Table On-Topic Summary - 27-Oct-2002

A compilation of this board's financial/economic posts From 44123 to 44144

Post  44123  by  Decomposed       OT: Table ON TOPIC SUMMARY Oct 26, 2002

Post  44124  by  tinljhtkh       OT: Let's just say,

Post  44125  by  Arkural       Reply

OT-Perhaps some might find this of interest/use. Imo NO peace will be sustaining without first (re)acquiring peace within. Start at home first, howsoever you view that, and be prepared for a day that will come to test it... Regards, Alnilam~Alnitak~Mintaka --- Prayer for Peace… ~A Prayer Of Oneness~ I offer this prayer of peace Not to any one god nor to many gods Not to the Christian God Not to the Jewish God Nor to the Buddhist God Nor to the Islamic God And not even to the indigenous gods of many nations But to the divinity within that we all hold inside That makes us all brothers and sisters To make us truly One Family In the name of humanity. I offer this prayer of peace To the cosmic Oneness that is our birthright And our privilege And our strength That should we let it shine and show us the way Will guide us to the road of peace Not the Christian peace Not the Jewish peace Not the Islamic peace Nor the Buddhist peace And not even the indigenous peace of many nations But the human peace That has a place in the hearts of all people To allow us to truly fulfill our divine potential To become the children of one humanity. I offer this prayer of peace To allow us all to realize The truth of our existence To allow us all to discover The sanctity of our lives To allow us all to seek The spirituality of our beings Please allow us to experience With all our hearts and our souls The intimate connection to the divine That we all possess inside For our bodies are the temples of worship And our souls the altars Upon which we shall stand tall And live out the true meaning Of our existence. I offer this prayer of peace To declare a revolution Of the human spirit I wish to announce that It is now time For all of us to spiritually awaken And become enlightened For the time for the enlightened few is over The age of elitist enlightenment has passed For how long do we seek to wait for prophets To come down from mountaintops And tell us what to do We all must become enlightened To recognize our divinity To raise up our consciousness And proclaim our independence From blind reliance on long ago sages And find the answers from our own well Of spiritual wisdom We must ourselves become the enlightened ones We must ourselves realize our Oneness I declare that we must all become earth-humans of the earth And not of any religion, nation, or race. But of this earth, for this earth, and by this earth To create a lasting peace on earth. I offer this prayer of peace With all my fellow earth-humans For a lasting peace on earth. Dr. Ilchi Lee

Post  44126  by  pacemakernj       Reply

PMCW, RE: Gold. I only posted those comments because I think they are pertinent to the subject wrt gold. It is, as they say, one person's opinion. Albeit from a major brokerage which I regard as a player in the industry. Just for the record here and in the interest of full disclosure I still own some gold stocks. I do trade them and sold some before this immediate downturn. But I bought more back this week. I still hold only 10% of my assets in gold stocks given the volatility wrt gold. But I have begun to put more cash back to work (in equities) in the last couple of weeks. I do believe that we will continue to see stocks perform well to the end of the year. It will not be a straight line but imo, there is an upward bias. We may get pullbacks but I am using them to add to positions. I am a trader for the most part and still believe that one of the myths shattered in this bear market has been the "buy and hold" concept. IMO, the operative words are trade, trade, trade. I realize that runs counter to your positions wrt ISIL, XICO, and HLIT but if I get 10% or 20% move on a stock I am out. Conversely, if a stock drops 8-10% from my buy point I am out as well. I really don't think I am in a position today to be privy to the inside info that it takes to make long term bets. There just always seems to be some bad news that lurks beneath the surface. E.G., take IBM, the stock ran from 54 to 75 on what I thought was a fair earnings report. To me this stock is WAY overvalued. Especially given the fact that next year they are going to have to come to grips with their pension liabilities. Which, btw they said as much in the 3rd qtr. report. To me it rates a sell in here but the momentum guys are behind it and it may run further. That said I know you are a big fan of IBM but at $75 it's way overpriced. It's probably worth closer to $55-$60. IMO, there are better bets like ISIL on a pullback. To me whether you buy gold or gold stocks or common stocks it is all part of investing and the only thing I am sure about is uncertainty. So getting back to gold I am not in love with any investment and one must keep a short leash on all their investments as this fickle market can change in the blink of an eye up or down. But that's just me. Pace.

Post  44127  by  pacemakernj       Reply

Linda, RE; gold, that's possible, but the bet as I understand MSDW is the US dollar. If the dollar continues to fall gold will outperform stocks. That said, I think will have some time here to continue to trade gold stocks as there is still an upward bias. But as the MSDW report said if you think gold will fall below $300 you should lock in any gains and sell. But I'll continue to trade them. As this week I bought more on this recent dip. Pace.

Post  44128  by  pacemakernj       OT: Tin...

Post  44129  by  pmcw       Reply

pace, Without a doubt, one can make money trading anything. It took me a little while to help my daughter understand trading, bubbles and value as the market price for some of her beanie babies soared to several hundred dollars each. However, when I placed $1,000 (the price a person offered for two of the small stuffed animals)in her hand and described what it could buy, she bid them farewell without hesitation. Those who promote trading can always sight examples where it beats buy and hold. It's easy - just look at the 52 week high and low of virtually any stock and you can "imagine" the money one can potentially make. Further more, if I was moving a relatively small money amount around (my trading funds are a small percentage of my net worth, but I'll probably again log a few hundred trades this year) or playing a game that runs months, trading is, in most cases, the best way to win. Heck, in just the last three weeks I've made considerably more on a few trades than the the gold mining index moved this year from bottom to top. However, for a lifetime of investing and particularly for the average person who knows very little about "trading", it is a poor substitute for investing. On any given day, there will be many who say "it's different this time". That's what they said to justify the bubble, predict the NASDAQ would rocket to 15,000 and that's what they say today. Different sets of people believe these myths. It matters only what they are predisposed to believe. If you look back over my posting in 2000 you'll find plenty of mistakes just as you will if you look over 2001 or this year. However, one constant theme you will notice, from February on, is that I was thinning my positions in the companies most thought would go no where but up. Some I sold out completely and others I just reduced by 60% to 70%. Clearly, I should have sold them all, but on balance, wholesale trading isn't my game. Decomp will attest to the fact that this opinion was not very popular on the SUNW board. The point I was trying to make about gold is that seemingly very smart people are making cases (as is always true) that it is different this time. My point is that gold has only moved equal to the move of the dollar against the euro and over a 200 year history, it has moved exactly in line with dollar inflation. That's it, not a penny more. Gold mining stocks are very different than gold. They actually (in theory) have the same potential as any other equity investment. That's simply because they are an equity investment. They just happen to be hedged by a product that has a high level of identification. However, in reality, it is little different than an oil or natural gas company with reserves. That's it, I was only trying to get you to see things from another perspective and apply the age old Occam's Razor to your process. For the record, I think there will be some wonderful buying opportunities between Thanksgiving and Christmas. In other words, I don't think the forth quarter will be all that smooth, but I doubt many stocks will see their early October lows. As I posted before these lows were achieved, there is a very good chance that many companies will see their lowest price for the foreseeable future in early October. IBM is probably one of these companies, but is also one I would consider hedging with Dec70's or 75's once it hits $80. IBM may just make that pension adjustment in 2003, but if they do, it will be viewed as a one time event. Regards, pmcw

Post  44130  by  jbennett53       OT pacemakernj, Since it appears to be a done deal

Post  44131  by  pacemakernj       OT: Jbennett, those are two terrific articles advo

Post  44132  by  pacemakernj       OT: PMCW, trading versus buy and hold. I just thin

Post  44133  by  jeffbas       Reply

pace, I would go further to say that to think that Cold War tactics will work with the folks who have already attacked our civilians on 9/11 and do so daily in Israel, or that Saddam will have any compunction about selling/giving them weapons is delusional! There aren't any good choices here. As far as gold goes, I think pmcw's historical observation was significant. Therefore, if we have no domestic inflation, and you can make a case that the dollar is undervalued against the Yen (because of Japan's dreadful problems) and possibly the Euro (because Europe is not very competitive and political issues), then it would seem to me that the price of gold does not have very good long term fundamental support.

Post  44134  by  pmcw       Reply

pace, Thanks for the nice comment. I'm not sure that it would take more DD to invest long term (buy and hold) than it would to trade. To me, trading would seem to require a different and potentially more intense level of attention plus a ample supply of Tums. That aside, I feel very few of those who trade individual stocks have any business doing so. Maybe one in ten understand financial reports or the factors that actually drive the businesses they buy. It is extraordinarily difficult to beat the total market index (the Wilshire 5000) over an extended period of time. In the vast majority of cases, people would do much better to simply place their equity allocation there and pay more attention to making money. However, "we" might just be the exception. ;o) It's funny to watch the press and the talking heads. All during the summer they found a negative spin on anything they touched. There were plenty of negative events to report, but they didn't bother calling glasses half full or half empty - they just called them dirty. I think this helped drive many stocks to bargain prices which, for many IMO, bottomed in early October. I expect another rush to sell before year end and a geo-political event could change all the rules, but baring this, I doubt the majority of the tech world will pierce their October lows. IBM is an interesting animal. Clearly it's way too complex for anyone to say they have a good handle on its true value. I'll bet a group of auditors with total access would need a 20%+ range before they could come to an agreement. However, what I know is that they are one of three leaders in semiconductor fabrication / design, services, high end computing hardware and software. This is not to mention that their financial division is among the most effective on the planet. Beyond this, let's take a look at the numbers. Since I don't have complete cash flow data I'll use the TTM data (when I mention TTM) starting at the end of June. Sales for this year should come in around $80.7B and are forecast to hit $87.1 next year. My bet is that this will be adjusted upwards to over $88B. Their current market cap is $126.3B and their net tangible assets are roughly $20.5B. This means that the business is valued at just over $105B. The return on equity is 25.7%. The TTM operational cash flow was $14.2B (this is roughly $8.35 per fully diluted share). Their TTM "owners earnings" (operational less cap/ex) $8.9B ($5.23 per diluted share). Personally, I love an accountant that can drive this down to a forecast for 2002 of $3.91 in earnings. Part of this is because they are depreciating more than they are spending - I believe this is largely due to operational improvements. Out of the $8.9B they spent $5.2B TTM to buy their own stock ($600M more in Q3) and $1B was paid to the shareholders in dividends. An additional $3.2B went to pay down debt. I was in error when I mentioned shareholder might want to look at selling December calls if (when) IBM runs to $80'ish. There are no December calls available (I was in a hurry to watch KC beat Oakland). If someone wants to try to trade they might look for an opportunity to sell before Thanksgiving around $90 and then an opportunity to work back in starting in the high $70's as the market swoons between the holidays (my guess as to what we'll see). However, all the reports I've read thus far indicate a pretty solid year for IT spending and even a more significant increase in services. Therefore, I think IBM (even at the current price) is a great buy and hold. Of course, that's just my opinion and it may be worth less than you paid. Regards, pmcw PS: In my previous post when I mentioned February it was February 2000 not 2002.

Post  44135  by  Warstud       Reply

A New Technology.. This company has developed a patented system to stop people from stealing movies and music over the Internet. Sony just paid them $28.5 million to use it. Movie and music companies lose over $3 billion a year - and they admit that they'd pay anything to stop this. What Microsoft was to computers, this company is to the Internet. Over the past 5 years, copies of pirated Hollywood films have mushroomed. Last year, they cost the industry an estimated $3 billion in lost sales, a 29% increase from 1996. The New York Times recently reported that illegal copies of the blockbuster film 'The Fellowship of the Ring' was already on sale in the streets of Jalalabad, Afghanistan, before it was released to theaters in the United States. Windows XP was available for illegal use on the streets of Moscow two months before it was released in the U.S. by Microsoft. Even the richest man in the world, Bill Gates, can't figure out how to stop this from happening. The Motion Picture Association estimates that as many as one million movies are illegally downloaded from the Internet every day. DVD copies of 'Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone' were available in parts of China even before the film had hit theaters. The Music Industry Is a Classic Example of the Need for an Answer You read about it all the time. Some new Britney Spears CD appears around the world before it's officially released. Modern technology has enabled thieves to employ inexpensive, portable CD factories that take up no more space than a small room to manufacture illegal copies. These facilities can produce 100,000 CDs a year - and they've been built all over the world. In addition, websites in the U.S. and abroad enable Internet surfers to steal music. Back in the 1980s, VHS theft reached $100 million dollars a year. That was enough to get the movie companies angry, but not much was done about it. Too bad. This set the stage for the larger losses that would come from copying CDs and CD-ROM discs. According to the Recording Industry Association of America, the global audio industry loses about $5 billion every year to piracy. In some countries, 98% of the software used there is pirated. The Wall Street Journal wrote an article on this immense problem and the need for a solution. Here's some more eye-opening information it revealed. The movie and music studios are so desperate, they're offering a bounty. 'U.S. movie studios yesterday announced a new cash bounty for whistleblowers who come forward with details of movie pirating operations.' They're offering $15,000 as a reward. This field is called Digital Rights Management (DRM). It's a new term, because the industry is new. And it's simple to understand. These people help keep your intellectual property safe from individuals who would steal it. It doesn't matter if you sell books, make movies, record music, write poetry, make business software, have an e-commerce site - there's a system that can protect what you do. This innovative enterprise has a wide range of systems and software that accomplish this. And their products really work. They hold 24 U.S. patents and have approximately 90 patent applications pending worldwide. Their patent portfolio covers software and hardware techniques that can be implemented in a broad range of products. And this business is not new to them. They were founded in 1990 to accomplish this worthwhile task. They've taken the time to get it right. Here's a partial listing of their various patented services: *Protect Your Website from Hackers Who Steal Your Content: When a website owner sends a file - or even when they don't - information can be stolen from the site. They can instantly detect the illegal usage of your site and stop it on the spot. *Keep Software from Being Copied: When you buy software, you pay for a single license. In other words, 12 friends shouldn't then copy the software and use it on their computers. Their software integrity technology allows you to practically eliminate unauthorized use of software. What would Microsoft pay for that? *Securing the Information in Computers for Larger Companies: Think of a company with 5,000 employees. It only takes one bad apple to illegally download a plan for a new product or proprietary sales figures. The future of a company can easily be jeopardized. Now this can be stopped. *Making Music and Movies Safe to Send: You've seen the figures on the rip-offs in this business. Imagine if you could legally sell a song to an individual - and then prevent that person from turning around and illegally peddling it to a friend or stranger. That's no longer a wish, it's a fact, because of the encryption code written into the product that's sold. The company: InterTrust Technologies Corporation (ITRU) $3.02 Copied from agora.com

Post  44136  by  tinljhtkh       OT: Pace!

Post  44137  by  tinljhtkh       Reply

Warstud! The last one of these deals that I heard about, particularly the DVD and CD piece of the puzzle, was gotten around by simply taking a magic market and drawing a circle around the edge of the DVD! Does it stop that, or am I talking about a different form of technology? Regards, Tin

Post  44138  by  pacemakernj       Reply

Jeffbas, I am slowly coming around to you and PMCW wrt to gold. That does not mean I am giving up. But, I have said before that the moment of truth is coming wrt gold in the next few months. We agree on your first point. Pace

Post  44139  by  Warstud       Reply

Tin.. Actually the magic marker trick was mentioned in the article, but for Sony's sake I did not wish to paste it because thats the first I heard of it. The article says that Sony developed that technology but a few days after this technology showed up in the stores, pirates defeated Sony's elaborate copy-protection technology. So to answer your question "Does it stop the magic marker trick", sounds like it does to me. Later!

Post  44140  by  ferociousD       Luo Agreement

Post  44141  by  jeffbas       OT: "If they respect our ideas, they will res

Post  44142  by  oldCADuser       OT: Let me be the first to say:

Post  44143  by  lkorrow       Reply

OCU, there were a lot of people caught inbetween, it's unfortunate. At least EDS did something. But health care is completely out of control. Tell me why costs will double in 5 years, that's ridiculous. We seem to be getting ripped off on a scale far larger than the recent corporate executive suite ripoffs. I'm tempted to sell my gold and throw it all in United Healthcare. That kind of growth's nothing to sneeze at these days.

Post  44144  by  oldCADuser       OT: Sorry, I meant the Angels, not the Angles.