List Table Action

Table On-Topic Summary - 03-Oct-2002

A compilation of this board's financial/economic posts From 43104 to 43156
Post 43104 by Decomposed OT: Table ON TOPIC SUMMARY Oct 02, 2002
Post 43105 by Briguy Reply

Tax loss selling? Not to belabor the point, but Trim-Tabs reported that equity stock funds experienced net redemptions of $7.3 billion last week! YIKES! The selling just keeps going and going and going on! In July, we had $52.6 billion of net withdrawals from stock funds In August it was something like $45.4 billion In September? Numbers are not in yet, but I imagine it will be over $50 billion. Unfortunately, inspite of yesterday's rise- which btw was not because of program buying but was the result of short covering- I believe October is going to get really really ugly. Hold on tight boys and girls, because DOW 6000 and Nasdaq 700 could still happen. If investors keep pulling $5-7 BILLION dollars out of equity funds every week, we are in big trouble.
Post 43106 by srudek OT De: Thx again for OT Summary. It is SO much mo
Post 43107 by srudek Reply

Briguy: re redemptions. This has probably been discussed, but the mutual funds tend to bring out the worst in the market. They are forced to buy stocks high, because that's when the money really comes in, and sell stocks low, because that's when the money wants out. So they are, in a way, a demonstration of Soro's principle of "reflexivity" which states that in social fields such as markets, and unlike hard sciences, reality changes perception and perception changes reality in an unstable feedback cycle. This is what the mathematics behind "derivatives" insurance fails to take in to account and the reason we may yet see a derivatives panic. You are too much of an optimist. Dow 5000 is closer to the likely goal for this market, and -- due to reflexivity -- even that will likely not be the bottom.
Post 43108 by clo OT: Oh those Supreme's... they keep us on our toes
Post 43109 by clo Reply

When do you know you are having a bad day? Oh my! This soul needs all of our prayers. Can you imagine? clo NEW YORK, Oct 2 (Reuters) - A slip of the finger led Bear Stearns Cos. Inc. on Wednesday to erroneously enter an order to sell $4 billion worth of stocks, fueling an already tumbling market. The order about 20 minutes before the closing bell was the result of a "clerical error" and should have been entered as $4 million, the New York Stock Exchange said in a statement. All but $622 million of the orders were canceled before execution, it said. Bear Stearns told Reuters the error will have no material impact on the company and declined to comment further. After a seesaw session, stocks sank in trading Wednesday. The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index fell about 3 points between 3:40 p.m. and 3:46 p.m. EDT to below 827. The index closed at 827.91, down 20 points on the day. "When a large brokerage house like Bear Stearns sells a large quantity of anything, people assume Bear Stearns knows something and it will move the price," said Daniel Weaver, associate professor of finance at the Zicklin School of Business at New York's Baruch College. "It was a bear sign from Bear Stearns." The NYSE said the sell orders were for $4 billion worth of "S&P securities," in reference to stocks that are part of Standard & Poor's indices. It could not be reached for further clarification as to which stocks may have been affected. "It's not very common," said Richard Repetto, an analyst with Putnam Lovell NBF, of seeing this type of error on the New York Stock Exchange. "This is a human error; it's not an electronic error." A source familiar with the situation said the erroneous order was the fault of a clerk not a trader. Weaver said he expects Bear Stearns to try to unwind, or cancel, the trades that were executed. "But you have to have the other person willing to do it," he said. "It depends on their relationship with the other brokers. Since it happens to everybody, some of them are going to be willing to do it to the extent that they can." This past June, shares of Nasdaq share dealer Knight Trading Group dropped more than 50 percent in before-the-bell trading after a software glitch triggered an accidental wave of selling in its own shares. In May 2001, U.K. stocks tumbled shortly before the close after a Lehman Brothers dealer miskeyed a large sell order. Errors like the one witnessed Wednesday tend to occur when clerks type in the wrong ticker symbol or the wrong price for a stock, Weaver said. "I bet you everyone now tweaks their systems to make sure that they catch orders that are extraordinarily large," he said. ((--Nicole Maestri, Wall Street Desk, 646 223-6173)) REUTERS * end of story *
Post 43110 by poplartree1 Reply

That is a great letter...I like it! With regard to what the stock market is doing, the 401k and other tax-incentivized savings plans brought the common person into the stock market. Around 1999, it was almost embarassing to hear store clerks and uneducated laborers talking about the specifics of tech stocks such as PMCS or JDS....hard for an educated person to figure out what those companies do. What you see is a backlash...it is the common person having been burned doing what they can to dis-entangle their savings from the stock market. So, don't be surprised to see a slow....oooohhhhhh so slow unwinding of the stock market. As for Saddam..... It seems America just has to have an enemy. Prior to our "War on Terrorism" we were fighting a civil war against about a third of our population...they called this the "War on Drugs". In fact, our government is trying hard to link the two together now. Anyone seen the commercials that suggest marijuana use is connected to terrorism?? SHHHHHHH....all the marijuana is now grown inside under HID lights in American closets....do a Google search. Sometimes I think the entire problem is the quest for "earnings growth". I submit that in the long run, earnings growth is ALWAYS the result of 1) population increases OR 2) taking of earnings from another economic entity. This quest for growth instead of sustainability has resulted in a somewhat warped culture, IMHO. Americans tend to live to work, eat, and breed. The rest of the world tends to work, eat, and breed to live. I vaguely remember a quote from a long dead famous person...something like this....... "We must be warriors so our sons may be merchants so their sons may be poets." Maybe we need more poets.
Post 43111 by weevil Reply

pmcw..thanks...eom
Post 43112 by Decomposed ot: OT summary comments - from srudek,
Post 43113 by srudek Reply

de: more Seville on gold trend A short quote from Seville latest update: In addition to looking at what the commercials are doing, it is important to also look at what the small traders are doing. For example, assume the gold price is trending higher and the commercials are heavily net-short. If this net-short position was mostly offset by the net-long position of large speculators, while the small traders were essentially 'flat' (neither short nor long), we wouldn't consider the COT data to be signaling an impending peak. This is because the commercials and the large speculators are both 'smart money'. In this case the COT data would be inconclusive. However, if the large net-short position of the commercials was mostly offset by the net-long position of small traders (the 'dumb money'), we would consider the COT data to be very bearish. This is, by the way, the current situation in the gold market.
Post 43114 by oldCADuser OT: I heard this morning...
Post 43115 by srudek Reply

Japan 'Hard-landing' advocate may join debt team http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1031119847750&p=1012571727192 By David Pilling in Tokyo Published: October 2 2002 20:01 \| Last Updated: October 2 2002 22:44 Japan's best-known advocate of a "hard-landing" solution to the banking crisis is likely to be named this week to the taskforce charged with drawing up proposals to tackle the financial system's mountain of bad debts. Takeshi Kimura, the influential head of KPMG Consulting who has advocated the rapid closure of about 30 companies he believes account for the bulk of bad loans, was almost certain to be appointed, a senior government official said Wednesday night. The taskforce, to be convened by Heizo Takenaka, the economy minister who this week was made head of the Financial Services Agency, will prepare a report for the prime minister's office within the next few weeks. Market rumours that Mr Kimura, a former official at the Bank of Japan, would be appointed sent the stock market down 1.2 per cent to a 19-year low of 9,049.33. Shareholders fear that, if Mr Kimura's ideas were accepted, more companies would go bankrupt.
Post 43116 by kduff OT: Now here is an inventive way to take care of d
Post 43117 by YAMONIRIE OT: It appears that there is no end to the corruti
Post 43118 by oldCADuser OT: As an update, here is the last news item (from
Post 43119 by srudek Reply

Gross/Pimco-BondGods eye 12 month fuse to a "non-refinancible" mortgage & chasm. http://www.pimco.com/leftnav_generic_frm.asp?page=/ca/bonds_commentary_investment_outlook_1002.htm And so? Well, here's what those same astute observers whisper, but are afraid to believe will happen. If the American refinancing boom ends before a new investment boom begins, we are in a world of hurt. Consumption withers, investment rejuvenation will not have begun, and the U.S. global economic locomotive, such as it is, will grind to a halt. How long do we have? Twelve months at the most, even if Greenspan drives rates toward zero. . . . Central banks, primarily our Fed, are moving in the anticipated direction but there appears to be little conventional ammunition left in their holster. Sure we can count on higher deficits, sure we can count on Europe amending its Stability Pact, and maybe we can count on the Japanese to finally do something. But for sure we can count on China to deflate, deflate and deflate some more. We are enmeshed in a deflationary/reflationary tug of war as described in the May Secular Outlook, but the winner and the timing is not as obvious as it appeared to be back then. In turn, the current level of U.S. Treasury interest rates - while at low historical extremes - will not appear to be so ridiculous or reminiscent of recent equity bubbles if deflation prevails in the face of the soon to be "non-refinancable" refinancable fixed rate mortgage. Standby. This George Bushian battle between good and evil, with the deflationary Devil cast as the economic world's primary villain, and renewed pricing power as it's hoped for Angel of Mercy, is now seemingly up for grabs. The markets hear the knockin', and many say that this particular Devil won't come in, but they, like PIMCO, are a lot less sure of that than they were six months ago.
Post 43120 by oldCADuser OT: If nothing else this certainly gives us all a
Post 43121 by pacemakernj OT: Clo, I guess in the weird world of the UN and
Post 43122 by jeffbas OT: "more poets"
Post 43123 by jbennett53 Reply

Briguy, What you are talking about sounds very similar to Japan over the last 12 years and 1930's America. Given such a potential scenario and increased production this year I cannot see gold staying above 300 much longer. Good Luck.
Post 43124 by tinljhtkh OT: I use
Post 43125 by maniati OT: yamonirie: Stay tuned! I have a little somethi
Post 43126 by jbennett53 Reply

OT, YAMONIRIE, Between the equity markets and if any fiasco occurs in Iraq I have a feeling that we may see the most DEM lopsided Congress ever in a little over 2 years. You might want to invest in a large supply of B Bags. Good Luck.
Post 43127 by nacl01 OT: Palaces
Post 43128 by YAMONIRIE OT: JB53--I can not disagree with what you said. M
Post 43129 by spirare Reply

Update: Gold Super Cycle to $1,257 Gold http://www.kitco.com/ind/Schmidt/oct012002.html Caledonia Risning from oversold conditions - Bullish^^^^*^ http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/081702/maund081702.html#caledoniamining Current price of Gold http://www.caledoniamining.com (Voluntary Disclosure: Position- Long; ST Rating- Strong Buy; LT Rating- Strong Buy)
Post 43130 by maniati OT: "I can see the value that is in so much o
Post 43131 by danking_70 OT: So much for the Zionist Lobby Canard
Post 43132 by Decomposed OT: "The existence of the future has to do wi
Post 43133 by StockmanI7 OT: Danking, that would be the "Jewish"
Post 43134 by Warstud Reply

New 52-Week Lows : Investors feeling the pain across a number of sectors today as their holdings slip to new 52-week lows. Groups with multiple representatives on the New Low List include Semi/Semi Equip: AMD -28%, CY -13%, FCS -4.5%, MCRL -32%, LSI -6%; and Software: VRTS -16%, BOBJ -7.4%, SNPS -4.6%, NTIQ -3.7%, NET -3%.
Post 43135 by Decomposed ot: Table Competition
Post 43136 by Decomposed ot: REPOST, to fix a curious bug at the end of my
Post 43137 by tinljhtkh OT: I knew that
Post 43138 by Decomposed ot: VSE
Post 43139 by Decomposed ot: VSE
Post 43140 by clo OT: Decomposed, competition question:
Post 43141 by pmcw Reply

Decomp, Thanks for opening up the window a bit. Would you mind changing the closing date to the end of January since 1/10/2003 is before most companies report Q4? Regards, pmcw
Post 43142 by danking_70 OT: Stockman re: McKinney
Post 43143 by Decomposed OT: VSE, clo,
Post 43144 by Decomposed ot: VSE contest, pmcw
Post 43145 by rvajr Reply

Can you believe that Bill C. might live in the white house again, GOD Forbide!!!!
Post 43146 by PhiltLstnr OT: Billary....
Post 43147 by tinljhtkh Reply

I'm in! Regards, Tin
Post 43148 by srudek ot De, re VSE - what are the rules about letting o
Post 43149 by pacemakernj OT: Srudek, great post. I just posted the other da
Post 43150 by pacemakernj OT: Tin, more greed...
Post 43151 by pmcw OT: Decomp / VSE Question:
Post 43152 by jbennett53 Reply

pace, http://politicalhumor.about.com/library/images/blbushbozo.htm
Post 43153 by clo Reply

TOKYO, Oct 03, 2002 (AP Online via COMTEX) -- Tokyo stocks opened lower Friday amid continuing concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy and worries about the negative short-term impact an aggressive clean up of banks' bad loans may have on the domestic economy. The dollar was down against the yen. The benchmark 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average opened down 36.66 points, or 0.41 percent, Friday morning to 8,899.22. The Nikkei fell 112.90 points, or 1.25 percent, to end at 8,936.43 Thursday. The level was the lowest finish for the Nikkei since August 1983. The dollar bought 122.33 yen on the Tokyo foreign exchange market at 9 a.m. Friday, down 0.51 yen from 122.84 yen in Tokyo Thursday and down from 122.65 yen late Thursday in New York. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 37.80, or 0.5 percent, to close at 7,717.81 Thursday as investors were flustered by mixed economic reports and more earnings warnings. The broader Tokyo Stock Price Index opened down 3.74 points, or 0.42 percent, to 879.85 Friday morning. The TOPIX dropped 9.64 points, or 1.08 percent, to 883.59 on Thursday. The euro traded at 120.82 yen Friday morning, down from 121.42 yen late Thursday in Tokyo. Against the dollar, the euro was quoted at 98.68 cents, down from 98.84 cents. The yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond rose to 1.1500 Friday morning from 1.1350 late Thursday. Its price fell 0.13 to 100.44. ---
Post 43154 by Decomposed ot: VSE, srudek,
Post 43155 by pmcw ot: VSE Decomp,
Post 43156 by tinljhtkh OT: pacemakernj!