Table On-Topic Summary - 03-Oct-2002
A compilation of this board's financial/economic posts From 43104 to 43156

Post  43104  by  Decomposed       OT: Table ON TOPIC SUMMARY Oct 02, 2002

Post  43105  by  Briguy       Reply
Tax loss selling?

Not to belabor the point, but Trim-Tabs reported that equity stock funds experienced net redemptions of $7.3 billion last week! YIKES!

The selling just keeps going and going and going on!

In July, we had $52.6 billion of net withdrawals from stock funds

In August it was something like $45.4 billion

In September? Numbers are not in yet, but I imagine it will be over $50 billion.

Unfortunately, inspite of yesterday's rise- which btw was not because of program buying but was the result of short covering- I believe October is going to get really really ugly. Hold on tight boys and girls, because DOW 6000 and Nasdaq 700 could still happen. If investors keep pulling $5-7 BILLION dollars out of equity funds every week, we are in big trouble.

Post  43106  by  srudek       OT De: Thx again for OT Summary. It is SO much mo

Post  43107  by  srudek       Reply
Briguy: re redemptions. This has probably been discussed, but the mutual funds tend to bring out the worst in the market. They are forced to buy stocks high, because that's when the money really comes in, and sell stocks low, because that's when the money wants out. So they are, in a way, a demonstration of Soro's principle of "reflexivity" which states that in social fields such as markets, and unlike hard sciences, reality changes perception and perception changes reality in an unstable feedback cycle. This is what the mathematics behind "derivatives" insurance fails to take in to account and the reason we may yet see a derivatives panic.

You are too much of an optimist. Dow 5000 is closer to the likely goal for this market, and -- due to reflexivity -- even that will likely not be the bottom.

Post  43108  by  clo       OT: Oh those Supreme's... they keep us on our toes

Post  43109  by  clo       Reply
When do you know you are having a bad day?
Oh my! This soul needs all of our prayers. Can you imagine?

NEW YORK, Oct 2 (Reuters) - A slip of the finger led Bear
Stearns Cos. Inc. on Wednesday to erroneously enter an
order to sell $4 billion worth of stocks, fueling an already
tumbling market.
The order about 20 minutes before the closing bell was the
result of a "clerical error" and should have been entered as $4
million, the New York Stock Exchange said in a statement. All
but $622 million of the orders were canceled before execution,
it said.
Bear Stearns told Reuters the error will have no material
impact on the company and declined to comment further.
After a seesaw session, stocks sank in trading Wednesday.
The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index fell about 3 points
between 3:40 p.m. and 3:46 p.m. EDT to below 827. The index
closed at 827.91, down 20 points on the day.
"When a large brokerage house like Bear Stearns sells a
large quantity of anything, people assume Bear Stearns knows
something and it will move the price," said Daniel Weaver,
associate professor of finance at the Zicklin School of
Business at New York's Baruch College. "It was a bear sign from
Bear Stearns."
The NYSE said the sell orders were for $4 billion worth of
"S&P securities," in reference to stocks that are part of
Standard & Poor's indices. It could not be reached for further
clarification as to which stocks may have been affected.
"It's not very common," said Richard Repetto, an analyst
with Putnam Lovell NBF, of seeing this type of error on the New
York Stock Exchange. "This is a human error; it's not an
electronic error."
A source familiar with the situation said the erroneous
order was the fault of a clerk not a trader.
Weaver said he expects Bear Stearns to try to unwind, or
cancel, the trades that were executed.
"But you have to have the other person willing to do it,"
he said. "It depends on their relationship with the other
brokers. Since it happens to everybody, some of them are going
to be willing to do it to the extent that they can."
This past June, shares of Nasdaq share dealer Knight
Trading Group dropped more than 50 percent in before-the-bell
trading after a software glitch triggered an accidental wave of
selling in its own shares.
In May 2001, U.K. stocks tumbled shortly before the close
after a Lehman Brothers dealer miskeyed a large sell order.
Errors like the one witnessed Wednesday tend to occur when
clerks type in the wrong ticker symbol or the wrong price for a
stock, Weaver said.
"I bet you everyone now tweaks their systems to make sure
that they catch orders that are extraordinarily large," he
((--Nicole Maestri, Wall Street Desk, 646 223-6173))

*** end of story ***

Post  43110  by  poplartree1       Reply
That is a great letter...I like it!

With regard to what the stock market is doing, the 401k and other tax-incentivized savings plans brought the common person into the stock market. Around 1999, it was almost embarassing to hear store clerks and uneducated laborers talking about the specifics of tech stocks such as PMCS or JDS....hard for an educated person to figure out what those companies do. What you see is a is the common person having been burned doing what they can to dis-entangle their savings from the stock market. So, don't be surprised to see a slow....oooohhhhhh so slow unwinding of the stock market.

As for Saddam..... It seems America just has to have an enemy. Prior to our "War on Terrorism" we were fighting a civil war against about a third of our population...they called this the "War on Drugs". In fact, our government is trying hard to link the two together now. Anyone seen the commercials that suggest marijuana use is connected to terrorism?? SHHHHHHH....all the marijuana is now grown inside under HID lights in American a Google search.

Sometimes I think the entire problem is the quest for "earnings growth". I submit that in the long run, earnings growth is ALWAYS the result of 1) population increases OR 2) taking of earnings from another economic entity.

This quest for growth instead of sustainability has resulted in a somewhat warped culture, IMHO. Americans tend to live to work, eat, and breed. The rest of the world tends to work, eat, and breed to live.

I vaguely remember a quote from a long dead famous person...something like this.......

"We must be warriors so our sons may be merchants so their sons may be poets." Maybe we need more poets.

Post  43111  by  weevil       Reply

Post  43112  by  Decomposed       ot: OT summary comments - from srudek,

Post  43113  by  srudek       Reply
de: more Seville on gold trend

A short quote from Seville latest update:
In addition to looking at what the commercials are doing, it is important to also look at what the small traders are doing. For example, assume the gold price is trending higher and the commercials are heavily net-short. If this net-short position was mostly offset by the net-long position of large speculators, while the small traders were essentially 'flat' (neither short nor long), we wouldn't consider the COT data to be signaling an impending peak. This is because the commercials and the large speculators are both 'smart money'. In this case the COT data would be inconclusive. However, if the large net-short position of the commercials was mostly offset by the net-long position of small traders (the 'dumb money'), we would consider the COT data to be very bearish. This is, by the way, the current situation in the gold market.

Post  43114  by  oldCADuser       OT: I heard this morning...

Post  43115  by  srudek       Reply
Japan 'Hard-landing' advocate may join debt team
By David Pilling in Tokyo
Published: October 2 2002 20:01 | Last Updated: October 2 2002 22:44

Japan's best-known advocate of a "hard-landing" solution to the banking crisis is likely to be named this week to the taskforce charged with drawing up proposals to tackle the financial system's mountain of bad debts.

Takeshi Kimura, the influential head of KPMG Consulting who has advocated the rapid closure of about 30 companies he believes account for the bulk of bad loans, was almost certain to be appointed, a senior government official said Wednesday night. The taskforce, to be convened by Heizo Takenaka, the economy minister who this week was made head of the Financial Services Agency, will prepare a report for the prime minister's office within the next few weeks.

Market rumours that Mr Kimura, a former official at the Bank of Japan, would be appointed sent the stock market down 1.2 per cent to a 19-year low of 9,049.33. Shareholders fear that, if Mr Kimura's ideas were accepted, more companies would go bankrupt.

Post  43116  by  kduff       OT: Now here is an inventive way to take care of d
Post  43117  by  YAMONIRIE       OT: It appears that there is no end to the corruti
Post  43118  by  oldCADuser       OT: As an update, here is the last news item (from

Post  43119  by  srudek       Reply
Gross/Pimco-BondGods eye 12 month fuse to a "non-refinancible" mortgage & chasm.

And so? Well, here's what those same astute observers whisper, but are afraid to believe will happen. If the American refinancing boom ends before a new investment boom begins, we are in a world of hurt. Consumption withers, investment rejuvenation will not have begun, and the U.S. global economic locomotive, such as it is, will grind to a halt. How long do we have? Twelve months at the most, even if Greenspan drives rates toward zero.
. . .
Central banks, primarily our Fed, are moving in the anticipated direction but there appears to be little conventional ammunition left in their holster. Sure we can count on higher deficits, sure we can count on Europe amending its Stability Pact, and maybe we can count on the Japanese to finally do something. But for sure we can count on China to deflate, deflate and deflate some more. We are enmeshed in a deflationary/reflationary tug of war as described in the May Secular Outlook, but the winner and the timing is not as obvious as it appeared to be back then. In turn, the current level of U.S. Treasury interest rates - while at low historical extremes - will not appear to be so ridiculous or reminiscent of recent equity bubbles if deflation prevails in the face of the soon to be "non-refinancable" refinancable fixed rate mortgage. Standby. This George Bushian battle between good and evil, with the deflationary Devil cast as the economic world's primary villain, and renewed pricing power as it's hoped for Angel of Mercy, is now seemingly up for grabs. The markets hear the knockin', and many say that this particular Devil won't come in, but they, like PIMCO, are a lot less sure of that than they were six months ago.

Post  43120  by  oldCADuser       OT: If nothing else this certainly gives us all a
Post  43121  by  pacemakernj       OT: Clo, I guess in the weird world of the UN and
Post  43122  by  jeffbas       OT: "more poets"

Post  43123  by  jbennett53       Reply
Briguy, What you are talking about sounds very similar to Japan over the last 12 years and 1930's America. Given such a potential scenario and increased production this year I cannot see gold staying above 300 much longer. Good Luck.

Post  43124  by  tinljhtkh       OT: I use
Post  43125  by  maniati       OT: yamonirie: Stay tuned! I have a little somethi

Post  43126  by  jbennett53       Reply
OT, YAMONIRIE, Between the equity markets and if any fiasco occurs in Iraq I have a feeling that we may see the most DEM lopsided Congress ever in a little over 2 years. You might want to invest in a large supply of B Bags. Good Luck.

Post  43127  by  nacl01       OT: Palaces
Post  43128  by  YAMONIRIE       OT: JB53--I can not disagree with what you said. M

Post  43129  by  spirare       Reply
Update: Gold Super Cycle to $1,257 Gold

Caledonia Risning from oversold conditions - Bullish*^*^*^*^*^

Current price of Gold

(Voluntary Disclosure: Position- Long; ST Rating- Strong Buy; LT Rating- Strong Buy)

Post  43130  by  maniati       OT: "I can see the value that is in so much o
Post  43131  by  danking_70       OT: So much for the Zionist Lobby Canard
Post  43132  by  Decomposed       OT: "The existence of the future has to do wi
Post  43133  by  StockmanI7       OT: Danking, that would be the "Jewish"

Post  43134  by  Warstud       Reply
New 52-Week Lows : Investors feeling the pain across a number of sectors today as their holdings slip to new 52-week lows. Groups with multiple representatives on the New Low List include Semi/Semi Equip: AMD -28%, CY -13%, FCS -4.5%, MCRL -32%, LSI -6%; and Software: VRTS -16%, BOBJ -7.4%, SNPS -4.6%, NTIQ -3.7%, NET -3%.

Post  43135  by  Decomposed       ot: Table Competition
Post  43136  by  Decomposed       ot: REPOST, to fix a curious bug at the end of my
Post  43137  by  tinljhtkh       OT: I knew that
Post  43138  by  Decomposed       ot: VSE
Post  43139  by  Decomposed       ot: VSE
Post  43140  by  clo       OT: Decomposed, competition question:

Post  43141  by  pmcw       Reply
Decomp, Thanks for opening up the window a bit. Would you mind changing the closing date to the end of January since 1/10/2003 is before most companies report Q4? Regards, pmcw

Post  43142  by  danking_70       OT: Stockman re: McKinney
Post  43143  by  Decomposed       OT: VSE, clo,
Post  43144  by  Decomposed       ot: VSE contest, pmcw

Post  43145  by  rvajr       Reply
Can you believe that Bill C. might live in the white house again, GOD Forbide!!!!

Post  43146  by  PhiltLstnr       OT: Billary....

Post  43147  by  tinljhtkh       Reply
I'm in!



Post  43148  by  srudek       ot De, re VSE - what are the rules about letting o
Post  43149  by  pacemakernj       OT: Srudek, great post. I just posted the other da
Post  43150  by  pacemakernj       OT: Tin, more greed...
Post  43151  by  pmcw       OT: Decomp / VSE Question:

Post  43152  by  jbennett53       Reply

Post  43153  by  clo       Reply
TOKYO, Oct 03, 2002 (AP Online via COMTEX) -- Tokyo stocks opened lower Friday
amid continuing concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy and worries
about the negative short-term impact an aggressive clean up of banks' bad loans
may have on the domestic economy. The dollar was down against the yen.

The benchmark 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average opened down 36.66 points, or 0.41
percent, Friday morning to 8,899.22. The Nikkei fell 112.90 points, or 1.25
percent, to end at 8,936.43 Thursday. The level was the lowest finish for the
Nikkei since August 1983.

The dollar bought 122.33 yen on the Tokyo foreign exchange market at 9 a.m.
Friday, down 0.51 yen from 122.84 yen in Tokyo Thursday and down from 122.65 yen
late Thursday in New York.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 37.80, or 0.5 percent, to close at
7,717.81 Thursday as investors were flustered by mixed economic reports and more
earnings warnings.

The broader Tokyo Stock Price Index opened down 3.74 points, or 0.42 percent, to
879.85 Friday morning. The TOPIX dropped 9.64 points, or 1.08 percent, to 883.59
on Thursday.

The euro traded at 120.82 yen Friday morning, down from 121.42 yen late Thursday
in Tokyo. Against the dollar, the euro was quoted at 98.68 cents, down from
98.84 cents.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond rose to 1.1500 Friday morning
from 1.1350 late Thursday. Its price fell 0.13 to 100.44.


Post  43154  by  Decomposed       ot: VSE, srudek,
Post  43155  by  pmcw       ot: VSE Decomp,
Post  43156  by  tinljhtkh       OT: pacemakernj!