Table On-Topic Summary - 30-Sep-2002
A compilation of this board's financial/economic posts From 42903 to 42981

Post  42903  by  pmcw       OT: OCU, Sounds like you had some fun. Always som

Post  42904  by  maniati       Reply
The entry to beat is still Inktomi (INKT), with a drop of 99.8705%, submitted by gjwigginto. Apologies to anyone whose eyes glazed over during the CDDD discussion. Let's just pretend that didn't happen, and see if anyone can beat 99.8705%.

Post  42905  by  oldCADuser       Reply
Yea, It was...

" We all thought of you as he news of EDS was released. I hope all is well. I know the breach of trust is probably tougher to take than the financial loss."

...a bit of a shock considering a month ago the exec's were telling all of us that we would make the streets estimate of 74 cents. I only directly own 340 shares of EDS, but my options are so underwater that we may be below "crush-depth".


Post  42906  by  lkorrow       OT: Cape May fans, the secret's out!

Post  42907  by  lkorrow       Reply
OCU, welcome back, glad your exposure wan't worse. Both stock and the trip. It sure is great to see a heard of animals. Maybe you ran into some of Ted Turner's buffalo!

Post  42908  by  Decomposed       OT: Table ON TOPIC SUMMARY Sep 29, 2002
Post  42909  by  Decomposed       ot: Puzzle
Post  42910  by  ljpit       ot: decomposed, you should go work in Hollywood. I

Post  42911  by  srudek       Reply
Is it a "Liquidity Trap" or "Collapse of Pool of Real Funding"?
As this fiasco unfolds, "mainstream/Keynesian economics" is increasingly looking more like voodoo than a real science or engineering discipline. When you look at the state of the economy you've got to give 100% credit to Keynesian and mainstream economics. Of course, mainstream economists will want to deny the truth, but what we're facing is because of following the finest principles of mainstream economics, not in spite of it. The world's economic meltdown is a pure example of mainstream economics at its unfettered finest. Isn't it a bit insane for us to expect the same voodoo which produced this mess to fix this mess?

I increasingly suspect that when this chapter in world history is over, much of the foundation of mainstream economic thought will need to be sent to the same place we've sent such "science" as the use of leeches to cure illness. However, I don't expect mainstream economists and bankers to go easily.

I've been reading about the Austrian School of economics. The Austrian school is generally considered "quaint", at best, apparently because it has said, all along, that if a society does what we've been doing it will lead to precisely the sort of economic disaster we see unfolding around us.

Anyway, has an interesting diagnosis and fix for the pickle Japan, and possibly the rest of the world, is in.


According to most experts, what Japan is currently experiencing is a classical "liquidity trap." The only way out of this trap, it is argued, is through extremely aggressive monetary pumping by the BOJ that would lift consumers spending and revive the economy.

We find this way of thinking extraordinary, considering the fact that the BOJ has been pursuing an aggressive monetary policy for many years. Moreover, during the past year and a half, the BOJ has intensified its monetary injections, and yet the economy has continued to stagnate. The main reason for this stagnation is not the mythical "liquidity trap," but the collapse of the pool of real funding as a result of aggressive monetary and fiscal policies. All that is now required to revive the economy is not more of the same, which weakens the economy further, but a drastic reduction of the government and central bank involvement with the economy.

Post  42912  by  uponroof       Reply
Foreclosures at all time highs...

"...More liberal lending practices have helped boost U.S. home ownership to 68 percent of all households, up from 63 percent a decade ago. But experts say some of the innovative loans, including ones for 97 percent and even 125 percent of the home's value, are showing cracks under the stress of an economic downturn.

"If Joe Sixpack can only scrape together 3 percent of the value of the home or less and has to borrow the rest, he's got no cushion if he loses his job or gets divorced," said James Croft, executive director of the Mortgage Asset Research Institute.

Not unlike when stocks started plummeting, the mortgage miseries have stirred panic among many distressed borrowers and prompted a sharp rise in demand for financial counseling..."

Post  42913  by  uponroof       Reply
FTSE down 3+%, Swiss down 4+%, France down 5+%, Germany down 4+%....all European markets looking very weak. Reports coming out last week warning of European weakness look to be right on. ECB saying no easing ahead. G7 discussed BoJ banking sector buying this last that was interesting! Dow futures off 70. Might be a very ugly week ahead. Gold up $2.50 this morning and I'm wishing I had taken my own advice in buying those futures on Friday. Gold getting very predictable bouncing nicely between 319-326.

btw- liberal candidate leading in Brazil at 43% of the vote. This is very bad news for JPMC via IMF policy rejection.

"...Market favorite Jose Serra, the candidate backed by President Fernando Henrique Cardoso's ruling coalition, trailed a distant second. He slipped to 18 percent support from 19 percent. Financial markets are on edge over the possibility of Brazil turning left, despite the former unionist's promises to keep economic policies stable, and the worries sent the real currency plunging to record lows on Friday..."

Post  42914  by  uponroof       Reply
The dollar and gravity...
IMF meetings this weekend dominated by discussions of the dollar.

WASHINGTON After more than two decades during which the United States bought and consumed far more than it produced, has payback time finally arrived?

A growing number of the bankers and finance officials from around the world who gathered in Washington over the weekend for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank say it is near - and if it is not, they suggest, then it should be.

"The current gaps between growth in real domestic demand and real output cannot be sustained indefinitely," the Fund warned in its latest review of the world economy. The imbalances in the U.S. economy, it said, are now so big that they pose a "significant risk" to global financial stability..."

btw- looking weak overnight and this morning

Post  42915  by  uponroof       Reply
Worst of US Q3 profit warnings not over: analysts

"...'I find it even more troubling that we're doing more poorly than in the first quarter,' said O'Keefe. 'I wasn't expecting that companies would turn in a better performance than the second quarter, but I don't think anyone thought we'd fall all the way back to where we were at the beginning of the year.'

Even as pre-announcements continue to flow in, actual results will be getting under way this week. Alcoa will be the first Dow Jones index stock to kick off the reporting season on Friday. Other companies that are scheduled to report earnings include Pepsi Bottling Group, Walgreen, Marriott and Research in Motion. While the bad news from corporate earnings is expected to continue, investors must also brace for dark clouds on the economic front.

Economic reports on personal income and personal spending, national and regional manufacturing activity, and activity in the services sector of the economy are forthcoming.

But most significant of all, say analysts, is the September report on unemployment, to be released on Friday. It is expected to go some ways toward shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve's policymaking committee meeting in November.,2276,59023,00.html?

uponroof- I'll go out on a limb and say the Unemployment Number will be....drum roll please......SURPRISE!!!...."encouraging"

Post  42916  by  uponroof       Reply
btw-Euro markets
(with thanks to Richard 640)

"They be talkin some serious s**t on CNBC... this a.m.--I saw the European report from London about 5:15 today and he said, very solemnly, that there was FORCED SELLING among the big pension funds that control some $3.3 trillion!!! He said that it was not follow thru to the U.S sell-off, Friday.....things are getting REAL interesting!!!!!!"

gotta run

Post  42917  by  pacemakernj       OT: Linda, I told you that Cape May was great. Did

Post  42918  by  Czechsinthemail       Reply
Beware the Hedgehogs
The New York Times
September 5, 2002

WASHINGTON — In the course of writing a Nixon speech imposing wage and price controls (I was only playing the piano downstairs, officer), I zapped "speculators" who were roiling the global gold and currency markets.

Arthur Burns reminded me that it was Bernard Baruch who startled Congressional investigators in 1917 by asserting coolly, "I am a speculator." Arbitrageurs, speculators and short-sellers, Baruch and later Burns explained, all help spread risk and make markets more liquid. That was then; now it's gotten out of hand. The hidden hands of speculators, profiting from bad-news rumormongering, good-news insidership and no-news accounting, made markets unsafe for ordinary investors.

Prosecutors hungry for publicity are subjecting billionaire suspects to "perp walks" in handcuffs before cameras. But few of the supposed watchdogs and gatekeepers deal with the market's structural weaknesses that go beyond ethical blindness and outright fraud.

One cause of the unusual, unstable jerking around of the stock markets - with dizzying swings of 4 percent in a day - is the kudzu-like growth of hedge funds, which have quintupled in the past decade.

These are not your usual mutual funds. Because these agglomerations of capital are set up by wealthy and supposedly sophisticated investors, the government leaves them largely unregulated, and the funds' managers can keep their investments secret. Because many of those managers take not just a fee but 20 percent of any profits from the funds' investments, their incentive is to borrow heavily from a friendly bank or broker and roll the dice.

So what, you say - let the richies take their chances. But such leveraged risk-taking, now on a huge scale, adds to the volatility of all markets. Also, some managers who have hedged their investment bets - by selling short in expectation of a decline in a stock - have an incentive to spread rumors of bad news, just as buyers have an incentive to tout stocks with rosy predictions.

Hedge funds are deliberately opaque. This concealment of investments protects them from competing funds, claim the 20-percenters. However, their secrecy masks an operation that the public would benefit from opening to the light of day.

Stealthily, the S.E.C. in June began an investigation into this $300 billion world. Two months ago the commission sent demands for information to registered investment advisers about hedge-fund activity. More recently, unregistered advisers who are more active hedgehogs were sent similar letters from the S.E.C.'s Division of Investment Management.

Though its acronym is DIM, the division's brighter staff members are at first looking into fraud in hedge-fund operations. These investment vehicles have long been unmonitored solely because they are supposed to be limited to institutions, university endowments, net-worthies and other high rollers. Later, as the investigation with its subpoena power moves into the audit stage, DIM's questioning is expected to broaden: What kind of new investors are being lured into hedge funds?

Many of these funds have done less badly than stock indexes in the recent past's sinking market, and some shrewd managers earn the high percentage of profit they take down. (Such feigning of fairness is known in my dodge as the "to be sure" sentence; it is followed by a "but.")

But one of those reputable managers tells me that in recent years his industry has attracted sharpies and crapshooters eager to get in on a deal that enables them to profit handsomely on no personal investment - while other investors take the high risk.

Many hedgehogs will tell you that market volatility is caused less by their leveraged machinations than by the growth of program trading. They say the computer is the culprit, regularly forming what used to be illegal "bear pools" to drive down stock prices. I don't buy that.

Hedge funds, with their bank-backed leverage multiplied by investment in derivatives, ought to be required to disclose their operations, same as mutual funds. "Protect the rich" is not much of a bumper sticker, but what the risk-prone hedgehogs do has a nervous-making effect on the rest of the market. In economics as in politics, secrecy generates suspicion. Disclosure, especially in detail, begets the bored yawn of confidence. We can use a little more of that trust this year.

Post  42919  by  lkorrow       Reply
Pace, No, didn't make it. Spectacular Christmas sounds like a good idea, it's doable being not all that far away. We'll consider it!

How about this market. I like to see my gold up, but not the Dow down 195 in a half hour. I wonder if it will come back later. There should be some people jumpng in later, I hope.

Post  42920  by  lkorrow       Reply
CNBC poll, are we in a recession? 77 percent, yes.

CNBC commentary paraphrased, I can't believe it, the results would be better on Friday when people are in a better mood!

Post  42921  by  uponroof       Reply
RBA General Comments

The European equity markets are down 4%-5% across the board as I write this. The yield on the 10 year US treasury is down 4 basis points again at 3.62% even as speculative grade spreads continue to widen, now at 1442.6 Gold is up $3.40 an ounce at $324.50.

This is what is known as a flight to safety out of equities and corporate bonds and into risk free bonds and hard assets. There is a financial storm brewing all over the world and institutional money is seeking a safe place to protect assets.

We are now well along on the path toward a world wide self actualizing and reinforcing "crash".

The more money is removed from the economy in search of shelter and safety, also know as risk mitigation, the harder the remaining money has to work to maintain the economy. As this continues the remaining money must be compensated for the increasing risk of failure by increasing the returns available to it.

However, once the returns necessary to mitigate the risk are not feasible, a "crash" occurs. We are quickly approaching that point.

Japan is now finally taking the steps necessary to bail out its banking system by using tax payer money to absorb the bad debts left over from the 1980's.

Now, here's the rub.

Their bad debts are estimated at between 500 billion and 3 trillion dollars. But let's just say that it is 500 billion for now.

The largest similar transfer in US and world history was the US S&L bail out which cost US tax payers $130 billion.

The US economy at 10 trillion dollars is 3 times that of Japans at about 3 trillion dollars.

Which means that on a percentage basis Japans debt problem is far more serious than the US S&L bail out was.

Which means simply absorbing the bad debts with tax payer money is not feasible.

Japan, although not discussing this option, will, in my opinion, have to nationalize much of the private asset base of the country for some portion of the bail out.

That means take over private bank accounts of individuals to access the cash to pay the debt off.

There is 2 trillion dollars in the Postal Saving System. This is a system of allowing mostly rural citizens to easily have "bank" accounts.

The Liberal Democratic Party, LDP, the ruling party of Japan ever since the end of WW2, has its strong hold with voters in the rural areas.

We will probably witness the collapse of the LDP within the next few years as well, because of this.

We'll discuss more later.


Date Index Value* (Credit Spread Level/Divisor) Credit Spread Level(bps) Divisor Duration (years)
09/27 1442.6 942.3 0.65319 3.9
09/26 1423.8 930.0 0.65319 4.0
09/25 1417.5 925.9 0.65319 4.0
09/24 1437.5 943.4 0.65627 4.0
09/23 1415.2 928.7 0.65627 4.0

Home Sick
A. Gary Shilling, 10.14.02


The now-strong housing market will hurt in the coming second recession. Those who got easy mortgage loans won't be able to handle them. It all will ripple upward.

The implosion will start among first-time homebuyers with few other assets. They support the whole housing market through the move-up chain, whose links are tenuous. Ralph Kramden buys a small tract home from Al Bundy, who moves up to purchase Mike Brady's more spacious split-level, which Mike sells to resettle his bunch in the McMansion of Reginald van Gleason III.

What will burst the bubble? Don't look for the usual suspects--interest rate hikes or overbuilding. Look instead for a second recessionary dip brought on by wealth losses and pink slips, pressuring consumers to retrench. When the Ralphs of the nation are laid off, they won't be able to make the mortgage payments on the homes they've bought or to buy a house to begin with. Then the bad news ripples through the move-up market. People like me living in tony Short Hills, N.J. really do need to think about home sales in gritty Newark.

As housing demand dries up, prices will fall and the whole mechanism will work in reverse. Those with big leverage will see their equity wiped out, forcing them to sell, pushing prices still lower. Up to now, house appreciation has been offsetting stock losses for many people. That helpful phenomenon will then be history.

As already-rising delinquency rates go higher, lenders will withdraw. Bankers are reluctant to begin widespread foreclosures, a p.r. no-no, yet they surely will no longer be as loose with lending as they are today. Also, delinquent mortgages don't provide them the resources for additional lending. A big question is whether Fannie's and Freddie's losses will force a bailout, a great fear in Washington where memories of the S&L debacle a decade ago are still vivid.

Triggering Abrupt Climate Change - Can Global Warming Cause an "Ice Age"?


Global warming could actually lead to a big chill in some parts of the world. If the atmosphere continues to warm, it could soon trigger a dramatic and abrupt cooling throughout the North Atlantic region—where, not incidentally, some 60 percent of the world’s economy is based.

When I say “dramatic,” I mean: Average winter temperatures could drop by 5 degrees Fahrenheit over much of the United States, and by 10 degrees in the northeastern United States and in Europe. That’s enough to send mountain glaciers advancing down from the Alps. To freeze rivers and harbors and bind North Atlantic shipping lanes in ice. To disrupt the operation of ground and air transportation. To cause energy needs to soar exponentially. To force wholesale changes in agricultural practices and fisheries. To change the way we feed our populations. In short, the world, and the world economy, would be drastically different.

And when I say “abrupt,” I mean: These changes could happen within a decade, and they could persist for hundreds of years. You could see the changes in your lifetime, and your grandchildren’s grandchildren will still be confronting them.

And when I say “soon,” I mean: In just the past year, we have seen ominous signs that we may be headed toward a potentially dangerous threshold. If we cross it, Earth’s climate could switch gears and jump very rapidly—not gradually— into a completely different mode of operation.

btw- gold at 324+

pace/Linda...Cape May is the Victorian homes and atmosphere.....try the ferry to Lewes Delaware....more victorian sea town quaintness, much less built up

Problem is, every time I visit, I get an uncontrollable urge to run home and fix up/paint my house.

Post  42922  by  garhart       Reply
Clo, I miss your wonderful postings, they often make my day. I hope all is well with you. I cannot get out much any more, but my thanks to all who have made this board one of my favorite places to visit. I am not well, but it does me much to good to see thinking people with diverse opinions treating each other with civility. There are many fine people here who inspire me daily. Though I do not agree with each of you, I thank you all for the care you show for a world which needs it so. A very special thanks to EZ, who introduced me this very special place.

Post  42923  by  oldCADuser       Reply
Since I collect gas mileage data whenever I take a long trip I felt it might be interesting to report on what I found along the way. Note that these figures are not necessarily representative of what local prices really are since most of these purchases were at freeway exits and all were done with credit cards. Note that this data was taken during the period of 12 Sept through 28 Sept.

The highest price actually paid was here in SoCal at $1.69 for unleaded regular. The lowest was $1.24 in Jackson, MS. The actual highest price observed was $2.15 in Baker, CA (this is in the middle of the Mojave Desert about 80 miles from Vegas). Note that we did NOT purchase gas in Baker, but waited until Victorville (another 60 miles closer to LA) where we paid $1.45 (which I admit was much lower then I expected to pay there). One thing I also noted (and I have noted this before) is that the definition of "regular" varies depending on where in the country you are. The vast majority of places had "regular" listed as 87 octane. However in El Paso it was 86 and throughout South Dakota, Wyoming, Colorado and Utah it was 85 but in one location in Minnesota, it was actually 89.

Anyway, I thought this might be of interest to some of you here.


Post  42924  by  maniati       OT: OCU: Welcome Back!
Post  42925  by  kduff       OT: pmcw, trivia... this may have been answered as

Post  42926  by  jeffbas       Reply
uponroof, I wonder if there is another way out of Japan's problems. Historically, I believe inflation bails out a lousy balance sheet - as assets command a higher price and liabilities do not. I wonder how this would work there, and how to achieve it - just turn on the printing presses? Of course, there would be a political fallout as savings would be devalued/destroyed - which contributed to the rise of Fascism in Germany.

Inflation, NOT deflation, is what would drive the gold price materially higher in my opinion. When asset prices are declining the primary economic effect on the price of gold is down, aside from occasional price bumps due to fears of one sort or another. If a bar of gold used to buy one house and now it buys two houses (deflation in the real economy) that creates pressure on the price of gold.

Post  42927  by  maniati       Reply
srudek: The biggest knock against the Austrian school is that it eschews quantitative analysis, and applies what it considers are "a priori" principles to economic situations. That's what makes it so "quaint." But that is a problem, you know. It's hardly science when it disavows the scientific method, which it does. That school of thought has its good points, but, if your past posts are any guide, I might expect that you are going to jump onto the Austrian school bandwagon with religious fervor. But, did you know that the "Austiran school" believes almost religiously in the private ownership of property - including land? Are you willing to go that far? Should the federal government sell all the national parks to the paper industry, and ANWR to the oil companies? IMO, you can't be too religious about economics; today's dogma can become dated very quickly.

Take "mainstream economics," for example. You can't exactly call it Keynesian. That would be too simplistic. It's an amalgam of thought, including Keynesian, post-Keynesian, monetarism, etc. The old ideas don't completely die away; they get re-worked, updated, assimilated. And "mainstream economics" is hardly monolithic, so it's hard to attempt to describe it or classify it. I don't see how one can describe a clear dichotomy between it and the Austrian school. As the old saying goes, "if you took all the economists in the world, and laid them end-to-end, they would never reach a conclusion." There's a reason for that.

BTW, I have heard other economists - not of the "Austrian school" - say that what is happening in Japan is not a classic liquidity trap, though their solutions do tend to differ dramatically from that proposed in the article that you posted.

Post  42928  by  pdowd       OT: Dear Garhart !!

Post  42929  by  jeffbas       Reply
oldCADuser, your trip made very interesting reading. I particularly want to commend you for stopping for that accident, which many would not have done. Your information (then, and I would guess in a future criminal proceeding) may contribute significantly to keeping that driver off the road, and saving other lives!

Post  42930  by  tinljhtkh       OT: Decomposed!
Post  42931  by  pdowd       OT: Thanks to all who wished us well prior to TS.
Post  42932  by  allbright       OT: Get your war on.
Post  42933  by  tinljhtkh       OT: Pmcw!

Post  42934  by  Briguy       Reply
Need advice or input from some of you...

Back in July I said I was going to short Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae...

For me, it was a no brainer. Taking the loan out against Freddie when he was sitting in the mid $70's was one of these easiest decision's I've ever made on the short end, along with JP Morgan.

I'm currently up around 19-20% on my short play with Freddie. My question to anyone who cares to offer input is, do you think there is more downside to said stock and secondly and more importantly, do you or do you not believe we are seeing a real estate bubble?

Post  42935  by  Decomposed       ot: Hurricane Lilly

Post  42936  by  Decomposed       Reply

The second question is a no-brainer. Yes, we're seeing a real estate bubble. A better question is, will there be a sharp drop in prices, or will prices stagnate for the next ten years? One way or the other, housing prices HAVE to come back to the more-or-less linear historic curve.

Post  42937  by  weevil       Reply
LU!!!! Gee, $7500 get you 10000 shares. Surely this puppy won't "belly up". I got my second buy of xico at 3.69 and I'm looking hard at LU instead of buying my last installment of xico. Fool soon parts with his money I guess.

Post  42938  by  Decomposed       Reply
I wouldn't buy ANYTHING right now, weevil. If you're determined to buy, hold off until next Monday or buy hedge stocks. A number of economic indicators come out this week, with the most significant being posted on Friday. There's a good chance this will be an exceptionally bad week and the markets will be pounded.

Post  42939  by  oldCADuser       OT: This was vacation,...

Post  42940  by  jeffbas       Reply
weevil, the price action is saying LU will go under AND so are the bonds:

It is a disastrous situation to have round after round of job cuts chasing ever declining sales. Meanwhile your debt becomes relatively more burdensome, and less serviceable, every day. If I had to buy LU, I would buy the bonds. I do not know if any have superior standing, but the one quoted will go up 2 1/2 times within 4 years, while paying 18% - IFFF they survive - and might give you some recovery if they do not. Who needs the stock!!

Post  42941  by  oldCADuser       OT: When we got home...
Post  42942  by  danking_70       OT: Ikorrow/PMCW re: Turkeys
Post  42943  by  oldCADuser       OT: I know exactly what you mean...

Post  42944  by  ribit       Reply
oldCADuser spite of the fact that it delayed your trip and put ya to a lot of inconvenience and could provide for some more disruption in the future, you did the right thing hanging around at the accident scene and giving your statement. I have been the "cop on the scene" where "nobody saw nothing". My hat is off to ya. Thanks for doing your part to make the roads safer!

Post  42945  by  oldCADuser       OT: Here's one for all of you space fan's out ther

Post  42946  by  jeffbas       Reply
OCU, although I am not an attorney, I would not be so sure that the parents are "suit-proof". For example, if the driver was in fact not totally financially independent, as in the parents helped pay for his car while knowing of his driving record, or gave him any material amounts of money (thereby indirectly enabling him to own a car), a good attorney will have them sweating. The fact they bailed out a killer suggests to me that they have exposure.

Post  42947  by  clo       OT: Oh garhart, your gracious spirit is inspiring.

Post  42948  by  jcl22192       Reply
150 Billion!

You couldn't have picked a better short!

Post  42949  by  Nasdaq60       Reply
U.N. inspectors demand Iraq access

which Iraq has said it would reject.


CALVF Risning from oversold conditions - bullish

Current Price of Gold

TIA. Pass It Along>>>>>>>>>>>

(Voluntary Disclosure: Position- Long; ST Rating- Strong Buy; LT Rating- Strong Buy)

Post  42950  by  Nasdaq60       Reply

We have had a number of inquiries regarding the invasion of Iraq and its affect on gold.

When Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990, gold was trading at $345 an ounce.

Prices rose rapidly to $410 by the end of September. Prices swung between $370 and
$410 an ounce until mid-January 1991.

Then, Operation Desert Storm began. It ended at the end of February and during
February the price declined from $390 to $358 an ounce.

That was about a $60.00 swing.

We would guess under normal circumstances we could expect about the same result, but
these are not normal circumstances.

We are 12 years later and the gold manipulation cartel has been rigging gold prices since
1994. Gold prices have been deliberately suppressed, a situation that did not exist in

One mistake by JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citicorp, AIG or any other cartel
member could easily send gold to $512 an ounce.

There could be a number of other events that could also send gold flying.

Thus, we believe a war would send gold prices over $350 an ounce causing a collapse in
the suppression of gold prices, which would bring a price near $500 an ounce.


CALVF Risning from oversold conditions - bullish

Current Price of Gold

TIA. Pass It Along>>>>>>>>>>>

(Voluntary Disclosure: Position- Long; ST Rating- Strong Buy; LT Rating- Strong Buy)

Post  42951  by  oldCADuser       OT: From what we were told by the people in San Di

Post  42952  by  uponroof       Reply answers for Japan

in the face of US economic weakness.

Japan is dependent on exporting hence their competitive currency devaluation policies. As US imports from Japan slow, The Japanese miss another bowel movement as they 'retain' unsold goods. To try something radical during this US 'correction' would be extremely dangerous and might just cause the proverbial TSHTF. So they continue their regieme of 'irregularity' thinking. They are a people of self imposed constipation....despite the raw fish diet.

I'll take my chances with inflation over deflation as will the FED. But then we're big bad 'king of the jungle' Americans and fear nothing (for the moment). Japan will follow US policy protocol as they always have. Their economy is designed to survive off the spillings of American consumption. Will Japan chug ex-lax spiked kool aid as American consumers hunker down?. Your guess is as good as mine. Meanwhile the BIG PANDA moves to capture both markets.


JPM is up while the DOW is down!!!.....

hummmm JPM is around 6% of the 30 component DOW and they're UP, on a lousy day like today? Question: who is buying JPM in this market given the deteriorating implications within Brazil, derivatives, and exposed business loans? Are there any true 'investors' left, or is it a hugely manipulated market headed towards Japan like socialism?

Post  42953  by  uponroof       Reply
Steve Roach on CNBC...
giving the money honey all the bad news fit to report.

"Next 2 years will be worse than Americans expect"

"R.E. bubble popping now"

"Consumer might just bring on a triple dip"

Post  42954  by  tinljhtkh       OT: If their name
Post  42955  by  jeffbas       OT: tin, I agree with you. Even if their name is n
Post  42956  by  tinljhtkh       OT: Jeffbas!
Post  42957  by  pmcw       OT: This sort of attitude is a big part of why lif

Post  42958  by  tinljhtkh       Reply

From my viewpoint, we are in a real economic and financial mess!

The only reason to buy stocks tomorrow is the simple fact that they are for sale! There is no real way to determine what the real value of most of them are because the bottom keeps moving on south on us. I didn't check today's .vix close but it's not been able to get back up to 50 lately. I suppose that there is no fear when you've just given up!

The ARMS index creator said that it was at the most oversold condition since its creation--I think--around 1974!

There just isn't anywhere to start an analysis of this mess so I'm not going to even attempt it--that is just how bad it is! It would be the longest post that I ever did here on RB and I'm just not even going to start!

To quote Joe Kernan on CNBC early this morning: "It's not going to money heaven any more, it's just going to money H e l l !

For those who are looking for that FED rate cut salvation please remember that conventional wisdom--it takes 6 to 9 months for one of those to move through the pipeline and do any good! Dallas Fed's Bob McTeer is warning that we are in danger of moving from disinflation into down right deflation! Rate cuts do no good in a deflationary environment! I didn't check the close on the 2 year note but I think that it's yield may be close to being under the Fed funds rate! How low can it go--1.00 percent or less? Then you have the potential for the bond bubble and a huge bath there to go along with the potential real estate bubble in a rising forclosure rate environment to go along with all of this debt! I do not think that Greenspan can pump enough printed money into the system to overcome all of this mess without running the risk of the deflationary version of a bear market rally--a nice dose of hyperinflation followed by another collapse!

This post is getting so long that I need a drink! I do want to think the West Coast dock workers for helping us out with our balance of payments problem by simply shutting the whole Pacific Rim down! That works!




Post  42959  by  clo       OT:Trials auto accidents: This is the first case w
Post  42960  by  tinljhtkh       OT: Pmcw!

Post  42961  by  pmcw       Reply
)(HLIT) Harmonic Inc. Announces Preliminary Third
Quarter Results that are substantially below estimates. HLIT is clearing the deck of non-cash charges and has made solid progress in several new markets. From listening to the conference call all I can say was the tone of those asking questions was "serious". What might happen in the short term is anyone's guess, but smart money would guess strong downward movement. I'm adusting my planned buying that was scheduled for $1.50'ish downward to $1.20'ish. Absolutely a risky play, but I feel satillite and international (specifically China and South America) will start to come through much more strongly within a quarter or two. The only good news about Q3 appears to be a cash burn that is less than one would expect given the poor top line results.

Business Editors and High Tech Writers

SUNNYVALE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sept. 30, 2002--Harmonic Inc.
(Nasdaq:HLIT) today announced its expected results for the quarter
ended September 27, 2002. These results are preliminary and subject to
change as a result of final management and auditor review and closing
adjustments for the quarter.
For the third quarter of 2002, the Company expects to report net
sales of approximately $37.0 million to $39.0 million. The Company's
lower than anticipated sales primarily reflected a more significant
than expected slowdown in orders from many of its domestic cable
customers, which adversely impacted both Harmonic's Convergent Systems
(CS) and Broadband Access Networks (BAN) divisions.
The CS division, which designs, manufactures and markets digital
headend systems for a number of markets, expects divisional net sales
of approximately $24.0 million to $25.5 million, compared to $32.7
million in the previous quarter. The BAN division, which designs,
manufactures and markets fiber optic products for broadband cable
networks, expects divisional net sales of approximately $13.0 million
to $13.5 million, compared to $23.6 million in the previous quarter.
Domestic sales represented approximately 69% of total sales for the
third quarter of 2002, down from 77% in the previous quarter.
"The capital spending environment is extremely challenging
worldwide," said Anthony J. Ley, Chairman, President and Chief
Executive Officer. "Our cable customers appear to be very cautious in
the near term, and our domestic satellite customers and European
customers continue to face pending business consolidations, financial
restructuring and regulatory issues. We have been weathering the storm
by reducing our costs, introducing new products and strengthening our
technology leadership across a wide range of broadband markets."
"During the third quarter, we announced new cable deployments with
Charter Communications in the US and Telewest in the UK, as well as a
new satellite project in China and a new MMDS wireless project in
Brazil. We also introduced new products for MPEG-2 video-over-IP
applications. Despite the current market uncertainty, we believe that
the long term outlook for broadband communications remains bright."
At the end of the third quarter of 2002, the Company expects to
have cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments of
approximately $53.0 million, compared to $56.9 million at the end of
the previous quarter. The Company expects to report that, during the
third quarter, it incurred severance and other costs of $0.9 million
related to recent workforce reductions. In light of the Company's
reduced headcount, current business conditions, and a weak local real
estate sublease market, Harmonic has also reassessed the adequacy of
its accrual for the costs of excess facilities. As a consequence,
Harmonic expects to report a third quarter charge of $22.0 million for
facilities costs in excess of projected needs. In addition, the
Company expects to report a benefit of $2.0 million to $2.5 million,
resulting from products sold during the quarter which had been
reserved in prior years as excess and obsolete inventories. Excluding
these special charges and credits and the effects of non-cash
accounting charges for the amortization of intangibles, which are
expected to be approximately $3.5 million, the pro forma net loss for
the quarter is expected to be approximately $0.17 to $0.22 per share.
The GAAP loss, including the above charges, is expected to be
approximately $0.57 to $0.62 per share. The Company plans to announce
its complete third quarter results on October 23, 2002.
Harmonic's conference call regarding its preliminary third quarter
2002 results will be held today at 1:30 P.M. Pacific (4:30 P.M.
Eastern). A broadcast of the conference call can be accessed on the
Company's website at or by calling
+1-303-262-2130 (Reservation No. 500441). The replay will be available
at the same website address or by calling 303-590-3000(Reservation No.

About Harmonic Inc.

Harmonic Inc. is a leading provider of digital video, broadband
optical networking and IP delivery systems to cable, satellite,
telecom and broadcast network operators. Harmonic's open
standards-based solutions for the headend through the last mile enable
customers to develop new revenue sources and a competitive advantage
by offering powerful interactive video, voice and data services such
as video-on-demand, high definition digital television, telephony and
Internet access.
Harmonic (Nasdaq: HLIT) is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California
with R&D, sales and system integration centers worldwide. The
Company's customers, including many of the world's largest
communications providers, deliver services in virtually every country.
Visit for more information.

Post  42962  by  clo       OT:Senator Robert G. Torricelli of New Jersey is e

Post  42963  by  Nasdaq60       Reply
Spot GOLD in New York settled higher at 323.80 an ounce, up $3.90 an ounce
from Friday’s close.

Gold advanced Monday morning on fund buying, pulling
silver along in its wake, as weaker global equity markets and a weaker U.S.
dollar boosted safe-haven assets, traders said.
"Price movements will be the
direct effect of news, the movements of the stock market and the value of the
U.S. dollar," Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management said in
a note to clients Monday. Gold prices have the potential to reach $400 an ounce
in the next two years, according to president Todd Hultman.
"We have a credit contraction that could last many years," says John Hathaway,
manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund.
Hathaway sees the overall stock market
as "hardly a starting point for good returns."
The yield on the S&P 500 Index is
less than 2 percent.
The yield spread between the highest-rated corporate bonds
and those several notches down is 1.2 percent, a gap twice as great as a year ago
and a sign of a looming fiscal meltdown, the fund manager says.

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $323.70 an ounce, up from $322.40 an
ounce at the morning fixing.
The gold price strengthened on renewed weakness in
global stock markets and Middle East tensions prompts fresh buying, traders said.
Prospects are for a difficult day ahead for global stock markets.
This combined
with the on-going tension in the Middle East should be supportive for gold and we
could see the yellow metal test the mid $320s again this week," Standard Bank
London said in its website report.
"Gold trade, on balance, has been dominated
by fund-related buying in the market, and that's been driven by the fall in the Dow
and the somewhat weaker dollar," ANZ commodities analyst Peter Hillyard said.
"There's not been a huge amount of buying but it's been fairly sustained throughout
the day," Hillyard said. European stock markets posted one of its biggest one-day
falls on Monday after yet more gloom from the U.S. corporate sector and data
showing weaker-than-expected U.S. manufacturing activity.
"The Street has really
pulled us back this afternoon.
There's a lot of disappointment with consumer
spending and the Wal-Mart story.
Really, it's just confidence, it's really the sell off
from last Friday run into today as well," said Martin Dobson head dealer at
NatWest Stockbrokers.
As stocks tumbled, disappointed investors jumped on
the gold bandwagon, and a flurry of speculative buying on the COMEX floor
pushed gold higher in the afternoon session in London.
"It's US investment houses
and funds buying.
The funds are squaring their end-of-quarter positions on the
back of a weak Dow," a London trader said.

Earlier gold closed at US$322.55 an ounce on Monday in Hong Kong, up $2.10
from Friday's close of US$320.45.
Spot gold prices improved early Monday
morning in Asia, with a plunge in the Dow on Friday and plunging stock markets
in Asia and Europe triggering fund buying of the safe-haven metal, while no major
sellers were seen.
The metal may edge up further, benefiting from investors giving
the cold shoulder to the stocks on bearish corporate outlooks in the United
States, traders said.
Gold rose Monday in Asia in response to lower equities
prices on Wall Street on Friday erasing all the gains from the previous two-day
rally and increased physical demand, traders said. Gold prices moved higher on
some bargain hunting Monday in Asia, particularly when gold opened in Sydney
below US$320 a troy ounce, said a Hong Kong-based trader.
Prices were also
supported by concerns over political tensions in the Middle East and U.S. war
talk against Iraq.
There was also buying interest out of Australia, possibly driven
by funds, traders said.

Reports on the U.S. manufacturing sector and the labor market will be the main
events driving trading next week, and investor sentiment could take a hit if the
numbers confirm Wall Street's worst fear -- that the economic recovery has
Corporate earnings are also weighing on traders' minds with signs of a
pickup in profit growth yet to emerge and the season still high for corporate
confessions, a time when companies tell Wall Street if their results won't measure
up to expectations.
With the economic outlook still cloudy, little hope for
improvement in the corporate profit picture and the threat of a possible U.S.
military conflict with Iraq keeping investors around the globe on edge, the market
is poised for further declines, said Jon Brorson, director of equities at Northern
Trust Co.
"It's sort of like: 'Three strikes, you're out. I'm not buying stocks
today,"' Brorson added.
The barrage of economic reports due next week is likely
to steal the spotlight as investors search for signs that the dreaded "double dip,"
when the economy falls back into recession for a second time in quick succession,
is at bay.
The main event arrives at the end of the week, with the government's
report on the U.S. labor market set for release on Friday.
Payrolls are expected
to show a gain of only 5,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate is
expected to rise to 5.9 percent from 5.7 percent in August, according to
economists in a Reuters survey.

In a report about today’s opening of the three-day Denver Gold Forum, Thom
Calandra reports:
The world's largest gold miners are grappling with issues that
sweep across the financial and human landscape.
Companies that were hedging
their gold production -- by selling some of their ounces forward for short-term
profits - see the writing on the wall, and it's higher gold prices.
Gold hedging, a
practice both embraced and condemned by the mining industry, fell 11.7 million
ounces to 86 million ounces at the end of the second quarter in June, points out
John C. Doody of Gold Stock Analyst.
That amounts to about one year of total
mine production.
If the decline in hedging continues, the global gold market will
have less bullion floating around in swaps, loans and other arrangements that
contribute to supply and weaken the metal's price.
Indeed, the inordinate risk of
selling forward production during this period of extremely low interest rates makes
the “gold carry trade” unpalatable for even the most risk averse gold producers.


The gold price has apparently stabilized over the $320 an ounce mark
for several days now and a floor appears to be built into the price amid several
supporting factors.

Investors are just now beginning to take notice of gold as a
safe haven in increasingly turbulent times.

The most commonly cited reason for the
rising price is the unstable stock market arising from the September 11 terrorist
attacks, as well as the corporate scandals that began with Enron's and Arthur
Andersen’s corporate accounting scandal late last year along with a multitude of
subsequent accounting scandals and numerous cases of corporate malfeasance at
the hands of corrupt corporate executives.

There is a lot of increased interest in gold as the equities markets crumble under a
steady stream of earnings warnings, corporate scandals, corporate debt
downgrades, weaker consumer spending, and lost investor confidence.

It’s like
Chinese water torture with a steady drip, drip, drip of bad news.

Another supporting factor is the threat of war.

The prices of gold has been supported by
the rising inevitability of armed conflict with Iraq and the possibility of a disruption
of the global oil supplies that has sent crude prices skyrocketing and adding an
additional layer of pressure on the already weak global economy.

economies of countries such as Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Japan
have prompted people to search for a wealth preservation vehicle as their
currencies weaken and their banking systems collapse.

In other words, gold is not
dependent on any corporation or government's 'promise to pay'.

Finally, even the financial community is taking on a more positive posture toward gold as
investment and a form of portfolio insurance.

The realization that demand is
outstripping new mine supply, the lack of interesting in lending gold from central
banks, and the unwinding of hedge books by gold producers have yet added one
more layer of strength to the gold market.

Gold has got its biggest boost recently as nervous investors seek a safe haven

On Monday, the September Chicago Purchasing Managers Index slid
to 48.1 percent from August's 54.9 percent and much less than the 53.3 percent
that has been expected by economists.

The index registered its lowest reading
since January. Readings below the 50-percent mark point to a contracting
manufacturing sector.

Also, August personal income and spending numbers came
in below expectations, rising 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively, vs. the 0.5
percent and 0.6 percent growth rate that had been expected.

Today the U.S.
equities markets were buoyed by last minute “window dressing” at the

***However, as more earnings warnings are about to hit the market like a ton of bricks
the stock markets could get hit hard as a growing number of investors are content to
side out the market and some seek out safe havens like gold.***

CALVF Risning from oversold conditions - bullish

Current Price of Gold

TIA. Pass It Along>>>>>>>>>>>

(Voluntary Disclosure: Position- Long; ST Rating- Strong Buy; LT Rating- Strong Buy)

Post  42964  by  jeffbas       Reply

I prefer the idea that parents who give their children everything, except love, values, education, and accountability, can be held responsible for the consequences of facilitating repeated abuse of parent-provided deadly weapons. Of course, I am assuming about the parents in this case, but it seems this was a child who had done this before, yet was out driving another car.

When my daughter got her license 1 1/2 years ago, it was made very plain to her that driving a family car was dangerous, required care and unimpaired faculties, and that any abuse of privileges or expected behavior, in or out of the car, would not be tolerated. It was not a "no dings" or "no accident" rule, which she has had. I would not pay for a car for an independent child, as I believe that a great lesson for a kid is to learn to value something you worked hard to have.

By the way, this accident seems to be a great argument for mandatory "Un/Under-insured Motorist" coverage where in my state you can elect to be covered for up to your own liability limits.

Post  42965  by  jeffbas       Reply
Republicans may not like that. He was beatable in heavily Democratic NJ, but his replacement may not be.

Post  42966  by  jcl22192       Reply
Briguy: has the 30 yr @ 5.75, 0 points. That just adds to the refis. Depending on hedges, that can be good or bad. AXM a MBS bet on interest rate rise awhile back and they have a big nut to absorb. .25bps before Nov. is the bet now.

On Roach: 5% isn't much considering the rise? It's not going to get like Texas during their oil problems-or is it?

Next Bubbles to get deflated that he predicted:


Regarding Property bubble, he said nationwide the average price gain has been 27%, inflation adjusted, over the last 5 years to mid 2002. That's the fastest rise they've been able to track since 1945.

They also track rents versus homeprice and the gap has never been larger.

He characterized property values as a "mania".

His prediction is a 5% haircut in housing prices.

Post  42967  by  clo       OT:jeffbas, first they need to get the court to pu

Post  42968  by  jeffbas       Reply
I repeat what I have said before. If you make the proper apples-to-apples comparison, between rents and monthly payments for houses (not house prices), you might (and I believe WILL) find there is absolutely nothing to talk about.

Post  42969  by  pacemakernj       OT: Clo, good riddance to the Torch. Parting is su

Post  42970  by  pacemakernj       Reply
Linda/Roof, imo the Dow MUST hold 7500. That is big support. A breach of that level will take the Dow back to 6500 and the Naz to 1000. We could get there this month. It would not surprise me. Didn't I warn you about September and October and what happens in the market these two months. Look for gold to continue higher. There is no other way, imo. Did you see the two year note today. At the open it was @ 1.75% exactly at the Fed funds rate all but guaranteeing a 1/4 point rate cut for November if not sooner. Might even come after Friday's jobs data. You know here I am sitting here hoping for bad news so that gold will rise. Geez, that is really sad. So many people are being crushed. This is not good. Pace.

Post  42971  by  tinljhtkh       OT: Jeff!
Post  42972  by  tinljhtkh       OT: Clo!

Post  42973  by  gjwigginto       Reply
? Maniati, I'm not sure there's a perfect unified theory of the whole danged shootin' match, but I think in many regards the Austrians come closest. While certainly not yet(?) dominant, much of their thinking is ascendant, particularly at the top of the information hierarchy. I recall Peter Drucker recently endorsing an Economist article referring to Hayek as "the social philosopher of our time".

I suspect that old Freiderich trumped the conventional ideas about quantitative analysis and scientific method with the phrase "the fatal conceit". Doesn't most of economic "science" consist of laying rulers on graphs of previous trends -- and ignore a priori principles?

Could economics be philosophic rather than scientific?

von Mises laid a lot of groundwork for this view in his turgid opus HUMAN ACTION. Sowell vastly expanded Hayek's observations about the uses of knowledge in society with KNOWLEDGE AND DECISIONS. These works -- and many others -- call into serious question the conventional wisdom. When serious intellects call Austrians "quaint", I wonder if it's from inertia and/or a lack of thorough investigation and analysis.

Next: When I was young most of the small parks and resorts in the Pacific NW were privately owned. That ownership has been usurped. In total, I suspect that has worked to the detriment of the average schmuck. Should some level of government take over the sundry Disneylands? Are any principles different?

Wrt ANWR, OK by me.



Post  42974  by  uponroof       Reply
Hi clo...

The democrats have more than a slight problem.

Federal Law restricts changing candidates after September 16. That's 2+ weeks ago. But never fear. They will challenge that law and persue a specific hardship ruling.

In this process, I expect the democrats to make an issue in the media of what the republicans got away with, in a similar situation, years ago (pick a year). They will claim they are somehow being slighted by big money interests and a legal system under the control of republican appointed judges (someone has to stop this juggernaut).

Of course there won't be a shred of proof in any of this but the public (with the help of the media) will find compassion on these scrappy members of our society, as they always do. Once public opinion is in the bag...the law will follow. Just more evidence of the new democracy overtaking the old republic.

A lot at stake here as this seat might swing Mr Daschle right out of power....The above is only sarcastic speculation but given the enormous gravity don't rule anything out (despite the narrow time window).

This fight is going to be very entertaining. I must admit I would like to see Mr Torecelli stand on his own merits. To change the law now, in order to remove a blemished candidate, would be nothing less than dishonest.

Just what America needs.....a political distraction to take their minds off of retirement funds. I don't think the political partys understand the risk assumed dragging this through center stage during such massive voter wealth elimination.

Post  42975  by  Decomposed       ot: OCU's accident

Post  42976  by  srudek       Reply
maniati: I hope to avoid "religious fervor", as I long ago went through my pure Libertarian phase and don’t expect to return.

Although I am aware that some proponents of Austrian Theory are quite Libertarian (Reisman and Rothbard), are you really being either fair or complete to say that Austrian Theory "believes almost religiously in the private ownership of property" to the extent that Austrian Theory, itself, disallows national parks? Or are you, perhaps, confusing Rothbard and Rothbard's application of A.T. to argue for a politics of "Anarchy" (apparently) with Austrian Theory itself?

Austrian Theory seems to me, so far, to be mainly classical economics (the state of economics up until about 70 years ago) PLUS a theory of the trade cycle. The Theory itself is apolitical and should be eligible to rejoin the family of economic thought, unless it can be logically disproven. It should live or die on its ability to predict – as should “mainstream” economics (which, may I interject, appears to have utterly failed in predicting our current reality and, thus, seems to deserve death) I don't see any indication that A.T. itself has any particular problem with a few public parks.

You say: 'The biggest knock against the Austrian school is that it eschews quantitative analysis, and applies what it considers are "a priori" principles to economic situations. That's what makes it so "quaint." But that is a problem, you know. It's hardly science when it disavows the scientific method, which it does.'

Please explain and substantiate this for me. I'm not aware that A.T. "eschews quantitative analysis", merely, that the foundational pieces of A.T. (what little I’ve seen) are not primarily quantitative. But how does that allow you to say A.T. "disavows the scientific method, which it does"? Much of "Science" -- probably most of science -- is not built upon quantitative models nor amenable to quantitative analysis (except, perhaps, statistical analysis). Physics is fundamentally built on mathematical models, yes, but most of biology is not. If A.T. has a problem qualifying as “scientific” based on this criteria, then so does biology, molecular biology, organic chemistry, archeology, etc. “The rigor of a science is its ability to predict.” (I don’t know who first said this, but it’s one of my favorite quotes) A.T. clearly predicts our current reality while the rest of economics – mathematical models and all – apparently has completely failed. Mathematical models which don't work aren't preferable to non-mathematical models at all.

“I am but an egg” with regard to economics of any sort. If you can help educate me with regard to economics – including any weaknesses or fallacies of A.T. – I will sincerely appreciate your help. The book I’m reading right now is The Austrian Theory of the Trade Cycle; it’s only introductory. Have you read it or can you get a copy and read it? It’s about $7 at Amazon. If you can recommend other "intro" books on economics which are applicable to understanding current reality (note I am not interested in a college textbook -- I took Econ 101 ages ago and, although it was interesting, as I recall it had relatively limited practical or predictive value in the real world.)

Post  42977  by  oldCADuser       OT: Yep, that's the accident all right.

Post  42978  by  maniati       Reply
gjw: The Austrians come closest to what? How? And how do you know that? What exactly does that mean?

I don't have a problem with a lot of the ideas that have been attributed to the Austrian school. I am not the one who called it "quaint" - I just explained what it is that others are thinking when they use that term.

I feel perfectly capable of sifting through the landscape of economic ideas, and deciding for myself which make sense and which do not. That doesn't mean I'm right, but I don't arbitrarily narrow my field of view just because there are things I don't want to look at. I've read Hayek and Samuelson and learned quite a bit from both. I really cannot justify deciding to ignore vast bodies of work, solely on the basis that "I don't believe in quantitative analysis." That just strikes me as silly and narrow-minded. Why would someone deliberately do that? There is nothing evil about applying scientific method, or attempting to gather data to prove or disprove a theory.

That's not to say that quantitative analysis is the Holy Grail of economics, but that was never my position, either. In fact, my prediction about the economy and discussion of "investment acceleration" over a year ago was essentially based on "a priori" reasoning, if you will; I didn't go do a quantitative study. But, on the other hand, I drew upon an idea that was developed by someone who did take the time to gather the data to prove his thesis - many years ago.

So, I see myself as willing to accept ideas that make sense to me, regardless of the "school." What I don't understand is the religious fervor associated with a particular school. That strikes me as naive. There was a time when the world was religious about Keynes. Then it was religious about monetarism. What a waste of time. I don't call that critical thinking.

I suppose most scholars have their fiefdoms to protect. I remember, years ago, when the economists and the systems dynamicists at MIT didn't talk to each other. I don't know if that's changed, but what a joke. Fortunately for me, I'm just a poor schmuck who is unencumbered by department heads, evaluation committees, or the need to carve out some particular niche that I can put my name on. That gives me the freedom to sort through any and all ideas and to decide for myself what makes sense. Why on earth would I not want to take advantage of that? It's a glorious thing.

Post  42979  by  maldinero       OT: OldCAD…Slide Rules of the Road

Post  42980  by  maniati       Reply
srudek: I responded to gjw before I read your post. Well, I don't know that I have the time to answer all your questions right now. For one thing, I have read a number of articles on the Austrian school - some in print and some on the net - and I'm just not up to sorting through all that right now to provide the cites that you requested. I'm not trying to dodge the question, but I'll have to get back to you after I've had a chance to put something together.

But I do agree with you that any theory should stand or fall on its ability to predict. I agree completely. In addition, if A.T. is not "eligible to rejoin the family of economic thought," it's not because of people like me. I'm willing to listen to any theory and consider it. In fact, while I have not read the book you mentioned, I will get it and read it. How's that?

I don't see economic schools of thought as monolithic. Economists are all over the map. So, I don't see how anyone can say that mainstream economics is terrible, while some particular school is correct. There are mainstream economists who predicted the current economic situation. And you are going to find that there are people who identify themselves with A.T. who have differing views (from each other), just as there are Keynesians with differing views. I just don't see why there has to be this "us vs. them" mentality. That seems counter-productive.

Well, I'll get back to you when I have a little more time. And I will try to take a look at that book; that way we will have a common reference point.

Post  42981  by  jcl22192       Reply
The issue is probably geographic. In the NE and the DC area (VA,MD included)and some parts of CA, Roach is correct.