Table On-Topic Summary - 26-Sep-2002
A compilation of this board's financial/economic posts From 42692 to 42763

Post  42692  by  lkorrow       OT: pmcw, great post, sounds like something you'd
Post  42693  by  clo       OT: Pace, if I may?


Post  42694  by  Arkural       Reply
Ot-Yankee Doodle


Father and I went down to camp,
Along with Captain Gooding;
And there we saw the men and boys,
As thick as hasty pudding.

Yankee doodle, keep it up,
Yankee doodle dandy;
Mind the musie and the step,
And with the girls be handy.

There was Captain Washington
Upon a slapping stallion,
A-giving orders to his men,
I guess there was a million.

And then the feathers on his hat,
They looked so' tarnal fin-a,
I wanted pockily to get
To give to my Jemima.

And then we saw a swamping gun,
Large as a log of maple;
Upon a deuced little cart,
A load for father's cattle.

And every time they shoot it off,
It takes a horn of powder;
It makes a noise like father's gun,
Only a nation louder.

I went as nigh to one myself,
As' Siah's underpinning;
And father went as nigh agin,
I thought the deuce was in him.

We saw a little barrel, too,
The heads were made of leather;
They knocked upon it with little clubs,
And called the folks together.

And there they'd fife away like fun,
And play on cornstalk fiddles,
And some had ribbons red as blood,
All bound around their middles.

The troopers, too, would gallop up
And fire right in our faces;
It scared me almost to death
To see them run such races.

Uncle Sam came there to change
Some pancakes and some onions,
For' lasses cake to carry home
To give his wife and young ones.

But I can't tell half I see
They kept up such a smother;
So I took my hat off, made a bow,
And scampered home to mother.

Cousin Simon grew so bold,
I thought he would have cocked it;
It scared me so I streaked it off,
And hung by father's pocket.

And there I saw a pumpkin shell,
As big as mother's basin;
And every time they touched it off,
They scampered like the nation.

Yankee doodle, keep it up,
Yankee doodle dandy;
Mind the music and the step,
And with the girls be handy

-

Yankee Doodle Dandy

http://www.yourdictionary.com/library/yankee.html


-

Yankee Doodle:A New Engalnd Dand in King George's Court
http://www.jolique.com/social_status/yankee_doodle.htm

-

Yankee Doodle

Why did yankee doodle stick a feather in his hat and call it macaroni? Back in Pre-Revolutionary America when the song "Yankee Doodle" was first popular, the singer was not referring to the pasta "macaroni" in the line that reads "stuck a feather in his hat and called it macaroni". "Macaroni" was a fancy ("dandy") style of Italian dress widely imitated in England at the time. So by just sticking a feather in his cap and calling himself a "Macaroni" (a "dandy"), Yankee Doodle was proudly proclaiming himself to be a country bumpkin, because that was how the English regarded most colonials at that time. But times have long since changed, and it is important to reflect on the fact that despite the turbulant early relationship between England and the American colonists, our two countries are strongly united.

http://www.niehs.nih.gov/kids/lyrics/yankee.htm

-

(various versions, etc)

Regards,

War Drum Mogul



p.s.

"Blood and guts and bones separate the meaning~less"


Post  42695  by  lkorrow       OT: Ark, Good post, that is quite a dictionary. B
Post  42696  by  Decomposed       OT: Table ON TOPIC SUMMARY Sep 25, 2002


Post  42697  by  Lanman       Reply
Wave Systems

We all dream of discovering a company that for only a small initial investment would provide huge returns. Is this one of them and is it worth the $1.60 a share to find out? You decide. The first link below is a response from Lark Allen, Executive VP, Business Development to an irate investor. The remaining links are excerpts taken from the TWST CEO interview.

http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=CLB00135&read=81454

THE WALL STREET TRANSCRIPT, STEVEN SPRAGUE - WAVE SYSTEMS CORPORATION (WAVX) CEO Interview - published 09/23/2002
excerpts:

"Play is about to begin"
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=CLB00135&read=81369

"We have a technology lead"
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=CLB00135&read=81373

"The only programmable solution"
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=CLB00135&read=81374

"Twst: What benchmarks might you passing over the next few years that investors would want to note?"
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=CLB00135&read=81345

momentum behind bringing hardware security...
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=CLB00135&read=81384
















Post  42698  by  pmcw       Reply
Ark - Zone:

I don't know this industry well so let me just offer observations that would cause me to look deeper.

They have been buying back significant amounts of their stock. As a matter of a fact, it looks like that's where they are "investing" every spare dollar - they don't have much cash. They are either wildly confident or crazy.

Their current accounts are mostly inventory investments. In their line, inventory holds value pretty well so this doesn't need to be discounted much if at all. The current liabilities are pretty substantial, but I think it is mostly inventory debt.

I would look very closely at the following:

Same store sales - if it ain't goin' up I would be goin' out

Inventory turns - I don't know what would be strong for their industry, but I'm sure it would be related to GP. I would look for industry norms at worst and also a trend towards higher or stable GP's and turns.

Construction of Debt - What might make rates go up? Is any of it convertible? General terms.

Dilution - I would look for any sort of dilution from convertibles to options. A large amount of stock is in the hands of insiders.

Cash flow - This company brings in the coin! Keep a close eye on this trend which in a retail growth business is more important than GAAP earnings.

Regards, pmcw


Post  42699  by  pacemakernj       OT: Clo, not for a minute. Although General Patton
Post  42700  by  tinljhtkh       OT: "L"
Post  42701  by  tinljhtkh       OT: Do you recall


Post  42702  by  jeffbas       Reply
On WAVX, that commentary by an exec is one of the most interesting things that I have ever seen. However, at recent sales and loss levels, the company is not even close to having enough money to survive, in my opinion. They will have to materially dilute the stock to get money, sell out to one of these major entrants into their space, or .... This situation will become dangerous before long. A stock like TIBX (on a pullback from it's recent rally) is a vastly superior situation in the software area.



Post  42703  by  maniati       Reply
Valuations, Volatility & Recovery

I meant to post this about 2 1/2 weeks ago, but I had a computer crash, and I just got around to recovering and reconstructing these posts. Ill post them all as one. I guess it isn't ancient history yet, but I sure wanted to be a little more out in front than this. Oh, well.

1. Recovery

My opinion in a nutshell: I don't see one. A bunch of economists see final demand as key to everything, yet I see softness in demand. I don't see housing continuing to prop up demand, and I think retailing isn't looking good. Forget about business capital investment; that won't happen until we see improved earnings, which requires improvement in demand and pricing firmness. And unemployment looks like it's heading in the wrong direction.

Amazingly, it seems to me that some analysts saw the inventory rebound and thought that meant the economy was back on track. I can't believe I'm still talking about this even now; I thought the truth was apparent over a year ago. The inventory replenishment earlier this year didn't fix anything, and that is because the inventory correction of a year ago was never the real problem to begin with. The problem was, and is, capital investment. That won't come back until profits improve, but that requires an improvement in demand, and, unfortunately, I see demand headed the other way - or, at best, sideways. The inventory replenishment earlier this year was a red herring.

I suppose the future of the economy warrants another post. But, for now, I'll just say I don't see anything particularly good any time soon, and let's move on.

2. Volatility - Micro

It seems to me that one might expect more volatility during a time when inflation is low and uncertainty about future growth is high. Obviously, there are lots of factors that contribute to volatility; I am not suggesting that this is the only one, or even the most significant. But, I'm mentioning it because I think it is a factor, and one which I have not heard anyone else mention.

Let's begin with the assumption that a stock's price is the present value of its future cash flow. (Note that, for purposes of this discussion, it's not important whether we call it "cash flow" or "free cash flow" or "owner's earnings." That's not what this post is about.) To compute present value, one must discount by an appropriate discount rate. In theory, one should use the rate used for other investments of comparable risk. In practice, that does not happen; many people use some sort of risk-free rate. That's completely inappropriate, but that, too, is a topic for another post. For our purposes, let's assume that the discount rate that people tend to use is a rate that includes a risk-free component, that also takes inflation into account, and, to be conservative, let's assume that there is some additional risk premium that is also applied, but let's assume that premium is rather small.

Let's also assume that future cash flows are not being inflated - i.e., no price inflation for that particular company. This would tend to be true for an industry that faces strong price competition, or that is high growth, or that is realizing increasing economies of scale. That happens to describe a lot of companies that people on this board invest in.

What is the net effect of these assumptions? The effect is to weight future cash flows more heavily than they would be if the discount rate was higher.

Most investors probably realize that, all other things being equal, a higher discount rate implies a lower net present value. But, it is also true that, all other things being equal, a higher discount rate gives less weight to future cash flows than a lower discount rate. And a lower discount rate gives higher weight to future cash flows.

Consequently, a change in expectations about future cash flows can have more impact on current stock prices during times when the discount rate is low. That is because those future cash flows have been discounted less, and, therefore, still make up a larger component of the total, when the discount rate is low.

For those of you who follow bonds, this is not so different from the idea of "duration." A lower discount rate extends the "duration" of an equity by permitting cash flows further into the future to still have an impact on the company's net present value (price).

The implication is that events occurring in the future tend to get more weight when discount rates are low than they get when rates are high.

So, if you have a situation where a company is not expecting prices to rise with inflation, and discount rates are low, and there is uncertainty about the future of the earnings stream, then you might expect more volatility in the price of that stock as expectations about future earnings change - as compared to when discount rates are low.

I think that could be true for a lot of stocks right now.

In contrast, when discount rates are higher, changes in future earnings assumptions have less impact because those future earnings are being discounted more heavily and, therefore, have less significance.

3. Valuations

I completed thinning my positions on March 11, and posted to that effect a week later. When the market bottomed in July, I did some buying, but also said I would sell the rally, and I did. And I did a little trading along the way.

At this point, I find myself wondering where valuations will be a year from now. I have a hard time convincing myself that the market indices will be higher.[Again, I wrote this on Sept. 8.] The indices a year from now strike me more as a gamble than an investment. That being the case, I would think they would drop, so as to create an expected rate of return that justifies taking on the implied risk.

I could see that becoming self-fulfilling, to the extent that everyone else also decides that the expected return does not compensate for the risk. The Dow still has not taken out its 5-year low, and I think it will.

For buy&holders, the road looks bumpy to me. I might invest in Tums. :-)

4. Volatility - Macro

As I have said before, I fall in the camp of people who believe that the markets will somehow return to their historical average returns. We typically hear of two scenarios: 1) a major correction, or 2) sideways movement. Some have also suggested the possibility of a combination: a not-as-major correction and some sideways movement.

Obviously, the extremity of the bubble (1999-2000) was taken out by correction. But, beyond that, there has been lots of debate.

Here's another possibility: The Great Sinusoidal Correction.

I don't claim to have a crystal ball - this is just an idea to toss around. My reasoning is based on the premise that the market has become a lot more "self-aware" than it used to be. It's as though the market would have liked to have tanked but good by now, in a very precipitous drop, but it knows that it would have rebounded from that drop, because of all the undying optimism. As a result, it never dropped to the full depths of where the fear wanted to take it. In its less conscious and self-aware past, perhaps it would have.

So, for now, the market vacillates between fear and optimism. Perhaps volatility is the story. It's not the level, it's the volatility. Maybe next year, the Dow will see 10,000, and maybe it will see 6,000, but, more importantly, maybe it will see both. Maybe, in answer to the question in the previous section about where the market will be next year, it just depends on which month you pick. It's not the level; it's the volatility.

Then again, keep in mind section 3. I think that low discount rates exacerbate the volatility. But, if we get a good dose of inflation, or even begin to expect it, then discount rates will go up, and the importance of future earnings (for companies who cannot price the inflation into their products) will be discounted more heavily. As a result, the "duration" of equities will lessen, and the market will become less "self-aware" of its future. Then, the sinusoid would turn into a step function - a step down that is.

But, as long as rates stay low, I see lots of oscillation. Perhaps damped oscillation, as the markets slowly converge either on the historical average return, or on some other "truth."

fwiw



Post  42704  by  pmcw       OT: pace, Today our fighting forces are all volunt


Post  42705  by  pmcw       Reply
jeff, I've clearly posted my opinions in the past, particularly when WAVX was running like a rabid dog, that I feel WAVX is (was) a joke. You are exactly right about the dilution. On top of this, look at the pay history for executives and super high SG&A expenses. If I had the interest I could probably find some sweet consulting contracts given to friends of the family. As I told a poster spaming WAVX on the HLIT board, I would't touch it with a ten foot Sprague.

Regards, pmcw




Post  42706  by  jeffbas       Reply
pmcw, I did not recall your commenting on WAVX in the past, and felt a current comment was merited considering all the responses that post got.




Post  42707  by  pmcw       Reply
jeff, You would have to dig back into Table 2000 to find some of the old comments. I was waiting today to see who might chime in here - you were on my short list.

I do like pointing out these folks who like to spread posts around RB about companies with dubious prospects. Here's a link to my comments on HLIT when we had a similar visitor.

http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=HLIT&read=6982

Regards, pmcw




Post  42708  by  jeffbas       Reply
maniati, I don't totally agree with your comments on discount rates. On the one hand I think they are appropriately reduced (for stable results of stable companies) because the general level of returns is at historic lows - you do not invest in a vacuum. On the other hand, I see everywhere that the market is willing to pay almost nothing for development stage situations, which really means enormous discount rates for potential future earnings - or, more accurately, enormous increases in the discount for the risk they might not be achieved.

However, we share the same view on discount rates for stocks. If bond rates go from 6% to 4%, maybe cash flow discount rates for good quality stocks ought to go from 10% to 8% - or maybe go from 10% to 12% to adjust for the implication of reduced bond rates on achieving those future results :-)


Post  42709  by  lkorrow       OT: Tin, how nice, thank you. Wow, you're really g


Post  42710  by  Warstud       Reply
Intersil could be pressured by Intel/Linksys talks - Needham (ISIL) 13.59: Needham says they have come to learn that INTC is currently in discussions with Linksys over a possible WLAN marketing agreement; ISIL is currently the primary supplier of 802.11b chipsets to Linksys, and should INTC aggressively market its WLAN chipsets to 3rd party equipment vendors, ISIL's WLAN biz and margins could face increased pressure in the longer term.




Post  42711  by  Warstud       Reply
Sanmina-SCI Sees Flat Market, More Cuts Possible
9/25/02 1:30 PM
Source: Reuters

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Battered contract electronics maker Sanmina-SCI Corp. said it sees an essentially flat market for the next six to nine months and may cut costs further, its chief executive said on Wednesday.

Chief Executive and Chairman Jure Sola, speaking at a Banc of America Securities conference, said Sanmina-SCI was making good progress in talks with banks on its revolving debt.
The company also has about $1 billion in cash to help ride out the hard times, he said.

Sola told Reuters that Sanmina-SCI did not plan to revise its outlook for the current quarter despite a difficult and tricky market. "We don't plan to," he said.

Sanmina-SCI in July posted a fiscal third-quarter loss, but forecast fourth-quarter revenues to be anywhere from flat to up 3 percent over the prior quarter, with cash earnings per share, excluding charges, of between 2 cents and 3 cents.

Sola told investors that Sanmina-SCI was focused on its financial results and that he aimed to build a leaner company.

"I think we can do a lot more with a lot less," Sola said, adding that the company, which has Cisco Systems Inc. and International Business Machines Corp. as customers, may close more plants than initially planned.

Sanmina-SCI may have more capacity than needed given depressed technology and telecommunications markets, he said.

Also on Wednesday, Merrill Lynch analyst Jerry Labowitz issued a research note in which he said that most of the potential risks from the integration of the two companies that formed Sanmina-SCI were behind the company.

Rating agency Standard & Poor's earlier this month downgraded Sanmina-SCI's credit rating, citing concerns about the company's operating performance.

S&P cut the company's corporate credit and senior secured bank loan ratings to a lower junk grade of "BB" from "BB-plus," and its subordinate note ratings to "B-plus" from "BB-minus."

A number of analysts had expected credit rating downgrades because of Sanmina-SCI's difficulties in meeting its performance goals since Sanmina Corp. and SCI Systems Inc. merged in December of last year.

Sanmina-SCI in August said it would not proceed with the purchase of three manufacturing facilities from telecom giant Siemens AG due to the difficult market.




Post  42712  by  tinljhtkh       OT: pacemakernj!
Post  42713  by  danking_70       OT: Liberal Egyptian Intellectual on the Arab Regi


Post  42714  by  maniati       Reply
jeff: As I said, I intended to save the discussion as to how people discount earnings for another day. But, to clarify, for my purposes today, I am not assuming or suggesting that discount rates are somehow wrong or "inappropriate." Not at all. Let's assume that they are what they "should" be.

Nevertheless, low rates - for whatever reason - imply greater weight to future earnings, all other things being equal.

As for you last sentence, don't laugh! We've seen enough of companies trying to replace earnings from their primary lines of business with earnings from investments. I say, give the stockholders back their money and let them make their own decisions. But, I don't have the time today to get into a discussion about the double tax on dividends, so I guess I should just keep my mouth shut. :-)





Post  42715  by  beusa_1       Reply
CALVF CEO Power Point Presentation To Richmond Club

Caledonia Mining Corporation's Presentation To

The Richmond Club -

Stefan Hayden
President and CEO

Listen To The Power Point Presentation at

http://www.caledoniamining.com

20 minutes 3 seconds



Note.
Try to buy Red or Green Diamonds*^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
The Rarest?

Did I hear it right?

New Platinum deposit!?!!!

Caledonia Mining Corporation President And CEO Addresses
The Richmond Club Broker Luncheon Event


Caledonia Mining Corporation
("Caledonia") of Toronto (OTC BB: CALVF)(TSX:CAL.TO) announced that
Stefan Hayden, Chairman, President and CEO
would make a presentation to

The Richmond Club's membership of brokers, fund managers, analysts and members of the media at

The National Club,
on Bay Street, in Toronto.

The presentation will be videotaped and synchronized with a PowerPoint presentation, which will then be digitized for transmission to Caledonia's shareholders and 4,250 members
of The Richmond Club.

A link to the presentation
is available on Caledonia's website
and on
the Caledonia Mining Corporation
profile page on The Richmond Club website.

Caledonia has recently been selected
by The Richmond Club to be showcased to an audience of

625,000 investors through
its broker/ analyst luncheon and exposure to institutional investors and national media.

About Caledonia Mining Corporation:

Caledonia's corporate philosophy is to
identify mineral properties and projects early in their development cycle, and
then add value by developing, and/or operating and/or disposing of the asset, in
whole or in part, at the most opportune time thereby adding shareholder value.

Caledonia's predominant focus is on its Canadian,
Zambian and South African properties,
a number of which are operated in terms of joint ventures with major mining companies.

Caledonia is virtually debt free and has a portfolio of
carefully selected and exciting precious metals,
diamond and base metal properties.

About The Richmond Club: The Richmond Club (www.richmondclub.com)
is a media portal to 2.2 million investors through TV,
Radio, Magazine, Newsletter and broker luncheon events.

It has a membership of over 4,250 brokers, fund
managers, analysts and members of the media in Canada,
USA and UK.

The Richmond Club selects and showcases companies with good management and an excellent prospect of outperforming the market in the next 12-18 months.

Further information regarding Caledonia's exploration activities and operations along with its latest financials may be found on
the Corporation's website

http://www.caledoniamining.com..

CONTACT:
Caledonia Mining Corporation, South Africa

S. E. Hayden, 011-27-11/ 447-2499

011-27-11/ 447-2554 (FAX)

or

Caledonia Mining Corporation, Canada

James Johnstone, 905/607-7543

905/607-9806 (FAX)

or

Caledonia Mining Corporation, Canada

Chris Harvey, 905/607-7543

905/607-9806 (FAX)

or

The Richmond Club/ The Richmond Club Report

Sufia Lodhi, 416/644-0644

Email: sufia.Lodhi@richmondclub.com

http://www.richmondclub.com


INDUSTRY KEYWORD: MINING/METALS

@@

CALVF Risning from oversold conditions - bullish

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/081702/maund081702.html#caledoniamining

Current Price of Gold
http://www.caledoniamining.com


TIA. Pass It Along>>>>>>>>>>>
Imo.

(Voluntary Disclosure: Position- Long; ST Rating- Strong Buy; LT Rating- Strong Buy)





Post  42716  by  Warstud       Reply
Time To Short eom.



Post  42717  by  lkorrow       Reply
CNBC just mentioned an analysis of the CRB commodity index, which shows inflationary gains in coffee, oil, gold, grain, cattle, hogs, etc., over the past year.



Post  42718  by  lkorrow       Reply
Speaking of ABX. Still, they have close to a billion in the bank. . . .

Barrick falls after cutting profit targets
By Myra P. Saefong, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 10:59 AM ET Sept. 26, 2002

TORONTO (CBS.MW) - Shares of Barrick Gold sank 11 percent Thursday after the gold miner lowered its earnings target for the third quarter and full year, citing production problems and higher costs.

Barrick's stock dropped $1.91 to $15.86 in recent dealings on volume of more than 4 million shares.

The Toronto-based company (ABX) estimated it would make 33 cents to 35 cents a share this year, down from prior projections of 42 cents to 47 cents. Both estimates assume a spot gold price of $315 an ounce.

Prior to Barrick's announcement, analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call, on average, expected a per-share profit of 43 cents for the year.

Barrick said it faced higher production costs amid declining rates of recovery and poorer quality of its gold.

"While our third quarter has been disappointing, we expected our fourth quarter results to improve as we mine better rages at several operations," said John Carrington, vice chair and chief operating officer.

The company also said third-quarter earnings per share would fall below its previous target, with per-share earnings now likely to be in the 5 cents to 6 cents range before rising to the 10 cents to 11 cents level in the fourth quarter.

Thomson First Call pegged estimates for third-quarter profit per share at 12 cents and fourth-quarter earnings at 13 cents a share before the announcement.

Production for the year is still on target at 5.7 million ounces, but cash costs are forecasted to average $178 per ounce, vs. prior projections of $172 per ounce.

Barrick has been trying to fix processing issues at several of its mines this year, but it's taking "a little longer than we would have liked to resolve the issues," Carrington said, adding that the problems are short-term.

The latest news comes a little over a week after the firm said it aims to double its profit by 2006 with a new growth plan that centers on a $2 billion mine development program.





Post  42719  by  jeffbas       Reply
"The latest news comes a little over a week after the firm said it aims to double its profit by 2006 with a new growth plan that centers on a $2 billion mine development program."

On ABX, what this amounts to is saying that in 4 years this mining company might get its P/E down to 20, if the stock price stays the same. In my opinion, there is a gigantic premium in here for future increases in the price of gold. If this were a copper or aluminum company, the price would be closer to $5. (Although I suppose what counts is whether gold stocks always carry this premium, I won't pay triple a reasonable price for anything because of "magical appeal".)




Post  42720  by  pmcw       Reply
Some relatively safe plays.

Many stocks are currently trading at valuations below what they've ever seen. Others have not reached record lows, but are certainly close. Due to the high volatility in the semi market, option prices are up. As a result, there are some unique opportunities to play the covered call game and risk no more than holding a stock at well below what it is trading for today.

Normally, I like to play calls on a surge - buy the stock and then look to sell a call one step out of the money for a nice premium. However, right now there are plays that provide somewhat less return, but have much less risk.

Look for stocks that are trading between two strike prices. Typically the best deals I've seen is when the stocks are trading slightly under the mid point of this range. Example: A range of $5 to $7.50 would between strike prices would indicate a mid point of $6.25. Buy the stock and sell December calls for the strike price just below the purchase price. Example: Buy at the slightly below the mi-point of $6.25 (maybe $6) and then sell Dec5's.

The deals to look for are those where the implied profit (stock price - option premium < 90% of strike price).

Examples follow:

CSCO (have to sell Jan10's - there are no Dec calls)
ISIL (have to sell Jan12.5's - there are no Dec calls)
IDNX (Dec5's)
XLNX (Dec15's)

If you want to add a little spice (trade some risk for potential reward), buy during what you feel is a dip and try to sell the call on a surge. However, sometimes calls don't react quickly to market price changes so be careful. The play is just intended to net 10% to 20% inside of three months with the only risk being stuck with a good company at a cheap basis. In the XLNX example shown you would have a cost basis of $12.50 to $13.00. If you stretched out the time to March calls, the cost basis would be well below $12.

Regards, pmcw




Post  42721  by  clo       Reply
It's still the economy! clo Power Poll: Bush's top priority

Which issue do you think most deserves President Bush's attention? Take part in Thursday's Power Poll.

L I V E V O T E
RESULTS

Total Votes: 2757
What should President Bush's top priority be?
Iraq28%
Economy 66%
Other5%

With a struggling economy, lackluster stock market, terrorism and a possible war with Iraq, President George W. Bush undoubtedly has his work cut out for him. He spent Thursday morning trying to gain Congressional approval of a military action against Iraq.
After holding a strategy session with Democratic and Republican lawmakers, he spoke in the Rose Garden, outlining his argument for swift action. A short time later, Bush discussed corporate fraud at a two-day Justice Department conference.

The president has been busy clamping down on corporate fraud; after a slew of scandals in the spring and summer at Adelphia Communications, ImClone (IMCL, news, msgs), WorldCom and Enron, Bush signed legislation cracking down on corporate fraud and making financial reporting more transparent.

So what do you think should be President Bush's top priority Iraq, the economy, homeland security/terrorism, or another issue? Let Power Lunch know. Register your vote on the left of this page, and e-mail us your rationale. We'll discuss your thoughts on today's show.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/CNBCTV/Promos/P30761.asp?ShowResults=1#Vote




Post  42722  by  pmcw       Reply
clo, Specifically, what are the Democrat leaders suggesting we should do to revive the economy? Regards, pmcw



Post  42723  by  lkorrow       Reply
Jeff, interesting analysis, good catch. Yes, the gleam of gold. Speaking of P/E, I was amazed there were so many issues with no P/E at all when I first started looking at these issues. It has improved with the increase in POG. NEM is really up there.

FCX 249
NEM 85
GLG 77
HGMCY 40
ABX 35
MDG 33
RGLD 32
BVN 23
AU 20
GG 20
GFI 20
AAUK 13
GDI 12
ASL 9

The rest in my list n/a.




Post  42724  by  maniati       OT: Dan: That was an interesting essay. I noticed


Post  42725  by  uponroof       Reply
pace, Linda, Decomposed...KRY

Nice recap of Gold Conference by Calandra...
in which he points out Juniors as "offering the most upside potential". KRY gets a good mention. Pace, thanks again for the insight yesterday. You have cemented my opinion of this outfit. I do believe we will be trading higher in short order especially given the enclosed quotes:

"..."Everyone has a comment on Crystallex," says John C. Doody of Gold Stock Analyst. "Have they got the deposit? By the (depressed) stock price, it appears they haven't," says Doody, who considers Crystallex one of his top choices. Crystallex is seeking about $15 million of financing to secure the results of test drills in the Las Cristinas area of Venezuela, Doody said..."

pace- here's an informed, reknown analyst who is NOT SURE if KRY has a deal with VZ for LC. Imagine what the uninformed must be thinking. We are ahead of the pack on this stock IMHO.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BD3204B10%2DC870%2D4AAA%2D95C5%2DF61CF4728F87%7D&siteid=mktw


Post  42726  by  danking_70       OT: Maniati,


Post  42727  by  uponroof       Reply
Warstud...

I appreciate your brief but telling posts. I will not forget your call during the last POG run to 330. I believe you nailed that reverse on the button if I'm not mistaken. Is there anything particular you see which dictates this latest call on equities?

"Time To Short eom"

Also, if I may ask, what do you see gold doing short and long term?

TIA





Post  42728  by  uponroof       Reply
Linda the CRB chart is what
the POG chart will soon look like, IMHO.



Post  42729  by  danking_70       OT: No wonder the Left is in Disarray. Babs is ca


Post  42730  by  lkorrow       Reply
Get a load of this one, big focus on CNBC just now -- should investors be continuing with a trading strategy rather than an investment strategy. Hello? Earth to CNBC. Well, when they start recommending a trading strategy, it must be time to invest! This comment is tongue in cheek, of course, I agree with maniati's earlier recap of where we're at.

They also had a spot on what options you can take to avoid mortgage forclosures. Not a good sign. I hear that payment defaults are running around 10-12% (I think that's around double the norm?) and credit card default is up. This is not good, now people will be losing the equity in their homes.


Post  42731  by  clo       OT:Danking, finally!


Post  42732  by  lkorrow       Reply
Roof, Pace, Decomposed, Yes, KRY helped my balance sheet today while NEM and AU took a dive. That's a relief. Well I'm going to put this one in the draw. Can't imagine them going to press if they didn't have a deal and Pace's impression of the management counts. Good luck, all!

Like the brochure NEM sent out. "Our vision has a simple bottom line: Newmont is dedicated to creating value with every ounce."



Post  42733  by  danking_70       OT: Clo


Post  42734  by  lkorrow       Reply
roof, yep, I know that! :-) I'm glad you asked warstud the question. I'm curious what downward pressures might be left, if any, and where the demand will be coming from.

Post  42735  by  clo       OT: Danking, I totally agree with you on this:
Post  42736  by  pmcw       OT: dan, I think all those with a clue had a simil
Post  42737  by  clo       OT:pmcw, sorry I am late answering your earlier qu
Post  42738  by  lkorrow       OT: More bad news on the capex front. While not un


Post  42739  by  clo       Reply
lkorrow, how about MO?

Now when you are able to sell a pack of cigs for 5.00+ and have trouble making your % what does that tell you about the consumer? clo

Philip Morris cuts 2002 underlying EPS growth to 3-5 pct; sees Q3 EPS 1.26
usd

NEW YORK, Sep 26, 2002 (AFX-UK via COMTEX) -- Philip Morris Cos Inc said it is
lowering its full-year 2002 earnings guidance to a growth range of 3-5 pct in
underlying diluted earnings per share due to lower than anticipated volume and
additional promotional spending at Philip Morris USA, its domestic tobacco
operating subsidiary.

The group also said underlying diluted earnings per share in the third quarter
are expected to be up 8.6 pct at 1.26 usd, compared to a First Call/Thomson
Financial consensus of 1.25 usd.

It added that it sees 2003 underlying EPS growth of 8-10 pct.

bruce.mcmahon@afxnews.com

bam/gc NNN






Post  42740  by  lkorrow       Reply
Mortgage rates fall below 6% to 5.99%! -- Freddie Mac



Post  42741  by  pacemakernj       Reply
Roof, RE: KRY. I met that guy Doody as well when I was talking to Rich Saks. I cannot believe he would say they DID NOT come up with the $15 million yet when it was due on Tuesday. We were standing right there and talking about it. That is strange. Furthermore Rich Marshall said that the money is there and will be paid. Want more proof, Luca Riccio was flying down to VZ that afternoon 9/24 to review all the geological data. Let me tell you these guys are just not with the program! On Monday 9/30 MO will be in Denver at the Institutional Investors meeting, I was told that he will hand out the agreement to all who want to see it. From what I gathered it's only about 10 pages long. IMO, people are vastly underestimating MO. It was unfortunate that I did not meet him but from what I gathered from Rich Marshall he is be very deliberate making sure all the details are covered. Details that will include and cover a regime change or coup. I realize that the only thing certain in life is death and taxes, but unless I was being sandbaged, stick a fork in this baby cause it's done. There is always the chance that something can go wrong but right now it's all systems go. Pace.



Post  42742  by  pacemakernj       Reply
LK, see my previous post. Pace.

Post  42743  by  maniati       OT: lk: I guess you're one of the few people who m
Post  42744  by  maniati       OT: clo:


Post  42745  by  lkorrow       Reply
Hi Clo, I'm sorry MO's still growing! That's not really fair, they're in other businesses besides tobacco. Thank goodness they're starting to tax cigs in a big way. I wonder if the high price in NY, etc., is helping or it's economic as you suggest. Probably both. Growing tobacco's a real crime, it consumes good land and especially water for non-productive use. At least we're going in the right direction. Go Bloomberg!

I think you're right, the consumer's fading. It looks like we can't completely avoid the business cycle. Contraction is more painful after the bubble, obviously. GWB better get vocal on the economy quick, how many times have I said this. What's the plan, let's have some detail. That 66% poll number is telling, GWB will be in trouble on re-election if employment doesn't improve. People think he's all wet on Iraq and not even paying attention to the economy. He has to handle both, imho. The West Wing season opener didn't help, imho. At the same time, people have become overconfident on terrorism because there hasn't been another strike. So today we see plastic explosives on a plane and news on deadly botulism out of Iraq.


Post  42746  by  lkorrow       OT: Got it Pace. Not sure what you meant on the $1
Post  42747  by  pacemakernj       OT: Tin, as always your thoughts are well defined
Post  42748  by  pacemakernj       OT: Tin, you know I've watched that movie at least
Post  42749  by  pacemakernj       OT: PMCW, that was terrific. One other thing, I wa


Post  42750  by  pacemakernj       Reply
Linda, they just getting to that now. Geez. Where have they been? Pace.



Post  42751  by  lkorrow       Reply
maniati, hear you on CNBC, we've all had that discussion before. I'm not that gullible on their stuff, I listen for the facts. It IS a little trying. I don't know why I leave the tv on, but it used to be every time I shut it off something would happen on the news. Now I leave it off more. You're right, pdowd's got the right idea! Speaking of whom, I hope he came out of the storm ok.

Hear you on cable, who needs an $80/mo bill (and that's without HBO, etc., movie channels). I was looking at what expenses to cut and decided to keep both the cable and the cable Internet access. I found my mother's 56Kb modem, which only gets 24Kb throughput would drive me completely crazy so I'm keeping the cable access. And, while I could do without CNBC and CNNfn, I watch a lot nature and ancient history programs. They have some good movies too. Since the network shows are pretty bad, imho, I decided to keep it. But I cringe at the bill. The way I look at it, catv should be free if they show commercials. SOunds like the SPorts bar is more fun, though, you're doing the right thing! :-)




Post  42752  by  pacemakernj       Reply
Linda, the $15 million is for the survey and geological data. It has been paid. Doody's comment was that it had not been. Pace




Post  42753  by  lkorrow       Reply
Pace, right, like trading vs. investing. Amazing. No wonder people have lost their shirts.

Post  42754  by  lkorrow       OT: Pace, thanks, don't know who's who . . .


Post  42755  by  Arkural       Reply
OT-lk, I'll clarify; you're reading my signoff too literal.

As for seeing the light, who me? Nah....I'm dumber than a 500 ton sack of lead marbles hitting the base of a sizeable iron anvil, south of the south pole.

Regards,

Bazooka Joe


Post  42756  by  maldinero       OT: Anti-Terrorism Technology
Post  42757  by  pmcw       OT: pace, I can remember Germany being our enemy,
Post  42758  by  lkorrow       OT: Ok Ark and I resemble that remark too! :-)


Post  42759  by  Arkural       Reply
pmcw-Azo- Ok, so it coulda been a good trade, , , yet another coulda?, yup. Thanks for your FA blips.
Woulda missed it had I not opened Nav's email.
Sideways glance, is all it means to me.

(Voluntary Disclosure: Position- No Position)


Post  42760  by  pmcw       OT: clo, I appreciate you taking the time to provi


Post  42761  by  nvrgivup       Reply
Pace: Just a thought here... I wonder if Thom Calandra talked to Dooley last week instead of this week. I'm assuming Calandra was not at the gold conference this week, or at least not at the KRY presentation. His information may have simply become obsolete by the time he wrote the piece for CBS Marketwatch.

nvr




Post  42762  by  maldinero       Reply
Friday, September 27, 2002 at 09:30 JST

BAGHDAD U.S. and British warplanes attacked a civilian airport in the southern Iraqi city Basra early Thursday, a spokesman for the Ministry of Transport and Communications said on Iraq TV.

The spokesman said the attack on the airport in Basra, about 550 kilometers south of Baghdad, was launched at 12:45 a.m., and the attacking planes "destroyed the civilian radar system of the airport and damaged the main public services building." (Kyodo News)

http://www.japantoday.com/e/?content=news&cat=8&id=231965



Post  42763  by  tinljhtkh       OT: Paraphrased,