Table On-Topic Summary - 15-Oct-2002
A compilation of this board's financial/economic posts From 43618 to 43687



Post  43618  by  lkorrow       Reply
srudek, Didn't we declared war on terrorism, world-wide a little over a year ago with the blessing of Congress?

Post  43619  by  Decomposed       ot: Sniper


Post  43621  by  optimistic4dollars       Reply
stardance:

I think that the Dow will rally short term to around the 8000 level, and then start tanking in mid-november when the economic reports and the lacklustre holiday season sales come in. I think that manufacturers will offer post christmas discounts pre-christmas, just like in 2001. I feel that the target is 7000, which is when I would cover...

Luck in your trading!


Post  43622  by  Decomposed       ot: Sniper
Post  43623  by  optimistic4dollars       OT: Help needed in understanding options on future
Post  43624  by  srudek       ot lk: We need Billy Graham for blessings; Congres
Post  43625  by  oldCADuser       OT: I don't have too much time to spend on this at
Post  43626  by  clo       OT: oldCAD, your insights will be very interesting


Post  43627  by  lkorrow       Reply
Decomposed, On tv the other day, they were interviewing someone who said this is extremely unusual because he started off in a spree and changed styles to a sniper. That seems to lend credence to the organization theory. Maybe he/they slows down and regroups on weekends to reassess efforts to catch him because he doesn't want to be caought.



Post  43628  by  lkorrow       Reply
OCU, In the last couple of days, there's been a lot of speculation on tv that he could be alive. Seems unlikely, but who knows. No proof either way. Maybe they are using his name to try and rally more support for terrorism. Yesterday GWB said he thinks Bali was al quaeda, no mention of sadam. I don't see how Iraq could be a diversion with them importing nuclear bomb parts and avoiding inspection. Avoiding inspection on over 12 sq. miles of "palaces" tells the story, imho.




Post  43629  by  lkorrow       Reply
Dow futures up 170!!!



Post  43630  by  lkorrow       Reply
Pace, bottom line on China. I think you're right, they're a threat. Maybe not yet, but the danger is there. Although I would welcome a deflationary drop in the price of sneakers! :-)

Post  43631  by  maniati       OT: OCU: What that goes to prove is that it's toug
Post  43632  by  pdowd       OT: I think that the ACLU ought to start a charter


Post  43633  by  StockRyder       Reply
Best Buy prospects

This is just another reason why I cannot understand Best Buy's current price. From the Consumer Electronics Association...

http://www.ce.org/press_room/press_release_detail.asp?id=10049

More Than 75 Percent of U.S. Households Likely to Buy Consumer Electronics this Holiday Season

More than three-quarters (78 percent) of all U.S. households are likely to purchase at least one consumer electronics (CE) product as a gift during the upcoming holiday shopping season, according to the results of the "9th Annual Holiday Purchase Patterns" survey released today by the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA). Retailers should expect booming sales of DVD players and digital cameras, as well as significantly increased levels of gift giving interest in home theater and home stereo, big screen TVs, and camcorders. On an unaided basis, U.S. adult consumers named 13 consumer electronics products among the 30 top items they would like to receive as gifts this year.
"The incredible variety of new consumer electronics product offerings in recent years has given shoppers more gift choices than ever," said Gary Shapiro, president and CEO of CEA. "Much of that growth has been fueled by the digital revolution, and it is apparent that consumers recognize the benefits of digital products. The added convenience, speed, portability and cost-efficiency of digital products has led to positions of priority on holiday shopping lists this season."

DVD Tops CE Gift Giving List for Second Year in a Row

DVD players, the fastest selling consumer electronics product in history, topped the list of CE gift items for the second consecutive year. Overall interest in purchasing DVD players rose 19 percent from last year.

The survey also found that digital cameras will be hot this holiday season. Nearly one-quarter of all U.S. households are at least contemplating a digital camera purchase, up 14 percent from last year. Third place on the list were personal portable tape and CD products. Following the boom in video game system sales from last year's holiday season, video game peripherals top the computer wish list in 2002, as well as taking top ranking among items consumers plan to purchase for children.

Uncertainty in the Economy Not Dampening Enthusiasm for Holiday Purchases

Despite a number of uncertainties facing the U.S. economy, a growing number of consumers feel economic conditions are the same or better than those they faced last year. In terms of the dollars consumers are allocating for gifts, 68 percent will likely spend the same amount or more this year, down slightly from 74 percent in 2001 and 71 percent in 2000.

"In line with consumers' plans to spend less this holiday shopping season, falling prices are allowing buyers to stretch their funds," said Sean Wargo, director of industry analysis for CEA.

Good news, considering most consumers have plenty of gifts to buy. On average, the typical U.S. household buys gifts for as many as 14 other friends/co-workers/relatives.

Holiday Online Shopping May be Boon to Sagging Computer Industry

While DVD players were the king of the holiday hill for the second consecutive year, a number of computer-related categories showed big increases in consumer interest. Sales of desktop computers, in particular, should get a holiday boost. Consumer interest in purchasing a PC as a holiday gift rose 27 percent over last year, and the computer ranked as the number two item for those likely to make an online purchase. In addition, consumers aren't forgetting the computers they already have with PC upgrades and accessory items ranking number one among likely online shoppers. In total, one in five U.S. households expect to purchase a PC upgrade (RAM, hard drive, CD burner, etc.) as a holiday gift. Overall, one-third of all U.S. households expect to make an online gift purchase this holiday season.

For a list of available reports and purchasing information, visit www.eBrain.org or send an e-mail request to info@eBrain.org.

About CEA:


The Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) represents more than 1,000 corporate members involved in the design, development, manufacturing, distribution and integration of audio, video, mobile electronics, wireless and landline communications, information technology, home networking, multimedia and accessory products, as well as related services that are sold through consumer channels. Combined, CEA's members account for more than $80 billion in annual sales. CEA's resources are available online at www.CE.org, the definitive source for information about the consumer electronics industry.

CEA also sponsors and manages the International CES - Defining Technology's Future. All profits from CES are reinvested into industry services, including technical training and education, industry promotion, engineering standards development, market research and legislative advocacy.





Post  43634  by  Warstud       Reply
S&P says energy sector has hit credit crisis : The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. electric power industry is experiencing its worst credit crunch since the Great Depression and it is only likely to get worse, as billions of dollars of debt will need to be refinanced in coming months, according to a report by S&P.


Post  43635  by  danking_70       OT: Srudek


Post  43636  by  jeffbas       Reply
OCU, I think common sense suggests than bin Laden is long since dead - and that the reason the government does not say so is to help maintain support for the "War on Terrorism" generally, including Iraq. Every media release containing some supposed communication from bin Laden that includes no video image and no contemporaneous evidence increases the odds in my mind that he is dead - since nothing of consequence is required to create a tape of him against a plain (non-disclosing) background.

Post  43637  by  danking_70       OT: Clo re: meat recall
Post  43638  by  maniati       OT: I suppose the stick figure theory could still
Post  43639  by  danking_70       OT: 2 'Hispanics' sought in D.C.-area hunt Be-on-
Post  43640  by  danking_70       OT: The Truth Inside: A plea from Tehran.
Post  43641  by  tinljhtkh       OT: danking_70!
Post  43642  by  lkorrow       OT: a car was shot on the Long Island Expressway,
Post  43643  by  danking_70       OT: Tin, you're missing the point.


Post  43644  by  maniati       Reply
O4D: I don't have the historical data you are asking for, but I must point out, for your own sake, a major fallacy in your reasoning. You cannot simply assume the kind of linear relationship that you suggest between options and the underlying index. Don't do any trading until you understand options pricing better. (Sorry if this comes across as patronizing, or whatever - I'm not trying to be, but I don't want to see you throwing your money out the window.)

Two things give an option its value: 1) time, and 2) intrinsic value. Intrinsic value is the amount by which the underlying price (of the stock or index) exceeds the strike price (exercise price) of the option. So, if you have a 1150 call option, and the index is at 1200, then your option has 50 of intrinsic value. But, in addition, there is the time element. Since it is possible that the index could go up even further before the option expires, the value of the option will be somewhat greater than its intrinsic value. That time value of the option is affected by the volatility of the underlying stock or index. When the price of the underlying instrument is less than the exercise price of the option, then the option has no intrinsic value, and has only time value.

In both your call and put examples, the options were "in the money," meaning that they actually had intrinsic value. And, as it turned out in those examples, the options had enough intrinsic value to give whatever % return on the investment that it was that you computed.

But look again. In those scenarios, most of the value was intrinsic value; only a small portion of the value was the time value. For example, in the scenario where the call option increases to 52.50, that is because it has 50 of intrinsic value. So, the time value is 2.50. If, the following day, the index drops from 1200 to 1190, then the option loses $10 of intrinsic value. So, that would drop the value of the option to $42.50 just on the change in intrinsic value. In addition, time works against you; since you now have one less day until the maturity of the option, the time value will decrease a little - all other things being equal. On the other hand, big swings in the index can increase volatility, which will make the time component of the value grow, but that effect will be very small compared to the 20% drop in intrinsic value. When an option is in-the-money, the intrinsic value of the option changes dollar-for-dollar with the price of the underlying stock/index. But the time value works, and is priced, quite differently.

Don't waste your time looking for historical linear relationships between option prices and indices. Instead, you need to understand intrinsic value and time value. There are options pricing formulas that estimate the future price of an option based on: 1) the exercise price, 2) the price of the underlying instrument, 3) the volatility of the underlying instrument, 4) the time to maturity, and 5) the interest rate. The "Black-Scholes" formula is the best known. The CBOE site has an options calculator, and that site also explains how options work. There are others as well.

Don't go trading options until you really understand how they work.

Even then, it's a very risky business. Options are riskier than the underlying instruments.

Some people use options to reduce risk, but that requires holding multiple positions, typically in both an option and the underlying instrument.

But, you seem to be talking about pure speculation. That is a good way to lose your money.


Post  43645  by  jeffbas       OT: lkorrow, I am not convinced they are "nut
Post  43646  by  Decomposed       ot: sniper
Post  43647  by  maniati       OT: jeff: Yeah, actually, that's the point that mo
Post  43648  by  jeffbas       OT: "Anyone ready to take their heads out of
Post  43649  by  danking_70       OT: Please be true: "Sniper police 'close t


Post  43650  by  clo       Reply
For those of us that have watched our stocks decline thinking they will rebound, consider this chart!
A friend sent it to me last night. I've done a print out to keep near my computer.

Oh and maniati, anyone foolish to be out playing in the sand should be prepared...
Under the bed yet again! ;( clo

% Loss ofCapital % of GainRequired toRecoup Loss
10% 11.11%
20% 25.00%
30% 42.85%
40% 66.66%
50% 100%
60% 150%
70% 233%
80% 400%
90% 900%
100% broke
Table 1. Notice that as losses (draw down) increase, the percent gain necessary to recover to breakeven increases at a geometric rate






Post  43651  by  pmcw       Reply
pace, Here's an example of how INTC is leveraging their strengths. It doesn't include the RF section yet, but IMO, it is just round one of what is to come.

Intel Unveils Mobile Handset Chips
Tue Oct 15, 1:44 PM ET
James Maguire & Jay Wrolstad, www.NewsFactor.com

Intel (Nasdaq: INTC - news) has unveiled two multichip packages intended to boost communications capabilities of cell phones. The products combine a processor with a flash memory chip, creating a chipset that Intel claims uses less power and takes up less space than previous offerings.



AMD Unveils Faster Mobile Chip
Micron Demos Next-Gen Memory Technology
Flash Memory: Evolution or Revolution



Known as the PXA261 and the PXA262, the new products are the first to use what Intel refers to as Multiple Chip Product packaging technology. In other words, the chipsets stack an Intel XScale processor with either a 128 MB (PXA261) or 256 MB (PXA262) flash memory chip.

Intel claims this chip combination, slated to ship in the first quarter of 2003, will enable next-generation capabilities in cell phones, including quick response to performance-intensive applications like MPEG-4 video, speech and handwriting recognition, and Java interpretation.

Maximum Power, Minimum Size

For cell phone users, the new products will mean longer battery life, less wait time for data access and higher throughput of data, Steve Curial, product marketing engineer at Intel, told NewsFactor. "The idea is to maximize computing power and storage while minimizing the size of the processor for wireless devices," he said.

David Rogers, marketing manager for Intel's PC computing group, said Intel Flash technology currently is used in some 50 to 60 percent of all cell phones, but the Strata Flash product was not previously available for handsets because it did not meet manufacturer specifications.

"We got the specs from the manufacturers and designed this product for them," he explained. "It will work in virtually all wireless existing or new handheld devices."

TI Dominates

Yankee Group analyst John Jackson confirmed that Intel's new products are "extremely good for feature-rich cell phones." He noted that the stacked architecture provides an exceptional amount of memory while saving significant space in a handset.

Intel is the market leader in the PC chip market, as well as in the flash memory sector, where it held one-fourth of the global market in 2001. But with its recent move into cell phone chipsets, the chipmaker has entered an industry dominated by Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN - news), which has a more than 50 percent market share.

Boisterous Battle

"TI dominates in the cellular baseband. In the RF piece, Motorola (NYSE: MOT - news) is a strong player," Jackson said. With Intel's entrance into the market, "there's a very loud and boisterous battle for real estate on the [cell phone] motherboard."

Texas Instruments has announced plans to ship a multichip package next year that will stack its latest cell phone processor with a flash memory chip.

Jackson said the market losers in this skirmish will be battery vendors, because the chipmakers are taking aggressive steps to manage power consumption.

Next-Gen Cell Phones

By 2006, 10 percent of cell phones sold will have advanced data functions, according to research firm IDC. If a company wishes to gain market advantage in that advanced handset market, it must develop a single-chip processor for communications.

TI has said it expects to make a single-chip processor for mobile phones by 2004. Intel has yet to announce its own single-chip offering. It has, however, reported success in fabricating logic, analog and memory into a single chip, suggesting it is on track to launch such a product.

Intel also has unveiled a new version of its StrataFlash Wireless Memory, which the company said doubles the amount of data a memory cell can hold, in addition to requiring 40 percent less power.

Regards, pmcw


Post  43652  by  maniati       OT: Decomp: You're absolutely right, and I can't m
Post  43653  by  maniati       OT: jeff: ROFL!! (eom)
Post  43654  by  tinljhtkh       OT: Dan!


Post  43655  by  jeffbas       Reply
pmcw, it would appear that integrated flash might impinge on companies like ATML. Of course, using less power is desirable. However, with respect to less space, I am not sure there is a market for even smaller cell phones - as they already seem to be at practical limits on keyboard size.

How vulnerable is something like Xicor's voltage reference strategy to something like this (combining functions on one chip)?


Post  43656  by  danking_70       OT: Tin re: recalls
Post  43657  by  danking_70       OT: Joe Bob's America: My Talk Show


Post  43658  by  pmcw       Reply
jeff, Size is always an issue in that phones will move to larger LCD's and want more memory (functions). However, power and cost/performance are the real issues. Yep, it will put pressure on ATML as will all the other FLASH players that have money to move to the next generation in processing.

The XICO niche is safe - so much so that I feel they are going to be viewed as a serious acquisition target during the next year. My opinion holds that it will take over $350M to buy the company.

What XICO is doing is more analogous to what ALTR and XLNX have done to logic. They will offer solutions to replace analog building blocks with integrated programmable solutions.

ALTR and to a slightly lesser extent, XLNX are moving on to the next step of successfully incorporating hard wired macros. ALTR's new FPGA's can incorporate a multi-channel DSP with actually does some things better than even high powered DSP's. They are both taking solid steps towards taking out the low end gate array market. As I said long ago right here, the programmable guys will encroach on the ASIC and SOC market more than those markets will take from them. And, all programmable companies (XICO included) will continue to take out discrete function chips.

Regards, pmcw




Post  43659  by  uponroof       Reply
clo...thanks for the reminder
Most folks don't understand the simple math behind recouping loss as per your chart.

The other common mistake is believing no damage is done until you sell out of your position. "I'm in it for the long haul" covers a multitude of investment sins under this 'strategy' as it is used liberally to minimize damage incurred. Compare this thinking to owning a new Mercedes...which is totally destroyed in an accident...you don't incurr the monetary damage until you sell the car, but the damage is very real.




I have to hand it to Barton Biggs, he called this rally only days before it hit....he also believes it to be temporary with a more serious counter move coming before years end.

What we are seeing in this latest suckers rally is, IMHO, an election day dress up. 'Lipstick on the pig' for the benefit of those pulling voting levers in a few weeks. While I don't think the rally will carry through early November, the point has been made to those forever and eternally more, happy to...."be in it for the long haul"

Good Luck

Cheers



Post  43660  by  Inspector_32       OT: Bush has new strategy on the economy:


Post  43661  by  pmcw       Reply
Has Gephardt seen the light or is his focus November 5th. Unless you believe the latter, you probably own at least one bridge.

Gephardt announced today he would introduce legislation designed to stimulate the economy that includes $75 billion in tax rebates. Hmmm, maybe they might even bring back HR267 (the house version of S88). I wonder what Terrible Tom will have to say about this.

Regards, pmcw


Post  43662  by  danking_70       OT: More News: "Sniper Attack Yields Detaile
Post  43663  by  tinljhtkh       OT: Dan!


Post  43664  by  optimistic4dollars       Reply
Maniati:

I understand your reasoning. I have been doing ok on options in the past 4 months. Not losing money but gaining a little. The reason I am frustrated of trading normal options is that
1) the spreads are very wide
2) Very hard to get out of certain stocks.
3) I suspect that the spreads are widened when some retail customer accumulates a lone and large commision, and when i liquidate my position, they go back to narrowing the spreads.

I am assuming that a lot of people must be trading the index options and spreads would be narrower... With quick movements get more returns... Anyway I would play only spreads/straddles so that one leg would return more and theoretically be in profit for the overall trade. I haven't looked at strategies but I will.

Thanks for your input. I will start cautiously. Right now I risk only 15% on each trade. On indexes i will reduce it to 2%.


Post  43665  by  optimistic4dollars       OT: That last message should be OT, sorry! Eom
Post  43666  by  oldCADuser       OT: Again, another reason why many of us are so gl
Post  43667  by  pacemakernj       OT: Linda, RE: China, your sneakers cost pennies t
Post  43668  by  srudek       ot danking: congress&war-
Post  43669  by  pacemakernj       OT: Srudek, if I may interject a thought here. GW
Post  43670  by  oldCADuser       OT: I arrived here on Monday, after the Bali attac
Post  43671  by  pacemakernj       OT: Dan, great post. IMHO, that post is what Iraq


Post  43672  by  lkorrow       Reply
Jeff, I understand what you're saying and low tech's a good point. Those terrorists are brainwashed fanatics in a cult. Their actions are anti-ISLAM and they apparently don't even know it or care. I haven't heard anything else on the LI incident, which could very well be unrelated.

CNN aired another theory. They said "I Am God" is a Doom game thing and al queda doesn't use tarot cards. So he suspects there are two young men out there pushing each other to kill. Cowards. But where would they get trucks and two at that, It seems like people would know them if they were local. And how could they get away. Maybe they need to close down every road within a time radius and search everywhere within it, not just the major highways.




Post  43673  by  pacemakernj       Reply
PMCW, thanks for the Intel update. In the span of seven hours I went from feeling great to feeling lousy. INTC is down over $2 in after hours trading. But I did write the Oct 15 calls nonetheless just in case something like this would happen. But I was simply looking for a quick trade from what I thought was an oversold condition. I still think if you want to hold Intel for 5 years it's at least a triple from these levels. But I think your ISIL has better long term upside prospects. Regards, Pace.



Post  43674  by  oldCADuser       Reply
Awhile ago I posted a message about a "rumor" that I had heard here at EDS that they were going to partner with Dell to standardize desktop and Window based server technology, both in-house and as part of their work with large customers. Well the "rumor" is now official. See the item below:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/021015/datu026_1.html

I don't know if any of you ever did anything based on my post from several months ago, but I thought that I at least owed all of you some follow-up now that it was officially no longer a "rumor".

OCU


Post  43675  by  pacemakernj       OT: PMCW, I herd that on the radio and burst out i
Post  43676  by  clo       OT: What a difference choices make!


Post  43677  by  lkorrow       Reply
Decomposed, given your story, the whole thing is even more confusing.

Post  43678  by  lkorrow       OT: Pace, goes to show you they or someone already
Post  43679  by  lkorrow       OT: Tips on what to do to protect oneself at gas s
Post  43680  by  clo       OT: House Passes Background Check Bill
Post  43681  by  lkorrow       OT: Clo, they aired a spot on one of our most adva
Post  43682  by  clo       OT: Linda, that is amazing!
Post  43683  by  lkorrow       OT: Ark, are you still here???


Post  43684  by  lkorrow       Reply
Clo, I thought so too. I never had kids, but I believe I would have done the same as you. Looking back in light of the current state of the world and considering my current life learnings, I would have like to have gone into the Navy, then gone into intelligence if I was good enough at some point.

Post  43685  by  maniati       OT: OCU: Ok, you made your point. That's 2 posts n
Post  43686  by  lkorrow       OT: Well, found the saluting protocol, although at


Post  43687  by  kantbleveit       Reply
ikorrow
imo, all PEOPLE should pray for the leaders of all the countries fighting for FREEDOM to have wisdom and courage.

kantbleveit