Table On-Topic Summary - 28-Oct-2002
A compilation of this board's financial/economic posts From 44146 to 44179



Post  44146  by  tinljhtkh       Reply
Warstud!

CNBC demonstrated the magic marker trick on the air a few weeks ago! That's how I knew about it! They did it in a tasteful manner but wanted people to know what had happened because there are apparently few secrets in the pirated music crowd anyway!

Regards,

Tin


Post  44147  by  maniati       OT: Tin: In the end, all you have done is justify


Post  44148  by  pacemakernj       Reply
Linda, I have been putting some cash to work in here. In addition to INTC, bought some UTX and MACR. But I have been trading a lot lately. Also bought more KRY on this move down as well. I think we are going to continue this move. As they say don't fight the tape. Good Luck, Pace.




Post  44149  by  pmcw       Reply
pace, Just so that the record is straight - my gold comments were strictly long term observations - that things will always return to the norm given time, just as market averages are doing to compensate for the hyper-market of 98 and 99. In the short term, if we go to war, if we see a huge geo-political change, etc. gold could and likely would go up significantly. So, if you're "hedging" against terror or the dollar, gold is a good place to part some funds. I've said several times that I have just enough for food and ammunition - clearly a hedge against the worst of times.

Regards, pmcw




Post  44150  by  pmcw       Reply
NVDA, AS a follow on to Friday's post - It appears that the reported shortage of video chips is real and tied to new business. In other words, they should see a great Q4. I wouldn't be surprised if LSI doesn't see the same - not as much gain, but substantial none the same. Regards, pmcw



Post  44151  by  maniati       Reply
srudek: Some economics-related comments....

First, you had asked me about the effect of money/currency on prices. I did respond to you - a while back - and I wanted to make sure you knew that. My response is at:

http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=TABLE&read=43740

In addition, you also posted an excerpt from a piece about Vernon Smith, and asked if that was what I meant when I said AT was unscientific. Your post was at:

http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=TABLE&read=43603

Well, first, I should say that I have heard the claim that AT does not exactly favor quantitative analysis or the scientific method, but I am not so sure that I want to pursue this until I read some more on the subject. The reason I say that is that I don't want to make the same mistake that I have been cautioning about, and that is being too eager to label the various economic camps. You obviously are in the process of developing your own economic "world-view," and I certainly do not want to mistakenly try to paint you into a corner by suggesting that you have some issue with quantitative methods. In view of the fact that you have a degree in computer science, it is rather unlikely that you would have a problem with quantitative analysis or the scientific method. So, I don't want to put you in a position of feeling you have to defend someone else who might. In the meantime, I'm endeavoring to lean more about AT.

But, in answer to your question, yes, the comment that you included in bold is a reasonably close approximation to the criticism I have read. In addition, I have seen this criticism extended to a distaste for quantitative analysis, as well.

I am certainly willing to withhold further judgment until I read Human Action. That seems only fair. More importantly, actually understanding AT is a lot more important than having a judgment about it. Once I feel comfortable that I understand it, then I will be happy to express my judgments. :-)

But, at the same time, consider the quotation that you had highlighted:

...because it violates a central premise of Austrian methodology, that laws of human action cannot be "tested" for falsification.

Laws of economics in and of themselves cannot be set up for testing, as if they are found to be invalid in one place, by their very nature they would have to be invalid everywhere.


Well, if that is true, then what is to stop anyone from asserting anything as true? Obviously, that does not work, so things are not quite as simple as the author would suggest. There has to be some way of determining, or evaluating, the quality of any economic theorem.

Moving on....

I am actually quite familiar with economic schools of thought based on private property rights and free markets. So, there might actually be a lot of AT that I agree with, and I suspect there is. (Keep in mind, that my primary motivation in expressing caution about AT had more to do with evaluating all ideas on their merits, and not being quick to jump into a camp or get too caught up on labels; I wasn't trying to criticize AT per se. I would have offered the same caution if someone were expounding the virtues Keynesian economics or monetarism.)

I went back and read the entire article that you had linked. I found it interesting that the author described Ronald Coase as being "on the fringe." I would have thought Coase's work was fairly consistent with the ideas expressed by the author. I think the reason that he was described as on the fringe is that his work was in the area of "law & economics." He wasn't strictly economics. But, I'm quite familiar with Coase, fwiw. He has written some pretty interesting stuff, and I was pleased to see him get the Nobel in economics a few years back.

The author also made what sounded like a disparaging comment about the U. of Chicago, and I found that odd. I would have thought that Chicago-style thinking would have exhibited a lot of congruence with AT. There certainly are some noteworthy proponents of property rights and capital markets at Chicago. BTW, I didn't go there, so it's not as though I am taking any personal offense; I just would have thought that Chicago, of all places, would be one that AT might have approved of.

Also, I'm quite familiar with George Mason Univ., which is where Vernon Smith is. They have a reputation as being proponents of private property rights and unfettered markets.

Hope all is going well with your research.



Post  44152  by  pacemakernj       OT: Tin...


Post  44153  by  pmcw       Reply
802.11b spike reported as combo WLAN chips near
By Rick Merritt
EE Times
October 24, 2002 (1:03 p.m. EST)

SAN JOSE, Calif. Some chip and systems makers are reporting an uptick in the growth rate of 802.11b wireless LAN capability in notebook computers, just as a transition to next-generation WLAN products nears. Some analysts say aggressive pricing may force a near-term shakeout among .11b chip suppliers.

"Originally we anticipated we'd have 802.11b integrated in about 10 percent of our notebooks, but what we have seen recently is that has doubled to at least 20 percent. We think in the next 18 months wireless LANs will be as ubiquitous in notebooks as modems are today," said Ron Sperano, program director for wireless mobile market development at IBM Corp.

"Forecasted growth has jumped by a factor of 1.5 this year," said Steve Schnier, a market segment manager at Texas Instruments Inc. "People started out in January hoping to see 12 million units sold and now they are predicting 18 to 20 million units."

But other analysts pour cold water on both long- and short-term enthusiasm. Neither International Data Corp nor Semico Research Corp. have revised upwards their 802.11b chip projections for 2002. Connie Wong, wireless analyst for Semico, said she expects 13 million chip sets will ship this year, up 62.5 percent from last year's 8 million.

As for the long-term, "Although we agree with the [Intel Corp.] forecast for 15 percent growth in the mobile PC market over the next few years, we believe Intel's forecast of a 90 percent WLAN attach rate by 2004 is too high," wrote Joe Osha, senior analyst for Merrill Lynch & Co., in a research report filed Wednesday (Oct 23).

Dell Computer Corp. has for two years offered an Agere Systems Inc. 802.11b chip set as an option for its notebooks via a miniPCI card, a Dell spokeswoman said. About 10 percent of Dell's notebooks are bought with the option today, and "it's been going up steadily," she said.

The exact trajectory of 11-Mbit/second 802.11b technology is being debated as next-generation 54-Mbit/s 802.11a/b/g combo chips and systems head to market.

WLANs go mainstream


Some first-tier computer makers are expected to debut at Comdex in November their first notebooks with dual 2.4-GHz and 5-GHz 802.11a/b/g chip sets. And Intersil Corp. announced Wednesday (Oct 23) that it has started sampling its two-piece Prism Duette, an 802.11a/b/g chip set that integrates a media-access controller (MAC), a baseband processor and uses a zero-intermediate-frequency architecture.

"Wireless networking is continuing its strong growth and is rapidly becoming mainstream," said Larry Ciaccia, general manager for Intersil's wireless products group in a company statement. Intersil estimates a total of more than 30 million 802.11b systems have been sold worldwide to date.

Texas Instruments which hopes to grab as much as a 16 percent stake of this year's 802.11b market will sample its own 802.11a/b/g chip set in the second quarter of 2003, Schnier said.

The two companies will compete with Atheros Communications Inc., which began production of an 802.11a/b/g chip set earlier this year and has design wins with NetGear, Sony, D-Link and others. "We are the only people shipping," said Sheung Li, product line manager for Atheros (Sunnyvale, Calif.).

Atheros' chip set integrates power amplifier and VCO parts that are not found in the Intersil Duette, Li said. Intel will ship an internally developed 802.11 combo chip set as part of its Banias notebook processor and core logic chip set early next year; that implementation will feature an Intel MAC and a Symbol Technologies Inc. baseband chip.

Intense price war


More than a dozen companies are competing for the growing number of 802.11 sockets in notebooks and embedded systems, sparking an intense price war at the 802.11b level.

Neither Dell nor IBM would comment on their plans for next-generation 802.11 chip sets. "If that decision hasn't been made yet, in the next couple weeks it will be," said Sperano of IBM, noting that IBM currently uses a mix of Cisco Systems and Intel .11b silicon.

"The .11b market is vicious right now. Chips that were $30 a year ago are selling in the teens now," said Li of Atheros.

Although Intersil has been an .11b pioneer, its financials are far from sunny despite the current growth in that market. Osha of Merrill Lynch said he expects Intersil's revenue for its next quarter to be up just 5.4 percent to $185 million. "We think that the company's expectations for improving margin may meet with disappointment," he said.

Separately, an effort to define a standard interface between 802.11 MAC and RF chips is gaining momentum. The Jedec-61 group now has more than 40 backers, including Nokia, TI, Motorola, Infineon, Intersil and Intel, said Benno Ritter, a strategic marketing manager at Philips Semiconductors who chairs the effort.

The Jedec group hopes to select a final clocking scheme at an IEEE 802.3 meeting in Hawaii in November. It is already drafting portions of the spec, including the protocol. It hopes to have a final spec available by June.

By using a standard interface, proponents hope to let OEMs mix and match baseband and RF components and ease placement of antennas. Philips is said to be planning to build 802.11 antennas into future LCD modules.

"The embedded market for 802.11 is just starting up. This interface will be ready for those products when they come out in 2004," Ritter said.

Even with a standard interface, some believe separate baseband and RF chips won't match the performance of parts that have been designed and optimized as a pair. "People already have products shipping with integrated RF, so why do we want to take a step back?" asked Atheros' Li.




Post  44154  by  pacemakernj       Reply
PMCW, points noted, and I am hedging against the dollar and war. But just to reiterate I will ONLY invest no more the 10% of assets into gold stocks at this time. Thanks for the IBM comments as well. I am looking for 80-82 short term. Pace.



Post  44155  by  lkorrow       Reply
Pace, Thanks, good luck 2U2! Looks like an up day already, gold shooting up nicely too.



Post  44156  by  clo       Reply
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Standard & Poor's--Oct. 28,
2002--Slightly over half the major U.S. office markets had vacancy
rates above the 14% national average by the end of the second quarter
2002.
These markets included California's Los Angeles consolidated
metropolitan statistical area (CMSA)-the market that contains the
largest concentration of office properties within Standard & Poor's
Ratings Services' U.S.-rated conduit/fusion CMBS transactions,
according to a recent article released by Standard & Poor's Real
Estate Finance group.
The article, "Sluggish Economy Could Increase U.S. Office Mortgage
Delinquencies Over the Long Term," uses the example of the Los Angeles
CMSA to exemplify that economic factors driving population and
employment growth for major U.S. office markets are expected to remain
sluggish, resulting in increasing mortgage delinquencies throughout
the nation. "Standard & Poor's expects U.S. office delinquencies,
though currently still low, to increase in the future," said Roy Chun,
Managing Director of Standard & Poor's CMBS Surveillance Group.
According to the article, of the major property types tracked by
Standard & Poor's, office loans had the greatest increase in
delinquencies in the second quarter of 2002. California contains the
largest concentration of office properties in the U.S., with almost
half of the properties located within the Los Angeles CMSA, comprising
Los Angeles, Orange, and Riverside-San Bernardino counties. By the end
of the second quarter of 2002, the Los Angeles CMSA had an average
vacancy rate (15.6%) that exceeded the national average (14.0%), led
by Orange and Los Angeles counties.
The high vacancy rate in the Los Angeles CMSA is generally a
result of the oversupply of direct office space, primarily within Los
Angeles and Orange counties. The combination of the oversupply of
office space and reduced employment growth has impacted the effective
rents within the CMSA. By the end of the second quarter of 2002, the
effective rent within Los Angeles County had declined to $22.28 per
square foot, which is slightly above its 1999 levels.
However, over the next five years, the Los Angeles CMSA is
expecting strong population and employment growth in the areas of
entertainment, foreign trade, aircraft and parts, communication, and
business services, the article says. Furthermore, as of July 15, 2002,
there were no reported loan delinquencies there. "The CMSA is expected
to show some improvement in the future due to population and
employment growth," Mr. Chun said.
Still, the forecasted national vacancy rate is expected to be
higher than the current national vacancy rate (14.0%) and is an
indication that expected employment growth in the Los Angeles CMSA, as
well as in other U.S. office markets, may not be sufficient enough to
create a level of office demand to absorb the currently abundant
oversupply of office space or encourage company expansion.
"Sluggish Economy Could Increase U.S. Office Mortgage
Delinquencies Over the Long Term" is available on RatingsDirect,
Standard & Poor's Web-based credit analysis system, at
www.ratingsdirect.com. It is also available on Standard & Poor's Web
site at www.standardandpoors.com. Click on "Fixed Income", then under
"Browse by Sector" click "Structured Finance", and under "Commentary &
News", scroll down to the Oct. 16 article.
Standard & Poor's is a leader in providing highly valued financial
data, analytical research and investment and credit opinions to the
global capital markets. With more than 5,000 employees located in 18
countries, Standard & Poor's is an integral part of the world's
financial architecture. Additional information is available at
www.standardandpoors.com.

Copyright 2002, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services

--30--cla/se*

CONTACT: Standard & Poor's
Joan S Biro, New York (1) 212-438-2402
Roy Chun, New York (1) 212-438-2430
Gale Scott, New York (1) 212-438-2601

KEYWORD: NEW YORK
INDUSTRY KEYWORD: BOND/STOCK RATINGS
SOURCE: Standard & Poor's

Today's News On The Net - Business Wire's full file on the Internet
with Hyperlinks to your home page.
URL: http://www.businesswire.com




*** end of story ***




Post  44157  by  kduff       Reply
Enterprise Networks

Tracking a weak link

By Globe Staff, 10/28/2002

study being released this week shows that nearly one-third of all business network failures are the result of human error, a close second to service failures by businesses' phone and Internet access providers.



The Yankee Group, the Boston-based research and consulting firm, surveyed 229 people who run networks for businesses and government agencies. The survey found that 35 percent of all network outages were caused by their service provider, but a close second, at 31 percent, was human error. Power outages caused 14 percent and hardware failures 12 percent, according to the survey, partly sponsored by Gold Wire Technology, a Waltham company that sells network configuration management systems.

Implementing ''a few simple best practice rules'' could save companies and agencies millions, Yankee vice president Zeus Kerravala said. Those rules include restricting network operators from sharing passwords and setting up ways to record when, how, and why routers, firewalls, and other network elements were reconfigured, he said.

HEALTH-CARE SOFTWARE

S entillion in VA deal

Andover-based health-care software maker Sentillion Inc. has struck a deal with the Department of Veterans Affairs that could be worth as much as $10 million over the life of the contract.

The VA plans to use Sentillion's Vergence Context Management software in VA facilities nationwide. The system is compatible with major medical database products, allowing a single access point for a variety of medical records.

Sentillion' s software also synchronizes the information. As a result, health-care workers can quickly review all interactions between the VA and each patient. The deal is part of a $1.3 billion overhaul of VA computer systems.

WIRELESS CONNECTIONS

W iFi seen set to grow

Cambridge-based Pyramid Research has a message for Baby Bells and old-line telephone companies: Figure out how to sell WiFi before WiFi eats your lunch.

In a new research paper, Pyramid predicts short-range, high-capacity wireless connections called WiFi (officially 802.11b) pose a gathering threat to the Bell monopoly over the ''local loop'' and phone-based digital subscriber lines.

Verizon, SBC, and BellSouth have put billions into wireless phone companies, but Pyramid researchers Jona than Thirone and Daniel Torras said WiFi is set to grow 30 percent a year through 2007. Bells need a WiFi strategy fast, they say, because ''the 802 genie is out of bottle and is too big to stuff back in.''

SOFTWARE AND INTERNET

T ech cheerleaders

Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan has been a technology optimist for years, praising the spread of computers and the Internet for boosting economic productivity. And despite the technology spending downturn, the sector was still on Greenspan's radar during a visit to Boston earlier this month.

Greenspan was in town for meetings with officials at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. At a gathering of about 100 people, one speaker was Joyce Plotkin, the president of the Massachusetts Software & Internet Council, who also serves on the bank's regional advisory board.

During her talk, Plotkin said she outlined the challenges to the local tech sector, which has lost 29,000 jobs in the last two years. Despite slow sales and dwindling investments, Plotkin said executives still have reasons for optimism, including a sense that plenty of orders are in the pipeline.

What did Greenspan make of the remarks? Hard to say, says Plotkin, since the chairman didn't respond. ''My guess is he's not allowed to react, because everybody hangs on his every word,'' Plotkin said.





Post  44158  by  ttalknet2       Reply
Jim Sinclair: Islamic Gold Dinar

"...starting to think that the plan for the Gold Dinar and support from other Islamic nations is a planned offensive against the use of the dollar as a settlement currency for oil."

"...if the Gold Dinar is employed as now suggested, it would tie up approximately 200 tonnes of gold production equal to 10% of new mine supply. If Malaysia went all the way and went to convertibility with a 15% gold cover, they would utilize more than 300 tonnes of new production. Either way, this is the Wildest of Wild Cards for Gold."

More: http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/editorials/102802.htm

Sigh. Another battlefront takes shape.



Post  44159  by  Decomposed       OT: Table ON TOPIC SUMMARY Oct 27, 2002
Post  44160  by  oldCADuser       OT: The current state-of-the-art in timekeeping te


Post  44161  by  pacemakernj       Reply
Linda, did you check out MACR today. A very nice move. I am looking for $15. I'll buy more on any pullbacks. It has broken out and the chart looks terrific. I recommend buying it. Regards, Pace.



Post  44162  by  uponroof       Reply
FED: "need to push prices higher"

uponroof- Just an inkling of alarm at our favorite institution these days.

I don't know what all the fuss is...if they want to support inflation simply allow POG to rise! Everyone knows they've spent the last umpteen years carefully brainwashing all wrt POG as an inflation indicator. Over that period of time their efforts to project a docile POG must count for something, and if so, the inverse must be counted as true!

Surely we now understand that a higher POG reflects inflation....so duhhh!....engineer a higher POG! Ahhhh... but we can't do that, the financial institutions whose derivative network abused the docile POG would go deep sea diving without breathing apparatus. What to do?

Next stop...CRB index? Are there any unadulterated indicators left?

********

WASHINGTON, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Since the middle of last year inflation has slowed so sharply in the United States that monetary policy may now need to push prices higher, a Federal Reserve economist said.

"In the current environment, maintaining price stability may now entail supporting inflation from below," Dallas Fed senior economist Jim Dolmas said in an Oct. 10 presentation to the regional Fed bank's board. The presentation was recently posted on the bank's Web site.

"Since the middle of last year, what had been a disturbing acceleration in the rate of consumer price inflation has turned into a very sharp deceleration," Dolmas said.

Dolmas also took note of dropping goods prices. "While falling goods prices are not, in themselves, evidence of deflation -- and may, in fact, have reasonable explanations in terms of productivity growth -- nonetheless, very low overall rates of inflation may still warrant caution."

Dallas Fed President Robert McTeer was one of two policymakers to seek an immediate drop in interest rates when the central bank's policy panel met on Sept. 24, but the majority voted to hold rates steady at four-decade lows.

Speaking less than a week after that meeting, McTeer said he did not know when "welcome disinflation might morph into unwelcome deflation" but he believed faster economic growth was nevertheless essential. This past Tuesday, McTeer said inflation was poised to go lower.

McTeer has declined to take questions on the reasoning behind his decision to break ranks with his Fed colleagues, saying his thinking would be made public when minutes of the Sept. 24 policy session are released shortly after the Nov. 6 meeting on rates.

Deflation can take a heavy economic toll by raising the real burden of debt and giving consumers an incentive put off purchases until prices fall further, a self-reinforcing cycle.

Deflation also can pose problems for policymakers when interest rates are low because it is inflation-adjusted, or real, rates that matter for growth. When prices drop, it pushes real rates higher, acting as a brake on the economy.

In his essay, Dolmas said the mildness of the economy's recovery was not surprising given the mildness of last year's recession, but said jobs growth was weak even taking this into account.

He also said signs output had slowed since July were troubling.

"The recent cooling on the production side of the economy is a definite cause for concern, though it is premature to conclude that we are facing a double dip recession." he said.


http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=search&StoryID=1636211


********
-END-
********

US Treasuries Soar as Rate Cut Speculation Mounts

By Kyle Peterson

uponroof-Here's the quote: "Personally, I had thought the Fed would wait until December before easing, but now it looks like if the data this week is really bad, we could see a move sooner," he added.

CHICAGO, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Treasury prices rallied across the curve on Monday after two newspapers reported that the Federal Reserve was likely to cut interest rates in the next few months.

The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post each reported the Fed was worried a sluggish U.S. economy would be vulnerable to a shock such as a war in Iraq and was therefore likely to cut rates in the next few months.

The articles triggered aggressive demand for front-end Treasuries, particularly the two-year note US2YT=RR , which was up 5/32. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's December Eurodollar contract EDZ2 also bolted to a three-week high of 98.450 before trimming gains.

"The two-year has put in a pretty nice performance probably on the back of the report out of The Washington Post this weekend," said David Mozina, director of fixed income research at Bank of America.

He also noted "the realization that the numbers that trickle through over the next few months are going to be on the soft side, with possible risks tilted in that direction as well."

Taking the hint, dealers reported demand for steepening trades, where investors buy short-dated debt and sell the long end, expecting the former will outperform and the yield difference between the two will widen.

Meanwhile, fed funds futures and Eurodollar futures marched higher, reflecting heightened expectations that the Fed will cut rates soon.

Joe Giagrande, proprietary trader at Gelber Group, said the November fed funds contract FFX2 , which rose 35 basis points, was pricing in a 65 percent chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Nov. 6 meeting.

The December fed funds FFZ2 contract rose 55 basis points and was pricing in a 100 percent chance of a 25-basis-point cut in December, Giagrande said. Earlier, the contract had been pricing in an 85 percent chance.

The Post and WSJ reports surprised markets that had been listening to statements of cautious optimism on the economy from Fed officials, who have said policy was already accommodative enough to ensure a recovery.

"The papers double-teamed it, so the market's paid attention," said John Spinello, fixed-income strategist at Merrill Lynch Government Securities.

"Personally, I had thought the Fed would wait until December before easing, but now it looks like if the data this week is really bad, we could see a move sooner," he added.

The Fed's policy-making arm meets next on Nov. 6 and again on Dec. 9, which is the last policy meeting of the year.

Equities, which enjoyed mild gains earlier, shed them later on, with the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI falling 0.17 percent and the Nasdaq composite index .IXIC down 0.2 percent. The sell-off was somewhat supportive for debt, traders said.

EYES ON MANUFACTURING

Some analysts think the key to the Fed's next rate decision lies in the U.S. manufacturing sector, which led the economy into recession in 2001. Recent data suggest that the sector remains weak and, in fact, contracted in September.

The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index, due for release on Friday, was seen coming in at 48.9, down from 49.5 in September. A reading below 50 suggests contraction.

"It looks like the ISM is going to be below 50 for the second consecutive month," said Bill Hornbarger, chief fixed income strategist at A.G. Edwards and Sons. "That'll get the easing talk going again."

Other closely watched numbers due for release this week include data on consumer confidence on Tuesday. That index was seen slipping to 89.7 in October from 93.3 in September.

Data on U.S. nonfarm payrolls are due on Friday and are expected to rise by just 7,000 after a 43,000 drop in September.


http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=search&StoryID=1643785

Good Luck

Cheers




Post  44163  by  pmcw       Reply
roof, We aren't seeing deflation - not even mild deflation. What we are seeing is modest softness in prices due to low utilization of resources. This sort of softness can and will easily correct itself when utilization increases. In the mean time, companies are "right sizing" and trimming the fat they added when utilization was so high they complacently became wasteful. Couple this with strategic cap/ex that is improving core productivity and we'll see sales, earnings and utilization of fixed cost resources improve before employment.

We (particularly Greenspan) don't want to see real inflation. There will be enough hints of it just through firming prices. Inflation would kill the Federal Budget and OASDI (Social Security). It would also kill the boomer generation. Even you don't really want inflation - however, you might not realize it today. Inflation is not the way out of the debt bubble.

The debt bubble is actually seeping out more cleanly than I ever imagined. Many more companies need to fail and be absorbed and the stage is well set for this to continue. The credit spread is HUGE. Good businesses can get cheap money, but even the slightest weakness is being hit with punitive rates. This means that those holding this debt from the companies that will fail still have some huge challenges. This is one of two primary reasons I've long felt the Fed will drop the rates in November. It's not so much due to core economic failure as it is to keep the consumer alive (refinancing bonus) and keep the banking community with a good spread. Think of it as wrapping the banks in foam rubber. A third reason is to inject the ultimate feel-good after the elections. We always like an end to uncertainty and a rate cut following the vote will be like a strong cup of joe with our desert.

The latest round of refinancing bonus will hit the stores starting in Thanksgiving and hold through Christmas. Due to this, I feel mid to low end retail will do fine (not great), but high end retail will continue to suffer. Durable goods will pick back up and well get some more of the bad debt gas out of the system. This will help boost consumer confidence. The only downer will be that employment will continue to be soft for some time.

The FCC will resolve the satellite issue once and for all and they will kill the UNE-P rules that are killing the Bells. This, coupled with completion of the T/Comcast deal, will set the stage for the start of a telecom / broadband recovery. Add to the mix a solid increase in corporate IT spending and I see the potential for a sustainable recovery in tech during 2003. I think the optimism of this is starting to hit the market and that it will be more fully realized by the start of Q1.

roof, outside of betting on an unsettling geo-political event or as a prudent hedge, I don't see gold as the best place for an abundance of money. You won't go broke, but the odds say you'll do no better than keep pace with inflation.

Regards, pmcw


Post  44164  by  danking_70       OT: Arafat to oust reform minister


Post  44165  by  jeffbas       Reply
pmcw, to follow up on your point that gold has been a perfect inflation hedge over very long periods of time, but nothing more, wouldn't it make sense to buy TIPS over gold as a long term investment - you get gold's long term performance plus some real return? (Do you know what the real return on TIPS is running these days?)

Post  44166  by  oldCADuser       OT: The Minnesota Senate race could be even more d


Post  44167  by  pmcw       Reply
jeff, I've got a friend that buys TIPS every quarter - it's his only investment. His sole focus is making money and not losing what he saves. He's happy and comfortable. I sold my TIPS play (Vanguard Fund) at the end of Sept 2002. It was a nice run and actually beat most bond funds in 2002.

I thought about mentioning TIPS versus gold, but I feel pretty certain that most of the gold buyers here are either betting on a hedge against disaster or the unraveling of some mysterious plot to run gold to the equivalent of NASDAQ 15K. In other words, I doubt their goal is to simply protect themselves from inflation.

Regards, pmcw




Post  44168  by  pmcw       Reply
VSH, I posted about buying VSH in the $7's not that long ago. From its recent low to today's high it's up over 70%. Even today it's a good buy and a very nice buy write. April10's are bringing roughly $3. From the current price of $11.25 that will slam the cost down to $8.25 and lock in a near sure 21% profit in five months. If the market swoons there could be things much worse than owning VSH at $8.25. If you want to get a bit greedy, but still say within a very nice value range, sell the April15's for a buck and look for 46% profit or owning VSH at $10.25.

If you doubt that VSH is worth this subtract their net tangible assets from their market cap and you'll see why I like the play.

Regards, pmcw




Post  44169  by  bks844       Reply
CAD: re:

"
I don't know about you, but it seems that Jesse Ventura, for all the criticism and jokes made about him and his term as Governor of Minnesota, when there are important things to discuss and decide on, he appears to be someone who may "have it together" in ways much better then a lot of other politicians out there. "

How true this is!! While I did not vote for Jesse initially, I have learned to respect him for his blatant hosesty,call it as he sees it and just doesn't play around with 'political nice-ness'. He sees what needs to be done and doesn't waste anyones time, even if it was meant to save on HIS time to do personal 'other' things..write books,promote,sports commentator, whatever. YOU COULD TRUST JESSE TO BE REALLY UPFRONT. YOU NEVER HAD TO SECOND GUESS HIM. I believe that if he had chosen to run again, he would have won again,with the vote of the young people who won the governorship for him in the first place, and those of us who learned to appreciate his outspoken, sometimes childish temper tantrums, ways. IMO we certainly would be further ahead if all leaders in political positions we a bit.....a bit....more like Jesse. YOU CAN BELIEVE THAT WHAT THEY SAY IS WHAT THEY MEAN. UMMMMM...maybe I'll so a writein with his name just to make my statement.
I obtained an absentee ballot several days before Wellstone's accident and called the courthouse today asking if the ballot can be used. One person passed me off to another who stuttered around, then decided that it would be o.k....and that IF Mondale would be put on the ballot, and if I would choose to vote for him, his name could be written in, crossing out Wellstones? Ummmm.if the ballots with Wellstone's name won't be counted... I would assume they would look at the date the absentee ballot was signed....pre or post plane crash? Ummmmm again, what it it were signed the day OF the accident?
The people here don't seem to have any directive from the state. ????? bks- Trish





Post  44170  by  pacemakernj       Reply
PMCW, I really like those thoughts. Pace.

Post  44171  by  Decomposed       ot: Minnesota, bks844:
Post  44172  by  ferociousD       AssKKKroft lost to a dead man-
Post  44173  by  clo       OT: Oh ferociousD! Ashcroft, "deadman" <
Post  44174  by  tinljhtkh       OT: Maniati!


Post  44175  by  Decomposed       Reply
re: PC Shipments

From http://www.svdaily.com

What I *really* want to know is, Who is this "Other" that outdid Dell on total shipments and, aside from Dell, is the only brand with INCREASED year over year sales???



Company Q3 2002 Q3 2002 Q3 2001 Q3 2001 Growth(%)
Shipments Mrkt Shr(%) Shipments Mrkt Shr(%)

Dell 3,432,900 28.9 2,731,300 25.0 25.7
HP 2,279,300 19.3 2,316,300 21.2 -1.6
Gtwy 729,000 6.1 818,100 7.5 -10.9
IBM 651,800 5.5 688,300 6.3 -5.3
Apple 465,600 3.9 488,000 4.5 -4.6
Other 4,329,900 36.4 3,901,500 35.7 11.0


.


Post  44176  by  tinljhtkh       OT: Clo!


Post  44177  by  tinljhtkh       Reply
Decomposed!

My nephew has been working in his garage! :0)

Regards,

Tin




Post  44178  by  Decomposed       Reply
Actually, tin, you may not be far off base. My own suspicion is very much along those lines! I think the 11% growth is in no-name computers. Build-your-own systems.

And since home grown computers are mostly what folks do to save a few dollars (I build systems, and it's MY motivation), I think that bodes well for AMD -- which provides more bang for the buck for most users. (Hard-core techies may still go Intel, though, since there are more multiprocessing boards for Pentium than Athlon.)






Post  44179  by  tinljhtkh       Reply
Everybody

has a relative somewhere! AMD may be a good idea! When I'm not fighting humanities battles I'll take another look at it!

It is interesting to note that Dell is going to start selling a box under another name in one of the discount chains! The farmer in the dell always goeth where the market share plow has already started a row!

What do you know about these off-brands? Is packard-bell still around? It seems like that they used to flood stores like Sears with product. It went out and came right back in as returns at a rate of about 35 percent! Was Sony in your chart, or is that classified as an import? I see the Vio over at Sam's Wholesale Club. It's interesting to note that Sam's sales came in weak today in the Wal-Mart monthly report! They've been pushing this bulk concept but when you look at the pricing it sometimes doesn't add up. Costs extra to make those large bulk runs at the factory just as it does to create the extra packaging! WMT is even killing out its own bulk division with it efficiency. They are selling in such volume now that their suppliers can't even afford to run those bulk specials anymore without charging extra!

That concept may not work in computers for some of us, but looking at your figures makes me wonder if a lot of people aren't just buying them straight off of the shelf, taking what they get just like they do when they don't special order a new car! As commoditized as computers are at this time, factory run times and uniformity have to be important.
Shipping costs get to be an important factor and carting them in by the dozen off of a truck does cut down on that! Dell has been offering free shipping from time to time, and Amazon.com is thinking of charging no shipping at all, just building it into their cost structure. I have no idea if Amazon sells computers or not but when "free" starts entering the equation it quickly spreads across all market segments! Some of these companies may try to recover a little pricing power by hiding it in the cost structure of "shipping and handling."

IMVHO!

Regards,

Tin