Table On-Topic Summary - 17-Oct-2002
A compilation of this board's financial/economic posts From 43744 to 43788

Post  43744  by  Decomposed       OT: Table ON TOPIC SUMMARY Oct 16, 2002
Post  43745  by  srudek       ot danking: re "taking back power"

Post  43746  by  Arkural       Reply

No. Truth of and in life, as it affects planet earth and its inhabitants will give no quarter in times ahead. Whether in lies, deeds or actions or in the planet reverberating as a reactionary force to (an infantile) collective thought form completely and increasingly out of balance with its essence. When 'no quarter' is given, in short, one example is, it means without mercy. There are great or significant shifts ahead. Living in major cities will prove to intensify the tension of a high wire act........upon this wire, each individual will seek a balance to their being. Stauts quo, whatever it is, will be challenged. These (very polluted) environments are not safe and are not healthy. Health, in ALL ways is affected. However the validity of this is deadened to those encapsulated within it. Truth, as law, is a wide topic, too wide to be expressed here for my taste, but that I will hint to it to stimulate anyone who has an interest there I feel is enough.....yet, I will say the Truth I speak about is not found in books, the annals of this can be found in life, via efforts thru the self.

The world taking a course entitled disaster, like the mkt, things are going down, though perks may arise (a little bull may arise too), there will not be an all clear of any lasting duration for many yrs. A true, magnanimous miracle is now needed, in fact has been needed for yrs. A miracle of this sort requires people across the board to sacrifice, to give up greed, hate, lying, destruction and turn their focus towards, love, compassion, creativity and inner truth. Unless a collective consciousness can take place, more Destruction and Suffering is apt to occur.

There are no spiritual leaders leading the world, the price to pay, is the bent toward material solutions that at best are short-sided and the momentum involved there is quite massive and strong. Material concerns, material viewpoints, material deductions, etc, etc, nothing for the spirit, therefore, the suffering will be in kind.
Life IS NOT a material escapade, even though religions might have one believe so. . . . . . . . . . .Life is the ultimate game of illusion/delusion . . . . . . . . .things are NOT what they might seem.

I can say this much. From where I sit, this business about nuclear this and that is VERY REAL. No cardboard in this very involved goings-on behind the media-fed screen most are digesting. There are two powers vying (locked) for world domination in the dawn of a new century, today's homework assignment is to determine which two these are.

Post  43747  by  Arkural       Reply
maldinero-Ibm, thx for the info. eom

Post  43748  by  srudek       Reply
Russell:bull 74-99, bear 99-08

What I've noticed is that even the day traders who are experienced and comfortable selling short are having a difficult, frustrating time with this market. That's because it's taking SO LONG in its decent that techniques which should work well -- such as buying puts which are no where near expiry -- are expiring before the market grinds down. That has to do with the extraordinary length of this bear, which Richard says is related to the extraordinary length of the preceding bull which begot it. Now Russell feels the bull actually began way back in 74; so the bear should last 1/3 to 1/2 as long: until 2008 or maybe 2012!

My own internal sense of this market is that it is no where near bottom; I'm not speculating on time. I'll be fascinated to discover how accurate my sense actually is. I feel my sense of real estate markets is very good and I have considerable trust in my timing regarding them after having been though a number of cycles. I only became interested in stock markets in late '99, though, so I don't know how well my experience will translate. What I'm mainly looking for are a "feeling" of profound capitulation and a return of financial sense to stock pricing (dividends of 6%+ in solid companies). So far, neither "metric" is anywhere near close to what I'd expect, so I'm utterly convinced the bear must go on.

Anyway, here's Richard Russell! -srudek


Anyway, that's the way I see the picture. This is a bear market that's early in its second psychological phase. For new subscribers I should repeat that the second phase of a bear market is the longest phase. It's the phase where stocks go down as they discount deterioration in corporate earnings, and often deterioration in the social and political fabric of the nation.

The second phase of a bear market is followed by the third and final phase. This is the phase where stocks are "thrown over" for whatever they will bring. Stocks in the third phase are dumped because people need the money The third phase is the phase where people who have "saved for a rainy day" wake up to find that it's raining. The third phase sees the final collapse of blue chip stocks. The blue chips are dumped in the third phase because they are the only stocks that are still liquid, the only stocks that can be sold in quantity, the only stocks that still enjoy a market. . .

Post  43749  by  clo       Reply
IBM trading @ 72 on Instinet.
Merrill Lynch said on Thursday it had upgraded computer maker International
Business Machines Corp. (IBM) to "buy" with a price
target of $82.

NOK has better than expected numbers.

Let the rally ..resume! ;)) clo

Post  43750  by  danking_70       OT: Srudek: "taking back power"

Post  43751  by  maniati       Reply
pmcw: re INTC: You know, you're right about that. I must have had them confused with someone else. :-) Other than the last 2 quarters, you have to go back to 1999 to find another "miss," at which point I think you find 3. The deal with INTC has been their constant earnings warnings, which has been their m.o. since the economy headed south. That's why they don't technically miss, because they guide down before hand. Like clockwork, usually. :-) Either way, with the exception of the post 9/11 period (during which time I wasn't buying anyway, for reasons I have explained previously), there's no point during which I would have wanted to hold INTC since the bear started. I don't like it as a trading stock, because it generally moves in only one direction. :-) And I'm still not ready to buy&hold it yet.

I'm quite happy I haven't touched the stock in this downturn. The only play that would have made it worthwhile for me would have been a post 9/11 buy, but, as I've said before, I wasn't buying then because I fully expected another attack in the immediate future. Other than that, there's only so much shorting I want to do. :-)

Post  43752  by  lkorrow       OT: Thanks Ark. That's a difficult assignment for
Post  43753  by  maniati       OT: OCU: Thank you very much for the response. I a

Post  43754  by  lkorrow       Reply
Pace, ROof, can't believe gold is freaking out so badly lately. eom.

Post  43755  by  pmcw       Reply
wee, Re: Telecom suppliers

There are some real interesting things unfolding right now. It appears that the FCC will do away with UNE-P regulations (you can do a google search for details on UNE-P) and that there will be mergers between the Bells and T/WCOME in the coming year - probably at least one of the events before the end of Q1. This will change the landscape and spending priorities.

If I'm right, the metro network will be the primary focus. It might surprise you, but CSCO is actually as strong as anyone in this space. NT is second and LU is third. However, the second area of spending will be maintenance and this will benefit LU.

The short answer is a qualified yes. One can buy a large number of LU or NT shares for very little money. Due to the high level of skepticism in both as an ongoing interest, I've been able to place a small amount of money in both at very low prices. I've also been buying a bit of CSCO below $10.

I seriously doubt both LU and NT will go away and I also feel the government might step into a LU failure. I feel holding shares in all three is probably the safest move that still offers ample potential for the spread risk. The fourth wild card in the play might be Alcatel, but I've never really dug deep enough in them to know exactly where they fit. Regards, pmcw

Post  43756  by  danking_70       OT: Report: Terror Funds Flow Through Saudi Arabi

Post  43757  by  jeffbas       Reply
srudek, the nearly 60% that IBM has dropped and 45% that MRK has dropped are already more than in the 1973-74 bear market. Maybe he has been napping while this happened, or is looking for a Phase Four where blue chips are REALLY dumped?

Post  43758  by  lkorrow       Reply
pmcw, that is quite a development on UNE-P (loosely, wholesale rates). In doing a Google search, I came across an interesting summary from The Yankee Group:

AT&T was just saying they captured 2M local customers. Not too long ago, they were saying the drops in wholesale rates are why the re-entered some local markets. If the FCC lets the LECs loose, maybe T will exit and have nothing to offset the loss of LD customers. Or will they somehow get something out of this on the LD side, like an ability to raise their rates for carrying LD from the LECs?

I was wondering about the mergers. There was a lot of talk on that in the last couple of years, but with the debt picture, no takers. I remember hearing the FCC was pushing someone, anyone to aquire WCOM with no takers. Probably quite a bit of (maybe bailout) manuvering behind the scenes. Interesting developments, indeed!!

Post  43759  by  lkorrow       Reply
A fascinating look at applications for 3G wireless in cars. One can almost imagine when prices come down and it's a product for mass consumption . . .

Car talk
Chana R. Schoenberger, 10.28.02

Is there money in wireless broadband for cars? Automakers, telecom carriers and hardy innovators are intent on finding out.

Cars can be prosaic, so Volvo has taken to selling computers. At the Ford Motor unit's headquarters, near Göteborg, Sweden, engineers are tweaking their new On Call system

Post  43760  by  pacemakernj       Reply
Linda, RE: Gold, I am not surprised by the action in the gold market. I was concerned about it a few days ago. It now appears that the stock market has bottomed at 7200 and 1120. In the short term money could be moving out of gold into equities. Out of bonds as well. We are now moving into a seasonal strong period for equities. Btw, I have noticed a short term pick up in activity. I can't tell if it's just a small spike or something more permanent. We could be in an important shift in investor sentiment where we go back to a "buy the dips" climate. Pace.

Post  43761  by  srudek       ot danking: answers to questions

Post  43762  by  lkorrow       Reply
Pace, it seems like everyone wants to call this last one a bottom. The optimism exceeds the fundamentals, but if we get some more decent earnings reports, all else could be ignored short term. It's like everyone is just fed up and wants the good times to roll, I know I do. Maybe there will be something salvaged from the ashes so the market can produce a good year. Three in a row would not be good form or at all fashionable.

Post  43763  by  lkorrow       OT: does anyone know if there's a site with al que

Post  43764  by  pmcw       Reply
lk, The reason I'm saying WCOME and T will likely be purchased is that they will soon be "de-levereged" and therefore attractive.

T is not unique in their success in local service. WCOME has recently added roughly 1M local customers with their all inclusive (LD plus local) plan. FON is certainly a dark horse, but few realize that they have nearly 10M local lines as a foundation.

Regards, pmcw

Post  43765  by  lkorrow       Reply
pmcw, I see what you mean. T will be losing a lot of debt with the broadband spinoff and WCOM will with their restructuring. I follow T more closely because I worked more closely with them. Sprint has 10M, wow. If I remember right, Sprint's local business was more facilities-based, i. e., their own, than resale. If so, they'll be in nice shape if they repeal.

Speaking of wow, look at the market and IBM!

Pace, it doesn't look like people are selling the rallies anymore either . . .

Post  43766  by  clo       Reply
lkorrow, just you wait! MSFT has given the market a reason to continue this rally... ;)) Enjoy, clo

Post  43767  by  lkorrow       Reply
Clo, My goodness, it's after 4 already. I had the tv OFF! Up over $2 so far in after hours, should be quite a day tomorrow (or should I be supersticious, which I'm not, and say maybe I shouldn't say that outloud :-) ). I wonder if MSFT profits are from ripping off customers on their new upgrade policy. But it sure is great to see some good earnings coming through. Now if we get past the pension fund issues, we'll be closer to home free. Regards, Linda

Dow 10,000!

Post  43768  by  danking_70       OT: Srudek, have you ever...
Post  43769  by  lkorrow       OT: Here we go again.

Post  43770  by  clo       Reply
Housing starts surge 13.3 percent

WASHINGTON, Oct 17, 2002 (United Press International via COMTEX) -- The
Commerce Department said Thursday that U.S. housing starts surged to their
highest level in 16 years during September, fuelled by record-low mortgage

The government agency said housing starts climbed 13.3 percent during the month
to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.843 million units from a 1.627 million
pace in August.

Economists on Wall Street were expecting housing starts to rise 1.9 percent
during the month.

Analysts noted that housing activity is been fuelled by favorable mortgage
rates. Builders say lower borrowing costs are providing a cushion against the
slowdown in the economy.

Housing accounts for more than half of all U.S. construction and boosts the
economy by stimulating spending on building materials, home appliances and home

Freddie Mac last week said mortgage rates fell to their lowest level in 31 years
and expects the current record-breaking low mortgage rates to stimulate demand
for homes well into next year.

Freddie Mac said the 30-year loan fell to its lowest level since it began its
survey back in April of 1971 and the 15-year loan dropped to its lowest level
since August of 1991.

Freddie Mac, which adjusts mortgage rates according to prices that
mortgage-backed securities bring in the secondary bond market, said the average
rate on the popular 30-year loan to homebuyers fell to 5.98 percent from 6.01
percent a week earlier.

The government agency also reported building-permit authorization, an indicator
of future construction, rose 3.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of
1.727 million units from 1.666 million units in August.

Economists on Wall Street were expected permits to rise 2.5 percent.

The latest report from the Commerce Department showed that single-family home
construction, which accounts for more than two-thirds of all residential
construction, jumped 18.2 percent in September to a 1.477 million unit rate
after falling 4.4 percent in August.

Starts of multi-family homes, including apartments and townhouses, fell 2.9
percent to a 366,000 annual rate after rising 6.3 percent a month earlier.

The report showed by region, starts rose 9.8 percent in the South, jumped 11.4
percent in the Midwest, climbed 24.2 percent in the West and rose 9.5 percent in
the Northeast section of the country.

Copyright 2002 by United Press International.


SUBJECT CODE: 04004000 04008004

*** end of story ***

Post  43771  by  pacemakernj       Reply
Linda, I agree with that. But just a note of caution. Go back and check how many times Japan rallied 20% when they kept saying it was the bottom of the bear market. It would not surprise me that the markets rally from here to the end of the year and show only modest losses on the major indicies. Just an aside Congress past the defense budget. That could be another reason why this market is moving. The government is putting in place a ton of stimulus starting right now which will imo catapault this market higher as well. I think part of GW's tax cut kick's in next year as well. So I think I am making a case as to why we will have a good run here. The market is a forward looking indicator at it could like what it sees down the road. If so stocks will be bidded up in anticipation of that. Call me cautiously optimistic. Pace.

Post  43772  by  weevil       Reply

Post  43773  by  lkorrow       Reply
Pace, between what you're saying and Clo's housing start post, it does look good. Cautiously optimistic's a good way to put how I feel too. Lots of issues, but it looks like we're slowly working through them.

Ark, maybe there's another possibility on Korea. I can't figure why they would announce that. Maybe they want us to go in and help their country. They're mostly starving, although that's somewhat dated info.

Post  43774  by  oldCADuser       OT: Hey, you don't have to wait for the ACLU...
Post  43775  by  oldCADuser       OT: Well, this should relieve some of the paranoia
Post  43776  by  lkorrow       OT: OCU

Post  43777  by  srudek       Reply
jeff: re IBM/Merk-

It's probably a mistake for me to attempt to speak for Russell regarding your doubts, but note the bolded word "final" in his statement:

The third phase sees the final collapse of blue chip stocks. The blue chips are dumped in the third phase because they are the only stocks that are still liquid, the only stocks that can be sold in quantity, the only stocks that still enjoy a market

Post  43778  by  clo       OT: oldCAD, Bob Barr was on the Nachman show on MS

Post  43779  by  lkorrow       Reply
More on the evil one.

Saddam's Economy of War

Saddam is still the artillery buff he always was. German prosecutors produced evidence last week against two businessmen for shipping milling machines to Iraq that would enable the regime to make guns of a "caliber capable of carrying weapons of mass destruction."

The news brings to mind Gerald Bull, the Canadian artillery designer who was assassinated mysteriously in 1990 while building Saddam a supergun capable of lofting projectiles into orbit. It's amazing how little has changed despite the resounding defeat of Saddam's army 11 years ago. Thus the question at the heart of the U.S. policy debate: Does his continued pursuit of such weapons, in violation of the 1991 Gulf War cease-fire, mean he intends to launch another war?

There is no doubt that Saddam, with his oil billions, has single-handedly called into being a world-wide industry devoted to brokering illegal weapons technologies. It begins with Syria, which agreed to reopen a long-dormant pipeline and channel $3 billion a year in illegal Iraqi oil exports whose proceeds the regime can use for any purpose it wants, free of U.N. constraints. As to suppliers, the German case was discovered by accident -- a routine inspection -- so the suspicion has to be that more Western business people, knowingly or not, are aiding in Saddam's rearmament.

Debate over his links to al Qaeda is less conclusive, but attention ought to be paid to a taped message from Ayman al Zawahri, Osama bin Laden's master strategist, ordering terrorist attacks in anticipation of U.S. moves against Iraq. But even were there no evidence of a connection, only a fool would stop looking for one. The Islamic and Arab radical underground may be strange to us but it is not strange to Saddam's intelligence services. If there were reason to cooperate, opportunity would be found.

His ambitions in the past have been expansionary -- witness his invasions of Iran and Kuwait. His penchant for miscalculation is huge -- look at the outcomes of Kuwaiti and Iranian aggressions. And then we have his apparent faith in "decisive" weapons that can deliver victory despite Iraq's general weakness. His investment in bioweapons is especially significant: Many of these are slow-acting and suited not for battlefield use but for sowing terror in civilian populations. Records found in Iraq attest to 3,117 gallons of botulinum toxin, 2,265 gallons of anthrax, 1,400 gallons of gangrene and 500 gallons of Brucella, not to mention unknown quantities of smallpox, aflatoxin and nerve gases.

Saddam's whole official life has been devoted to the pursuit of exotic weapons of every kind. This must mean something.

What's more, there are reasons at least to evaluate the possibility that something did change after Sept. 11: that the risk posed by Saddam actually increased. He saw what we have been keen not to dwell on: The Sept. 11 plot was largely a failure but contained the seeds of a much more devastating blow against the U.S., had the hijackers succeeded in decapitating the political system by taking out the White House and Congress.

The value of Dick Cheney's August speech was that it ventured an unvarnished answer to the puzzle of why Iraq would be willing to forgo an end to U.N. sanctions, which would have put billions of dollars in the regime's pockets, in order to accumulate unconventional munitions: "These are not weapons for the purpose of defending Iraq; these are offensive weapons for the purpose of inflicting death on a massive scale, developed so that Saddam can hold the threat over the head of anyone he chooses, in his own region or beyond."

Too much is made of the ideological difference between Muslim radicals and the Iraqi regime. Both are engaged in a pursuit of political power and aren't squeamish about allies. It is profoundly a mistake to imagine that terrorism is a cry of indignation against U.S policies around the world and will go away if we change our policies. Saturday's bombing in Indonesia may have been helped by al Qaeda, but the local purpose of Jemaah Islamiyah, the group strongly suspected of carrying it out, was to destabilize Indonesian society and pave the way for Islamic radicals to seize power there.

Ultimately the Muslim world must decide for itself whether it wants to live under Islamic totalitarianism, but we are part of this fight whether we like it or not. To the extent that terrorism is allowed to win, we will face more terrorism everywhere. And Saddam, believer in magic weapons, has long been known to be fascinated by terror as an aid to his ambitions.

Now we're stuck guessing about his state of mind, especially his oft-pronounced belief that we would wilt at the sight of our own blood and run away, leaving the Mideast to him. He can see, by watching CNN, that Mr. Bush's support in Congress is far from unanimous. He might easily mistake obsessive media coverage of events like the suburban D.C. sniper or last year's suspiciously experimental-looking anthrax attacks as evidence that the country is prone to dissolve in panic. (Indeed, the possibility that we were being sized up for a larger anthrax assault is one Washington has preferred to ignore in pursuit of the rogue-scientist theory).

Various peacemongers have called for sending inspectors back to a country that has spent 10 years learning how to hide its weapons labs and stockpiles from inspectors. It's no longer possible to treat this as anything but a fig leaf for surrender. The worm finally turned last week, when the CIA chief sent a letter to Capitol Hill implying to some that we dare not move against Iraq lest Saddam strike back with a catastrophic terrorist attack.

We can blame ourselves for letting it get to this point. Deterrence is finally beginning to work -- for Saddam. Happenstance and Sept. 11 have given us one last opportunity to regain the initiative over whether and how he will end up using his terror weapons. That opportunity, though, will vanish fast.

Updated October 16, 2002


Post  43780  by  motordavid       OT: Lkorrow: pretty good read;

Post  43781  by  lkorrow       Reply
Motordavid, you're welcome, seemed like it fit in with the interests/discussion here. I found another that is more disturbing than sadam, imho.

Al Qaeda May Be Poised To Strike Again, Tenet Says
Associated Press

WASHINGTON -- Central Intelligence Agency Director George Tenet told lawmakers Thursday that recent attacks overseas suggest that al Qaeda is poised to strike once more against Americans -- possibly in the U.S.

Following recent terrorist attacks in Kuwait and Indonesia, "you must make the assumption that al Qaeda is in an execution phase and intends to strike us both here and overseas," Mr. Tenet said. "That's unambiguous as far as I'm concerned."

Mr. Tenet said he was meeting later in the day with Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge. He said Mr. Ridge already has taken defensive measures "in specific areas where the intelligence was most credible and in sectors where we're most worried about." He didn't identify them.

Mr. Tenet's comments came in response to questions as he defended the CIA's counterterrorism efforts before the Sept. 11 attacks. Mr. Tenet and Federal Bureau of Investigation Director Robert Mueller appeared before the House and Senate intelligence committees, culminating five weeks of public hearings on intelligence failures leading up to the attacks.

Under questioning by Sen. Fred Thompson (R., Tenn.), Mr. Tenet didn't offer an opinion about whether the national threat level should be raised beyond yellow, which is the current designation under a federal coding system. But he said the present situation is comparable with what existed in the U.S. in the summer before the Sept. 11 attacks.

"You must make the analytical judgment that the possibility exists that people are planning to attack you inside the United States -- multiple simultaneous attacks. We are the enemy, we're the people they want to hurt inside this country," he said.

Mr. Tenet's remarks followed similar warnings he gave the committees at a closed hearing in June. According to testimony released Thursday from that appearance, Mr. Tenet said it is impossible to guarantee that terrorists won't enter the country. He also said that "an attempt to conduct another attack on U.S. soil is certain."

Mr. Tenet also said then that there were reports that Osama bin Laden himself had suggested crashing large planes into the World Trade Center after an associate proposed using small aircraft packed with explosives.

In his appearance Thursday, Mr. Tenet offered a somewhat defiant tone to lawmakers, some of whom have criticized the CIA during the inquiry. Asked to limit his remarks to 10 minutes, he spoke for 50 minutes. When Sen. Bob Graham, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, urged him to abbreviate his remarks, Mr. Tenet refused. "I just have to say I've been waiting a year," he said.

He told lawmakers that before Sept. 11, the CIA had a large number of reports that a large al Qaeda operation was in the offing, but didn't know where Mr. bin Laden's operatives would strike.

"In the months leading up to 9/11, we were convinced bin Laden meant to attack Americans, meant to kill large numbers and that the attack could be at home, abroad and both. And we reported these threats urgently," Mr. Tenet said.

"But the reporting was maddeningly short on actionable details," Mr. Tenet conceded. "The most ominous reporting hinting at something large was also the most vague."

However, the CIA director also said the agency should have had two of the Sept. 11 hijackers put on watchlists preventing their entry into the U.S., after they were first associated with al Qaeda, in early 2000, instead of August 2001.

"The error exposed weaknesses in our internal handling of watchlisting which have been addressed," Mr. Tenet said. "Corrective steps have been taken."

Regarding criticism that the CIA should have given more warning that terrorists intended to use planes as weapons, Mr. Tenet said in seven years the agency received, and passed on, all 12 reports of such terrorist planning, even those from dubious sources. In comparison, counterterrorism officials received 20 times as many reports of potential car bombings, he said.

Mr. Tenet also said the CIA lost about 18% of its budget and 16% of its personnel in the post-Cold War budget cutbacks. Training new intelligence officers to replace them will take time, he said.

He also described some previously secret successes against al Qaeda, including the thwarting of planned attacks in Yemen, Jordan and elsewhere in the Middle East. The CIA record "will show a keen awareness of the threat, a disciplined focus and persistent efforts to track, disrupt, apprehend and ultimately bring to justice bin Laden and his lieutenants," Mr. Tenet said.

Responding to criticism that the CIA and FBI haven't shared information with each other, Mr. Tenet said the agency's alliance with the bureau "has produced achievements that simply would not have been possible if some of the recent media stories of all-out feuding were true."

The director of the National Security Agency, Lt. Gen. Michael Hayden, and other intelligence officials, also were scheduled to appear.

The committees' joint inquiry hasn't uncovered any evidence that by itself could have prevented the attacks. But lawmakers have criticized agencies for not sharing information about potential threats that, if linked, might have uncovered the plot.

"It is at least a possibility that increased analysis, sharing and focus would have drawn greater attention to the growing potential for a major terrorist attack in the United States involving the aviation industry," said Eleanor Hill, the inquiry's staff director.,,SB1034879151197752628,00.html?mod=world_news_whats_news

Post  43782  by  lkorrow       Reply
China's Economy

I hesitate to post so many stories from a source that requires a subscription, but this applies directly to the China conversation and perhaps the quaility of the Journal stories will encourage subscriptions, so here it is.

Pace, it looks like China's business cycle is counter and opposite to ours.

China's Economy Expanded 8.1% In 3rd Quarter, Driven by Exports


BEIJING -- China's economy chugged 8.1% higher in the third quarter from a year earlier, a performance that could cushion the sagging fortunes of other Asian countries in the face of a global slowdown.

As it has throughout the year, China rode surging investment and exports to exceed market growth expectations. Officials at the National Bureau of Statistics reported 7.9% growth for the first nine months, beating their own 7.8% forecast recently revised upward to reflect the new momentum.

The economic vitality comes as more foreign companies plow into China, opening factories and feeding booming overseas sales with the export of their products. While this trend has been a source of great concern among China's neighbors, there are signs that Chinese imports are partly compensating for the loss of investment and export markets. That new demand offers some solace for Asia, particularly Indonesia as it deals with deepening anxiety among investors and a potential slump in tourism linked to a devastating bombing on the resort island of Bali this past weekend.

Indeed, Asian sales of materials and components to China have rocketed this year as investors have turned the world's most populated country -- home to cutthroat prices and inexpensive labor -- into a global factory floor. In the first eight months, South Korea's exports to China climbed 42%, while Malaysia's grew 38% and Singapore's 31%. In Taiwan, where the government has been lifting restrictions on investing in its political archrival, exports to China shot up 171% in September alone, according to Rob Subbaraman, senior economist in Tokyo for Lehman Brothers.

"What's encouraging is that we are starting to see the positive side of the hollowing out," Mr. Subbaraman said.

Chinese officials expressed hope that the country's integration with other economies, particularly its entry last December into the World Trade Organization, will aid a global recovery. Foreign-invested factories account for about half of China's exports now, compared with low-single digits in the early 1980s. Consumer spending in big Chinese cities is picking up, particularly for automobiles.

"Our market is huge and shows good potential," said Qiu Xiaohua, deputy head of the National Bureau of Statistics. "If the economy maintains momentum, this will provide new opportunities for overseas investors."

According to figures released by the statistics bureau, used foreign direct investment rose 22.6% to $39.6 billion in the first nine months. Mr. Qiu predicted that figure could hit a record $55 billion for the whole year. Meanwhile, exports for the January to September period jumped 19.4% from a year earlier. Imports rose 17.2%.

Some economists see a downside to China's popularity as an export platform: As the country does more assembly work of others, Chinese companies are struggling to make a name for themselves overseas. "In terms of new products or new technology that would allow China to compete in the international market, there's not much progress," said Shawn Xu, managing director at China International Capital Corp. in Beijing.

Still, ahead of a sensitive political period, in which top Communist leaders may be stepping down after a November meeting, the government is eager to work all levers to lift growth. Around China, cities struggle with state enterprise reforms, which has resulted in sporadic unrest as companies shed millions of workers. That restructuring, coupled with slow income growth of poor farmers, has raised doubts about the prospects of China's economy -- even the accuracy of its figures, which are sometimes inflated by local officials eager to curry favor in Beijing. Consumer prices continue to decline, undercutting company profits and indicating weak domestic demand in many parts of the country.

At a media briefing, Mr. Qiu acknowledged that the number of unemployed workers is still increasing; he also estimated that a total of 7.4 million laid-off workers could be slightly higher if international definitions of unemployment are used.


Post  43783  by  motordavid       Reply
LK: that one I had
seen; hard to know, but, I suspect it will get uglier, before it gets less ugly. The bottom line is,imo, the hard line Allah zealots,for some reasons, want all Americans dead and gone. Not sure what they would "do" w/NYC,LV,thePlains,Big Easy,UT,etc.,etc., if they ever did pull off their "goal".......the pablum of the masses continues to be the underlying voltage for aggression,imo. But, Cheers and happy Friday. BR,md

Post  43784  by  Arkural       Reply

In a sense the answer may not matter.

Yes, it is East vs. West, as I see it. You're on the right wavelength. Domination is definitely a key role/objective.
Externally, both so-called powers, are not what they seem as they are understood by the masses.


Much too busy for interactions for awhile.

Post  43785  by  uponroof       Reply


Investors who saw the market's rally last week as a sign the bull market's back would probably mistake The Post's John Crudele for WWE Champion Brock Lesnar.

October 15, 2002 --

WHAT'S the difference between professional wrestling and the stock market? Everyone knows wrestling is fixed. With Wall Street you only suspect it.

Another thing: the folks who wrassle for a living are honest enough not to let you bet on their little slam dances. Wall Street is happy to slam a sucker for all his money.

Here we go again, folks. Last Thursday, with the sun shining and the economy not, the stock market suddenly came off the mat.

It's still down anywhere

21 percent to 38 percent depending on which crime scene you are looking at. But thanks to the miraculous rally last week the market doesn't look to be hemorrhaging as badly as it had been.

We can now agree that the market was rigged back in the 1990s, when rich investment bankers wanted to get even richer. So they sucked small investors into a bubble and into worthless IPOs from which many portfolios will never return.

Then there was last summer.

Back when the big shots were off getting gelatos, the second-stringers managed to rally the market. It worked for a couple weeks, even allowing some of the perma-bulls on CNBC to stop taking their antidepressants.

Then, suddenly, the bottom fell out of the market and September was memorable only for all the pain that was inflicted on investors.

So, why'd the market rally last Thursday?

Is the economy suddenly doing better than expected? As I've said before, I think the economic stats will soon start showing better results because of a freak of seasonal adjustments related to Sept. 11, 2001.

But so far the real economy isn't improving. In fact, it could be getting worse.

Even as the market was cheering up last week, retail sales were being reported as woeful. And consumer confidence was dipping, which wasn't surprising, since more and more companies are announcing massive layoffs.

Were corporate profits suddenly better?

Only if by "better," you mean "worse." Let's just say that companies are not disappointing those who expect to be disappointed.

How about the war?

Nothing good there.


Same old stuff. Republicans hate the Democrats, who hate the Republicans.

So why did the stock market rally?

It was magic.

More to the point, the Standard & Poor's index had declined to just below the well-known support level of 770. Then suddenly the index was propeled 8 percent higher over the next two days.

The less suspicious side of me attributes the sudden bounce off the 770 level (it actually went down to 769) to technical programs on Wall Street that set off buy orders. Chalk it up to a reallocation of assets out of bonds and into stocks.

But the skeptical side of me (which I think is my left) believes that someone in Washington didn't think having the market go much lower was a very good idea, especially since a slew of disappointing corporate profits are likely still to come.

Those suspicious thoughts are fed by the fact that the buyers at 770 were mainly coming out of Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch. The former is known to be tight with Washington. The latter probably would like to be, especially with all the nasty investigations swirling around.

By moving large amounts of assets out of bonds and into stocks, Goldman and Merrill managed to turn a disastrous market slide into the first weekly gain since early September.

The suspicious side of me also notes that the rally on Wall Street started on the same day that congressional Democrats were turning up the heat on Securities and Exchange Commission chief Harvey Pitt, and one day before an economic summit that the Dems were holding to lambaste President Bush on the economy.

So, am I the only one who finds it odd that the Democrats were forced to convene their little whine-a-thon right in the middle of an impressive Wall Street rally?

I and a few others have suspected for years that Washington gives the financial markets a little, let's say, encouragement from time to time. And earlier this year the Federal Reserve admitted in its minutes that it considered taking extraordinary measures.

Those extraordinary measures, other journalists wrote, included goosing the stock market when times looked foul.

So, should you believe this market rally any more than the last one?

Only if you are willing to wager that I alone can whup a tag team of Triple H and Brock Lesnar. (Here's a clue: They are today's top wrestlers, and I am overweight and weak.)

* Please send e-mail to:

Post  43786  by  jeffbas       Reply
srudek, my point was that the "final" collapse of the blue chips in the 1973-74 bear market, which was worse than this one in almost all respects (except secondary tech stocks), gave total declines in those blue chips LESS than they have had already in this bear market.

Post  43787  by  uponroof       Reply
Dow 4000?

US Mortgages on the rise?


Don't mind me....I can't help it. Looking for bad or ominous news has become addictive/therapuedic/ and rewarding (in a warped community service sort of way). In reality I'm really very positive, but for some reason the markets have captured my dark side. Sorry, I just don't trust what's passing for 'wise financial capital' given our leaders, both in NY and DC, insist on the non blinking variety. At any rate...

Good Luck


Post  43788  by  lkorrow       Reply
motordavid, We understand that, but they haven't met up with the law of unintended consequences yet. That is, if they use their WMD here to get rid of us and take over the country, the country would be uninhabitable and there would be no economy or talent to produce anything. ANd they would have killed millions of muslims here. That applies to nuclear or blackpox or whatever else they come up with. And in the flash of a button, there's be a new sea in the Middle East. That would get rid of this problem. Lets face it, even the Saudis come here for doctors. If they only chose to try to destroy our economy, they can play with the Chinese. And the Chinese will eventually get them. This whole thing is a lose-lose unless they get peaceful and join the club. Why they don't, I can't figure.

Yes, happy Friday, enjoy! BR2U2. Thanks, Linda