Table On-Topic Summary - 19-Sep-2002
A compilation of this board's financial/economic posts From 42193 to 42278



Post  42193  by  lkorrow       Reply
Thanks, Pace, I'll take a look. Would have to sell some gold stock to buy it, though! 210 posts to go, wow.

Post  42194  by  lkorrow       OT: Tin, funny story, I'm glad I wasn't drinking o
Post  42195  by  Decomposed       OT: Table ON TOPIC SUMMARY Sep 18, 2002


Post  42196  by  spirare       Reply
September 18, 2002, Spot gold in New York settled higher at $320.30 an ounce, up $3.50
an ounce from yesterday?s close causing disappointment among gold
shorts and the anti-gold establishment.
"In response to equity and
dollar weakness, gold in New York opened higher and hasn't looked
back," said Erik Gebhard, an analyst at Altavest.com.
Additionally,
"the specter of a conflict with Iraq is still looming and appears more
and more likely, which will likely haunt traditional investments and
subsequently raise the profile of gold among those seeking a refuge for
their money," he said.
Dealers said resistance in the $322.00-$322.50
region is expected to hold over the near term, but that prices would
extend higher over the coming days should the dollar and stock
markets remain shaky.
"Everybody's bullish," said a floor broker.
"Because of the way the market moved yesterday, it looks like
everyone is looking for smoother flow to continue to the upside today.
With the weaker dollar and weaker stock markets it looks as though
gold is the place to be."
"The dollar is weakening, stocks are
weakening.
We're having resistance up near $320 spot though.
That seems to be the sticking point," said James Pogoda, a vice president
of precious metals at Mitsubishi International Corp.

Silver experienced a recovery following gold higher.
Silver had been due a stretch higher following an extended dip through late August that
dragged prices to "stupid cheap" levels, according to a source at a
large German investment bank.
"Essentially silver got oversold in
August but has been lacking any reason to recover from those levels
quickly," he said. "Now more and more fund buying is being seen,
particularly as the tensions regarding Iraq grow and the equities turn
lower again that has allowed us to catch up with gold which has
managed to recover more impressively since the August lows," he
added.

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $318.70 an ounce, up from
$317.60 an ounce at the morning fixing.
Gold rose on sliding
European stock markets on Wednesday, reversing losses in the
previous session made in the wake of Iraq's offer to open its doors to
United Nations weapons inspectors.
"Gold continues to trade edgily
as U.S.-Iraq political tension continues to ebb and flow.
We expect
further volatile trading through the rest of September as this issue
continues to dominate markets and keep liquidity below normal
levels," said John Reade, metals analyst at UBS Warburg.
The price of gold was also supported on plunging European stock markets as
some investors fled to gold for its safe haven qualities.
The World Gold Council?s Rhona O?Connell notes that in London this morning
the tone remains constructive with dealers continuing to point to gold?s
?safe haven? role against a continued backdrop of political uncertainty
and equity fall-out around the world.

Earlier gold closed at U.S. $318.55 an ounce on Wednesday in Hong
Kong, $3.10 higher from Tuesday's close of $315.45.
Spot gold rose
in Asia, after yesterday?s knee-jerk reaction to the Iraqi
announcement was looked at for what it is. U.S. leaders suggested the
country was not impressed with Iraq's Tuesday concession to
unconditionally readmit U.N. weapons inspectors after 11 years of
noncompliance, traders said.
The price of gold immediately regained
its ?war premium? at the opening of Asian gold markets.
Gold also
gained on the pummeling of Asian stock markets on news of a string
of weaker than expected corporate earnings by many major U.S.
companies.
These factors led some participants who built short
positions Tuesday after Iraq's announcement to rush in to cover, said
a Sydney-based trader.
As well, an overnight announcement from
Toronto-based Barrick Gold Corp., one of the world's three largest
gold miners and an avowed mega-hedger, to further cut its hedge
book, buoyed gold, traders said.
"Gold's looking bullish on the
technical charts despite being overbought," a Tokyo gold trader said,
adding that he expects more buying Thursday.

Japan's central bank announced unprecedented plans on Wednesday
to buy shares directly from banks in a surprise step that drove up
stock prices but put its credibility on the line.
"The central bank must
consider measures that will help banks reduce risks from their
shareholdings," Bank of Japan Governor Masaru Hayami told a news
conference.
The move -- described by ratings agency Standard and
Poor's as "shocking" -- follows a fall in the Nikkei share average to
19-year lows this month, raising concerns about a financial crisis
ahead of half-year book-closing on September 30.
It is now expected
that Standard and Poor's will downgrade Japan?s debt rating again
(which is below that of Latvia and Botswana), even though Standard
& Poor's Corp said the plans would have no impact on the ratings of
the banks or on Japan's sovereign rating.
"This is a big surprise.
It shows the BOJ has a real sense of crisis about the state of the
economy," said Norihiro Fujito, senior investment strategist at
Mitsubishi Securities.
"The central bank is stepping in as the buyer of
last resort, thereby nationalising the risk of cross-shareholding
unwinding," said Jesper Koll, chief economist at Merrill Lynch in
Tokyo.
"I think it is an admission of policy failure," he said.
"A central bank doesn't buy shares, it represents a moral hazard."
"What we should expect now is another big surprise coming from the
government probably due Thursday or Friday including a capital
injection into the banking system," said Masaaki Kanno, chief
economist at J.P. Morgan in Tokyo.
"Mr Koizumi has got to come up
with something of the same magnitude as the BOJ did today," Kanno
said.
Some argue that this measure was necessary because Japan?s
banking system is insolvent and has ceased to function as a viable
independent enterprise.

Asian gold demand remains strong in spite of lower demand from
India rural Indians suffer from a drought that has devastated crops in
most of Asia. However, that lost demand was made up from other
Asian buyers. Japan's gold endures and investors bought nearly twice
as much gold in the first half of 2002 than in the same period last year,
due largely to concerns over the health of the banking industry, the
World Gold Council said on Tuesday.

In the first six months of 2002,
gold consumption in Japan rose to 86.9 tonnes, a 94.8 percent rise
over the year-ago period, the council showed in its second quarterly
report for 2002.

"The public mood is still cautious and the
macroeconomic environment remains fragile, so the outlook for
investment demand therefore remains positive," the World Gold
Council said.
Gold demand in South-east Asia was flat in the first half
of 2002, despite a 17 percent rise in second quarter consumption, led
chiefly by higher jewellery demand in Indonesia, the World Gold
Council said.
Gold consumption in the five countries the council
surveys - Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore -
eased 0.1 percent in the first half of the year.
Purchases in Indonesia
and Vietnam were 27 per cent and 20 per cent higher than a year
earlier.
Gold demand is reported to be off in China though much of
that may be attributed to pent up demand that could be satisfied
should China ever open the long delayed Shanghai Gold Exchange
and commence sales in a new liberalized gold market.
The Shanghai Gold Exchange was supposed to open in July. Meanwhile, the World
Gold Council has reported that several Asian central banks have
reportedly been in discussions concerning raising their holdings of
official gold reserves.

Demand for gold will continue to be strong, in line with Barrick Gold
Corp.'s (ABX) Tuesday announcement it will double earnings and
expand mine operation by 2006, said Chief Executive Randall
Oliphant.
"Demand is still strong for gold," Oliphant said in a CNBC
interview Tuesday. He said people have been looking for alternative
assets in light of weakness in capital markets and talk of war with
Iraq.
Oliphant also said the company will work to keep jewelry
demand high by "doing lots of work to promote jewelry" in the holiday
season.
Placer Dome Inc. (PDG) earlier announced a 20% reduction
in hedging and Newmont Gold (NEM) announced that they would
extinguish inherited Normandy Mining hedges by February.
Meanwhile AngloGold (AU) is continuing to aggressively unwind its
hedgebook as well. The ?day of the hedger? is over.


Comment:

The major market mover for gold over the last 24 hours is
the weakness in the equities markets.

The price of gold gained on the
global market weakness and the subsequent weaker U.S. dollar.

Gold
also continued to be supported as the threat of war between the U.S.
and Iraq remains high while both the U.S. Secretary of Defence
Rumsfeld and President Bush continue to state their case for military
action.

Globally stock markets plunged even as the Japanese
government announced plans to intervene in that countries stock index
(Nikkei 225) and to prop up the failed banking system.

In Europe
stock markets plunged sharply on the heels of falling Asian stock
indices. U.S. stock market indices plunged at the open, however,
shares rebounded in late afternoon trading.

The rumor is that an ?asset
program? was kicked off a couple of hours before the market close.

Supposedly a major program trade was initiated to sell bonds and buy
stocks (perhaps S&P market futures).

Late yesterday afternoon in
New York, banker J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. announced large
losses that triggered what amounted to a global stock market panic.

J.P. Morgan was the biggest Dow loser by far. The banker issued a
third-quarter profit warning late Tuesday, attributing the anticipated
shortfall to high commercial credit costs as well as to weak trading
performance.

A credit rating downgrade from several rating agencies
ensued indicating that the lowered view reflected "sustained
weakness" in the performance of a number of J.P. Morgan's key
businesses.

***J.P. Morgan is the largest holder of gold derivatives with a
notional value in the tens of $trillions and has been accused by several
gold investors of having a vested interest in keeping the price of gold
artificially lower than the free market price would be.

J.P. Morgan has
also been accused of being a major player in the infamous ?Gold
Carry Trade? where borrowed gold was sold and the proceeds
invested in higher yielding interest bearing financial instruments netting
a spread of a few interest points.***

New Monsters Inc. on Wall Street
Credit risk, derivatives in J.P. Morgan horror tale

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B937981B9%2D8B15%2D4A42%2D94EA%2DF3560106D58E%7D&siteid=mktw



Gold Spot (FOREX:XAUUSDO)

TA LT higher highs and higher lows
4 Strong Bull waves to go*^*^*^*^

TA ST the last 5th small correction bearwave
soon complete.

Bull Wave Breakout to follow*^*^*^*^*^

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=dmax


Dollar Index Cash (NYBOT:DXY0)
TA LT lower highs and lower lows...
3 bear waves left...

TA ST small 5th bull wave correction
soon complete, followed by
continuation of the LT bear waves...

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=dmax


http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/081702/maund081702.html

CALVF Risning from oversold conditions - bullish

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund071202.html


Current Price of Gold
http://www.caledoniamining.com
Imo.

(Voluntary Disclosure: Position- Long; ST Rating- Strong Buy; LT Rating- Strong Buy)


Post  42197  by  Tampathom       OT: Why Iraq (in a nutshell)?


Post  42198  by  abveldeh       Reply
pmcw I only listen to the market. It appears to be always right. I don't realy trust Fed numbers either

SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
closes in 6 hrs. 38 mins.
Sep 19, 2002 06:50 NY Time
Bid
322.10
Ask
322.60
Change
+5.30
+1.67%




Post  42199  by  uponroof       Reply
POG at 322.30..
and spiking

OPEC? Israel Bombing? Japan? JPMC? Iraq?....What's causing this?

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html


Post  42200  by  clo       OT:Tampathom, Iraq prior to 9/11?


Post  42201  by  abveldeh       Reply
uponroof IMO Gold is the safest bet against all ather currencies. JPMC is one of the reasons but the whole stockmarket is still way overvalued. Of course with some exeptions but if any major selloff comes the good the bad and the ugly will be sold together.

Markets & Stocks > World Markets


Asia Pacific & Australia
exchange index level change %change date
Australia All Ordinaries 3044.10 -26.60 -0.87% Sep 19
Hong Kong Hang Seng 9427.80 -46.30 -0.49% Sep 19
Jakarta Composite 408.70 -10.43 -2.49% Sep 19
South Korea KOSPI 704.12 +0.25 0.04% Sep 19
South Korea KOSPI 200 88.41 +0.01 0.01% Sep 19
Kuala Lumpur Composite 675.56 -1.65 -0.24% Sep 19
Japan Nikkei 225 9669.62 +197.56 2.09% Sep 19
Japan TOPIX 943.16 +10.74 1.15% Sep 19
New Zealand Top 40 2020.92 -17.90 -0.88% Sep 19
Philippines PHS Composite 1149.03 -4.27 -0.37% Sep 19
Shanghai Composite 1689.95 +25.84 1.55% Sep 19
Singapore Straits Times Index 1439.11 +7.86 0.55% Sep 19
Taiwan Weighted 4491.30 +8.70 0.19% Sep 19
Thailand SET 352.34 -1.66 -0.47% Sep 19



Europe
exchange index level change %change date
Amsterdam AEX Index 313.30 -2.75 -0.87% Sep 19
Amsterdam Total Return 900.40 n/a n/a Sep 19
Frankfurt DAX 3076.19 -48.73 -1.56% Sep 19
London FTSE 3824.00 -41.40 -1.07% Sep 19
Paris CAC 2961.89 -39.09 -1.30% Sep 19
Stockholm Affarsvarlden 141.40 -0.60 -0.42% Sep 19
Vienna ATX 1086.11 -11.81 -1.08% Sep 19
Switzerland Market Index 4776.60 -37.90 -0.79% Sep 19







Post  42202  by  Arkural       Reply
EMC upped by First Albany to a "strong buy" (EMC) By Julie Rannazzisi
First Albany upped its view on storage leader EMC (EMC) to a "strong buy" rating from a "buy" based on valuation, strong software product introductions and expectations that the company can meet its third-quarter projections. Analyst Mark Kelleher feels that EMC has now reached a "significantly undervalued" position and is pleased with the company's new high-value, high-margin software product releases. Additionally, First Albany believes a significant third-quarter shortfall has been priced into EMC's stock and does not think that such a shortfall will materialize. EMC shares fell 7.8 percent on Wednesday to close at $5.40.


CNSMW 7:59am 09/19/02




Post  42203  by  clo       Reply
Housing starts are down (-2.2%), Jobless claims down 11,000 to 424000, Continuing claims 71000 to 3.65 million. clo

Post  42204  by  Tampathom       OT: Iraq Promise Puts U.S. Back on the Spot
Post  42205  by  pmcw       OT: Tampa


Post  42206  by  tinljhtkh       Reply
This has all the makings of a very nasty day!

Morgan Stanley is the second brokerage to miss. We could discount JPMChase but we can't discount this! The EDS situation does not look good! Continuing jobless claims are up again! More bombings is Israel! Comments last night that the United States now spends more on defense that the next 20 countries combined! By 2005 we will spend more than the entire world--this is not a defense budget, it is an offense budget! Our increase in defense this year is more than the entire United Kingdom defense budget! (this is per Newsweek International Edition editor interview last night on the News With Brian Williams)

There are now fears that an Iraqi invasion will spark a war with the entire Arab and Muslim world! We must apparently invade in january or february because the desert heat is too severe to do it any other time of year in the type of protective gear that our soldiers need against Saddam's biological warfare agents--if he chooses to use them!

I wonder if this weeks increase in inventories is good news or not! It could be the start of another inventory buildup sparked by lack of sales! We all remember how the recession started--with a dramatic slowdown in sales not forseen or seen in quite a while!

Commoditization and loss of pricing power seems to be the order of the day across many sectors as we go forward! Earnings warnings, earnings warning, earnings warnings!!!

If we aren't getting any more traction out of the worlds greatest defense budget than this?????

IMVHO!

Regards,

Tin




Post  42207  by  pdowd       Reply
Going Fishing !!

Yes tinljtkh ---It looks really ugly ----I am going to counteract this ugliness by packing a picknic lunch and cranking up my boat to head out to Lake Ponchartrain for a day of swamp photography, fishing,crab trap checking , reflection, and cabernet consumption !!

Regards and best wishes to all
PD.





Post  42208  by  clo       OT:pdowd, maybe next time you can make it a group


Post  42209  by  clo       Reply
Does Affordable Housing Really Exist? Not According to NY/NJ Area Residents

PR Newswire - Thursday, September 19, 2002

Washington Mutual Releases Eye-Opening Survey, Hosts Celebrity-Studded Walk-a-Thons for Affordable Housing

NEW YORK, Sept. 19 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- It's no secret that housing prices in New York and New Jersey are spiraling out of control. According to a recent survey conducted by Roper ASW on behalf of Washington Mutual, two-thirds of New York and New Jersey residents (67%) say they are deeply concerned about the affordability of housing. This issue affects all income levels and includes both renters and home-owners.

According to the survey, top affordable housing issues among NY and NJ residents include:


- Half of the current home-owners in NY and NJ say they only live in
their community because they can afford it and would opt to live
somewhere else if they could, but right now many of them are just
fighting to stay afloat.

- More than eight in 10 home-owners say purchasing their home at today's
market prices rather than the price they paid would be difficult for
them, and 54% of owners say it would be very difficult for them.
Renters are in the same boat; more than 8 in 10 renters in NY and NJ
saying it would be somewhat difficult for them to find something
affordable and 69% say it would be very difficult.

- Half (48%) of residents say they are using a higher percentage of
their income to pay for housing than they did just five years ago.

- More than seven in 10 (72%) say kids being raised in their communities
today will not be able to afford housing there when they are young
adults.

- Only four in 10 believe there is at least a fair amount of housing
available for seniors in their communities.

- The problem isn't just a concern for the poor. Almost as many
residents with incomes of $50,000 or more are concerned about the
affordability of housing as the percentage who are making less than
that amount.


To raise money and awareness for affordable housing, Washington Mutual is underwriting four concurrent "Walk On Home" walk-a-thons in New York and New Jersey on Sunday, Sept. 29th.

"It is a dramatic statement when eight in ten current home owners feel it would difficult to purchase their home at today's prices," said John Benevento, Washington Mutual Group Manager. "These findings clearly quantify how universal this problem is. We're hoping to mobilize walkers throughout New York and New Jersey to raise money for local housing organizations who are working to find a solution."

From vacations to savings account contributions, the belt straps are as tight as they can get for 50% of all area residents. And, 67% of residents in their homes for less than two years say they have had to sacrifice contributions to savings accounts for such things as retirement and college. Almost all income levels are being forced to give up things they want and need, with only those making $100,000 or more a year reporting significantly fewer compromises to their lifestyle.

In addition, 74% say their community offers "a lot" or "a fair amount" of housing options for people in upper income brackets, but only 59% feel there is a fair amount of housing for the middle class. The situation becomes significantly worse for lower income residents with just 32% believing there are adequate housing options for them.

With four of the top 10 hottest housing markets located in the metro area, this is an issue that affects a tremendous number of people. According to the National Association of Home Realtors, the four NY-NJ areas in the top 10 include:


- Nassau/Suffolk, NY #1
- Atlantic City, NJ #3
- New York City, NY #4
- Middlesex/Hunderdon County, NJ #10



"We are in the middle of an affordable housing draught in the NY and NJ area," said Benevento. "When Washington Mutual's consumer bank arrived in the New York area this spring, we promised our customers that we would be active members of this community. Through our walk-a-thons, we're trying to fulfill this promise by raising funds to support the local groups who've been working to combat our region's housing crisis."

About Walk On Home:

On Sept. 29th, Washington Mutual will host four concurrent walk-a-thon events in Manhattan, Long Island, Westchester and New Jersey. The Walk On Home events will raise money for approximately 150 local affordable housing organizations that serve the New York and New Jersey area. These organizations provide housing assistance in a variety of ways including rehabilitating houses in under-developed neighborhoods, providing housing and financial counseling for new and first-time home owners, subsidizing rental units for lower-income families, combating housing discrimination, relocation assistance and providing housing for seniors and people with special needs. Washington Mutual is completely underwriting all of the events to ensure that 100% of all proceeds raised through the walk-a-thon will go directly to these organizations to fund their individual initiatives and projects.

Each walk-a-thon route will be approximately 5 miles, and at the conclusion of each, block parties await participants as they finish their trek. Food, games, raffles and a free concert by some of the entertainment industry's top names, including such renowned artists as Jewel, Patti LaBelle, Wyclef Jean and Joan Osborne, will greet participants as they cross the finish line. In addition, all participants will be entered into a sweepstakes for the chance to have Washington Mutual pay three months of their mortgage or rent payments -- up to $10,000. One walker from each location will receive this Mortgage/Rent Paydown.*

"Walk On Home" locations will include:


- Central Park to Morningside Park in Manhattan -- musical entertainment
includes Wyclef Jean and the Antibalas Afrobeat Orchestra
- Heckscher State Park in Long Island -- featuring Patti LaBelle and the
Long Island Philharmonic
- Croton Point State Park -- with guest performers Jewel and Diana King
- Branch Brook Park in North Newark -- with special performances by Joan
Osborne and the Blind Boys of Alabama



Volunteers can sign up for their neighborhood walk-a-thon at any of the Washington Mutual's 130 financial centers in New York and New Jersey or online at http://www.walkonhome.com . When registering, volunteers can look through a directory of participating charities to choose the local organization they want to walk and raise money for. And the walk-a-thon is not limited to walkers -- persons who rely on a wheel chair or similar mobility aids can complete the trek as well. For those who cannot join Washington Mutual on September 29th, but still want to help, they can sponsor a walker or make a donation to the affordable housing organization of their choice.

Methodology:

This study was conducted by RoperASW via telephone, among a sample of 1,602 adults 18 or older. The sample was drawn from New York City, Westchester County, Northern New Jersey, and Long Island, with approximately 400 respondents from each location.

About Washington Mutual Inc.

Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) with a history dating back to 1889, Washington Mutual is a national financial services company that provides a diversified line of products and services to consumers and small-to-mid-sized businesses. At June 30, 2002, Washington Mutual and its subsidiaries has assets of $261.28 billion. Washington Mutual currently operates more than 2,500 consumer banking, mortgage lending, commercial banking, consumer finance and financial services offices throughout the nation. Washington Mutual's press releases are available at http://www.wamu.com .

For a copy of the survey results, please contact Pattie Hallock at 212-213-7233.

* THE SWEEPSTAKES: No purchase or Walkathon sponsorship required to enter or win sweepstakes, but must participate in the walk-a-thon. Employees of Washington Mutual, Inc. or other Washington Mutual companies, and immediate family members and persons living in the same household of such employees, are not eligible. See Official Sweepstakes rules for additional eligibility requirements and details, available at all local Washington Mutual financial centers.

MAKE YOUR OPINION COUNT - Click Here http://tbutton.prnewswire.com/prn/11690X86162107

SOURCE Washington Mutual Inc.

/CONTACT: Derek Aney of Washington Mutual Inc., +1-646-521-3327; or Pattie Hallock of MS&L, +1-212-213-7233, for Washington Mutual Inc./

/Web site: http://www.walkonhome.com

http://www.wamu.com /



(Voluntary Disclosure: Position- Long)



Post  42210  by  Tampathom       OT: Enjoy it while you can. Ponchartrain could be
Post  42211  by  tinljhtkh       OT: Arkural!


Post  42212  by  pacemakernj       Reply
Linda,RE:XOMA, they made the announcement on Tuesday that the phase 3 trials went well. They will seek approval by the end of the year. The stock at 6.40 imo, is still a good buy. I am looking for 10-12 by January. Pace.


Post  42213  by  tinljhtkh       OT: pdowd!
Post  42214  by  pacemakernj       OT: Tampa, you've missed nothing. As far as puttin


Post  42215  by  pacemakernj       Reply
Clo, I am one of those 8 in 10 who could not afford to buy my house at its current price. But what is truly astonishing is the price of housing at the Jersey shore. Those prices are flat out insane. It is not unusual to be paying $500,000 for a summer home! But, imo it has peaked. The big issue that no one is focusing on is property taxes and their impact on the price of the house. NJ State budget is a train wreck. Our governor has passed along very large price increases in the wealthier counties mine went up 8% this year alone. At that rate my property taxes will double in 9 years. That will keep a lid on prices and imo cause them to drop. There will be people paying $20,000 on property taxes for an average (in northern NJ) home. This simply will not last. JMO, Pace.



Post  42216  by  abveldeh       Reply
In case you are capable of german, read this, you will be shocked:

http://www.manager-magazin.de/koepfe/mzsg/0,2828,177197,00.html

http://www.manager-magazin.de/koepfe/mzsg/0,2828,184295,00.html

http://www.manager-magazin.de/koepfe/mzsg/0,2828,206667,00.html

IMO Gore Vidal is a great guy with views that should be heard:

http://www.google.at/search?q=gore+vidal&ie=ISO-8859-1&hl=de&meta=






Post  42217  by  pmcw       Reply
TYC / Bunkin' with Bubba

This is exactly what I was suggesting when I said that we need to take the profit and loss equation out of corporate crime.

"Manhattan Supreme Court Judge Michael Obus set a hearing date for next week to rule on the bail issues and determine whether Kozlowski and Swartz will face jail at Riker's Island, one of the nation's toughest prisons."

Regards, pmcw




Post  42218  by  clo       Reply
pace, that makes 2 of us! Now as for my taxes, this year the increase is 13%.

BUT that doesn't account for the relief of the Star program, this saved me $1015.00. So when I add that to my current bill that gives me an increase of 43%...

Next year the Star program is due to end... ;( clo




Post  42219  by  clo       Reply
pace, that tax bill doesn't include my property taxes, that was just for the school tax bill. The other part is due later in the year! clo




Post  42220  by  jeffbas       Reply
uponroof, as I have noted before prices aren't totally immaterial. In my neck of the woods, the housing recession at the end of the 1980's hurt condo prices enough that it paid some to walk away from the mortgage. However, by and large, I think most buyers make intelligent (monthly payment based) decisions, don't plan to "trade" houses, take fixed rate mortgages, and aren't subject to margin calls.

I don't think these mortgages with low payments necessarily have to become a "problem" to anyone if rates rise. They are typically packaged and sold in the market to investors. If you buy a 10 year Treasury today at 4%, is it a "problem" if rates rise 2%?


Post  42221  by  danking_70       OT: Tampa, you missed...
Post  42222  by  jeffbas       OT: pace, exactly! Ten years ago I used to write l


Post  42223  by  lkorrow       Reply
Tin, great post on Sept. 11. What is this Chrisitan right issue on Disney (I'm afraid to ask)?




Post  42224  by  lkorrow       Reply
What could possibly be going on with KRY? Down 8.4% while everything else is up!




Post  42225  by  pricegriz       Reply
abv

Should interested people not be capable of Deutsch or other languages they may find the attached on line translator extremely useful as have I. Verbatim it ain't but none the less still pretty useful.

Regards - Griz

http://www.translate.ru/eng/


Post  42226  by  lkorrow       OT: Tin, Deep Woods Off is what I'm probably poiso
Post  42227  by  lkorrow       OT: pdowd, one West Nile view:


Post  42228  by  abveldeh       Reply
price thanks for the link


Post  42229  by  danking_70       OT: Tanks to Arafat


Post  42230  by  Arkural       Reply
Visa readies wireless smart cards

"...The credit card company said Thursday that it plans to set up a new system that uses smart cards fitted with radio-frequency chips (sometimes called RF identification, or RFID, tags) that will allow people to conduct a transaction, such as paying a subway fare or buying a soda, without having to fish for change or swipe a credit card...The new smart cards will use wireless chips that conform to an international wireless standard known as ISO 14443...Sue Gordon-Lathrop, Visa's vice president for emerging consumer environments, said in a statement. "This latest effort and other compelling initiatives tied to chip and magnetic stripe technologies move us closer to our goal of displacing cash...."

http://msnbc-cnet.com.com/2100-1017-958612.html?tag=fd_top




Post  42231  by  uponroof       Reply
Linda KRY

If I had to guess some sort of manipulation to keep shares cheap as they are about to become part of their financing collateral, or, in the event of a takeover....cheap shares for the buyer.

In any event...unless we discover an ugly truth lurking somewhere deep in the agreement with VZ this is only temporary. IMHO.

Yes I'm very disappointed, PR was handled poorly in that Junior Samples could've put lipstick on this beauty. Now we are going through an unexplained share drop. Add them up and you may see the case for shares (pre determined values) as collateral for financing? Waiting for the second, third, and fourth shoe.




Post  42232  by  pacemakernj       Reply
Linda/Roof RE: KRY, VVV had a press release last night that basically said the whole agreement between KRY and the CVG is nonsense. I cannot print it out but go to Bloomberg.com punch up KRY than hit KRY news and the PR is there. IMO, there would be no way KRY could make that announcement if they did not have a deal. But I will be at the conference next Tuesday MO will be speaking on this announcement at 10:15 AM at the Marriot Marquis. It is free and any one can attend it's a gold conference.

Roof, your always good on this stuff any other thoughts?

Pace.


Post  42233  by  lkorrow       OT: pdowd, wow, does that ever sound good! The Ame
Post  42234  by  pacemakernj       OT: Jeffbas, right on! My wife and I ALWAYS vote n
Post  42235  by  tinljhtkh       OT: "L"


Post  42236  by  lkorrow       Reply
Clo, housing may be more affordable soon with a 11-12% mortgage default rate. I wonder what is driving the defaults (credit card defaults are also rising). On Long Island, we can't believe all the huge new homes that were built and sold. I wonder if the people buying them, and there was rumored to be a lot of parents buying or contributing for their kids, considered the carrying charges, especially electricity. Another case for those solar panels!

p. s. thanks for the top post response, it's a mystery . . .




Post  42237  by  beusa_1       Reply
GOLD Spot Last trade $323.0/oz Change +$2.73/oz

***Yet precious metals prices are still a bargain considering the fear of the unknown as far as
world events and extremely volatile equities markets are concerned.***

CALVF going to ROCK*^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

http://chart.bigcharts.com/bc3/intchart/frames/chart.asp?symb=calvf&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=131072&lf2=128&lf3=256&type=2&size=2&state=8&sid=2216&style=320&time=20&freq=3&comp=NO%5FSYMBOL%5FCHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=677&mocktick=1


GOLD LT TREND BULL WAVE*^*^*^*^*^

Gold Spot (FOREX:XAUUSDO)

TA LT higher highs and higher lows
4 Strong Bull waves to go*^*^*^*^

TA ST the last 5th small correction bearwave
complete.

Bull Wave Breakout now to follow*^*^*^*^*^

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=dmax


Dollar Index Cash (NYBOT:DXY0)
TA LT lower highs and lower lows...
3 bear waves left...

TA ST small 5th bull wave correction
soon complete, followed by
continuation of the LT bear waves...

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=dmax


http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/081702/maund081702.html

CALVF Risning from oversold conditions - bullish

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund071202.html


Current Price of Gold
http://www.caledoniamining.com
Imo.

(Voluntary Disclosure: Position- Long; ST Rating- Strong Buy; LT Rating- Strong Buy)






Post  42238  by  uponroof       Reply
pace...'Greenmail'

VNVNF is positioning (through radical rhetoric-PR of last night) for a payoff to shut them up.

This saga has so much baggage that despite the ridiculousness of VVV's claims investors are leary after 4-5 years of legal wrangling. Venezuela has taken out full page advertisements in Canadian newspapers to state their disdain for VVV and their tactics. But unless you are aware of all this, you cannot understand the politics of the situation. VVV prays on this lack of understanding and is looking to blackmail in exchange for 'going away quietly'.

I don't know who is selling but I am about to add at these levels!


Post  42239  by  lkorrow       OT: Twenty years ago today -- smile!


Post  42240  by  lkorrow       Reply
Pace, XOMA's almost down to 6. . . .



Post  42241  by  Warstud       Reply
EDS down 50% eom.



Post  42242  by  uponroof       Reply
RBA General Comments

MELT DOWN !
The world is rapidly melting down economically. This should not shock anyone. We have been discussing it. Just hang on. Make sure you are liquid.

The 10 year treasury yield is at 3.76% as I write this and is down 8 basis points so far this morning. Truly amazing. Treasury buyers at these levels are doing so not because they believe there is opportunity or reward potential in treasuries but because they don't see any place to invest for principal appreciation and simply want a risk free place to hide. Although some of this is being driven by convexity buying by the GSE's and other mortgage lenders most of it is simply large institutions hiding.

Validating that this is not purely convexity buying is the fact that gold is up $2.40 this morning at $324.20. This will again raise concerns about the gold derivatives at JPM and the potential for there to be a developing short squeeze in that market which could drive gold prices rapidly higher as JPM has to cover their shorts.

The cyclical and secular news all over the world is beginning to mesh into a geo-synchronous global slow down with long term implications.

The US Federal Budget is expanding at the fastest pace in 10 years.

The German Government just announced a TAX hike on corporations form 25% to 26.5%

The BOJ just announced that it would start buying bad debt and equities away from the money center banks in Japan.

All of these are self defeating from an economic stand point.

Morgan Stanley announced Q3 earnings at 55 cents per share versus expectations of 67 cents and Q2 earnings of 72 cents. That is both a huge miss by the analysts and a reduction in earnings of 23.61% in one quarter. That is a very large drop and announced the day after the JPM loss announcements and the risk problems at FNM. All of the financials in the US are down in premarket activity.

DURATION GAP

As per your many inquiries:

The duration dap at FNM is the difference between how long they have borrwoed money versus ho long they will hold the mortgage that was funded with the borrowed money. The longer the borrowing term the more expensive the money is to them and the longer they must hold a mortgage for it to be profitable. If the duration gap goes negative, as it has, it means that FNM is borrowing money at to high a rate for too long a time in realtion to how long they hold the mortgage that was funded with the money they borrowed. As loans are refinanced FNM is forced to buy treasuries with the money that flows back into them from the refinance. This drives yields further down, forcing mortgage rates down and increasing the refainnace activity which causes the duration gap to widen further. Get it? At 14 months it means that FNM is borrowing money for a period of 14 months longer than the average time they hold a mortgage funded with the money they borrowed.



Fixed Mortgage Interest Rates Reach Record Lows
Refinancing activity represented 73.6 percent of total applications, increasing from 72.5 percent the previous week. The highest refinance share of 78.4 percent occurred the week ended November 9, 2002 . The share of ARM activity increased slightly to 12.5 percent from 12.3 percent the previous week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages decreased to a record low 5.90 percent from 6.10 percent the previous week, with points increasing to 1.59 from 1.54 the previous week (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The previous record low of 5.99 percent was reached the week ended August 30, 2002. The 30-year fixed rate has now been below 6.20 percent for seven consecutive weeks and below 6.50 percent for 13 consecutive weeks.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed rate mortgages decreased to a record low of 5.34 percent from 5.44 percent the previous week, with points decreasing to 1.38 from 1.45 the previous week (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The previous record low of 5.40 percent was reached the week ended August 30, 2002. The 15-year fixed rate has now been below 5.50 percent for three consecutive weeks and below 6.00 percent for 14 consecutive weeks.


The average contract interest rate for 1-year ARMs was 4.22 percent, increasing from 4.16 percent the previous week, with points remaining the same at 1.10 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.

http://www.garp.com//newsfeed.asp?Category=6&MyFile=2002-09-19-5474.html



Charts show European stocks heading for meltdown
By Marius Bosch and Huw Jones

FRANKFURT/LONDON (Reuters) - European stock indices, already battered to near five-year lows, may be heading for a further meltdown with most teetering just above key suuport levels, according to technical analysts.


The worst hit index, Germany's DAX (Xetra: ^GDAXI - news) , has already started to break down with no technical support left with the index on the edge of an abyss at lows not seen since early February 1997.


The outlook for other European stock indices was also dismal.


"Basically, we are pretty close to meltdown," said Nick Glydon, technical analyst at J.P. Morgan Chase bank in London.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/020919/80/d9yi9.html



Entrepreneurial spirit suffering

By Jim Hopkins, USA TODAY

SAN FRANCISCO U.S. entrepreneurship is not what it was.

For the first time in more than 50 years, entrepreneurs are failing to lead the United States out of recession, government data suggest.

The impact is broad. Experts say flagging entrepreneurship might partly explain the wobbly rebound: Fewer start-ups mean fewer new jobs and innovations

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-09-17-entrepreneurs2_x.htm



US Mortgage regulator-no plans to release risk report
By Mark Felsenthal
WASHINGTON, Sept 18 (Reuters) - The government regulator of U.S. mortgage giant Fannie Mae does not plan to make public a new weekly assessment of a key risk indicator for the company, a spokeswoman for the regulator said on Wednesday.

In addition, a key lawmaker criticized the regulator for not stepping in earlier to take action on the rising risk measure.

The regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, told members of Congress on Monday it would generate weekly reports after the interest rate risk indicator rose last month. Fannie Mae reported its duration gap - the match between cash flows from its mortgage assets and debt liabilities - climbed to a minus fourteen months, meaning the company's vulnerability to interest rate swings has increased. WEEKLY ORAL PRESENTATIONS OFHEO's weekly reports will be oral presentations by the regulator's chief examiner to the director, a spokeswoman for the regulator said. There may be supporting internal documents for each report, but the regulator does not envision releasing the results of the review, the spokeswoman added.

"So far we have no plans to release this information to the public," the OFHEO official said.

The regulator expects to provide information to members of Congress on request, the spokeswoman added.

Meanwhile, a long-time critic of Fannie Mae and its regulator, Rep. Richard Baker, wrote to OFHEO Director Armando Falcon on Wednesday criticizing the federal overseer for missing the mortgage finance firm's growing risk. "OFHEO's recognition of Fannie Mae's problem is overdue and your delaying allowed unacceptable levels of risk to continue for far too long," the Louisiana Republican wrote.

OFHEO has said in recent months that Fannie Mae and its mortgage finance relative Freddie Mac both had adequate capital to survive big interest rate swings.

Freddie Mac announced on Wednesday that the match between cash flows from its mortgage assets and debt liabilities was zero.


FANNIE: NO IMPACT ON EARNINGS

The news about Fannie Mae's duration gap and OFHEO's concern rattled markets. Shares of the company's stock tumbled on Monday and Tuesday before rebounding by 2 percent on Wednesday to $67.60 in trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

Yields on Treasuries slipped early in the week as investors anticipated that Fannie Mae would purchases them to rebalance its portfolio.
A Merrill Lynch analyst on Wednesday cut his investment rating on the company to "neutral" from "buy," citing the company's challenge of reducing the imbalance between cash flows.

Meanwhile, Fannie Mae told investors and traders that its recent large duration gap does not forebode anything negative for its portfolio or its projected earnings. The company posted second-quarter earnings of $1.46 billion, or $1.44 per share in July, and said at the time earnings are on track to exceed the long-term trend in 2002.

The mortgage financier said its duration gap is understandable given mortgage interest rates that, at near 6.25 percent for the popular 30-year fixed-rate home loan, are at 30-year lows.

Fannie Mae said it is rebalancing its portfolio by funding longer-term mortgage assets with shorter-term liabilities that have lower costs now thanks to low interest rates. The company aims to keep its duration gap between plus and minus six months.

Investors did not view the duration gap as a long-term problem for the mortgage financier.

"I do not see this as a credit risk," said Marty Shafer, portfolio manager at Principal Capital Income Investors in Des Moines, Iowa, which manages $40 billion in bonds. A small rise in interest rates could quickly rebalance the company's cash flows, Shafer said.







Post  42243  by  lkorrow       Reply
Thanks roof, too many shoes!

Post  42244  by  ferociousD       The regional Schwaebisches Tagblatt newspaper


Post  42245  by  lkorrow       Reply
Pace, roof, here it is. Stock's tanking further, word spreading, perhaps?

Vannessa responds to Crystallex's Las Cristinas announcement

VANCOUVER, Sept. 17 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ - Today's announcement by Crystallex International Corp., of the signing of a contract with the CVG for the development of the Las Cristinas deposit in Venezuela, necessitates a number of explanations by the parties who purportedly signed the contract as well as comments by Vannessa for the benefit of its shareholders.

Since the contract was not made public (except for excerpts quoted in the Crystallex news release), a full statement from Vannessa will be reserved. More important, at this time, are the following questions: Is there in fact a contract? Why was the contract not made available? Why did Crystallex's partner - the CVG, not announce a contract? As late as yesterday, the CVG announced in their communication that, "the representatives of the communities have a list of demands which will be analyzed by the team which is discussing the contract terms" and, further, "during the coming week our team will discuss the technical, financial and social clauses which will form part of the contract".

Assuming that all of the above work was done overnight and a contract was signed, Vannessa would like to inform its shareholders of the following:

1) Without final word on the pending Supreme Court decision, the CVG does not have the authority to enter into any binding contract with respect to the Las Cristinas concessions.

2) It is very likely that the contract as quoted by Crystallex is not legal. According to Vannessa's council, Venezuelan Law and its Constitution dictate precisely under which conditions sub-contracts can be issued. From what can be observed in today's announcement, the agreement does not, even remotely, comply with the applicable laws and regulations.

3) The fact that Crystallex announced that it will pay (which indicates it has not as yet paid) US$15 Million for "drill data, cores, studies..." raises the question of ownership of such information. The CVG is still legally in
partnership with MINCA (Vannessa's subsidiary through its 100% shareholding in Vannessa de Venezuela C.A.) and as such is bound by contractual obligations and shareholder agreements which include strict confidentiality clauses. A sale of MINCA's assets would be illegal because the assets were established by the investment of US$170 Million and MINCA, and the CVG as a shareholder, still owe the invested capital to its lenders.

4) Both parties to the agreement have at their disposal legal firms and it can, therefore, be assumed that due diligence would have been undertaken and the signing and purchase has been made with the full knowledge of the encumbrances of the assets none of which have been made public. It is very unlikely that this knowledge (and related liabilities) can be covered by the disclaimer attached to the release which states "...there can be no assurances that such statements will prove to be accurate..."

Full story: http://www.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?T=marketsquote99_news.ht&s=APYf7FxbwVmFubmVz




Post  42246  by  lkorrow       Reply
beusa, "rock," is that ballast for a sinking ship?



Post  42247  by  lkorrow       Reply
KRY looks like nice positive inflow 11:15-1PM, +$100K, when there was a sale bringing it back to a net slightly positive cashflow until another sale at just before 2PM for a -$50K net. By 3PM, back to flat. Can't see further, it's delayed a bit. Looks like buying on the dip.

Post  42248  by  clo       OT: And when you consider all the "smart miss


Post  42249  by  pacemakernj       Reply
Linda, RE: XOMA, we should hold 6 but heavy selling in the entire biotech sector is dragging it down. This stock is very volatile I'm sorry I did not sell on the news the other day. That what happens when you get greedy. I still think it's a buy though. Pace.




Post  42250  by  uponroof       Reply
POG and goldshares...

POG up again in NY access market.
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

Shares are not responding in kind to the obvious upward pressure which will not go away despite weapons inspection concessions, etc. As much pressure that POG is carrying, the shares are not convinced the 325-330 cieling will be broken this time, and so the meager or flat action today.

IMHO the stage is set for higher POG and lower stock market over the next 4+ months. 325-330 will be taken out once Iraqi war begins, if not sooner, due to natural market forces. The recent pressure, which really showed itself this morning is not war or terror based, it's coming from institutional buying, and banks are doing it (unconfirmed rumor).

This is the beginning of gold market equilibrium (much higher POG) if the rumor has merit (BB and big houses covering shorts). Perhaps the Japanese Banking debachle and JPMC in scuba were just too much to ignore this time. In any event, goldshares will fly once 330 is removed. I will be buying back shares in the coming days if the trend continues, as the market allows.

Leg #2 about to commence?

Any thoughts out there?




Post  42251  by  pacemakernj       Reply
Roof, KRY: VVV scared a heck of a lot of people today. They are very desperate. They took a big gamble and lost. Not good for the shareholders. BTW, if they were right the stock is not acting like it. It got no bounce on that PR. To me that says it all. But, from what I understand they are just trying to see how much $ they can extract from CVG as their payoff to mitigate their losses. JMO, Pace.




Post  42252  by  pacemakernj       Reply
Roof, RE: POG. I could not agree more. There are so many people in denial about where we are at economically it is LOL. The amount of companies warning this 3rd quarter is far ahead of last. BTW, I hate it when I'm right but didn't I say this would happen! What astounded me today was Mr. O'Neil confirmed 3% GDP this qtr. and next. Can you imagine what 1% looks like! I can honestly say I am growing more pessimistic by the day. You just can't imagine how difficult things are right now. When I say there is no visibility I mean it! It is literally day to day. I am hoping by November I have some good news because I don't have any right now. But back to gold. I said that AG will have to lower rates, he'll do it kicking and screaming but he'll do it. Check out the yield curve. Another one of my key indicators. It is flattening out. Not good. Means we'll have rate cuts which will weaken the dollar. It's the only thing left to do. I also said a 4% long bond by September and 3% by January I am sticking to it. Look for mortgage rates to fall to 4.5% by January. Gold will be $400 at least by Christmas if not sooner. The noose is getting tighter. Also expect many more layoffs especially at the brokerage's and banks. It's going to get interesting. Pace.

Post  42253  by  clo       OT: Should we believe this administration?


Post  42254  by  uponroof       Reply
pace...you're right again...

and allow me to be the first to say you've nailed it every step of the way.

Now...get out the popcorn and tune into Japan tonight.

Godzilla vs. King Kong Dollar

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u




Post  42255  by  jeffbas       Reply
lkorrow, is that info from a free source (and usable on other stocks)?




Post  42256  by  toneo123       Reply
my suggestion is to look at the price action of gold during the gulf war 1990. doesn't lend much credibility to POG rising once the war starts, more like a drop as the unknown is now known, and as the end of the war comes gold will drop even further. right now gold is enjoying a war premium that will quickly dissipate as the timeline is layed out.



Post  42257  by  pmcw       Reply
COMS, There's much more about this company that I don't like than there is stuff I do. However, what's not to like about positive cash flow? I wonder how long it will take for someone to figure out, on a cash basis, they are doing MUCH better than they are GAAP. Cash earnings are what make the world go round and they are the root of what Buffett calls "owner's earnings". Since everything paper sucks today, they might get pulled into the undertow hitting three and change. If they do, they might make a very nice trade up to near $5. Totally discount their goodwill, cut the value of thier inventory by 25% and slash their property and plant by half and they are still worth a big pile of money. Regards, pmcw

Post  42258  by  ferociousD       XOMA-


Post  42259  by  pacemakernj       Reply
Ferocious, RE: XOMA, been trading it since August right before the breakout. It had a very good chart until today. But maybe the selloff in biotech is temporary. I may get out tomarrow. At least they've finally seem to be on track with this drug of their's. Pace.



Post  42260  by  beusa_1       Reply
Sept. 19, 2002, Spot GOLD Market Update; in New York settled higher at $322.60 an ounce, up $2.30 from
yesterday?s close.
The precious metals market found support from weakness in
the broader stock market. The price of gold was also higher early Thursday on
bank and fund buying sparked by the weaker U.S. dollar relative to other
currencies, a flare-up in violence in the Middle East and sagging equity markets.
The White House, waging a two-front campaign for action against Iraq, on
Thursday officially asked the U.S. Congress to authorize the use of force, if
necessary, in its showdown with Iraq, and continued urging a tough United
Nations mandate for returning arms inspectors.
The proposed solution is that
Congress would authorize President George W. Bush to use "all means that he
determines to be appropriate, including force, in order to enforce the United
Nations Security Council Resolutions" and to "defend the national security interest
of the United States."
"He still seems gung ho to go after Iraq, so from that
perspective gold is still going get that support," said David Meger, a metals analyst
at Alaron Trading in Chicago.
"In general there is a stronger demand base for gold
equities as a safe haven, and the Treasuries, than there is for bullion itself," said
David Rinehimer, head of commodities research at Salomon Smith Barney.
Larry Edelson, a managing editor at Weiss Research, a financial markets information
provider, emphasized that "gold is in a new long-term bull market and is very
undervalued on inflation adjusted terms."

As a result, "I expect gold to play catch-up and move to the $450 to $500 level in the next two years," he said.

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $322.25 an ounce, up from $320.15 an
ounce at the morning fixing.
"Overall technical studies remain clearly bullish and
while immediate rally attempts should meet nearby resistance starting at $322 then
$327, a return to the $331 high is likely in the coming days/weeks," said Saxo
Bank in a report.
A Standard Bank of London market comment stated that ?with
tensions in the Middle East simmering and the gold entering a period of typically
strong seasonal physical demand the outlook for the yellow metal is positive and a
test of resistance at $325 is not an unreasonable near term target.?
John Reade,
metals analyst at UBS Warburg also saw support for the precious metal coming
from a soft dollar:
"Short term direction in the gold market will continue to be
found in moves in the dollar and on risk aversion factors...
Resistance at $324 and
support at $318.50 will probably mark the range for gold for the balance of the
week."
comments from German Presidential candidate Edmond Stoiber earlier
today that he is against Bundesbank gold sales (on the context of cutting the
budget deficit) have helped an already buoyant market, said Rhona O'Connell at
World Gold Council.
"Dealers remain friendly to the market, given the financial
and political circumstances, aided by a constructive technical picture," said
O'Connell.
"Near-term risks to the gold price are still on the upside," said
Howard Patten, at Barclays Capital, citing fresh banking concerns in the US, a
weaker dollar and equities.

Earlier gold settled higher by $1.90 in Hong Kong to $320.45 an ounce.
The price of gold remained in a flat range as Asian markets digested the news of the
Bank of Japan?s plan for buying stocks from insolvent Japanese banks.
The Nikkei 225 rose higher adding to yesterday?s gains. "It is not going to trade
outside of the range...but I'm slightly bullish," said Desmond Wong, senior
manager at Standard Bank London in Hong Kong.
"We haven't seen any special
features in the market today, but we are holding well," Wong said, putting the
medium-term trading range at US$306-326 an ounce.
Technically, spot gold
looked like it would break through US$320 in later trade on Thursday, said
Jimmy Pan, chief dealer at Hing Fung Goldsmiths in Hong Kong.
"After breaking
through US$300 we have seen a step-by-step advance," Pan said, referring to the
market's climb from US$298.45 an ounce on August 1. "Volumes have been light
and direction difficult to discern, but we do look set for another upward test," said
a Hong Kong trader.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries left supply limits on hold
despite worries among consumer nations about the impact of high energy costs on
the world economy.
"Prices are OK for producers and consumers," insisted Saudi
Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi. "This is not a decision we took lightly.
We had to take
account of many uncertainties including Iraq."
Gold held firm as OPEC producers
signalled that they were not willing to raise oil production.
Oil inventories are
contracting, however, Iraqi officials have said that they are willing to submit to
United Nations weapons inspections and that temporarily depressed prices
thereby taking pressure off of OPEC ministers meeting in Osaka, Japan.
However, the threat of military action by the United States looks likely.
Higher oil
prices raise the specter of inflation, adding luster to gold's traditional reputation as
a safe store of value.
Stock market indices in Europe and the United States fell in
reaction to the OPEC decision.
With fuel demand rising ahead of the northern
hemisphere winter and the United States pressing the case against Iraq, fuel bills
may quickly come under further upward pressure.
"Oil market fundamentals will
continue to strengthen over the next few weeks but prices will also be determined
by the war risk premium and that will depend on how loud the war drums are
beating," said consultant Gary Ross of New York's PIRA Energy.
"At the margin
the world economy is fragile enough that higher prices could have a very real
impact."


Comment:

A perfect storm is converging with several concerns piling one atop the other.

The price of gold is gaining on the weak performance of equities on Wall
Street, media exposure of corporate malfeasance, numerous corporate earnings
warnings, the lack of concessions from OPEC ministers, violence in the Middle
East, and the threat of military action against Iraq.

Other concerns are brewing
just below the surface such as all time record levels of corporate and consumer
debt, as well as record levels of personal and corporate bankruptcies, and
problems at several major banks.

Globally the equities markets are taking some
hits over the last few days.

Today?s decision by OPEC to leave production
quotas in place is a big disappointment to the markets.

Higher energy costs act as
a tax on business.

That means less cash for capital expenditures leading to a
further weakening in the manufacturing sector.

Reports on Thursday show a weakening in new U.S. housing projects and a
persistently high number of workers seeking unemployment aid.

U.S. housing
starts fell 2.2 percent in August, their third monthly decline in a row, the
Commerce Department reported on Thursday as the housing sector, this is more
than what analysts were expecting.

The question is:

could this be a sign that the
housing bubble is likely to burst soon?

Also the Labor Department said first-time
applications for jobless insurance stood at 424,000 in the week ended Sept. 14, a
level most economists say indicates a weak labor market.

That is 9,000 fewer
from the prior week.

However, any number above 400,000 is loosely described
as being recessionary.

Some prefer to look at the four week average of initial
claims, and here too the picture is not good as the average rose to its highest level
since May.

The precious metals sector appears to be one of very few sectors to
benefit today.

***Gold continues to gain on its ?safe haven? reputation while economic indicators suggest a weaker economy and the drums of war grow louder.***

CALVF - history often repeat itself*^*^*^*^*^

http://chart.bigcharts.com/bc3/intchart/frames/chart.asp?symb=calvf&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=131072&lf2=128&lf3=256&type=2&size=2&state=8&sid=2216&style=320&time=20&freq=3&comp=NO%5FSYMBOL%5FCHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=677&mocktick=1



GOLD LT TREND BULL WAVE*^*^*^*^*^

Gold Spot (FOREX:XAUUSDO)

TA LT higher highs and higher lows
4 Strong Bull waves to go*^*^*^*^

TA ST the last 5th small correction bearwave
soon complete.

Bull Wave Breakout to follow*^*^*^*^*^

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=dmax


Dollar Index Cash (NYBOT:DXY0)
TA LT lower highs and lower lows...
3 bear waves left...

TA ST small 5th bull wave correction
soon complete, followed by
continuation of the LT bear waves...

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=dmax


http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/081702/maund081702.html

CALVF Risning from oversold conditions - bullish

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund071202.html


Current Price of Gold
http://www.caledoniamining.com
Imo.

(Voluntary Disclosure: Position- Long; ST Rating- Strong Buy; LT Rating- Strong Buy)


Post  42261  by  pacemakernj       OT: Clo, imo, there is no way they can accurately
Post  42262  by  Tampathom       OT: Life is funny
Post  42263  by  tinljhtkh       OT: In this case, I'm afraid
Post  42264  by  Tampathom       OT: ROTFLMAO!
Post  42265  by  ferociousD       pacemakernj-it's been off my charts
Post  42266  by  clo       OT: Oh Tin!


Post  42267  by  IamCanadian       Reply
PMCW--COMS, you lost me here buddy, though I will agree with the baggage comment. I haven't read any SEC filings for about six months on these guys, but this place is a case study for some future classroom. Maybe diamonds can turn to coal then back to diamonds again, but I think it takes a few months! Over the past few years they have done just about everything at an extreme divergence from good judgement as possible, with a management team that defies description. The one thing I will give them credit for is the lab--the engineers were never the problem, just the folks giving them design strategies. They botched the US Robotics aquisition and lost the lawsuit to the tune of $250 million--straight from the cash account--ouch!! They blew another $100 million on Audrey the internet toaster or whatever it was; let's not forget Kerbango the internet radio, about another $100 million; and the one upside of the US Robotics deal was PALM, and we all know what happened there. That spinoff probably ranks as the most difficult and time consuming investment I ever had, and while I did OK, with some luck and timing, I just got the tax guys off my case in January.

It's an intriguing option plan they have as well. Remember my discussions a while back with you and Maniati--they appeared to be buying back shares into treasury at less than the cash/share value at the time. Then, oops, another in a long string of Option Plan adjustments--forget how they account for them. Palm turns into a disaster pursuing a hardware strategy and CY seems to be troubled these days--the common link of course is Eric the B. is the Chairman of all three--and I have to wonder about the logic, other than for option holders of the reverse Palm split.

I did note with interest though that the Quarter after I posted on the RB COMS Board that they seemed to have devloped a strategy to "shrink their way to success" a verbatim rebuttal was in their next quarter report. As we say in Canada, "24 hours in a day, 24 beers in a case--coincidence??, I think not"

We won't even go into their real estate/lease transactions or outsourcing agreements with idiotic minimals. In this day of Dennis K's ex coming up with $10 million to keep him away from a government issued cot; I think Eric the B. should have ten thousand red laser dots on his body--but nobody knows who COMS is?? They sure know about Palm though and CY isn't even a teenager anymore.

Could it go from three to five though--coin toss. But not on due dilligence and fundamentals. It's a trader at best IMO.

Regards eh,

IAC


Post  42268  by  lkorrow       OT Pace, what great things are coming:


Post  42269  by  lkorrow       Reply
Roof, It's continuing tongith. Also have NEM dehedging (others?), I think through February.




Post  42270  by  lkorrow       Reply
Pace, you're right, it's starting: Charles Schwab, 1880, 10% of workforce.

As Schwab Goes, So Goes The Street
http://www.forbes.com/2002/09/17/0917schwab.html

Morgan Stanley's Bigger Worry
http://www.forbes.com/2002/09/19/0919mwd.html

Layoff Tracker Update: Sept. 17, 2002
http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.html


Post  42271  by  tinljhtkh       OT: No Clo!


Post  42272  by  lkorrow       Reply
Clo, the recession started mid-2000 after the y2k spending bubble that carried over into 1Q and the dotcom buses and it's been re-adjusting ever since. jmho. Recovery was an illusion or did I just misspell delusion.




Post  42273  by  lkorrow       Reply
Jeff, yep, both free and usable for other stocks. This is a custom chart I set up, there are a lot of other options in their interactive charting (red button at the top).

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=kry&sid=0&o_symb=kry&freq=9&time=1


Post  42274  by  tinljhtkh       OT: IAC!


Post  42275  by  uponroof       Reply
Thanks Linda..

Kitco live gold chart is down.

NEM will be clearing NDY old hedges by February as you say. Barrick (ABX) will also be cleaning up forward sales to the tune of 5 million ozs before the end of the year.

The trend is up and the big banks know it. At some point their models will scream for them to abandon short gold. Might be doing it right now. Japan, JPMC, Iraq, the dollar and of course the dehedging movement by the majors.

btw-How does the DOW lose a whopping 230 points while crippled JPMC opens at 19.50 then closes at 19.87?

Don't know, but it keeps those 2 million or so shares worth of $20 JPM puts from going in the money. JPM can't close below $20 tomorrow and it probably won't. Talk about blatant propping up!

from 'The Street,com':

"...This isn't a bank but a hedge fund -- a hedge fund that makes LTCM and Enron look like T-bill money market funds," said Jim Puplava, president of Puplava Financial Services, a Poway, Calif.-based firm with about $200 million under management.

The majority of J.P. Morgan's derivative contracts are not exchange traded, Puplava noted, meaning "you don't know what the value is until you are forced to sell them in the marketplace."

Recalling past debacles, the fund manager and radio personality observed: "Most blowups occur when a financial entity has to unwind its positions and finds no buyers. The same thing that happened to Long Term Capital and Enron could happen to J.P. Morgan."


snip>

Puplava was particularly concerned about comments from S&P analyst Tanya Azarchs. In a conference call yesterday Azarchs said "we don't think the worst is over" for J.P. Morgan and that the firm needs to show "no other fundamental issues or surprises" in 2003 to avoid another ratings cut.

That's significant, because while an A-plus rating "may not hurt them all that much," another downgrade to single-A or below "is a breakpoint that has some significance," Azarchs said. "It could cause a downward spiral, [and] we can't not downgrade just because it might cause that downward spiral."..."

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/aarontaskfree/10043321.html


btw#2 Naz now 10 points from 5 year low. "I'm in it for the long haul" is about to wipe out what's left of entire life's savings of all those 'mom and poppers' hanging tough in tech.


Post  42276  by  lkorrow       OT: anyone hear whether the capital loss $3K is be


Post  42277  by  colettevk       Reply
The war, if it occurs, will only exacerbate the deficit and lead to further dollar weakness; and gold will rise, not fall after the war.



Post  42278  by  lkorrow       Reply
Roof, Good question on JPM! Oddly, over $20M net outflow shown on Bigcharts, while Thomsonfn shows buying. I'm not sure how to reconcile this.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=jpm&sid=0&o_symb=jpm&freq=9&time=1&x=74&y=19

http://iw.thomsonfn.com/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=jpm&symbol=jpm