Table On-Topic Summary - 27-Sep-2002
A compilation of this board's financial/economic posts From 42764 to 42822

Post  42764  by  Tampathom       OT: Also from memory:
Post  42765  by  Tampathom       OT: Correction

Post  42766  by  Warstud       Reply

If you don't visit the CY board then you would have missed this:

I can't tell you what it's going to do short or long term, just have to monitor as we go. I'm guessing though that it will not drop to july levels any time soon. What's your position? Long-short? What stocks?


Post  42767  by  clo       OT:RESEARCH ALERT-Lehman cuts GE rating, estimates

Post  42768  by  clo       Reply
How effective can Homeland Security be when the FBI makes errors such as this? Incredible...! clo

In a Mistake, Prosecutors Gave Secrets to Terror Suspect

WASHINGTON, Sept. 26 — Federal prosecutors mistakenly turned over 48 classified F.B.I. reports to Zacarias Moussaoui in what a federal judge described as a grave security breach, the government acknowledged in court documents released today.

The reports, which were summaries of interviews related to Mr. Moussaoui's case and the bureau's larger investigation of the terror network of Al Qaeda, were retrieved in searches of his jail cell this summer on the order of the judge, Leonie M. Brinkema.

Judge Brinkema ordered the searches, which took place over several days, after determining that "significant national security interests of the United States could be compromised if the defendant were to retain copies of this classified information."

In their court papers, federal prosecutors did not describe the F.B.I. summaries in any more detail, but they acknowledged that it was "dangerous" for them to be in the possession of Mr. Moussaoui, the only person charged in an American court in the Sept. 11 terror attacks.

The mishandling of the documents was revealed today by Judge Brinkema at the request of court appointed lawyers acting on Mr. Moussaoui's behalf and over the protests of the prosecutors, who have not revealed how the mistakes were made. Justice Department officials said tonight that the errors involving the documents were now the subject of an internal investigation by the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

The officials said that the summaries, which are known as "302's," named for the form used by F.B.I. agents to record the results of an interview, were not marked as classified, even though they contained classified information. Because he has no security clearance, Mr. Moussaoui is not supposed to be given access to classified documents.

Although Mr. Moussaoui, 34, a French national, has admitted that he is a member of Al Qaeda and is loyal to Osama bin Laden, he has insisted that he had nothing to do with the Sept. 11 attacks.

The summaries were provided to Mr. Moussaoui in the pretrial discovery process, in which prosecutors are required to provide defendants with evidence that they may use against them at trial.

Justice Department officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that federal prosecutors in Alexandria were convinced that Mr. Moussaoui had not read the documents at issue, since they were among huge stacks of paper and computer disks that had been provided to him after he announced in April that he wanted to act as his own lawyer and fire his court-appointed defense team.

"He's been given literally millions of documents and pieces of evidence, and it's very hard to believe he read or focused on this relative handful of them," said a department official. "But that doesn't mean we're trying to excuse this. It's a grand mess-up."

Officials said that as a result of the errors, Attorney General John Ashcroft had ordered the F.B.I. to review the sequence of events that led to the error, to make sure they were not repeated. Spokesmen for the United States attorney's office in Alexandria, which is near the Pentagon, did not return phone calls tonight for comment.

The court filings were unsealed today at the request of the court-appointed defense team, which continues to work for Mr. Moussaoui despite his attempts to dismiss the lawyers.

The defense team had said that the government had opposed the release of the information to spare it embarrassment over its mistakes, rather than to protect national security. The prosecutors described the defense accusation as "cynical and misleading."

The court papers said the Justice Department approached Judge Brinkema on Aug. 22 to tell her about the problem, which at that time focused on only two documents. In a letter that day, the United States attorney's office said that it wanted her help "in securing the return of two documents that contain classified information that were inadvertently produced to Mr. Moussaoui in discovery."

The documents, it said, had been turned over to Mr. Moussaoui in deliveries in June and July to the Alexandria jail. "The documents should be classified because they contain national security information," the prosecutors said. Judge Brinkema agreed to order Mr. Moussaoui to turn over the documents without reading them.

Within a week, the prosecutors disclosed to Judge Brinkema that five other classified documents had been inadvertently turned over to Mr. Moussaoui, and that they also needed to be retrieved.

In a letter on Aug. 29, the United States attorney in Alexandria, Paul J. McNulty, said that a two-day search of Mr. Moussaoui's cell had turned up five of the seven documents, but that one of the pair of missing documents "is the most critical (for reasons I can explain in a more secure forum)."

On Sept. 5, Mr. McNulty wrote again, this time attaching a list of an additional 43 classified documents that needed to be retrieved from Mr. Moussaoui.

In a response the next day, Judge Brinkema said that based on a "review of two of the documents at issue, we find that significant national security interests of the United States could be compromised if the defendant were to retain copies of this classified information." She ordered that agents of the United States Marshals Service seize any box of evidence that contained F.B.I. interview summaries.

Mr. Moussaoui, she said, had been "cooperative" during the early searches "and the deputies were able to cover all of the CD ROM's" on which some the documents were preserved.

Post  42769  by  pacemakernj       Reply
PMCW, well said. Pace.

Post  42770  by  pacemakernj       Reply
NVR, That is possible. Pace.

Post  42771  by  pacemakernj       Reply
Roof, RE: Gold: Did you notice yesterday that the Swiss National Bank will sell 283 more metric tons of bullion within the next 12 months as part of a program to halve its 2600 ton gold reserve. In addition, the POG fell due to a lack of follow through from the technical failure earlier in the week. From this AM's IBD. Pace.

Post  42772  by  Decomposed       OT: Table ON TOPIC SUMMARY Sep 26, 2002
Post  42773  by  danking_70       OT: Clo re HC
Post  42774  by  jeffbas       OT: clo, are you really surprised?

Post  42775  by  wondery2       Reply
Hi everyone !!!!!!!

EZ :)

Post  42776  by  danking_70       OT: Clo, 100-200 Billion is CHUMP CHANGE
Post  42777  by  tinljhtkh       OT: Your memory is better than mine,
Post  42778  by  StockmanI7       OT: Letter from Saddam to President, 2009
Post  42779  by  tinljhtkh       OT: Ahem!

Post  42780  by  JAZZMAN       Reply
clo: No the wealthy ones won't be doing the fighting-they will be thinking of ways to keep their precious money! Your right freedom definitely has a price tag. We should be reminded of this every day when we look at our flag which reminds us of our duties as an American citizen. I fought in Vietnam and it irritated me to watch rich boys wiggle off the hook with education or buy their way out, or if not smart enough, head for Canada. Their called draft dodgers-I call them cowards! Remember that every time you post your thoughts on a message board, or just enjoy life that many people died to allow you to have that freedom of expression. I'm all for education and smart people to run the country-but lets face it we need each other and the necessary committments by all of us to survive as a nation. Best to yah! Jazzy.

Post  42781  by  Czechsinthemail       OT: You've got to love this reasoning:
Post  42782  by  danking_70       OT: Jeffbas re CIA/FBI

Post  42783  by  JAZZMAN       Reply
tinljhtkh: Beautiful-you must have watched the movie "Patton"! Now there was a rich guy that loved his job! Hilary-that is another subject! Best to yah! Jazzy.

Post  42784  by  danking_70       OT: New Intelligence: See the evil, deny the evi
Post  42785  by  StockmanI7       OT: OT: Unrest in Syria

Post  42786  by  pacemakernj       Reply
Roof, RE: Gold. Why it will rise to $400 and beyond.

Roof, you know I've been pounding the table on interest rate cuts. You know I've talked relentlessly about AG having to choose between the dollar and the economy. Well this from S. Roach my favorite economist.

" But policy choices must be made. In my opinion, two priorities should be uppermost in the deliberative process-rebalancing a lopsided global economy and arresting the forces of deflation. The first concern is all about relative prices- shifting global demand away from the US and toward the rest of the world. This brings the dollar, the world's most important relative price into play. As I see it, the US should now welcome a sharp decline in the dollar- on the order of 15-20% decline of the trade weighted greenback. It would serve three purposes . First, it would be inflationary- putting an end to the unrelenting fall in import prices and thereby arresting the strain of "imported deflation" that is afflicting the US. Second, a weaker dollar is key to America's long overdue current account adjustment. Not only would it shift purchases from foreign to domestically produced products, but it would also reduce the growth of domestic demand; this latter development would stem from the higher real interest rates that typically accompany sharp currency corrections. Third, a weaker dollar would imply a strengthening of other major currencies- especially the Euro and the Yen. That might be exactly the kick the rest of the demand starved world needs to embrace long overdue pro-growth policy reforms.

Dno't get me wrong. I do not believe a weaker dollar is a panacea for all that ails the US or global economy. Nor do I believe in competitive currency devaluation as a means toward any end. Yet, an unbalanced world world needs a realignment of relative prices, and a weaker dollar is the most sensible way to achieve this, in my opinion. It also happens to be the one option with the greatest potential to stave off America's deflationary endgame. But the dollar can't do the job alone. Agressive Fed rate cuts-possibly on the order of 75bp-may well be required to trigger this adjustment in the US currency. Such easing would reinforce the dollar correction I have in mind, but it would also be helpful in putting a floor on American domestic demand-yet another remedy to contain deflation. Nor would I shy away from another dose of fiscal stimulus in this climate, especially tax cuts aimed at middle income workers.

The odds of outright deflation are now high enough, in my view, for policy makers to take extraordinary actions to prevent it. There's always a risk that these actions might come too late to make a real difference for a post bubble economy. But at this point, the bigger risk is doing nothing. The time to act is now."

Roof, is this what I've been saying or what. I'm telling you gold is going to fly, imo.

Tin, I don't know if you will read this but this is why I am so bullish on physical assets versus paper. It is their time. I've stated many times before ALL governments will choose inflation over deflation/depression. This confirms it.



Post  42787  by  jeffbas       Reply
I would be interested in views on whether near the bottom the indexes DJII, S&P and NASDAQ might start to diverge. The reason I am thinking this is that the NASDAQ has been hit far harder than anything else (even if you discount the last 1-2,000 points on the upside). Also NASDAQ stocks by and large are unaffected by the impact on earnings that increased pension contributions will have in coming years, and NASDAQ stocks may be where growth comes when it finally does. I am quite open-minded on this issue, and could make a case for the other side as well, but wondered if any one has an opinion.

Post  42788  by  Decomposed       ot: Hussein lookalikes
Post  42789  by  danking_70       OT: Stockman17

Post  42790  by  Decomposed       Reply

Yesterday, a judge turned down the WTC-owners' claim that insurance companies had to pay them for TWO attacks. In that article, the owners stated that their total loss amounted to more than $8 billion.

And that, obviously, was just the tip of the iceberg in terms of what the attack cost our country, not to mention the world.

I'm sure you're right about us being past the $100 billion mark on 9-11 related costs. $100 billion to prosecute Iraq is, indeed, chump change.

Post  42791  by  tinljhtkh       OT: Hi Jazzy!

Post  42792  by  Czechsinthemail       Reply
11:44 ET NVIDIA (NVDA): 8.90 +0.03: NVDA announced yesterday that it was effectively going to give its employees a $66 mln gift by allowing them to swap underwater stock options for common stock. The fact that there was little market reaction to this plan indicates that investors still have a high degree of tolerance for abuse.

In the technology world, stock options are a common and useful tool of compensation, but the popping of the tech bubble left most of these options worthless. The result? Boards of tech companies have sometimes exchanged options with high, pre-crash strike prices for options with strike prices at current depressed levels. This policy has drawn criticism from some shareholders who believe that the whole concept of options creating an incentive to work hard is destroyed if the options are repriced when the stock price falls.

In this NVDA case, however, the gift to employees was much greater, and much less justifiable, than a simple swap of old options for new. The company is actually granting common stock to holders of underwater options, without those option holders having to pay any strike price at all! Let's say you're an NVDA employee with 10,000 options priced at $50. Under this new program, you can swap those options for shares whose value equals the initial 10,000 amount multiplied by $3.20. In this case, that would be $32,000 in stock, or roughly 3,600 shares. The employee would therefore be trading 10,000 virtually worthless options for 3,600 shares valued at $32,000 (less applicable tax withholdings).

NVDA has the nerve to claim that this swap will help "retain and motivate" its employees. NVDA is based in Santa Clara, the heart of the current tech recession. Our guess is that most employees are probably happy just to have a job right now, and to the extent they aren't, handing them this very liquid gift of shares probably makes them more rather than less likely to leave. As for motivating, how is a gift of common stock a more potent motivator than new options with lower strike prices? Half of the shares are eligible for immediate sale, offering little motivational value (25% must be held six months, and the final 25% for one year).

For shareholders, there will be roughly 3% dilution and a charge that will approach $66 mln in the current quarter. Brokerage firm analysts are largely cheering the move this morning, confirming that conflicts of interest are alive and well on Wall Street. CSFB was an outlier, gently chiding the company by noting that while retaining employees was a good thing, the "means enlisted are somewhat counter to shareholder's interests..." NVDA employees are probably nice people and we'd hate to say that they shouldn't get this gift, but if you're a shareholder, you would be justified in asking the company why it's your responsibility to foot the bill. If you don't get an acceptable answer, move on to another investment. - Greg Jones,

Post  42793  by  gjwigginto       OT: re CIA/FBI
Post  42794  by  maniati       OT: Stockman: Now, there's a scary post if I ever

Post  42795  by  jeffbas       Reply
I'd be surprised if this could legally be done w/o shareholder approval.

Post  42796  by  StockmanI7       OT: Maniati and Dan,

Post  42797  by  lkorrow       Reply
Success in the Middle East

Pace, I have been thinking about your note and the various others posted recently. I can't hold a candle to the protectors of our Nation, some of whom have chosen to participate on Table. The Marines have landed! But let me take a minute and try to express my feelings on that which impacts all of us -- not just the fine men and women that put their lives on the line for Freedom and world peace, but those that they protect here and around the world as well.

The gravity of the Middle East situation obviously has our attention. You bottom-lined a viewpoint in saying, "I am telling you that this mid east situation HAS TO GET RESOLVED and NOW! WE need to defeat these people and bring democracy to that region just like we did after WWII to Japan and Germany. . . . It is about long lasting world peace. The Arab community is the only one that has been left out of the Democratic process. It is time they get on board. Otherwise some of those things you talk about might become reality and those folks will NEVER catch up." This is true and begs the question, where do we go from here.

Arkural posted two "horror of war" posts as I'll refer to them. I was saddened again by the prospect and reality of war and killing and the terrible scenes of September 11, 2001. It was the event that couldn’t happen, but it did. It can not happen again, nor can weapons of mass destruction be used anywhere. We can only hope that this can be settled with minimal loss of life, without Israel or the U. S. being forced into a nuclear response. One could plainly see that George Bush was truly pained when he quietly said the Middle East will be at peace or go nuclear in 5-10 years. Who wouldn’t feel the weight of such a decision. He is a decent human being. No one wants that to happen, it’s a lose-lose situation.

There is so much at stake here from the possible cessation of life to a global depression. The Middle East and the rest of the world need a sound global economy. We all need each other and life is so very precious. We all have needs and they CAN be satisfied peacefully. This is the basis of the economic playing field.

Yes, the issues must be resolved quickly. Out of the anger on both sides of this conflict must come a determination to move on to a better quality of life and to reinstate mutual respect between the peoples of the world. To forgive but not forget the past and to move forward. The world, including the Middle East, must get on with business. Life saving business too. Every human life is important, each is a gift from God. The good people will realize that we all need to work together, not against one another.

What is being missed here is the big picture. The big picture is that we are all human beings and we all need each other. We have interrelationships between our nations and I have mentioned some of the life-threatening challenges that we all face -- from overpopulation to global warming and rising sea levels, to a rapid depletion of fresh water and food supplies, to methane hydrate and asteroids. On a more individual level, the cure for cancer and disease. We need to focus on productive pursuits, not destructive ones and we need a global economy and team to do it. Diversity is our great strength and the key to survival and effective teams. This is an opportunity for all.

The reality is we all contribute to team efforts in our daily lives. Individuals and individual nations are important and should be cherished. The global team contributes to success or failure of the whole. A team has many silent partners. In the case of a medical breakthrough, for example, the team includes everyone from doctors to cleaning people, power suppliers, scientists, designers, builders and construction engineers, manufacturers of equipment, computer people, suppliers and the customer, insurers, and security people, the list goes on. We are all cogs in the wheel. All share in the achievement. But why doesn’t the Middle East seem to understand this?

Perhaps the root cause of the move to terrorism was a fear of the U. S. I don’t mean to suggest that the people of the Middle East are not brave. I saw a proud and noble determination in the people of Afghani in their fight against the Russians years ago and I hoped they would succeed. The Russian’s goal was conquest. But this is not our culture or our history. Why should any nation be the property of another? It’s wrong. If the root cause of September 11 was such a fear of being taken over, then that fear is what has to be discussed and addressed.

“We need to defeat these people and bring democracy to that region.” A strong statement, but the stakes are very high. What we need to defeat is hatred and violence. It is not that we wish to rule the world. Clearly, we have helped countries like Japan and German to get back on their feet and contribute to the world and to their own development. They were and continue to be two very diverse cultures that retained their identity. Even though they were militarily conquered. They are not complaining about our help today. It was a win-win situation. So what is being defeated is not nations or people, but ignorance, fear, suppression of freedom and evil acts. In a cooperative effort everyone wins. The Middle East needs to move on from 800 palaces to 800 gardens without the ravages of war and people sacrificing themselves for the wrong ideals. A new vision is needed and must be conveyed to the people. In fact, the people must be engaged in producing it.

What we must recognize is people fear change. Everyone does. We are comfortable in our own little world, with all its barriers happily in place. But it really is a lot more fun when we go out to watch the game at a Sports Bar! So what I’m saying is there must be a lot of communication to generate buy-in from the people. Isolation doesn’t work, continuous interaction and communication are the means to understanding. Otherwise, the terrorism will never end, whether induced by the East or the West. This does not mean culture can’t be preserved.

We must recognize that human nature suggests that one is being tricked, that change is not beneficial. A case can be presented and fully accepted, but doubt creeps in. So ongoing discussion and repetition is needed to maintain comfort levels. I learned this IBM, who was responding to an outsourcing RFP and discussing how to best help the people impacted by the outsourcing. It’s an important point. People need continuous attention. This will be faced by the leaders in the Middle East as they attempt to convince their people that suicide is bad, for example.

We need the help of the people of the Middle East and they need our help. We need to be partners. We need to respect each other again. “Man” is inherently flawed. Some on both sides of this conflict have compromised their morals and self-respect, whether it be through suicide bomber mentalities or those of greedy corporate leaders. The most important tool in the resolution of our ills is our education systems and mass media. We must all work towards resolving our inadequacies. We can only discover and try to correct such wrongs. It’s about making progress.

What is evident is everyone must talk more and work together with a mutual intent to get work done rather than just talk about it. As an American named Ross Chapman who was killed in Afghanistan fighting terrorism and defending freedom liked to say, “stand up and do something.” Both sides need to reassess and quickly. The common ground is our humanity, what we can do to help each other. A culture of hate can be changed, although not easily. This is a win-win.

This is the best path for all concerned. But we can muddle through without them, if that becomes necessary. Hopefully it doesn't.


Post  42798  by  ferociousD       OT: Abraham bush...

Post  42799  by  JAZZMAN       Reply
tinljhtkh: Nothing brings a nation together than a little adversity. Great post by the way! I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed-but I've got just as much right to spout off here as anyone! Speaking of mental blocks-do our Arab brothers have our attention{the bad ones!} I believe they do-now its up to us to start paying attention and take steps necessary for our survival. Tin-what you have to say about mandatory service for everyone is exactly what this country should be doing-after all what makes this country so great is the diversity of its citizens! Look at the brainpower and common sense that would be available in such a scenerio. Relegating the responsiblity to our uneducated or poor citizens is really plain wrong. I also feel that if a national health system isn't implemented soon many more businesses will close. Health care costs and prescription drug costs are out of control-ask any senior citizen about it! I agree with you Tin on JFK and his peace corp thinking, but more than that, he made along with his cabinet, major decisions on the right course of events to take on the Cuban Missile Crisis-otherwise we might not still be here! One only need watch "Saving Private Ryan", the movie-to understand the sacrifices that some of our brave military people made for us to allow us our freedom. If we fail now to get the message God help us! Best to yah! Jazzy.

Post  42800  by  lkorrow       OT: Tin, on your mention of Patton. He was a horse

Post  42801  by  uponroof       Reply
Warstud thanks for getting back to me and the tip to visit the CY board....lots of familiar faces there.

I am holding only 15K long shares of KRY and 100K long shares of CALVF. Keeping both feet out of gold until POG moves through the incredibly low cieling of 330 for good. Not going anywhere near the broad market as I believe we are about to crater.

I am not a day, week or month trader. In fact I started out buying gold as an 'insurance policy' but after the 200- 500% moves in some juniors and pennys (very nice profits) this has morphed into a fantastic trading opportunity to be measured in future months and years IMHO.

Both KRY and CALVF are not entirely dependent on POG which allows me to play around while waiting for this 2nd leg of the gold bull (after 330+) to arrive.

KRY has just won a legal battle in VZ and will be news driven for quite a while as the details of their financing for LC comes out in the near future. Getting Las Cristinas' 12 million ozs in one fell swoop is going to cause all sorts of gyrations as shares look for value based on details of the deal, expenses, production etc. This share is selling at 2.25 today but was selling in '98, before KRY established their mining operation in VZ, at $8.00 on mere speculation that they would get Las Cristinas. The legal residue, still hurting the shares through simple confusion, will eventually evaporate IMHO.

CALVF is not your normal penny stock (exploration outfit) as they have 2 established mines currently shuttered in S.Africa with proven reserves at 8+ million ozs (with only 10% of site explored). The first mine will start up in November this year (1+ months) and produce gold at $190 per ounce. The second will start up 4-5 months after sustained operation of the first. Incredibly this share is selling at .17+- and has been as high as $9.00.

I will be looking to add other gold stocks based on POG action. Remember, we are talking about 330, not 350, or 400 or even 450. 330 is pathetic in terms of historical values. POG was between 350 and 410 half of the 90's BEFORE 'the strong dollar policy' implementation which is at the heart of our current unnatural gold market. Once the artificial restaints on POG (check chart) are broken gold should move very quickly.

(JPM XAU chart):

Speaking of manipulators...

Anyone know who Capital Research and Management is? They are the #1 holder of JPM AND they are the #1 holder of ABX, NEM and others. They are an organization that has enough shares to play a JPM/ABX spread.

#1 holder of ABX:

#1 holder of JPM:

#1 holder of NEM:

On further research, it seems these quiet unassuming folks own close to 6% of world assets! But nevermind...the markets are free, and I'm imagining things.

Back to gold....the last unencumbered, free and clear wealth left on the planet.

S. Africa, as a nation, is suffering from lack of skilled leadership to some degree. There's talk of nationalizing the mines which is scaring off investors. I don't believe this will ever happen but the perception has finally gotten the best of the investment world. Look for N. Americans to do as well as the S. Aficans on the next leg up.

Some stocks to consider: GG, AEM, GOLD, DROOY, KGC, HL, KRY, CDE, SSRI, BGO, SLGLF, VIA, CALVF, YWO, RNG

BTW gold has found a trading range between 318 and 326 which might be played with futures contracts. Might buy some this afternoon thinking Monday will be up and away again.

Some TA on gold's recent action:

So take your pick on what will be the trigger: American equity markets (Buffet: "mass halucination"), American Banking sector (JPM in scuba very soon), American war in the M.E. (a NOT SO funny thing happened on the way to Babylon), Terror attack in America ("not if, but when"-Cheney), FED interest rate reductions (SEE PACE'S POST #42786, btw-Freddy just went sub 6%!), European interst rate reductions (they are in trouble too-check CSFB report just out), Germany going #### up (Tech exchange closes-Schroeder has no answers), Japan going #### up (too many to list), South America going #### up (contagion IS for real), Japanese banking sector (BOJ vs Koizumi), Asian CB's buying gold reserves (China playing to win, not co exist), gold producers covering hedges (NEM, ABX alone will be buying 400 tonnes over the next year) reduced production again this year (down 3% globally), the gummint about to allow gold based vehicles in mutuals and 401s......OH AND LET'S NOT FORGET THE CB'S LEASING OUT TONNES (10-15K TONNES=4-6 years global production) GOLD TO BULLION BANKS WHO ARE NOW IN A SHORT SQUEEZE AS POG RISES....check this out:

So Austrailia is now OUT OF GOLD. Interesting that POG in Aussie currency is today selling at 588. per ounce. Wonder how much that 1.47% exchange rate carrot cost them in mark to market now?

Too many reasons not to have at least a small stake (10-20%) in gold.

Good Luck


Post  42802  by  pacemakernj       OT: Linda, wonderful post...

Post  42803  by  maniati       Reply
Question: Which tech stock has suffered the worst percentage drop in the last few years? I don't happen to know the answer. I'll offer one as a basis for comparison, and I'll be curious to see what else you guys come up with.

The rules are:

1. The company must still be in existence, in some form.
2. It cannot be in bankruptcy.
3. Compute the % drop from its all-time high to its lowest price subsequent to the all-time high.
4. The all-time high had to occur in 1998 or later.
5. Make sure you take splits into account.

Ok, I'll go first, and I'll offer up Lucent. Adjusting for dividends (the Yahoo "adjusted close"), it was at $62.69 on December 20, 1999. Today, it closed at $.76. When you include the Agere shares (both class A and B) that were distributed to LU shareholders, today's "adjusted" price of the old LU is $1.02.

That's a 98.4% drop.

Post  42804  by  pmcw       Reply
It was easy to be LU - How about NT. June 2000 high $88.99. Close today at $0.45 for a 99.5% drop. However, I doubt it was the worst. I'll bet you can still find half the market cap lost during the last 2.5 years in 1% of the companies that were public on 1/1/2000. Regards, pmcw

Post  42805  by  clo       OT: maniati, I don't have time right now, nor the
Post  42806  by  lkorrow       OT: Thanks Pace, I agree with you 100% on immediat
Post  42807  by  tinljhtkh       OT: "L"
Post  42808  by  lkorrow       OT: these stocks have a common thread, all telecom
Post  42809  by  lkorrow       OT: Tin, you're right, only histoy will tell. I th
Post  42810  by  lkorrow       OT: Pace, meant to comment on the perfect world. Y

Post  42811  by  Iggys_T.V._Eye       Reply
ITWO closed at $110.44 on 3/09/2000. Today's close was .56.
that's about a 99.5% drop. That is a lot of market cap. I bet that is not even the biggest drop.

Post  42812  by  lkorrow       Reply
Hughes CEO Denies Buyout Rumors

Hughes Electronics President and CEO Jack Shaw denied that certain executives are pondering a buyout of the company's DirecTV unit if its pending merger with EchoStar fails to win approval from federal regulators.

In a letter sent to the Los Angeles Times, which reported on the rumored buyout on Wednesday, Shaw said, "rumors or speculation about a management buyout are simply that – no such alternative is being considered." Shaw also said in the letter that DirecTV President Roxanne Austin has denied statements in the L.A. Times article, attributed to “sources,” that she had indicated to her top leadership team that a DirecTV management buyout is a possibility
if the merger is not approved.

Shaw also said in the letter that the leadership at General Motors, Hughes, and all of its operating businesses, including DirecTV, "are firmly and fully committed to our proposed merger with EchoStar. The focus of the management team of Hughes and its operating businesses is to successfully complete the merger with EchoStar and to operate our company as efficiently and competitively as we can – delivering on our financial commitments and business plans."

The Los Angeles Times reported that executives at DirecTV have positioned a proposed buyout of the company as a better alternative to selling the satellite TV service to Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. if EchoStar can't win regulatory approval for the merger. News Corp. lost the
biding war for DirecTV to EchoStar last October, but has surfaced again as the likely buyer if EchoStar can't complete the deal.

-- SkyReport, 10/27/2002

Post  42813  by  pacemakernj       OT: Linda, one fight at a time. Pace.

Post  42814  by  srudek       Reply
Noland--Does "clever" risk mitigation increase risk?

Is it coincidence that methods and structures aggressively incorporated by market participants to mitigate risk – that had been “irrefutably” proven by years of successful returns – ushered in devastating market losses that were considered remotely low probability events?

“Money” that flooded into the marketplace to play the S&P500 and NASDAQ100 severely inflated and distorted the stock market (while altering risk behavior in the financial system and distorting the economy). And the greater the asset inflation, the greater the demand for the assets (and the more likely one of myriad leveraging strategies would be incorporated – margin debt, derivatives, rising corporate and household borrowings). It all became one big (and increasingly leveraged) speculation on a commodity, “the stock market,” with perceived diversification risks greatly diminished and ballooning asset-Bubble risk virtually unrecognized. Now, post-stock Bubble, money flees the mutual fund complex. The depth and length of the bear market will be exacerbated as individuals become increasingly financially weakened and disillusioned by “the market,” while at the same time individual company stocks will lack the normal underpinning provided by investors’ conviction as to fair company economic value. “Contemporary” finance profoundly altered investor risk perceptions and market dynamics, which led to severe distortions in the marketplace and economy. “Investors” lost their market bet and will now think long and hard before placing more speculations. Wild speculations are destabilizing and inevitably detrimental to market-based systems and economies (regardless of post-Bubble central bank wishes and actions).

Post  42815  by  srudek       Reply
cmgi-I'd call it a tech stock. Well over two hundred dollars a share in early 2000 (don't know exact high; help anyone?). Closed today at 37 cents. So, based on $200 it's lost something more than 99.815%.

But I'm optimistic it'll recover! Can you imagine going to work there each morning? ;-)

Post  42816  by  tinljhtkh       OT: "L"
Post  42817  by  lkorrow       OT: Pace, thanks, good point. It's the planning ba

Post  42818  by  lkorrow       Reply
Tin, That's the difficult part, I don't want a single American to die. While I think we need to address terrorism now, there were options in Ark's post, I think, that would minimize our involvement. I'm in favor of the Iraqi people knocking off sadam and the inspectors, including the U. S. Army, go in to check out the place. They probably have more hiding places than you can shake a stick at. Maybe some of those lazer weapons that maldinero posted about can zap their supplies. I don't like the whole thing, but one thing stared me in the face through the haze, they want to kill us all.

Yes, I'm going to go back to on topic too. I may take a break for awhile to do some other things. I enjoy your writing, looking forward to see your market analysis!

Post  42819  by  tinljhtkh       Reply

exds, xoxo, and mrch--they're all bankrupt and that is a 100 percent loss!

Other big winners include corv at .57, genu at .26, nt at .57, palm at .74, rstn at .61, cyto at .57, lor at .30, among others!



PS--nt at .57 may be the saddest of all! These were all yesterdays closes! I refuse to look on friday night as a matter of principle!

Post  42820  by  tinljhtkh       Reply
"looking forward to see your market analysis!"

I'll give you a preview--it stinks!

Stick around, I'm not going to be gone long!



Post  42821  by  Userisme       Reply
Arkural: E-mini popular? Having run through their wealthy clients the brokers are lowering the bar to entice the hoi-poloi. Did you know that 90% of the people who trade in futures lose money? It's fraught with hazards and many futures brokers' standards are more miserable than than those on Wall St.

The great futures trader Larry Williams published a book in 1973 (I think) "How I Made a Million Dollars Last Year Trading Commodities." The following year he lost a million dollars. In 1987 several commodity funds managed Richard Dennis lost 50% of their capital and had to cease trading.

In my opinion no one should trade futures, including the mini and coming futures on 70 odd stocks unless they can lose $100,000 with equanimity. It's a zero sum game and novices are competing against some of the cleverest most up to the minute well informed people on the planet. Means, medians, averages, normal distribution and standard deviations are passe. They have powerful (and expensive) computerized programs that can perform myriad, complicated calculations taking into account trans exchange arbitrage in the blink of an eye.

Post  42822  by  lkorrow       Reply
Tin, I know how I feel about the market. I'm taking some time to focus on something else, not related to your taking the weekend off. My intent is to catch up on posts, depending on how many are in the backlog.

Tell me, which war did the Marines in your family fight in? I wonder if they would agree with your stance.