Table On-Topic Summary - 30-Oct-2002
A compilation of this board's financial/economic posts From 44216 to 44308

Post  44216  by  Decomposed       OT: Table ON TOPIC SUMMARY Oct 29, 2002

Post  44217  by  Decomposed       Reply

Dell's logic makes some sense. I don't know when I last used a floppy. At work, I transport files across machines via the network. Between work and home, I often use e-mail or web servers and ftp if I have something too big for e-mail. Today, I burned a hierarchy to CD and carried it home.

More and more, what we're interested in doesn't even fit on floppies! And zipping large sets to span floppies is a pain.

But Dell's solution isn't perfect either. 16MB isn't large enough. Iomega did much better, even years ago, with its 100+ MB zip drives, and 2 gig jazz drives. But even they didn't catch on since there was no standard, which is still the case today. I don't see why Dell's little gadget -- which doesn't even work unless a USB port is available, should do any better.

Finally... USB is already passe. Firewire is the next big thing in external interfaces.

Post  44218  by  oldCADuser       OT: You may be right...
Post  44219  by  ljpit       ot: inspector: probably unintentionally, but the a
Post  44220  by  Inspector_32       OT: Pacemaker, don't be too upset

Post  44221  by  pacemakernj       Reply
OCU, I accept that, Pace. eom.

Post  44222  by  pacemakernj       OT: Maniati, I've noticed. But what about this tho
Post  44223  by  maniati       OT: pace: Well, I'm thinking along the same lines.
Post  44224  by  pacemakernj       OT: Inspector, I really don't want to debate Clint
Post  44225  by  maniati       OT: inspector: That won't happen until companies s
Post  44226  by  pacemakernj       OT: Maniati, TD learned at the foot of one George
Post  44227  by  maniati       OT: OCU: You certainly have raised a number of int
Post  44228  by  oldCADuser       OT: Sorry...
Post  44229  by  clo       OT:Oh Maniati, if that applies for Clinton,

Post  44230  by  uponroof       Reply
Roger Bentley Arnold

General Comments

With the consumer beginning to give way in the US and the debt overhang in the US, Japan and Germany most traders and analysts are concerned and looking out for the "trigger" that will begin the rapid downward cascading of the worlds markets; both equity and debt.

That surprise would probably have to come from the US, Japan or Germany. There are many possible scenarios that could be the catalyst and we have reviewed most of them over the course of the past year.

They would most certainly involve a crisis of confidence leading to US consumer capitulation, unemployment rising, stocks falling, the cost of capital increasing, revenues and earnings falling, debt defaults increasing, cash flow velocity falling, currencies depreciating, gold and silver increasing, municipal bond defaults increasing.

The probability of something like this occurring is increasing rather than decreasing as the world economies continue to slow and the problems, primarily in the worlds capital markets, are not being adequately addressed by governments and central banks.

The next question is how bad will it get?

Again, as we discussed last week, this will be determined by how governments respond.

If the response involves tax increases as it does in Germany the result will be bad.

The Japanese have announced intentions to cut taxes and although this may help them it is already too late to avoid a collapse of the Japanese economy.

The Key

The US has elections coming up that will be pivotal in determining the fiscal response to the economy in the US. If the democrats successfully take both houses of congress and either stop the tax cuts or worse force taxes up while government spending is also increasing the stage could be set for a 1930's style depression.

The only proper response economically anywhere in the world to the current geo-synchronous slow down is massive tax cuts world wide. All other debates over monetary and fiscal policy initiatives are secondary.

Without across the board federal tax cuts into this slow down the downside will be much worse and there is no upside.

I am not as concerned about state and municipal taxing and spending. Although it too is important it is also secondary to federal tax cuts.

The following excerpt is from commentary by Jim Puplava this past Monday at

Roger's Comments:

I think Jims comments are very good.

So what comes next?

I suspect the next downward leg will be triggered by some unseen event of the ten-sigma variety that gives most day traders, speculators and complacent investors a wake up call. This could trigger a capitulation liquidation phase in the market that gets most investors’ attention. It should take stock prices down to fair value and initiate a series of monetary and fiscal developments out of Washington to help turn things around. That could give us a rally that may last 3-6 months as markets rally based on assumptions that governments can help resurrect markets. It could be similar to what happened to the markets after the “New Deal” in the 1930s. When it is realized these numerous fiscal and monetary policies don’t work, like they didn’t work in the 30’s, the final leg of the bear market should fall into place. The final leg or third phase of this bear market will take stock prices down to bargain levels. It is when stocks are selling at give-away prices that the pros will come in and start buying and holding longer-term. We are a long way off from that time. My advice is this: unless you are adept at trading and have thorough knowledge of technical analysis, or have a very clear understanding of fundamentals, you should stay out of this storm and head for a safe harbor. Even if you have a good understanding of technical analysis, it won’t save you from a ten-sigma event. Ten-sigma events don’t show up on the charts until they occur. There is no software program, charting package or mathematical formula that can tell you when they will occur. All you will ever know is their probability of occurrence. If there were a program that could tell you when and where they would come from, LTCM would still be in business.

Post  44235  by  oldCADuser       OT: Man, I didn't expect you to agree 100%, howeve
Post  44236  by  pmcw       OT: Not being a Constitutional scholar, I don't di

Post  44237  by  pmcw       Reply
XICO, It sounds like the rumors were right - Lou was more excited and with reason. Parts designed by AIP are already back and being tested. This is months ahead of the schedule I expected. The Served Available Market for 2003 will be $1B versus $250M in 2002. This also assumes NO GROWTH in the total semi market. Most forecasts I've read suggest 20%+ growth in high performance analog in 2003.

Here's the next rumor. Rodman and Renshaw have initiated coverage with "out perform" and a target of $6. Pikers!

Regards, pmcw

Post  44238  by  oldCADuser       OT: Actually...
Post  44239  by  maniati       OT: I think you both missed my point. "Checks

Post  44240  by  pmcw       Reply
At the Pru conference, MCHP is forecasting 39% revenue growth and 42% profit growth in its next fiscal year (starting April 2003). This is an increase in their projections of roughly 10% for profit and 6% for revenue. Regards, pmcw

Post  44241  by  pmcw       OT: maniati, I didn't miss the point at all. I th
Post  44242  by  oldCADuser       OT: While that may be true,...
Post  44243  by  tinljhtkh       OT: Just an observation!
Post  44244  by  maniati       OT: OCU: Sorry, I didn't see this post (44235) unt
Post  44245  by  pmcw       OT: Wanna see a new political low? Watch the film

Post  44246  by  pacemakernj       Reply
OT, OCU, imho, the failure of the N. Korea accord is without question a major shortcoming. The bigger question here is whether both he and BC left the world safer than when they came in. The answer to that is a resounding NO! Allowing N. Korea to pursue and obtain nuclear weapons and providing the Chinese the means and technology to deliver ICBM's to America and lord knows what else is disastrous.
But I am sure Carter had his heart in the right place. Unfortunately liberals like him forget that the people they are dealing with are ruthless, murderous, tyrants and cannot be trusted. Pace.

Post  44249  by  wilful       OT: Ashcroft out of favour with conservatives?
Post  44251  by  oldCADuser       OT: This news item just in:

Post  44252  by  jeffbas       Reply
oldCAD, Lautenberg was NOT the Dems first choice as a replacement for Torricelli in NJ (as he reportedly was not very popular in the party). The papers reported that several other first choices turned it down, probably to their regret, as Forrester has since run a poor campaign (lack of money?).

Post  44253  by  pacemakernj       OT: PMCW, I am glad you said it. I've been listeni

Post  44256  by  jeffbas       Reply
"the Republicans would not have done the same thing"

maniati, in fact, the Republicans in NJ DID NOT do the same thing. The outcome we have now, with Lautenberg handily ahead, was entirely predictable. Yet the Republicans did not at the time request a matching "do-over" they would surely have been entitled to - replacing the unknown Forrester with Tom Kean Sr. or Christie Whitman. I for one would have loved to have seen the Republicans call the NJ Court on the issue by proposing exactly that.

Post  44257  by  pacemakernj       OT: Tin, I'll try and be brief...
Post  44258  by  pacemakernj       OT: Wilful, I hadn't heard that. But imo, the fast
Post  44259  by  jeffbas       OT: I agree with MD on the DC snipers. Ashcroft ha
Post  44261  by  uponroof       OT:pace...pep rallys and media engineering
Post  44264  by  Decomposed       ot: Jesse Ventura...
Post  44265  by  tinljhtkh       OT: It wasn't
Post  44266  by  uponroof       OT:Ventura on CNN in a few minutes...eom

Post  44267  by  ljpit       Reply
nice move by SANM today. eom.


Post  44268  by  motordavid       OT: Is this mooseguy

Post  44269  by  oldCADuser       Reply
Has anyone started a pool yet predicting if the Fed is going to take action next Wednesday and cut rates or not? I guess the consensus on the street is a 1/4 point cut and I guess I'll go along with that as well.

However I have a question: Does anyone think that Tuesday's election results will influence, one way the other, the voting of the Fed members on Wednesday? Is there any election outcome scenario which could cause the Fed to move more or less aggressively?


Post  44270  by  maniati       Reply
OCU: We've been over this before: the answer is no, and no.

As for a rate cut, I'd say there was zero chance of one up until about two weeks ago. Now, there's a decent chance of 1/4, but no more than that. Friday will be a telling day.

Post  44271  by  Briguy       Reply
Wellstone Funeral Was a Disgrace...

What a shameful memorial. That the Minnesota Democratic party would exploit this memorial and turn it into a disgraceful shameful pep rally is not suprising. The Democrats are fighters who will try and win at ALL COSTS! The ends justify the means with these people. They will lie, cheat, steal and exploit if they have to, just to keep control of power. What is suprising is that the Wellstone kids would let it happen. One would think that when your dad and mom and brother dies, you would feel pain, anger, and sadness, sort of how I feel considering my dad died last week. Instead, what I witnessed makes me feel embarrassed to be a Minnesotan. The jeering and the boos for those people like Lott, Grams, and other Republicans, who simply came to pay their respects to a colleague, was disgusting. I don't ever remember going to a memorial or watching one on TV where guests were booed and jeered. Holy cow, no wonder VP Cheney didn't feel bad about not coming.

Last nite was a three and one half hour campaign commercial that was shameless and dispicable. Democrats should be ashamed! Last nite broke the straw, and yet the Democrats are justifying it for electoral gain. Unbelievable! The good news is, the radio waves have been filled with outraged Minnesotan's, many who are Democrats, who are just as outraged as I am. Our Governor walked out because he was disgusted. Even the head of the Minnesota DNC apologized. The TV stations and radio stations have been flooded with angry and disgusted people. People all over the country are voicing disgust.

And that poll you all have been reading about from the extremely liberal Star Tribune showing Mondale ahead of Coleman by 7 pts? If you believe that, I have some ocean front property in Kansas I'll sell you for a buck! That poll was taken yesterday, before the political rally, er, memorial last nite. You can kiss that poll good-bye! Minnesotan's are ticked off, and rightly so. Oh, by the way, this is the same liberal paper that kept showing Humphrey ahead of Ventura 4 years ago. We all know what happened there.

The bottom line is the Republicans were used and set up by the disgraceful DNC. It's an outrage that this Kahn guy would name the Republicans in attendance and implore them to help Mondale win. That is a classic set-up! My Republican friends simply came to pay their respects to a colleague, and were used!

The funny thing is, I would be equally outraged if Wellstone were a Republican. Last nite was no memorial, it was an outrageous campaign ploy and I pray like mad it backfires in the DNC power machine who did this.


O.K., now that I got that off my chest, I'm back:)

Post  44272  by  Briguy       Reply
Correction, Wellstone MEMORIAL was a disgrace.eom.

Post  44275  by  maniati       OT: wilful: No, I don't think so. It certainly was
Post  44277  by  pacemakernj       OT: Roof, well said. Could this Haitian immigrant

Post  44278  by  pacemakernj       Reply
OCU, I have been hoping for rate cuts since June. Been wrong now for what 3 times. I think they will. That said I do not think the outcome will have an effect one way or the other. The one thing the Fed does not want to appear is political. Pace.

Post  44279  by  pacemakernj       OT: Briguy, hope all went well with your father. W

Post  44280  by  garhart       Reply
How very strange, I don't seem to recall the same sentiment being expressed when Mrs Clinton was booed by the firefighters not so long ago.Let me cut and paste a bit of your usage: Unbelievable! The ends justify the means with these people. Last nite was a three and one half hour campaign commercial that was shameless and dispicable.Last nite was a three and one half hour campaign commercial that was shameless and dispicable.what I witnessed makes me feel embarrassed to be a Minnesotan. . People all over the country are voicing disgust. I would be equally outraged if Wellstone were a Republican./ I saved the best for last/I pray like mad it backfires in the DNC power machine who did this. /I am so very glad you were able to get that off your chest/
I am the only one who see a sickening double standard here ?
Please do not make the mistake of thinking I omitted OT as an oversite.

Post  44281  by  kduff       Reply
Briguy, I'm very sorry to hear you lost your dad.
My sympathies to you and your family,

Post  44282  by  kduff       OT: Garhart, Why don't you go back and read briguy

Post  44283  by  clo       Reply
U.S. Treasury Secretary Tours High Point, N.C.-Area Furniture Factories

Oct 30, 2002 (High Point Enterprise - Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News via
COMTEX) -- Officials with the furniture industry had a first-hand chance Tuesday
to make their pitch to one of the top economic officials in America.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill came to High Point and Davidson County to
tour a pair of furniture factories and have a luncheon meeting with executives
in the furnishings industry.

After touring the Henredon Brevard Road Plant in south High Point Tuesday
afternoon, O'Neill said he was impressed with the craftsmanship of workers on
the line.

"We need to keep inventing and using the ingenuity of people to compete,"
O'Neill said, acknowledging the pressure on domestic furniture manufacturers
from overseas producers.

O'Neill, who had a private luncheon meeting at the String & Splinter Club in
downtown High Point with industry executives, said he has gained a better
understanding of the challenges facing the U.S. furniture industry.

O'Neill, who also toured Lexington Plant No. 2 in Davidson County, pledged to
talk with fellow White House officials about trading issues and environmental
regulations that furniture representatives said are hampering the industry.

O'Neill, who acknowledged that he'd never had the opportunity to tour an
upper-end furniture manufacturing facility before Tuesday, said he understands
the critical role the furniture industry plays in North Carolina.

The combination of imports and a soft economy have taken a toll on
furniture-related jobs.

The furnishings industry lost 6,000 more jobs in September alone, according to
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as well as 18,000 jobs in the past 12
There have been major layoff announcements in the area by Thomasville
Furniture Industries and Lexington Home Brands in recent months related to
import product issues.

The bureau's statistics show that the industry has lost 30,000 jobs nationwide
since June 2001.

The desire to protect the industry's domestic manufacturing base was a theme at
the luncheon, said Jackie Hirschhaut, vice president of public relations with
the American Furniture Manufacturers Association.

Hirschhaut said O'Neill and 13 presidents from a variety of furniture companies
had a "candid, cordial discussion" during the hourlong luncheon.

The meeting gave the executives a chance to "educate a senior policymaker" on
the furniture industry, said Chris Pearce, director of congressional and
regulatory affairs for the AFMA.

Hirschhaut said that furniture industry officials hope the meeting with O'Neill
will pay long-term dividends by "opening a door at a high level" within the
federal government.

After O'Neill left the Henredon plant, one of the workers said he appreciated
his visit.

"It means the government is thinking about us, thinking about the jobs here,"
said Ben Chadwick of High Point, who has worked for eight years as an
upholsterer at the factory.

By Paul B. Johnson
To see more of the High Point Enterprise, or to subscribe to the newspaper, go

(c) 2002, High Point Enterprise, N.C. Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune
Business News.


*** end of story ***

Post  44284  by  Arkural       Reply
OT-Maniati-For some reason, nearly every time I see that name Daschle, I am brought to an image of a type of lil' dog whose name escapes me----the doggy in question could be a dirty one, but, I can't be sure. Either way, the image often reminds me of the sausages hanging in a butcher shop..............of all things. (^.^)


Perhaps, total chaos is already taking place but has not yet fully manifested into a dimension that is fully visible to everyone. :-)

Post  44285  by  Arkural       Reply
OT-Decomposed-Thx for your response. Already passe', eh. Well, from your information it seems I'll just continue to wait until I do a complete upgrade of everything. Maybe by then it'll all be easier, standardized and smaller, smaller than maybe a thumbnail, ya think?

Cd's seem quite antiquated-never mind floppy's!-when I measure it up to prototype stuff I read about at least 15 yrs ago, heck I'd bet a three legged buffalo nickel, cd's were passe' even back then. . .Talk about milkin' it baby.

Post  44286  by  Arkural       Reply
Btw, Decomposed, thx for your work w/Summary. eom

Post  44287  by  jeffbas       OT: Briguy, it is absolutely appalling that Republ
Post  44288  by  sen_hillary_clinton       OT: OCU: That's because the wise men and the virgi

Post  44289  by  Arkural       Reply
pmcw-I will assume this is not a typo. :-)

"...$1B versus $250M in 2002..."

Post  44290  by  pmcw       Reply
Ark, You read it right! ;o) Regards, pmcw

Post  44291  by  maniati       OT: Ark: I believe you're thinking of a "dach

Post  44292  by  pmcw       Reply
maniati, I don't know about that. I've been predicting a November rate cut for some time and even gave it a 90% chance roughly a month ago. There's plenty of reasons.

We all know the economy isn't any great ball of fire and the lending institutions need as much leverage as they can get. Add to this the ultimate feel good after the election plus the holiday shopping season and I feel a rate cut is nearly a sure thing.

Watch as the 6th approaches. Mr. Market will start saying "Mr. Greenspan, we be good. The rally was just a little thing and we're pulling back now. We need the rate cut soooooo bad. Please, please give us what we need."

In other words, I look for a pull back (temporary) and even if he doesn't give the cut he'll give some reassurance and we'll rally on after the 6th - at least until Thanksgiving week.

Regards, pmcw

Post  44293  by  Arkural       Reply
maniati-Whaddya know, so......that is what they call it!?

Many thanks and since it is near Alls Hallow.:.:.:

Hat tip your way!

Abe Lincoln Log


Thx, pmcw.

Post  44294  by  uponroof       Reply
Richard Russell this evening:

"...A lot of people are hoping that the worst is over, and that this bear market is history. Unfortunately, it's not going to be that easy. The problem, at least the number one problem, is that stocks are still expensive. As I noted in a recent site, the new S&P "core earnings" for the S&P are $18.48. On that basis the S&P is selling for a ridiculous 48 times earnings. You want to be more conservative? Then take the S&P P/E as listed in Barron's at 33 times earnings. That's also ridiculous. The simple fact is that stocks remain hugely overvalued.

My guess is that almost every class and type of asset will be hurt. I've taken refuge in bonds and gold. Bonds because I think the Fed is going to drive rates down in Japan-like fashion. So far I've been right. But with the money that the bonds are throwing off I put into T-bills and gold.

Why gold? Because if this nation lapses into deflation, debt is going to be crushed, wiped out. People will be looking for something that is immune to bankruptcy. That something is gold, the only financial assets that can't be bankrupted because gold is pure money, cash. Gold has a 5000 year history of being accepted as real money. Nothing else qualifies. Nothing takes the place of gold.

But what if the Fed is successful in inflating us out of danger-- I don't think this can happen. But if it does happen, then the dollar will buy progressively less and gold will tend to hold is purchasing power. Let me put it this way -- either way you can't afford not to have gold. It's as simple as that.


uponroof- CNBC today offered a rumor about the Treasury contemplating a flat tax in place of income tax. If this comes to pass as an actual consideration by the big money mahoffs, you can be sure they are not taking this little 'double dip', as they like to call it, lightly. Changing the tax code would qualify as major surgery...and most likely boost the he!! out of the economy...until folks realize we are not manufacturing tax code books for export. Speaking of ISM, Friday could be nasty. Then again,... there's an election around the corner. November should be wild.

Good Luck


Post  44295  by  pmcw       Reply
roof, Don't tell Russel this, but deflation is bad for gold. Regards, pmcw

Post  44296  by  maniati       Reply
pmcw: Well, if there had actually been a Fed meeting a month ago when you were predicting a cut, there would have been no cut. :-) There's no way the Fed was ready to cut rates a month ago. Any change in sentiment is more recent than that. Just last week AG was still singing the praises of the wondrous productivity growth over the last 12 months.

And the recent consumer sentiment numbers also play their role in helping to tip the balance in favor of a cut, though that's not the only thing, and Friday could still be important. But the Fed is not going to cut rates just because people want a boost for the stock market. In August, Wall Street wanted a rate cut, and didn't get it. In September, Wall Street was screaming for a rate cut, and even priced it into futures as I recall, and still didn't get it.

The relationship between Wall Street and the Fed is not symmetrical. Investors hang on the Fed's every word, but the Fed doesn't spend nearly the time thinking about the stock market as stock investors spend thinking about the Fed.

You're absolutely right that the market will once again scream for a cut. And, this time, it might happen. But, it's not going to happen just because the market was asking for a cut; that is an insufficient reason for the Fed. If it happens, it will be because of the status of retail sales, corporate investment, and unemployment.

Post  44297  by  pmcw       Reply
maniati, I think you read me wrong. I predicted the chances of a November (not October) cut at 90% in September. I've been saying this (not at 90%) since early to mid summer. For months I've been saying AG has been saving his ammunition.

The fall data was, IMO, predictable. I even said before the October lows that they would likely be the lows for many stocks for the foreseeable future. I'm still waiting for specific data, but so far I've learned that the confidence numbers are collected during the first half of a month. The world looked a lot worse as we saw the capitulation of early October, but they do make for a nice excuse to cut rates.

I'm not saying that this cut will be because of the market. I only said that the market will beg as they only know how - dip and bow to the king. There are and have been plenty of good rationalizations and reasons for a cut, but as I stated during the past months, it wasn't appropriate then. Heck it may not be now, but we'll get it to lift spirits if for no other reason.

Don't get me wrong. There are real problems that, IMO, a cut will address. There is spending coming on the horizon and we need all we can get to increase employment. There are banks that will have to swallow some huge bad debt and they need all the profits they can gather. BTW, some banks are turning in all time record profits. There is government deficit to finance and there are also consumers to keep alive. If worded correctly, the cut will seem like just what we need to keep us going (not correct a downward path).

IMO, AG did exactly what he wanted to do - all the details - and was smart to hold the cut for the day after the elections. He's got everyone very hungry and himself with a poker face so no one really knows what he'll do next. Well, almost no one.

Regards, pmcw

Post  44298  by  garhart       Reply
Pace, you seem to take great enjoyment out of the time you spend here. That is good. I wish I could loan you some comfort.

Post  44299  by  uponroof       Reply
pmcw..I thought that would get a rise out of you as I am familiar with your thoughts on the matter. Russell is not too shabby when it comes to predicting general market direction, but we shall have to wait to see about gold and deflation.

Should be interesting to watch these next few months unfold and whether those pesky indicators get any better over the Holidays. I know I am spending less this Christmas. We usually give the men a 1-2K bonus, a honey baked ham and a bottle of wine. This year we're giving them 10 bucks, a chicken salad sandwich, and a can of beer....just kidding, actually it's been a very good year for us.

Calling for a colder than normal winter here in the northeast...if precipitation turns out to be above normal this could be the start of another good year. Ice storms just destroy roofs.

Good Luck


Post  44302  by  ttalknet2       Reply
roof: Russell is among several in the camp I'm following. I don't subscribe to his newsletters, so thanks for posting some excerpts.

Here's a public Russell article from Oct 23rd:

In addition to gold, Mr. Russell recommends bonds, but I've been buying a few bank trust preferreds (BTPs). These are weird birds. The banks always issue BTP equities at $25. They start at about 8% or 9% dividend. And the stock prices seldom stray from the IPO price. Easy income. Good place for cash during a bear mkt, especially in IRA accounts.

It's much like owning a bond, but it's a preferred stock. The primary risk is rising interest rates. (Or maybe a banking crisis?)

BTPs were recommended by one of my brokers. I got the BTPs when priced, when issued... essentially at IPO w/o commission.

Stock prices always start at $25/shr. The last minute jockeying has always been about 'pricing' the dividend payout, not the stock price.

BTPs hardly ever trade. When I asked how difficult it would be to sell, I was told my broker usually has many clients who would buy them. They are like bonds, after all. And my own sales probably would not need to be sent into the open market: In-house trade.

Strange, but true. In the meantime, 9% is sweet. :-)

Some tickers: SBIBP, LFINP, CNB_pa
(Sterling Bankshares, Local Financial, Colonial Bancgroup)

In a similar vein, I've held Capstead Mortgage Pfd (CMO_pb) for over 10 years at 10% yield payable MONTHLY. It's callable any time, but I'm okay with that aspect now.

For the last 5 months I've been accumulating gold and silver bullion coins, a few graded gold coins, and a few ungraded collectible silver coins. I haven't bit on the gold and silver mining stocks yet, but they are certainly on my radar!

You also might want to follow Jim Sinclair:

....Talk On

Post  44303  by  Briguy       Reply

Take no offense my friend, but is that honestly your retort? That the same outrage wasn't expressed when Hillary got booed? You are joking I hope?

First of all, firefighters in general support the AFL-CIO, a very partisan Democratic supported union made up of many organizations, including firefighters...

In fairness, firefighters overwhelmingly support Democrats, not Republicans. Is it an oxy-moron that Democrat supporters such as firefighters would boo a Democrat?

I'll tell you my take on it. Mrs. Hillary Rotten Clintoon got booed because she showed utter disrespect for our President during his speech to the nation after September 11. She was rolling her eyes. She was clearly angry. She couldn't even bring herself to be a true patriot, let partisan politics go, and show some respect towards our President. That is why Clintooon got booed! She brought it on herself!

Ah, you know what? What is the point?! I know you're a lurker here and I'm very glad you're here, but no sense even arguing about it. I said my peace. It's how I feel. And if you want to take issue with it, it's a free country. But you know what? Life is too damn short.

Post  44306  by  Briguy       Reply

I say vote them ALL out! Democrat's and Republican's! While I agree more with the Republican platform than the Democrat platform, I'm growing very tired of both parties.

I think I'm going to check into the Libertarian Party.

Anyhoo, those that make the arguement that Republican's would have done the same thing are ignorant. Three prominent Republican past and current members of congress have died in the last 10 years and you never saw the families and the Republican party exploit their memorials and use it as an opportunity to campaign and pander!

When Nixon died, did the family or supporters get up and pound their fist and urge Democrats to change parties and help a Republican continue Nixon's fight? Did Republicans boo the Democrat's who came to honor the guy and pay their respects?

It's crazy! Anyone who defends last nites behavior is...I don't even know what to say!

Post  44308  by  maniati       Reply
pmcw: I've read your last post several times, and it leaves me with the impression that the rate-setting process is somehow shrouded in mystery or even gamesmanship. I don't know if that is your intent, but you certainly don't make it sound straightforward at all. But, just because we don't know exactly what the Fed is thinking, that does not mean it's an elaborate game.

AG is an economist. They have a whole staff of analysts who are economists. They don't pay a lot of attention to the stock market. They do look at economic indicators. What is not straightforward and what is non-trivial and challenging is interpreting the data and arriving at a consensus decision. But, if and when the data points them towards a decision that a rate change is in order, then they will make the change. If it's August, and they think, based on the data, that the economy needs a rate cut, then they will cut in August. If they decide to wait, it's because they have reason to think the economy will improve even without the cut. So, it is not the case that they are expecting the economy to stagnate or deteriorate and yet putting off a rate cut despite what they know.

We saw the Fed do the same thing in reverse some years back. Rather than raise rates on the first sign of inflation, they waited to see if the inflation was going to persist.

But in either case, it's not as though the Fed has some future date planned when it knows it will raise/lower rates. It can't know, and that's because the rate decision will be based on all the information available at the time, and the Fed can't know with certainty what that data is going to look like in the future.

When they decide to wait before taking an action, it's not just for the sake of waiting; it's because they think there is the possibility of the economy righting itself without the rate change. If they didn't think that was a real possibility, then they would not wait.

Back at the beginning of the year, AG offered a detailed explanation of all the causal links in his reasoning, and he explained where he thought the uncertainties lay. So, clearly, he recognized that things might or might not go the way he expected/hoped. He never said the economy would or would not recover. Rather, he laid out what needed to happen to produce a recovery, and these are the things the Fed continues to monitor.

So, I don't see how you could say that the Fed was planning on a November cut all along when even the Fed didn't know that. It's not as though the Fed decided that August was a bad time for a cut, but November would be a good time. No, in August the Fed was hoping that consumer demand still had enough oomph to boost corporate profits, and it wasn't convinced a cut was needed at all. The Fed has been hoping to hell that demand would pick up and give profits that boost. They were hoping that holiday retailing would be better than it has turned out. They certainly did not decide months ago that retailing was going to go into the toilet, but that they were going to wait until November to do something about it. A rate cut in November isn't going to do much for holiday retailing.