nave enough in its report to suggest to cable operators that they resist fee hikes.

Rather, says Wiener, the key is to show, in some way, where the money is going. "They can do that by improving the quality of [telephone] customer service, and just letting customers know what they have available to them," he said.

Cox has consistently followed this formula, says Kimberly Edmunds, the company's vice president of customer service.

"I think it's ... about making sure that the price/value ratio is balanced," Edmunds said. "Giving customers assurances we're going to be here for them -- that we're going to answer the phone in a timely manner, that we're not going to leave them high and dry."

Generally, simple consumer education is something cable companies don't do very well, says Pete Gatseos, senior vice president of The Cable Center, a provider of training and other services to the cable telecommunications industry.

"Over the years, customer service has gotten better. The phone systems are much improved, calls can be monitored better, and quality assurance is put into place better than in the past," Gatseos said. "And they [cable operators] never tell anyone."

Another big reason for dissatisfaction among respondents to Innovista's survey was botched installations, and, in a related area, service outages.

While the fix for this is a technical one, The Cable Center's Gatseos says the role of human interaction shouldn't be underestimated.

"People forget that cable is an emotional product," he said. "When there's an outage, and there are just five minutes left in the football game, and the score is tied ... or you're about to see Monk solve the murder mystery, you're upset. And I think we need to train our [customer service representatives] that television is an emotional product, and they should be trained, like the triage nurse, to handle that situation at that moment."

In this instance, too, it seems that top-ranked Cox tries to bear this concept in mind.

"We spend a lot of time training our customer contact employees, and one of the things that we try to emphasize ... is that we don't sell cable," said Edmunds. "We sell excitement, entertainment and joy. So whether it's video or Internet service, we tell them that if there's an outage or [another] problem, that's it's not a piece of technology."

Along the same lines, Gatseos has another reminder for cable operators. "People have a long memory," he said. "And when [an installer has] stepped on somebody's garden and ruined their prize flower bed, they'll remember that for quite a long time.

"And the effects are always terrible, because of course the unhappy customer will tell the story many times over, whereas the happy one will not. So there is a bottom-line effect there."

Programming

Another issue: Innovista's findings confirmed once more the oft-repeated notion that people only watch relatively few channels, even when they have 200 or more to choose from.

There can sometimes be a one-to-one correlation between this limited viewing pattern and complaints about cost, Wiener said. "[Customers] felt they were getting more channels, but they weren't watching more. So they were basically paying for a lot more than they were watching."

Companies can try to handle this problem by experimenting with various subscription plans that let customers choose only the channels they actually want, Wiener said.

Gatseos agrees, but says a conservative approach to such plans is best. "Whenever cable companies have tried to [offer a lot of a la carte programming plans], they've had to retreat," he noted. "There have been some attempts to introduce, like, a dozen packages -- and they quickly had to reduce them back down to three. It reminds me of people who say, 'I want more educational programming.' And so, in a survey that scores very high. But when you look at the actual Nielsen ratings of PBS -- why, they're obviously small in comparison to the entertainment stuff."

Cox' Edmunds declined comment on programming matters. She did say that although customer reps do make note of programming comments callers might make, the company's customer call center is not a "primary vehicle" for taking such input.

Satellite licks its chops

Innovista found that just 69 percent of cable subscribers are satisfied with their service, compared to a whopping 90 percent satisfaction rate for satellite customers.

In J.D. Power & Associates' most recent study on cable and satellite satisfaction, which included results taken from nearly 4,000 subscribers to 14 major providers of cable or satellite media, GM Hughes' (GMH: news, chart, profile) DirecTV received the top score.

Responding to similar criteria to the Innovista study, consumers rated DirecTV 18 index points higher than the average cable TV service.

While cable still has a substantial lead in market share over satellite, this kind of satisfaction gap may be having an effect.

Earlier this month, Charter said that in the third quarter, its basic analog service is being hurt primarily by competition from satellite companies. This development could lead to "lower-priced packages and/or moderate price increases in 2003," said Karim Zia, cable analyst at Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown.

So what are satellite companies doing so well?

"I think the biggest thing is that they have the videophiles; they've captured more heavy TV users who always score higher in the results of any survey," says Gatseos. "The fact that they, from the gate, offered a multitude of channels, attracted the videophile."

Satellite service has always been digital, which allowed it to offer hundreds of channels long before cable providers could. As cable has tried to catch up in channel capacity, it has had to raise its fees to the point where they are almost on a par with the average monthly cost of a satellite subscription -- a development that has fueled complaints about cable's cost.

DirecTV's biggest edge in customer service is its ability to maintain reliable service that is free from outages or other snafus, said Steve Kirkeby, senior director of telecommunications services at J.D. Power.

In J.D. Power's survey, 42 percent of DirecTV subscribers reported that they had to call the company about a problem, compared to 52 percent a year ago.

That 10-point decline in complaints easily outperformed the industry; overall, reported problems to satellite providers fell 5 percent, while cable problems declined just 2 percent.

Some 69 percent of DirecTV customers who did complain said the issue was resolved after one call, compared to 65 percent last year. Here again, says Kirkeby, the company bettered the industry average.

"That's not to say that cable and satellite companies have sloughed [customer care] off," Kirkeby adds quickly. "They've spent lots and lots of money on that particular factor. What we see is that problems have been more complex, and secondly, customers have become more and more demanding."


It is amazing that satellite customers aren't put off by the rain and overcast sky interruptions to service, especially in rainy areas. PD.


Post  41953  by  pacemakernj       OT: Linda, you know I had a tough night. I went to
Post  41954  by  pacemakernj       OT: Jeffbas, I could not agree more. We had that s


Post  41955  by  lkorrow       Reply
Short press conference on arrival at Camp David:

Prime Minister of Italy Berlusconi says the American flag is the universal symbol of freedom.

GWB says the Middle East will either be peaceful or nuclear within 5-10 years. The United Nations has a chance to show its backbone or its irrelevance.
-------------------------------

Storm Watch report worth reading. Shows mortgage defaults rising, banks offload of telecom debt risk, bubbles, etc. (orig. posted by highhertel on MET board)

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htm
Also see: http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/main.htm

-------------------------------
Bill Gates could wipe out the national debt or buy WCOM! Exageration, but he weighs in at over $43B in personal assets after losing $11B last year. MSFT has $39B in cash. Somehow, I feel I've been overcharged for my software! Buffet, $36B.

Forbes list of the richest Americans:
http://www.forbes.com/home/2002/09/13/rich400land.html





Post  41956  by  pacemakernj       Reply
Roof, I could not agree more. The Fed is getting too much credit when in fact they have consistently been wrong with regard to growth forecasts both on the upside and downside. The result of which has been a reactive monetary policy that has caused both the boom and bust. Currently they are too tight and failing further interest rate cuts of at least 75bp will imo, hurl us back into recession. The only one's who don't know or refuse to realize it is the FED themselves. Did you know that third quarter earnings warnings are running way ahead of 2nd qtr. These folks are in denial big time. JMO, Pace.



Post  41957  by  lkorrow       Reply
Hello Tin! :-)

I think T's already playing a role in WCOM, they're picking up customers! I don't know how many. I think there's been talk of both having someone aquire WCOM and letting them go out of business. T keeps saying they could absorb the traffic. It would certainly spur cap ex, imho. Yes, your implication is a possibility, pick up the assets like they did with Northpoint. And the customers too. Anything's possible. On the govt side, I doubt it's a problem to switch their traffic, but some diversity is desirable.

I agree, there's been some signs of life over at T. They re-entered the local voice market after wholesale rates were forced down. So now they're stealing business left and right from the LECS through resale. I think you're right about the brand name, it's recoverable. That's offsetting the loss of LD to the LECs, which is bottoming! The only disadvantage of the $19.95 plan is it only applies to calls to other T customers. Still a step in the right direction. They should also be getting productivity improvements and a customer service boost from their newly deployed voice recognition and response system in their customer service operation. Progress!

On wireless, I think PCS is better positioned than AWE; they upgraded to 3G nationwide overnight. This is the best technology for PDA users. Because T made the wrong technology decision years ago -- TDMA -- they have a costly upgrade path, city by city with high capex costs. And it will be repeated for the upgrade from 2.5G to 3G. AWE will have an advantage for int'l business travellers, since they will be using the same standard as Europe when it's all rolled out. As a result, only one phone's required.

I think T's still a somewhat risky stock, probably a good investment through the broadband spinoff, then a longer term sell until the economy picks up. jmho.




Post  41958  by  Culmus       Reply
maldinero

I agree with you that in a public forum one should treat each other with dignity and respect as in real life, keep the game friendly and avoid making things personal. However, that is not what our hero is doing.

pmcw does have nice knowledge about many things but he is not right all the time and he is not superior to everybody else as he would like to make everybody believe. There is nothing to say against a proper dose of self-esteem but not to the extent that constantly making derogatory remarks about otherwise respected people can be tolerated forever. I'm not talking about myself, the way he attacked Bill Gross and other capable people shows that, last he tried to make people believe Warren Buffett would engage in less than straightforward business methods. If Bill Gross weren't smart he wouldn't manage the world's largest bond fund. Warren Buffett is living prove that the market can be outperformed just by way of smart investment decisions. Heck, if pmcw were as smart as he thinks he would be ruling the world. He doesn't.

What is getting me over the edge is his constant twisting of other's words in order to make people believe that he is proving his viewpoint to be correct and his selective choice of partial facts (almost equaling a lie) as long as they prove his point, that happened a couple of times with arguments I made. His absolute desire to be right all the time makes this a recurring event and this makes discussions just the more tiresome and time consuming. The options discussion has gone that way.

I disagree that what we are doing here is just a little game of cyber poker. This might just be cyberspace but there is a very real link to the real world. The nice knowledge pmcw undoubtedly possesses has gained him the respect he meets on this board and it also undoubtedly has caused, I don't know how many, people to follow his advice when recommending this or that stock. It might have started only in cyberspace but pmcw takes in real money with his newsletter and many people have lost real money following his recommendations. This is no cyber game.

Again in the desire to be the best, better make it appear that way, he now is starting a new model portfolio when in effect many people still own the stocks that he recommended at much higher prices before. I think it is a sign of utter disrespect towards the people he harmed that he now tries to wash his track record clean in doing this (later referring to the performance of "model portfolio x+n"). Sure, it has been a very difficult market and making losses was easy but for the sake of truth and in respect of the followers one should admit mistakes and try to learn from them. He is picking on mistakes by others and painting his own ones, that is a dishonest behavior IMO (sorry to call it what it is, sometimes the truth hurts).

I would not have gone that far, but the pertinent nature of pmcw's word twisting and his hiding from his own mistakes, showing the disrespect for the people who pay him subscription fees, made me lose patience. I had a lot of patience, really a lot, but enough is enough.

If he had shown respect for others he would have deserved to be respected as well. Respect is no one way street, he has to learn that.

Culmus




Post  41959  by  lkorrow       Reply
pmcw, what is it you are looking for govt to do to spur capex spending. Are you speaking of the broadband bill or others too?

srudek, some links:

Write the House
http://www.house.gov/writerep/

Write the Senate
http://www.senate.gov/contacting/index_by_state.cfm

Mr. Smith emails Washington
http://www.mrsmith.com/





Post  41960  by  srudek       Reply
abveldeh: re "prices are dropping since Januari in continental Europe and are predicted to fall at a rate of 5% a year."

According to what source? I hoping you live in Europe and can tell us, first hand, what his happening there? The numbers from the Economist are, I think, median prices for the entire country. Some areas for the U.S., for example, are appreciating near 20% while a few are actually falling.

"Of course bubbles only occur in economically important areas, also meaning these things burst also in economicly important areas."

I don't know about "only", but 'mainly' would make sense. Rampant appreciation benefits from a lot of social interaction and critical mass (people gossiping about how much prices are going up).

I'm thinking it is almost entirely first world countries which are inflating in this way. Could this be because the central banks of these countries were the primary particpants in the effort to buffer the economy against a down turn? Or would this be because of net immigration pressure? Or maybe because people in the first world countries were more "invested" in stocks, etc. and have felt more pressure as markets and interest rates have fallen? Any thoughts?



Post  41961  by  clo       OT:maldinero, if I may?


Post  41962  by  lkorrow       Reply
Clo, the thought occurred to me that these ships should be screened offshore. Far offshore. The Japanese built a whole airport offshore. We could put a docking station 20 miles out or more to minimize a problem if something went off.

This is really good and necessary, but blackpox and other bioterrorism threats are also big problems with Iraq and others.




Post  41963  by  Warstud       Reply
Chip insiders resume stock purchases..

By Matt Andrejczak & Chris Kraeuter, CBS.MarketWatch.com

Last Update: 12:07 AM ET Sept. 14, 2002

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Semiconductor stocks may be weak and have further to fall, but executives at some of the biggest chip companies are starting to bet that the bottom is near at hand.

Recent purchases by top executives at Vitesse Semiconductor (VTSS: news, chart, profile), LSI Logic (LSI: news, chart, profile), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD: news, chart, profile) signal that chip executives are growing bullish about a possible turnaround in their beleaguered industry, a trend that may develop in the coming months.

"There has been a dramatic upswing," said Michael Painchaud, research director for Market Profile Theorems, a Seattle-based research firm that tracks insider activity. "The average investor should conclude that their risk level in the semiconductor area is much less than in 1999 and 2000 when insiders were bailing."

Semiconductor insiders bought $3.6 million worth of stock in August, the most since executives purchased $11 million worth of stock in November 2001, according to preliminary data from Thomson Financial. The late summer buying put the sector's monthly sell-to-buy ratio at its lowest point in four years.

While the short-term picture for the chip industry is dismal, anecdotal evidence suggests semiconductor insiders and investors who bought shares after the last plunge in chip stocks benefited.

For instance, after last fall's big insider buying binge, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ($SOX: news, chart, profile) rose almost 20 percent during the next three months.

With many semiconductor companies trading at multi-year lows, observers said some chip executives are betting that their stocks are at or near their bottoms.

"I would expect much more buying in this sector," predicts Jonathan Moreland, who runs InsiderInsights.com. "This is just the beginning."

In the case of Vitesse, which makes communications chips, Chief Executive Louis Tomasetta bought 250,000 shares and Chief Financial Officer Eugene Hovanec bought 180,000 shares since the beginning of August in 10 different transactions.



The executives, though, have reason to publicly support their stock.

Vitesse was dropped from the S&P 500 Index in August and the company continues to lose money. Shares have fallen 89 percent this year to around $1.30 and are off 99 percent from an all-time high of $106 in March 2000.

"I think they are trying to show support for their company," said Paul Brandeis, analyst with Needham who covers wireline communications chipmakers. "This is an opportunity for them to show confidence in their stock and probably make a lot of money down the road."

Brandeis said, however, a turnaround is not imminent. "They still have a long way to go. The end markets still have fundamental problems, capital expenditures continue to be cut and there are structural issues in the marketplace that need to be worked out."

LSI Logic Chief Executive Wilfred Corrigan bought 100,000 shares at $7.67 each at the end of July. LSI currently trades around $8.

Last week, LSI launched a major new product called RapidChip and the company reiterated financial targets for its current quarter. The company, which makes chips used in consumer, storage and communications products, expects to reach profitability in the fourth quarter.

A company spokesman said Corrigan periodically buys stock when he "believes it is undervalued and he is confident in a recovery in the semiconductor industry."

His track record is indeed noteworthy.



Based on Corrigan's previous eight share purchases on the open-market, LSI's stock gained 47 percent on average in the following six months, according to Thomson research.

AMD Chief Executive Hector de J. Ruiz made his first open-market purchases since assuming the top executive's position five months ago. On Aug. 1 and 2, he bought 24,000 shares at prices between $7.39 and $7.90 each. All together, he owns 1 million shares subject to options exercisable after Feb. 25.

Later this year, AMD is slated to launch one of its biggest product lines ever. The chips are expected to significantly help AMD battle leader Intel in the market for computer microprocessors. A company spokesman said de J. Ruiz views the stock as undervalued and likes the company's long-term prospects.

Despite the stock purchases by industry insiders of late, the chip sector remains plagued by problems, analysts said, most notably the demand for personal computers -- its top product.

Just this past week, research house IDC lowered its growth forecasts for PCs through 2003 to reflect weakening demand from both consumer and business users.

Total worldwide PC shipments are now expected to only grow 1.1 percent in 2002 and 8.4 percent in 2003. The numbers were reduced from the June forecast for growth of 4.7 percent in 2002 and 11.1 percent in 2003.

Optimism for chip companies was also shattered by an unexpectedly weak back-to-school shopping season, traditionally a significant period for PC purchases. And the Christmas shopping season, the peak consumer buying period for electronics and PCs, is shaping up to be lackluster.

Further, telecom companies, major buyers of semiconductors, are stuck in a downturn many predict won't end until well into 2003.


Tired of hearing about an imminent upturn, investors have pummeled chip stocks to multi-year lows after a brief run up in early August. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index - an industry barometer - established a four-year low last week.

Another factor to consider: insider selling, which is common among semiconductor executives, has tapered off compared to earlier this year. Stock sales reached $75.3 million during the past three months versus $378.4 million from January to March, according to Thomson data.

The lack of selling coupled with increased insider buying by chip executives is a positive sign for investors, observers added.

Painchaud from Market Profile Theorems said semiconductor bullishness among insiders is at a 24-month high.

Company Buyer Shares Price
Vitesse CEO Louis Tomasetta 240,000 $1.18-$1.41
Vitesse CFO Eugene Hovanec 180,000 $1.18-$1.40
Vitesse Director James Cole 100,000 $1.33-$1.74
LSI Logic CEO Wilfred Corrigan 100,000 $7.67
Advanced Micro CEO Hector de J Ruiz 24,000 $7.39-$7.90

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF35AECA9%2D5B96%2D471F%2DA06B%2DEA4E1F202304%7D&siteid=mktw




Post  41964  by  pmcw       Reply
Culmus, There's no question that every investor makes mistakes. Mine litter the boards and I have no problem owning up to any of them. I learn from when I'm right and I learn from when I'm wrong. The first step in the latter case is to admit the mistake. Two lessons from the Dalai Lama "Instructions for Life" come to mind:

"Take into account that great love and great achievements involve
great risk."

"When you lose, don't lose the lesson."


You'll see later in this post that you would do well to follow this example.

You are most certainly right that I've taken issue with those who use false and misleading information to make a point. This is particularly true when their position has no merit, but I also will point out when a point does have merit and the person needlessly resorts to using distorted or false data to bolster the opinion. I like to debunk the myths and fill in the gaps. A good example of filling in gaps is what I added to Roach's comments. I feel he's generally on target, but the points I added rounded out the picture. I also like to take apart losers. This mostly entails the spammin' penny stocks and train wrecks like TYC. I think you'll find my warning posts on about 40 such boards and the batting average is over 95% right.

I took issue with you when you slammed (it was not a polite disagreement) my first post clearly illustrating that it's wrong to expense options on an income statement. Your position on expensing options in the income statement was wrong and you used absolute lies to support your thesis. Diverging from the debate at hand, you resorted to using lies to attack options rather than accounting issues. You tried to convince others that companies issue options at prices far less than the stock currently trades, that they commonly re-set the option prices if the stock price falls, stated that CSCO had options on their books for a penny and that CSCO had issued 2B option shares at bargain basement prices to insiders and directors. You even persisted in presenting these points after I proved them false. This means you transcended from publishing a misunderstanding to propagating a lie.

Personally, I have no problem in taking the heat for some of my totally boneheaded picks, but it appears that rather than being satisfied with pointing these out, you again have resorted to, let's say, distorting the truth. One clear example is your recent misstatement about my value buying range on XICO which, until 3/10 was $6.75 to $5.21 and never increased to above $8.50. As I've posted on the XICO board, I couldn't be happier (well I could if it dropped to $2) with the recent price collapse. It's allowed me to buy a ton of stock cheap. The same is true of HLIT and ISIL. I know of at least one other person that considered one or more of my focus list and is extraordinarily happy.

So, now you want to talk portfolio performance. OK, I have no problem with that; where shall we start? Should we start in 1998 when I began this as a full-time pursuit? As far has historic performance goes, without a doubt, I'm having a terrible year; the worst of my investing life. I managed to come through 2000 with a low single digit loss after stratospheric gains in 1998 and 1999. Considering the choppiness of 2001, I'm very pleased with my modest gains that beat every equity index like a drum. However, you say that one can't just pick a place to start.

I don't take the time to discuss stocks, technologies, sectors or economics to compete with anyone. I do it simply to share opinions and hopefully exchange perspectives. Sure I'm rough on those that constantly publish BS or on those who should know better, but use distorted data to support a thesis whether the thesis is right or wrong. However, if you want to play the "portfolio game" the only appropriate place to start is when you're willing to (have the guts to) put something out here that can be measured.

You see Culmus, I come here to share data an opinions. I put my picks and the reasons for them on the line. Where are yours? To what shall we measure? And, more importantly, what are you sharing beyond rants of how our system in America, the foreign one you choose to invest in, is a failure? My goals are mine and they don't include beating you or anyone else, but if you're throwing out a challenge, please feel welcome to outline your terms and be prepared to step to the plate.

While your contemplating this, let's look at a few of your comments from the past and your claim of being up 10% in this disastrous year. That claim certainly can't be supported by your posting history unless you are excluding your core long term holdings from your long term performance:

12/31 - http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=TABLE&read=31354

"maintain

thanks for the wishes and I hope you are right about the federal concept playing out. As you know I am sceptical about that. For the time being I will feel comfortable to have a nice exposure in dollars. Frankly, I'm hoping for more currency gains next year."
Hmmm, invested in dollars going into 2002 certainly didn't bring the 10% profit you claim.

3/14 - http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=TABLE&read=33526
"Ok, I'm buying stocks again here (eom)."


3/14 - http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=TABLE&read=33528
"I expect economic news drifting increasingly to the positive side during the next few weeks. Any further market weakness should be short lived, IMO. Merrill Lynch just upgraded tech from underweight to market weight last Friday. Sentiment can get a lot better than last week.

FWIW, I'll ride it out if it happens."
Not a very good time to stay long or buy stocks - particularly those you mention the next day.

3/15 - http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=TABLE&read=33550
"Thank you Arkural and pmcw for your takes on EMLX. (my suggestion in the referenced post, after Culmus announced going long on 3/14, was not to touch it unless it dropped by at least 50%) Well, that one surely is a toy of the momentum players and yes, it is rather expensive, then again, what isn't?

FWIW, I do not think that it is wise to get heavily into shorting at this point in time
(Culmus also announced on 3/15 that he had just gone long SANM). In fact, I shortly expect a rather nice market rise into spring and wouldn't want to be caught short during this time.

If the aim is to take advantage of such a rise (should it happen) isn't in theory a high beta stock what you want to own? Well, EMLX has a beta of 3.5 and it is among the stocks that do have rather violent moves, in whatever direction that move might be."
Well, ELX (was EMLX) is now down about 50% and SANM is down by over 70%. No support of a 10% gain here.


3/19 - http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=TABLE&read=33608

"But in my view there can be little doubt that the next few weeks should bring more economic news that validates (in the short term anyway) the expectation of a rebounding economy. Money flowing into equity funds during February exceeded the amount of last year and the last few weeks showed that the willingness to buy stocks has improved in general.

I certainly can see why you are cautious, but I think the to be expected flow of good economic news will put a floor under stock prices for a while and open up the opportunity for some gains during the next few weeks. But I do hate to go with the flow here."


4/13 - http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=TABLE&read=34230

"maniati

your defensive market assessment has certainly turned out right , and I certainly was too early to get back in. The market is down about 10% since I bought, and so am I :-(

I'm still hopeful to make it back during the next couple of weeks and then some. The warnings in the hardware sector caught me by surprise to say the least. But now the bad news is out in terms of earnings warnings, there should be some companies out soon that have some better things to say. Are you trying some trades now?"
Credit to where credit is due. Maniati has pinned this market more accurately than everyone else combined. It started with his seminal post on cap/ex deceleration and continued through his spring warning.

7/3 - http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=TABLE&read=37566

"pmcw

actually I took your
(that was pmcw's advice)advice of going totally to cash and wait, in mid May. However, having spent the last 6 plus weeks in cash I find that prices are starting to get attractive again, on some select issues that is." Hmmm, took my advice to go to cash huh? Knowing you were a short term trader I felt it a good move. I was a bit concerned when we didn't hear from you for so long, but I'm glad it worked out for you. Thanks for giving me credit.

Not that I care what you think, but the reason I had to start a new portfolio is because the company that tracks newsletters needs one that can be quantified (specific data to track performance). This is why, for the first time, I listed amounts along with my buys and used specific limit orders to execute trades. If you look back over my years of posts here on RB, you'll find that I've never talked dollars or share counts. I think doing so is generally gosh and doesn't add to the dialog. Percentages can just as easily be used to make a point and the reader can apply the percentage to their personal situation. However, when it comes to my newsletter I was left without a choice. My partner in the venture, Rusty, said this was the best way to insure our results would be included in the national rankings.

Culmus, I've enjoyed some of the dialog we've shared in the past and I believe we've both learned from each other's varied perspectives (aren't you glad you took your trading money to cash in May). However, if you want to spread lies about CSCO, defend Buffett when he is clearly wrong about a specific issue and write insulting, arrogant and untrue comments about me, don't expect me to sit on my hands. If you want to openly discuss the virtues of macro-economic issues, the virtues of sectors, markets or particular stocks or even politics and policy, I'm all with you. It's up to you. I'll even play your portfolio game if you wish, but again, you'll have to produce a list rather than simply claim an off-the-wall return with no substantiation.

Regards, pmcw




Post  41965  by  lkorrow       Reply
Thanks, pdowd. A good friend of mine recently retired from special ed in Westchester. More and more challenges every year, a tough job.

Post  41966  by  tinljhtkh       OT: Pricegriz!


Post  41967  by  pmcw       Reply
lk, Fundamentally, I feel it is most important in lean times for one to spend what they have prudently. I certainly don't suggest that government short valued and needed social programs, health, education or anything else. My focus is more on discretionary spending.

I feel discretionary spending needs to have a ROI focus. Heck, if done well, it will generate more tax dollars than the programs cost. Since our number one debt problem is he non-performing assets in the long haul telecom sector I feel the most prudent investment is in putting these assets to work. The best bill for that is clearly S.88. However, there are other forms of cap/ex the government could support without going on a subsidy binge. Some of these are discussed in the following post:

http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=TABLE&read=28213

Regards, pmcw




Post  41968  by  clo       Reply
lkorrow, point well taken, Great idea!

By the way, retailers, specifically Macy's in my area of NYS is having some SALE!

I bought 3 pairs of name brand leather shoes, ( 1 pair are red high heels, too!) the 3 were selling for 185.00, my "Sale" 45.00! for all 3!

The I found a fully lined pink silk dress, originally 60.00 for 15.00!

Now you tell me if these stores have too much inventory? Also is the consumer being my cost conscious?
Well, this consumer is! ;)) clo




Post  41969  by  clo       Reply
jbennett, hi there. You got me to dig a bit.

I thought you might like to visit these sites?
Please share things that you find important, as I am out in left field without a mitt! ;)) clo

The U.S. Nuclear Weapons
Cost Study Project

http://www.brook.edu/dybdocroot/FP/PROJECTS/NUCWCOST/WEAPONS.HTM

The Davy Crockett (shown here at the Aberdeen Proving Ground in Maryland in March 1961) was the smallest and lightest nuclear weapon ever deployed by the U.S. military. It was designed for use in Europe against Soviet troop formations.


http://www.brook.edu/dybdocroot/FP/projects/nucwcost/davyc.htm

Nuclear Weapons - Misc Facts

http://www.tinyvital.com/Misc/nukes.htm




Post  41970  by  lkorrow       Reply
Pace, you are great. eom.

Many people just don't know what the threat is and the mainstream media glosses over it. The phrase "weapons of mass destruction" has lost its impact, people don't associate personal consequences with it anymore, I don't think. I guess it's only necessary to alarm people to the extent necessary to get support. That seems appropriate. I suspect GWB is laying it on the line to the people that count, especially heads of state.

jbennett53 showed the nuclear bomb import challenge that our govt watered down to dirty bomb soas not to scare the heck out of everyone. It seems the only "wee people" that understand are those that are fighting to close down the Indian Point nuclear plant! Certainly screening measures like those in Clo's story should be done to help minimize the threat. And we damm well better adopt solar right now. Enough of this nonsense with the energy industry. Wasn't deregulation of the electric industry the biggest mistake we ever made.

A rampant blackpox could kill the vast majority of the population, world-wide. Middle East too. We have to stop these people now. Thank God GWB & Co. are in office to push resolution otherwise it will be 10,000 times the problem tomorrow and there would be no hope. He is doing what is necessary and is best for the American people and the World and not worrying about his re-election all that much. The stakes are too high. We are at great risk.

There's a new debate on whether West Nile was brought to us by terrorists. I was taught in Global Ecology class at NYU that a result of global warming would be the migration of tropical diseases to the north (and increasingly turbulent weather events, which is also happening). One might expect that West Nile would have started in southern states and moved up. But it started in New York. My mother says it must have come in in ships. That never happened before, but maybe it's possible.

You wonder if the Saudis and others who have supported terrorism have thought it out. They lose too. We all lose. GWB is waking everyone up, hopefully they are listening. It seems so in Pakistan, where they caught that al queda mastermind yesterday. That seems to go against hospitality, guest in the house customs over there? I always think its a shame when talented people chose evil over good and detract from civilization and their countries rather than contribute to them. I think they understand that it's not a religious battle and we don't want to take over countries, just get rid of terrorists. It's about terrorists. Whatever it takes. Yes, Let's Roll!

Have a good weekend, all. Enough of this grim stuff, enjoy life! On that, I think the Jewish word, lechayim, is neat. What a great toast, "to life."

Linda




Post  41971  by  lkorrow       Reply
Pace, I'm not against private shchools, just against schools that teach evil stuff. Region's fine, jihad isn't! :-)

Post  41972  by  lkorrow       OT: Anyone know how top posts are generated?


Post  41973  by  lkorrow       Reply
pmcw, thanks. Yes, I agree we could use some prudent spending.



Post  41974  by  lkorrow       Reply
Clo, my next stop is Macys! Wow! Thanks for the heads up! My credit card's ready. :-)

I think we've been seeing deflation in consumer goods for awhile. Not all of them but this is a good example. I think too people are heading for cheaper stores. The lower end stores are perfroming well, higher ends are getting hurt a bit, if I recall that last round of numbers correctly. . . .


Post  41975  by  Tampathom       OT: Timing the battle


Post  41976  by  lkorrow       Reply
Clo, if that Davy Crocket was built in the '50's, imagine what we must have now.

Post  41977  by  pacemakernj       OT: Linda, I live about 15-20 miles from Indian Po
Post  41978  by  lkorrow       OT Tampathom, Clinton said a lot of clunkers on Da
Post  41979  by  clo       OT: pace! Indian Point? We are neighbors...
Post  41980  by  pacemakernj       OT: Linda on that we agree. Pace.
Post  41981  by  lkorrow       OT: Pace, I've got the Born in the USA CD. :-) Gla
Post  41982  by  pacemakernj       OT: Clo, that was very good. Pace.


Post  41983  by  pacemakernj       Reply
Linda, back to stocks for a second. I've been buying XOMA. The chart looks great. It has broken out of a 4 month cup and handle chart formation and is under heavy accumulation by institutions. It seems that they could get FDA approval for their psoriasis drug Raptiva sometime in October/November. I think it is a double from here on approval. Check it out. Pace.

Post  41984  by  clo       OT: lkorrow, "Top Posts" maybe someone e
Post  41985  by  pmcw       OT: Pace, During a wrap-up after the 1980 election


Post  41986  by  tinljhtkh       Reply
Hello "L"

I agree with your assessment! I had forgotten to mention the pickups of business from worldcom and the capacity that T has to do so! Capacity has always been T's strong suite!
I just don't know about the wireless business these days beyond what I said on the T board in July of 2001: T should have kept AWE!

I went over to the area Cracker Barrel in Marion, Illinois for breakfast this morning to see if they're really taking the stuff out of the trash can to reserve (CNBC report of lawsuit yesterday) I couldn't find the trash can--didn't look to hard for it either;-)--but I did see a lady who looked to be at least ninety with her elderly husband sit down in front of me to eat. Someone that they were supposed to meet wasn't there so she pulls out her cell phone and calls to see what is going on! She gets what is apparently a busy signal and utters an oath that I will not repeat here except to say #### ## ######! I spit orange juice all over the table trying to laugh and not laugh at the same time and she looked over at me and asked if I needed the heimleck maneuver !

They are still the greatest generation and they still know how to speak up for themselves and offer help to others when the time comes!

IMVHO!

Regards,

Tin


Post  41987  by  pricegriz       OT: Yo - Tin!


Post  41988  by  srudek       Reply
ttalknet2-thx for Liu piece. As you said, I'll need to read it a number of times. Will I feel better if I do that, or will I need prozac? For those who missed it (I almost did), here's the link again:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/DI14Dj01.html

maniati: You're an economist, yes? What do you think of this?


Post  41989  by  ferociousD       The Mantra That Means This Time It's Serious
Post  41990  by  ferociousD       srudek-
Post  41991  by  ferociousD       An Open Letter To America