Table On-Topic Summary - 04-Oct-2002
A compilation of this board's financial/economic posts From 44498 to 44588

Post  44498  by  Decomposed       OT: Table ON TOPIC SUMMARY Nov 2, 2002
Post  44499  by  Decomposed       OT: Table ON TOPIC SUMMARY Nov 3, 2002

Post  44500  by  lkorrow       Reply
Roof, I used to look at trimtabs now and then but stopped when their data fell behind. Looks like it's a lot closer to current now. Their "liquidity" page for Oct 21 has some interesting insights on who's buying this market, etc.:

Post  44501  by  lkorrow       Reply
Roof, shoot, does that mean gold will dip?

Post  44502  by  jeffbas       Reply
It took me until the end to find out the motive for the dire forecasts - selling a newsletter.

My pet peeve as usual was the statement, "the cost of home ownership relative to renting is at the highest level for the past 12 years". Considering the drop in interest rates, I believe the cost of ownership probably is at the lowest level for the past 12 years, except in the few markets which have had unusual price increases. I was told just yesterday by someone who used to be in the mortgage business that the demand for homes (in our area) is being driven precisely be what house prices non-tax deductible rents convert to in the way of tax advantaged mortgage payments (plus RE taxes) at today's interest rates. (Two wage earners making $75,000 each CAN afford a $500,000 house at mortgage rates under 6%.)

However, a house being affordable does not make it a good investment, as these low rates are supporting prices that will not be sustained when the economy eventually recovers, and rates rise. (It would be interesting to see what has happened to Japanese housing prices relative to their interest rates since their stock market peak.)

Post  44503  by  srudek       ot maniati: I HAD completely missed your last post

Post  44504  by  lkorrow       Reply
ljpit, I would have liked to see CO2 also. Don't know if it would track the CO map. I thought I saw something like that once, maybe it was a NASA site, not sure. I was about to say it would be nice to have the speech to go along with the slides and I found the audio for it. Tomorrow! :-)

In looking around that site, found this one too, "The Quantum Mechanics of Global Warming." Wow. The math is totally beyond me, but there are some really interesting charts and some of his notes are cool.

Post  44505  by  lkorrow       Reply
Pace, doesn't sound likely, some people will try anything. The affluence angle doesn't either, but you never know. :-)

Post  44506  by  lkorrow       Reply
Pace, I wonder what the impact of the Muslims going to a gold dinar will be. Seems like that could throw a monkey wrench into the whole system. . .

Post  44507  by  srudek       ot pmcw: thx mucho! I had no idea about google sup
Post  44508  by  Decomposed       ot: maniati,

Post  44509  by  srudek       Reply
lk: $down->gold up. The likely decline of the dollar is, imo, the strongest thing gold has going for it. If the dollar goes down, the value of gold denominated in dollars will go up. Don't necessarily expect gold to go up immediately if the dollar weakens, but the eventual result is a near certainty.

Post  44510  by  Decomposed       ot: Lkorrow,
Post  44511  by  lkorrow       OT: jbennet, news today, Iran arrested around 100

Post  44512  by  lkorrow       Reply
Decomposed, Maniati,

I thought the sail was supposed to catch hydrogen to fuel a spacecraft. You are right about solar not making a dent right now. Interestingly, I saw an example of a solar collectors made that could be cut to any size. Really light and thin. Who knows where technology will take us tomorrow.

The fusion discussion was interesting. What other technologies could be applied on a large scale if they ever pan out? Anything else in the pipleline?

You guys must have missed the NASA announcement. They're funding some guy building an elevator to space. I'm serious, the Tower of Babel only different!

Post  44513  by  lkorrow       Reply
sr, my AU/NEM's been recovering, it had been up 25% and dropped back, I hope it keeps going, I'd like my balance sheet to look a little better by year end! :-)

Post  44514  by  lkorrow       Reply
Decomposed, a little, they have no dome, i. e., protection. A propblem can't be contained. We tried to get them to close down the rest around y2k, but no go, they wanted billions from us. Also, our new technology's a lot better now, at least so I have heard.

Post  44515  by  ttalknet2       Reply
jeffbas, re your excerpt "the cost of home ownership relative to renting is at the highest level for the past 12 years".

I'm no expert, not by far, but to me this phrase means that homeowners keep taking on more debt and refinanced mortgages, while commercial landlords find it increasingly hard to find renters who can pay at a rate that covers PITI costs. It looks like a mixed message, but...

The "cost of home ownership" can be interpreted in many ways, for sure. However, renters can't default on loans. But owners do default on mortgages. Renters pay rising rates in a bubble, but maybe the bubble is leaking some gas.

On a risk-adjusted basis, isn't it cheaper to rent when you might lose your job??? Conversely, if you paid $200K to own your home, are you sure it will be worth $150K in a year or two when your job is lost? If you're willing to risk 25% today, then maybe the housing market is just as acceptable as the stock market. Is that the new "cost of home ownership?"

If we argue a supply/demand scenario, I'd say the renters will win in the short term... especially if we are looking at a deflationary economy. Falling rents? Who'd have thunk it, yet the mortgaged masses are locked into their payments while hoping they don't lose their jobs.

It seems like everyone is in denial about the housing bubble. Nobody wants to admit the housing market can go down. Geez, after all, it never has gone down. Beware.

jeffbas, I'm not challenging you to a data duel. Far from it. I'm just trying to understand the state of the economy, the nation, and the world. What is the big picture and how do we do cope with it? And when the details are clear, what clues do they provide for our financial health?

Regards to you and all.

Post  44516  by  srudek       Reply
lk: more on gold vs. $

Continuing on from my previous post, the most optimal scenario for gold is:

(1) if 1 oz gold is currently worth $320 and dollar falls 10% vs. basket of other major currencies (euro, yen, SF, etc.)

(2) 1 oz gold becomes valued at (1/.9)x$320 = $355 US.

(3) However, there is lots of reason to think that if gold goes above about $340 US then all sorts of "short" sales on gold will have to be covered by J.P. Morgan, etc. due to various hedging contracts, gold leases, etc.

(4) So . . . maybe gold goes to at least $400 as all hell breaks loose and various parties scramble to cover.

I don't know the realities of how much a rise of POG to over $340 would cause a mass, forced covering so I can't say if a resultant $400 is too low or too high a target. I've read this scenario and read, in particular, that $340 is the "magic number" from a large number of credible gold experts. The spike in price seems reasonable to me, as it I am convinced that JPM, et. al. really do have a massive short interest and the central bank gold "loans" and massive hedging by Barrick etc. is a matter of record.

Post  44517  by  ttalknet2       Reply
lkorrow: re the Gold Dinar

Read it. I think you'll appreciate it.

Post  44518  by  Decomposed       Reply

Perhaps this will help. (Blame me for any typos. I'm having to type this in, and it's getting late.)

From Money, Banking and the Economy by Thomas Mayer, James S. Duesenberry and Robert Z. Aliber.


The Fed can exercise good control over the monetary base through its open market operations by offsetting changes in the market factors, such as float. Does this mean that it also has good control over the supply of money? This depends upon its ability to predict changes in the money multiplier. If the money multiplier is stable, or otherwise highly predictable, the Fed could attain its target for the money supply very easily. If it wants the money supply to increase by, say, $10 billion, and it knows that the money multiplier applicable to the base is 2.5, it would simply raise the base by $4 billion. But is the money multiplier so highly predictable?

As Figure 11.1 shows
[you'll have to take this on faith! - De], it has been declining at a fairly steady rate. The fact that the money multiplier is declining rather than constant does not create a problem since the Fed can make allowance for a steady decline. The real issue is whether ther eis so much erratic variation, so that the Fed cannot predict accurately how the money supply will vary as it changes the monetary base.

The relation between changes in the adjusted base and changes in the M-1 is a relatively close one. But is it close enough? What is involved here is a rather subtle trick of arithmetic. Assume that the Fed predicts that the money multiplier for the month will be 2.500, and it actually turns out to be 2.525. Such an error of one percent looks like a very good forecast, but it may be large enough to get the Fed into trouble. It means that for a given size of the base the money supply is one percent greater than the Fed predicted. This is more serious than it seems. Suppose the Fed is aiming at an annual money growth rate of 6 percent, which is approximately 0.5 percent per month. Now due to the error in estimating the money multiplier all of a sudden money is growing at a 1.5 percent rate this month, three times as fast as intended. It is growing at a more than 18 percent annual rate, which, if continued, would be highly inflationary. Hence, despite its "accurate" estimate of the money multiplier the Fed may be subject to much criticism.

I don't know if that helps. It sounds to me like material to support your contention that the whole thing is a big guessing game.

Post  44519  by  srudek       Reply
ttalk: re housing prices & rents.

I assure you housing prices can fall quite precipitously from here in many regions; I may not be a stock market expert, but I know residential real estate on a fair market value vs. rent basis as I've spent 25 years + as an investor & property manager. No slight intended, but I don't think Jeffbas has much experience with residential real estate valuation and real estate market cycles. I wouldn't argue with him about how long you're likely to live, however. ;-)

Here in Marin county, as of September housing prices were up 10% while rents were down more than 7% -- rents are still falling and, last I heard, median prices are still rising. The house I live in cost $500K in 1995 and now would fetch around $2,000,000. Just normal appreciation, you know. Nothing to be worried about.

Post  44520  by  Decomposed       ot: Lkorrow,

Post  44521  by  ttalknet2       Reply
srudedk: About a year ago a US dollar bought 1/265th of an ounce of gold. Today the US dollar buys about 1/320th of an ounce of gold. Soon the US dollar could buy 1/400th of an ounce.

One must decide: is this about gold or about the dollar? While both are tied at the hip, the scenario becomes more obvious every day.

RE: msg 44519. Thanks for the followup about real estate. Let's see how many folks rise up in righteous indignation. ;-) I'm truly interested in the opposing arguments, but that's not to say I'm equipped to engage in a detailed debate. My observations are, well, just observations. I defer to your experience.

Best regards.

Post  44522  by  Decomposed       ot: Lkorrow, Elevator to Space

Post  44523  by  srudek       Reply
pmcw: buy low sell high vs. buy, buy, buy

You and I have disagreed a few times on market valuation and strategy for investing in markets. What I've attempted to express -- unsuccessfully -- is not that stocks should never be bought, but that their buying and selling CAN be successfully timed and that timing the market is a much better strategy than justing robotically buying, buying, buying. I've repeatedly said PE ratios and dividend yields are vitally important things to follow even if, as Jeffbas pointed out, PE doesn't necessarily tag the exact bottom of the cycle.

Patience shouldn't mean buying continually and waiting patiently for your dribble of "investments" to justify its purchase price "on average"; it should mean waiting patiently for your vehicle to justify its purchase price before buying -- and then buying two or more decades worth of stock over a period of perhaps a few years, holding, and unloading as valuations become frothy. When a vehicle is overvalued, I contend it's a vastly better strategy to just sit out the market, accumulating funds in something which is comparatively safe, planning to enter massively when the time is right. In this way, principal isn't being unnecessarily "gambled"; the key to really great investment for non-geniuses is don't risk principal!

I just ran across this article which elucidates my preferred strategy very well. As I've said so many times, this is a treacherous time to be "investing" long term, the month of October notwithstanding. (By the way, you might find the 10/4 article from this site, entitled "Trading Volatility Ratios", interesting. It nailed the October rally! I almost posted it at the time, which would have been a great call in retrospect, but I don't trust technical analysis enough to bet money on it.) Anyway, maybe this will get my point across (although I doubt it;-):
In a nutshell, the message of the markets encapsulated in the graph of Shiller’s landmark data is this…

If you buy general US stocks when they are undervalued, a P/E near 7, you are likely to reap astounding profits in the following years. On the other hand, if you buy the US markets when they are overvalued, a P/E above 21, you are likely to lose capital or see no gains for decades. Buy low, when valuations are cheap, and sell high, when valuations are expensive. Ride the Long Valuation Waves from trough to peak, but then get off and patiently wait for the next ideal wave!

Post  44524  by  Decomposed       Reply
re: KNM

I'm looking for another surge in the price of Konami. This evening, I happened to catch a blurb on CNN where an analyst was listing his expectations for the hot Christmas items. In the eight to ten year old range, he picked Yu-Gi-Oh! trading cards... a set of which, he said, ran just $14.00.

(KNM has the American Yu-gi-oh rights.)

He also made a point about how huge Yu-gi-oh! has become -- which almost seems to defy common sense. Outside of this board, has anyone here ever seen or heard of Yu-gi-oh???

Eight to ten year olds obviously live in a different world.

Post  44525  by  srudek       Reply
ttalk: gold vs dollar

You said: "One must decide: is this about gold or about the dollar? While both are tied at the hip, the scenario becomes more obvious every day."

To me, more obvious some days than others. :-) However, I am very sympathetic to your point. The dollar used to only be a NAME for a fixed amount of gold, which was the real, international money. We've kept the name and lost the substance. Our currency used to be backed by an asset; now it's backed by a liability. We're such clever accountants.

However, the thing which really concerns me is not the worthlessness of the dollar. Firstly, all the world currencies are worthless, in that sense. Secondly, I understand there is only about $500 billion of U.S. dollars in existence. Paper money has become passe', it's hardly even used any more. No, I'm much more concerned about the unregulated expansion of credit and other quasi-currencies that allowed Cisco to get that kind of overvaluation to begin with.

Post  44526  by  maniati       Reply
pmcw: You say, "The problem that I tried to explain is that when the economists get too deep into their theory they are forced to make too many assumptions."

In the first place, that is an overly-simplistic generalization. You make it sound like advanced economics courses get more theoretical. What is your basis for saying that? I think they get more detailed, but that does no make them more theoretical.

But your assumption is that the Fed knew back during the summer that the elections would be so close that the results would not be known on Wednesday, and furthermore, that this somehow makes a difference to the Fed when it meets on Wednesday, and that the Fed realized all of this in August. That's more tenuous reasoning than any economic theory I have seen.

You have also said that a rate cut during the summer would have resulted in less spending and less investment. I don't know what economics book you are reading, but that's not the way it works. Your position is entirely speculation. Well, you can speculate all you want, but I don't see where it's grounded in any facts.

Moreover, a 1/4 point cut today is a much larger % cut than it was a couple of years ago. Today, it represents a 14% cut. When the discount rate was 5%, the same cut would have represented only a 5% cut. So, a 1/4 point cut, whether now or in August, ought to have some real impact. I don't see how you can say it would not only have had no impact in August, but that it would have an opposite impact. That's wild speculation. I've never read any such thing anywhere.

The point here is not whether the Fed should or should not have cut in August. The point is that you are trying to convince people that rate cuts can lead to less spending and less investment, depending on whether the month is August or November.

All you are doing is confusing people. That's my objection to all of this. I know you want credit for predicting a rate cut in November, but can't you justify it in some way that doesn't turn economics on its head? What is the greater good here?

BTW, lots of people said the Fed needed to save its bullets. Even I did. You don't remember ever having heard anyone say that the Fed was running out of room to cut? I sure do.

Post  44527  by  maniati       Reply

Actually, I think you have it backward. A solar sail would be designed to have a very high surface area to mass ratio -- because the entire point is to create something so gossamer that the ethereal solar wind could push it around. That's not the goal with a solar cell array. Quite the opposite! You'd want to minimize the effect of the solar wind while still staring the sun smack in the face. That translates to pretty thick solar cells.

You conceded my point, which is that solar wind would be an issue. That, after all, is your only basis for saying the solar cells would have to be thick, since there is no other reason why that would have to be true. Otherwise, it would be more practical and economical to build a solar array with a higher surface-to-mass ratio than a solar sail.

So, your saying that it would have to be thick in order to compensate for solar wind is no different from my saying that a thin array would require repositioning due to solar wind. Flip sides of the same coin.

Post  44528  by  uponroof       Reply
more on rate cuts and gold...

Thanks to all for the duscussion on this. Also enjoyed the thoughts on RE and 'normal appreciation' (srudek). ttalk-, thanks for sharing, your perspectives are a pleasure to read. Linda thanks for the trim tabs link. Pace, that dead horse you're beating is still way ahead of the field. Warstud, .25 is the minimum expected on the street. Some are talking .75. All expect something!

Gee, what happens if AG delivers only a talked up bias? Not that I think this will happen, but if it does the markets would most certainly tank. Or worse, perhaps trigger a major collapse. Along these Greenspan now finally a hostage of the street? Is there so much at stake, and this situation understood, that the inmates are taking over the asylum?


Gold falls back in shadow of firmer stocks, dollar
Monday November 4, 6:06 am ET

LONDON, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Gold shrank back in European trading on Monday as firmer stocks markets and a resilient dollar proved a winning combination to force the sale of bullion, traders said.
Spot gold was quoted at $317.10/317.60 an ounce by 1056 GMT, down from $318.60/319.10 at Friday's New York close and off last week's three-week high of $321.30.

The safe-haven asset gave up ground as eurostocks (London:^FTEU3 - News) and the dollar (EUR=) made ground ahead of an expected interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

Gold was seen holding in a narrow range ahead of the decision.

"Gold looks set to continue in its $315-322 range, tracking moves in the dollar and equities," said James Moore, metals analyst at

An interest rate cut is mostly seen positive for gold as rate cuts would not only highlight the sluggish pace of growth in the United States economy -- which tends to favour gold -- but also makes it less profitable for mining companies to sell their gold forward, which removes supply from the market.

"Over the coming days, we expect that the gold price will temporarily be able to clearly break $320 an ounce at least. Renewed buying interest from the hedge funds should be forthcoming.

"After the specs covered their positions last week, the market once again has a positive undertone," analysts at Frankfurt-based Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein said in a report.

Despite the session losses, gold is still 14 percent higher than this time last year, making it one of the best performing financial assets.

This year's rally in bullion has been led by falls in global stocks and the dollar which have led to fund interest in gold.

High profile corporate scandals and geopolitical concerns, ranging from fears to a repeat attack on the U.S. mainland similar to September 11 to Middle East tensions, has also seen investors turn to bullion as a bolt-hole.

Moves by leading miners to cut their forward sales and instead sell their supply into higher spot market prices was a major factor behind gold's rally to $330.30 an ounce in June this year, a 2-1/2 year price high.

Good seasonal import demand into India, the world's largest gold consumer, has also helped bullion prices higher.

In other precious metals, spot silver (XAG=) was quoted at $4.45/4.47, down from $4.50/4.52 at the close of trade in New York.

At 1057 GMT platinum (XPT=) was quoted at $578.00/582.00, an ounce down from the last New York close at $580.00/585.00, while palladium (XPD=) was at $305.00/311.00, down from $306.00/318.00 previously.

Post  44529  by  maniati       Reply
srudek: More later, in answer to your questions, but just a quick note now regarding the excerpt posted by Decomposed: the "monetary base" (also known as "high-powered money" or "high-powered reserves") means all currency + Fed member bank reserves that are held on deposit at the Fed. (These are reserves that would show up in the Fed's balance sheet as liabilities.)

In contrast, the "money supply" includes other things in addition to the monetary base. What gets included depends on what definition you use for money supply - M1, M2, etc. But, at a minimum, it's going to include all demand deposits (M1).

Post  44530  by  pmcw       Reply
sr, I've taken each of your articles and applied their suggestions to REAL S&P500 Data and REAL CPI data. I've found all of them to be grossly "mistaken". Please take the time to do the same and I'm sure you'll agree.

Second point: If one was to be lucky enough to buy at the absolute bottom (go in 100% at the bottom) what do you suspect the odds are getting out (100%) at the top? Before you answer by saying one should follow the recipe of buy at "X" P:E and sell at "Y" P:E please apply those P:E driven formulas to the market over at least the last 75 years and let me know how you do. The steak has sizzle, but absolutely no flavor.

Regards, pmcw

Post  44531  by  pmcw       Reply
Silicon Integrated Systems is raising it's Q4 wafer output by 25% after reporting heavy demand in October. They make primarily PC chip-sets. As it's been reported, VIA had a good October too. Adding to the evidence of better PC demand, Asustrek out of China is reporting robust demand for mother boards from third tier houses. Regards, pmcw

Post  44532  by  pacemakernj       OT: Jeffbas, I do like your answer better. My only
Post  44533  by  tinljhtkh       OT: Let's hope

Post  44534  by  pacemakernj       Reply
Linda, at this time it is a wild card that has yet to be played. So it is impossible to know exactly how the market will react until it happens. Until it does it's all speculation. Pace

Post  44535  by  lkorrow       Reply
An interesting story for AT&T watchers.

Ma Bell Redux

Former telecom analyst Jack Grubman's 1990s' prediction that AT&T Corp. would soon be overtaken by rivals like WorldCom Group Inc. and Qwest Communications International Inc. hasn't turned out quite the way he expected. AT&T is looking better-placed to regain the Ma Bell crown it wore for nearly a century. At the very least, banking the company could be the keystone of a winning telecom strategy, as AT&T is one of the few telecom companies expected to tap the capital markets in depth and possibly make an acquisition in the next year.

Full story:

Post  44536  by  lkorrow       Reply
sr, thanks, it makes me wonder what the normal course of (gold) business is for Chase and how they expect to get themselves out of their predicament.

Post  44537  by  pmcw       Reply
Northrop Grumman Information Technology and Identix Selected for Phase Two of The Defense Department Biometric Common Access Card Testing and Evaluation
Monday November 4, 8:10 am ET

HERNDON, Va., and MINNETONKA, Minn., Nov. 4 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Northrop Grumman Information Technology (IT) and Identix Incorporated (Nasdaq: IDNX - News) announced today that the two companies have been selected to participate in the second phase of the Department of Defense (DoD) Common Access Card Biometric Working Group (CAC/BWG) technical evaluations.

The DoD's Common Access Card is intended to be the standard identification card for all active-duty military personnel, Selected Reserve and National Guard, as well as the Department's civilian employees and eligible contractors. The CAC is a smart card with an embedded computer chip that will be used to enable authenticated and authorized physical access to installations, buildings, and controlled spaces. Additionally, the CAC will provide authenticated and authorized access to military computer networks and systems. Over one million cards have been issued to date, with distribution expected to exceed four million in the next two years.

Northrop Grumman IT and Identix have been asked to integrate fingerprint biometrics into a standard offering for testing and evaluation for the federal government's smart ID card platform. During the first phase of the technical demonstrations, Northrop Grumman IT and Identix integrated and documented several scenarios for authenticating individuals with intelligent smart cards, including template on card and match on card.

As part of the second phase of the DoD CAC/BWG, Northrop Grumman IT and Identix will deliver various scenarios for the use of the biometrically- enabled CAC for physical and logical access control. Additionally, the Northrop Grumman IT and Identix team will provide training, testing, and post delivery support. The DoD has stated that it plans to continue to test and evaluate solutions that will culminate in a full biometric roll-out on the CAC.

"After successfully providing the required solutions in the first phase of the CAC/BWG with Identix, we are confident our combined expertise will deliver on the next phase of the biometric smart card demonstration. This will ultimately create a standard protocol for the use of biometrics and smart cards throughout government and corporate enterprise," said Kent Schneider, president, Defense Enterprise Solutions, Northrop Grumman IT.

Dr. Joseph J. Atick, President and CEO of Identix stated, "We are pleased to have been selected as a participant in this very important process. With recent DoD request for proposals outlining the requirement for minutia-based fingerprint biometrics to be used within the military and federal civilian smart card ID programs, we believe that our combined work with Northrop Grumman IT not only sets the foundation, but also quickens the pace for using biometrically-enabled smart IDs at the enterprise level."

About Northrop Grumman Information Technology

Northrop Grumman IT is a premier provider of advanced IT solutions, engineering and business services for government and commercial clients. Headquartered in Herndon, Va., the company's expertise spans such areas as information systems integration; command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (C4ISR); enterprise hardware and software solutions; training and simulation; base and range support; signals intelligence; space systems; health informatics; and specialized scientific, engineering and technical services. For more information about Northrop Grumman IT, visit the company's Web site at .

About Identix Incorporated

Identix Incorporated (Nasdaq: IDNX - News), recently merged with Visionics Corporation, is the world's leading mulit-biometric security technology company. The company's broad range of fingerprint and facial recognition technology offerings empower the identification of individuals who wish to gain access to information or facilities, conduct transactions and obtain IDs. Additionally, the company's product and solution offerings can help identify those who perpetrate fraud and otherwise pose a threat to public safety. Identix' products serve a broad range of industries and market segments -- most notably, government and law enforcement, aviation, financial, healthcare and corporate enterprise. In addition, the company's wholly owned subsidiary, Identix Public Sector, provides project management and facilities engineering services to the government sector. More information on Identix can be accessed via the Company web site at .

Post  44538  by  pacemakernj       OT: Linda, I was just hoping. Pace. eom.

Post  44539  by  uponroof       Reply
Futures way up to kick off...
a wild week/month/end of year?

Post  44540  by  pmcw       Reply
Milwaukee's Buried Treasure

Talk about thinking ahead! Some cities, such as Daytona, FL, are actually getting into the CLEC game. However, in many states it is not legal for the city to compete with the phone company. It might be interesting to watch and see how city, local and state governments figure out how to take some money out of this game - God knows they need the funds. They (city, local and state governments) have taken on over $5T in new debt during the last five years.

Talk about a sound investment. In the late 1800s, Milwaukee city workers buried more than 500 miles of ductwork under the streets to carry telegraph wires. Now it carries fiber for the city's broadband government-only network.

Post  44541  by  lkorrow       Reply
ttalknet, I only read half last time, should have read the whole thing. It's interesting the IMF forbids a gold-based currency. It seems like the dinar could replace the dollar as a stabilizer of currencies, but this is more of a question than a statement, I don't have a grip on the whole picture or gold and currency action.

Post  44542  by  pmcw       Reply
Intersil Begins Sampling PRISM GT to Lead Partners
Monday November 4, 9:44 am ET
Innovative Two-Chip 802.11g WLAN Solution Provides True 54 Mbps Operation

If you go to COMDEX this year, you can see HDTV streaming over an ISIL chip-set. Message: Look for more situations where ISIL is in the set-top box. ;o)

IRVINE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 4, 2002--Intersil Corporation (Nasdaq:ISIL - News):
PRISM GT(TM) is 100% Backward Compatible With Existing 802.11b Wi-Fi Systems
Provides Superior Range and Throughput Over Industry's 802.11A or 802.11b+ WLAN Products
Intersil Corporation (Nasdaq:ISIL - News), a world leader in the design and manufacture of high performance analog and wireless networking solutions, announced today it is sampling PRISM GT, its new 2-chip WLAN solution, with leading ODMs and OEMs. Designed to support the new 802.11g high-rate Draft Standard for Wireless Local Area Networking (WLAN) products operating in the 2.4 GHz band, PRISM GT provides twice the range and throughput for currently marketed 802.11a products and over three times the throughput of 802.11b+ products. Intersil has begun design efforts with Accton Technology Corporation, Actiontec Electronics, Inc., Ambit Microsystems Corporation, BroMax Communications, Z-Com, Inc., and other partners who are developing products for Intersil's end customers.

"We have recently completed an extensive tour throughout the US and Asia demonstrating what we believe is the most integrated, highest performing solution for the draft 802.11g standard - PRISM GT. The response from customers has been very enthusiastic and multiple new design wins are underway. The range and throughput performance of our PRISM GT solution speaks for itself and we are very excited that PRISM GT is going to set the standard by which all other WLAN solutions will be judged," said Larry Ciaccia, vice president and general manager of Intersil's Wireless Networking Product Group.

Intersil has skillfully combined the 802.11g Draft Standard's mandatory modulation schemes - Complementary Code Keying (CCK) used in 802.11b, and Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) used in 802.11a - with its proven low-cost ZIF architecture in designing the PRISM GT chip set. These innovative technologies enable wireless networking systems to attain data transmission speeds up to 54 million bits per second (Mbps) while remaining 100 percent backward compatible to the existing installed base of over 30 million Wi-Fi systems worldwide. CCK ensures backward-compatibility with the installed Wi-Fi base, while OFDM provides the speed required for today's high-bandwidth applications.

"Intersil has leveraged over five years of WLAN innovation and IC integration to develop PRISM GT," added Ciaccia. "In both our PRISM GT chip set and PRISM Duette(TM) - our recently announced 802.11a, b, & g dual-band WLAN chip set - we have implemented a solution that is capable of delivering true 54 Mbps OFDM-based performance with seamless backwards compatibility with 802.11b."

PRISM GT will enable a new generation of high-data-rate platforms for operation in the 2.4 GHz spectrum that delivers a three-fold increase in throughput over currently marketed 802.11b+. Lower power consumption is also realized compared to systems operating in the 5 GHz spectrum. These advantages will make PRISM GT an ideal solution for high-bandwidth enterprise applications, such as wireless video conferencing and large file transfers, as well as advanced home networking applications such as multi-channel CD-quality audio and DVD-quality video streaming.

The PRISM GT solution uses Intersil's proven direct down conversion architecture developed for the PRISM® 3 chip set and the digital signal processing expertise gained in the development of 5 GHz 802.11a products. The transceiver integrates the receiver, transmitter, synthesizer and filters onto a single chip, and interfaces directly with the Baseband Processor to provide system designers with a complete end-to-end WLAN chip set solution. The Medium Access Controller (MAC) includes enhanced security and network management features.

The PRISM GT transceiver is an RF-to-baseband solution that takes high frequency radio waves and directly converts them to baseband signals during reception, or directly up-converts them from the low-level baseband signal to radio frequency during transmission. This architecture completely eliminates the need for the intermediate frequency (IF) stage found in most radios. Eliminating the IF stage reduces complexity, bill-of-materials (BOM) and manufacturing costs, as well as enabling smaller form factors appropriate for portable, handheld devices.

Intersil's turnkey solutions approach will include mini-PCI and CardBus32-PC Card reference designs. Also offered will be all the development tools an original equipment manufacturer will need to quickly bring 802.11g WLAN products to market. The reference design kit includes the PRISM GT chip set, complete schematics, Gerber and layout files, BOM, manufacturing test utilities, PRISM lab test diagnostic tools, FAB drawings (PC board), antenna construction details, a technology license agreement, manufacturing, mechanical and assembly drawings.

Intersil + Elantec Means More for Our Customers

Intersil Corporation is a global semiconductor leader in the design and manufacture of high performance analog and wireless networking solutions. The acquisition of Elantec Semiconductor, Inc., expanded Intersil's product portfolios to address four fast growing markets - flat panel displays, optical storage (CD and DVD recordable), power management and wireless networking. Intersil brings added customer value in providing complete silicon, software and reference design solutions to new products that enhance the computing experience for people wherever they live, work or travel. For more information about Intersil or to find out how to become a member of our winning team, visit the company's web site and career page at:

This press release contains forward-looking statements as defined in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Such forward-looking statements are based upon Intersil Corporation's ("Intersil") management's current expectations, estimates, beliefs, assumptions, and projections about Intersil's, and its Elantec Product Group's ("Elantec"), business and industry. Words such as "anticipates," "expects," "intends," "plans," "predicts," "believes," "seeks," "estimates," "may," "will," "should," "would," "potential," "continue," and variations of these words (or negatives of these words) or similar expressions, are intended to identify forward-looking statements. In addition, any statements that refer to expectations, projections, or other characterizations of future events or circumstances, including any underlying assumptions, are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore, our actual results could differ materially and adversely from those expressed in any forward-looking statements as a result of various risk factors. Important risk factors that may cause such material differences for Intersil's WLAN product group include, but are not limited to: the continued slowdown in the technology sector; the rate at which consumers adopt small handheld Internet appliances and portable computing devices in enterprises and in homes; the rate at which consumers purchase notebook computers with embedded wireless; the rate at which our present and future customers and end-users adopt Intersil's wireless access, technologies; the timing, rescheduling or cancellation of significant customer orders; the ability of our customers to manage inventory; the loss of a key customer; the qualification, availability and pricing of competing products and technologies and the resulting effects on sales and pricing of our products; silicon wafer pricing and the availability and quality of our foundry capacity and raw materials; availability, pricing, and quality of third party foundry and assembly and test capacity and raw materials; fluctuations in the manufacturing yields of our third party foundries and assembly and test facilities, and other problems or delays in the fabrication, assembly, testing or delivery of our products; the risks of producing products with new suppliers and at new fabrication and assembly and test facilities; problems or delays that we may face in shifting our products to smaller geometry process technologies; the effectiveness of Intersil's expense and product cost control and reduction efforts; the risks inherent in acquisitions, including the acquisition of Elantec (including integration issues; costs and unanticipated expenditures; changing relationships with customers, suppliers, and strategic partners; potential contractual, employment, and intellectual property issues; ; risks that the anticipated benefits of the acquisition are not realized); intellectual property disputes, customer indemnification claims, and other litigation risks; Intersil's ability to develop, market, and transition to volume production new products and technologies in a timely manner, as well as other risk factors. Intersil's quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, annual reports on Form 10-K, Current Reports on Form 8-K, and other Intersil filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") (which you may obtain for free at the SEC's web site at discuss some of the important risk factors that may affect our business, results of operations, and financial condition. These forward-looking statements are made only as of the date of this communication and Intersil undertakes no obligation to update or revise these forward-looking statements.

PRISM is a registered trademark and PRISM GT and PRISM Duette are trademarks of Intersil Americas Inc.

Post  44543  by  lkorrow       OT: Thanks, Decomposed, solar has an advantage som

Post  44544  by  angus_mac01       Reply
looks like this weeks off to a good start.... watching GMPW ~
Had a decent gain of 50% on Friday after a 100% gain on Thursday. Just bounced off of it’s 52 week low of .07 a few days ago.

Post  44545  by  pmcw       Reply
Will Rogers on Government

by Gary M. Galles

[Posted November 4, 2002]

Will Rogers, one of America's best-loved humorists, once said he'd never met a man he didn't like. But that amiability did not extend to the government. He gave free rein to his 1st Amendment freedom to criticize our government, using his wit, and the threat of public embarrassment that went with it, to keep politicians and bureaucrats in their place.

Will Rogers' approach seems even more necessary today, with the almost unrestricted influence the government has assumed over American since he passed from the scene in a tragic 1935 plane crash. And there is no better time to remember his humorous insights about our government than on his birthday, November 4, especially as it is the day before an election.

"I don't make jokes. I just watch the government and report the facts."

"This country has come to feel the same when Congress is in session as when a baby gets hold of a hammer."

"With Congress, every time they make a joke it's a law, and every time they make a law it's a joke."

"Never blame a legislative body for not doing something. When they do nothing, that don't hurt anybody. When they do something is when they become dangerous."

"Be thankful we're not getting all the government we're paying for."

"Ancient Rome declined because it had a Senate; now what's going to happen to us with both a Senate and a House?"

"The trouble with practical jokes is that very often they get elected."

"On account of us being a democracy and run by the people, we are the only nation in the world that has to keep a government four years, no matter what it does."

"The short memories of American voters is what keeps our politicians in office."

"The more you read and observe about this Politics thing, you got to admit that each party is worse than the other. The one that's out always looks the best."

"Our public men are speaking every day on something, but they ain't saying anything."

"If we got one-tenth of what was promised to us in these acceptance speeches there wouldn't be any inducement to go to heaven."

"The budget is a mythical bean bag. Congress votes mythical beans into it, and then tries to reach in and pull real beans out."

"If you ever injected truth into politics you have no politics."

"Everything is changing. People are taking the comedians seriously and the politicians as a joke."

"There's no trick to being a humorist when you have the whole government working for you."

"Next to guinea pigs, taxes have been the most prolific animal."

"If you make any money, the government shoves you in the creek once a year with it in your pockets, and all that don't get wet you can keep."

"The only thing I would advise you to do [for lower taxes] is not to have anything they can tax away from you."

"The income tax has made liars out of more Americans than golf."

"The only difference between death and taxes is that death doesn't get worse every time Congress meets."

"I don't want to complain, but every time they build a tax structure, the first thing they nail is me."

Humor is one of the most effective ways to protest government abuse, to highlight the frequent lack of logic behind government pronouncements and programs, to expose government corruption, and to deflate those who grow too self-important as our "public servants." And Will Rogers' sense of humor can help keep our spirit of liberty alive by openly ridiculing what is in fact ridiculous about how government really operates.

Post  44546  by  danking_70       OT: Expert: Iran ripe for revolution

Post  44547  by  uponroof       Reply
pmcw excellent post!!!

my favorites (and something to keep in mind Wednesday while pulling levers):

"Be thankful we're not getting all the government we're paying for."

"Never blame a legislative body for not doing something. When they do nothing, that don't hurt anybody. When they do something is when they become dangerous."

uponroof-Recall when the gummint 'shut down' and all the nation was outraged......well, I was ecstatic. An obvious case of 'less is more' for all to see, yet few saw it.

Nothing beats good old horse sense. It's timeless, trumping analysts best efforts, everytime. I wonder what Will would have to say today?

Post  44548  by  pmcw       Reply
roof, God only knows what Will would say today (the core material today is even better than it was in Will's time), but I'll bet he enjoys his company too much to let him come back. ;o)

My favorite line during the Clinton administration was "don't just do something, sit there". Regards, pmcw

Post  44549  by  Decomposed       ot: maniati, solar cells

Post  44550  by  ttalknet2       Reply
Groucho Marx (Professor Wagstaff) in the movie Horse Feathers:

I don't know what they have to say,
it makes no difference anyway--
whatever it is, I'm against it!

No matter what it is or who commenced it,
I'm against it!

Your proposition may be good,
but let's have one thing understood--
whatever it is, I'm against it!

And even when you've changed it or condensed it,
I'm against it!

So everyone, please vote tomorrow.

Post  44551  by  lkorrow       Reply
Maybe this is irrelevant to our CA members, but four volcanos in four countries, earthquakes in Alaska, Nebraska, Pakistan, Japan, Sumatra So is somebody trying to tell us something? Not according to the USGS:

"On any given day, we located about 50 earthquakes throughout the world," said Waverly Person, a USGS geophysicist. "This to us is pretty normal."

-- from Recent Earthquakes at a Glance:,1282,-2143590,00.html

Alaska quake rattles futures; crude slips

By Myra P. Saefong,
Last Update: 11:22 AM ET Nov. 4, 2002

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- A weekend earthquake in Alaska prompted the closure of a major pipeline, lifting futures prices for gasoline Monday to their highest level in two weeks.

The Trans-Alaska Pipeline has been shut down indefinitely, according to Phil Flynn, a senior energy analyst at brokerage house, following Sunday's magnitude 7.9 earthquake centered on the Denali Fault 90 miles south of Fairbanks.

"This pipeline is a major supplier of our domestic oil," he said. It delivers 20 percent of U.S. oil production from Alaska's North Slope, with tanker ships taking on loads in Valdez.

The timing of the shutdown couldn't have come at a worst time, he added, with domestic oil supplies are at "perilously low levels."

Last week, the American Petroleum Institute said U.S. crude supplies rose during the week ended Oct. 25 but were still at more than 15 million barrels below their year-ago level, while both distillate and gasoline inventories declined on the week. See full story.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, December unleaded gasoline climbed by 1.05 cents to 77.50 cents a gallon. The contract reached a high at 77.55 cents earlier in the session, its highest reading since Oct. 21.

Flynn said the pipeline had opened in 1977 at a cost of $8 billion and was designed to sit on supports so it would not be subject to thawing permafrost and would be protected in case of an earthquake, but the support structure sustained damage in the quake.

The lost oil could be recovered, however, with OPEC's aggregate production currently running above its official quota of 21.7 million barrels per day, excluding Iraq.

The most recent output data showed OPEC's production increased by 360,000 barrels per day during October, excluding Iraq, according to Fimat USA.

But another survey conducted by a news agency last week showed that OPEC's other 10 members overshot the cartel's official target by nearly 2.6 million barrels per day in October.

Following the news out of Alaska, crude for December delivery traded at $27.03 a barrel, down 10 cents. Also on Nymex, December heating oil eased by 0.46 cent to 73.7 cents a gallon.

Latest geopolitical maneuverings

In other energy-related news, Saud al-Faisal, the Saudi Foreign Minister, has said he will not allow the United States to use bases in Saudi Arabia even if military action against Iraq is sanctioned by the United Nations.

"This statement represents a major shift in Saudi policy and makes us wonder about U.S./Saudi relations," said Flynn.

Meanwhile, the Security Council's dispute over the wording of an Iraqi resolution proposal from the U.S. continued. Russia and France have argued that, as written, the proposal could give the U.S. the right to act unilaterally if Iraq fails to cooperate with U.N. weapons inspections.

The Bush administration vowed last Thursday to revise its proposed resolution in a bid to gain French and Russian support.

Also, the API announced Friday that beginning Jan. 8, 2003, it will release its weekly petroleum supply data on Wednesdays at 9 a.m. Eastern time. The closely watched report would thus coincide with the Energy Department's own weekly release.

Natural gas futures slip further

Natural gas for December delivery declined for a third-straight session Monday.

The benchmark December contract fell to $3.955 per million British thermal units in Nymex action, down 10.5 cents.

The National Weather Service forecasts below normal temperatures in the central part of the country from Nov. 9 through Nov. 13 but expects a return to above-normal temperatures along the East Coast.

"El Nino winter may be encouraging some storage holders to pull stocks early to avoid getting caught with too much supply later in the heating season," analysts at Fimat said in a note to clients Monday.

Last week, the Energy Department reported that natural gas in storage rose 11 billion cubic feet during the week ended Oct. 25, to a total of 3.172 trillion cubic feet. Stocks are now 40 billion cubic feet above levels at this time last year.

Gold slips as stock market soars

Strength in the broader U.S. stock market lured investors away from the safe haven of gold investments Monday, pressuring prices for gold futures and pulling shares of major metals companies lower.

December gold traded at $318.70 an ounce, down 50 cents. See Metals Stocks.

The Reuters/CRB Index, a broad-based measure of the commodity futures market, shed 0.3 percent to stand at 228.


Post  44552  by  oldCADuser       Reply
Well it appears my high-tech trio (AMD, XICO & AETH) are doing pretty good this morning, particularly Aether Systems as it's up nearly 20%. These are the stocks I invested my InVision Technologies (INVN) profits in earlier this year. While as a group I'm still in the red with them, they are all moving smartly and could pay off nicely if this is really the start of a sustained upward movement.

Anyway, this could be very good week overall.


Post  44553  by  maniati       Reply
pmcw: Great post on Will Rogers. BTW, that reminds me, I think there's a good answer to the problem with the Senate refusing to act on judicial appointments. Actually, I see two good answers. But, one of them, which I think you will find interesting, can be found in Article 2, Section 2, Paragraph 3 of the Constitution. Check it out. :-)

Post  44554  by  oldCADuser       OT: Heck...

Post  44555  by  srudek       Reply
pmcw: Applying my suggested strategy (buy low, sell high) so it can be compared to the alternative (buy, buy, buy)seems like a very worthwhile exercise. I'm going to take it on as an intermediate-term project (which probably means I won't attempt to present anything before early next year).

What I'll do is come up with criteria beforehand so I'm not selecting criteria to maximize the outcome (although there might be some value in that, as well, it shouldn't be otherwise confused with an "objective" test).

You've already done this?? Care to present the analysis??? It would blow my mind if it didn't work -- probably as much as discovering the moon really was "made of green cheese"! What problems did you encounter, if I may ask? Any particular criteria you want to suggest for the study so you'll find the outcome credible?

I'm going to need good data on individual stocks PE and dividend information through time. Reliable PE data is hard to come by, as too many sources accept all sorts of "pro forma" nonsense income reports these days.

I suppose the much easier alternative is to just assume I buy the whole basket of Dow stocks, but I hate to do that as that is not what I'd do / recommend in the real world(and you can't get a dividend buying an "index").

Can you suggest a good source of data? This is most important. I really don't want to spend a bunch of time doing an analysis and have the basic criteria or data rejected.

Post  44556  by  lkorrow       OT: Decomposed, Space Elevators

Post  44557  by  pmcw       Reply
sr, I believe it was an article you posted that suggested buying at specific P:E points and then selling at another P:E point. I found the conclusions of the claimed return to not be consistent with reality. I went through the general data using both the CPI adjusted returns you provided in a previous post and the real life S&P500 returns.

My play is far from buy, buy, buy. Of course, in the early years of one's investing lifetime, it is as you say (BBB), but as the time for retirement approaches it turns into a bit more of a reallocation game. I posted exactly what I would tell someone in this regard, as a general rule of thumb, when I provided the long set of one year CPI adjusted return data.

I'll tell you what, you set out the "game rules" and I'll provide you with the S&P500 data so you can make your own calculations. I have detailed (monthly) data going back to the early 60's and real annual data going back to 1926. I also have the data presented in "Stocks for the Long Run" that goes back to 1871 (simulated S&P data from 1871 through 1926). I don't remember for sure, but I'm not sure if the pre 1926 data includes earnings and dividends, but all other data sets do.

I suggest using what is classically considered an "investment lifetime" of 50 years and since you seem to like P:E valuation points just name your buy and sell points. Also name a nominal interest rate for cash accounts. I also suggest using the allocation data and investment rate I mentioned in the referenced post. Remember, you're investor doesn't have their lifetime of money when they turn 18. They will have to gather and save cash to buy all at once and then sell back to cash all at once.

I'll bet you a cookie I win. ;o)

Regards, pmcw

Post  44558  by  lkorrow       OT: Tin, earthquakes
Post  44559  by  lkorrow       OT: Pace, I know. Abortion's a tough issue.

Post  44560  by  pmcw       Reply
maniati, I'm curious as to if there will be any changes in the leadership of the Senate during the lame-duck session now that there is an even split between D's and R's. Can you comment on this? Regards, pmcw

Post  44561  by  lkorrow       OT: OCU, you get around! This is going to be one i

Post  44562  by  ljpit       Reply
AMD Announces Sampling Of The New AMD Alchemy™ Solutions Chipset With Revolutionary Architecture For Wireless LAN

—Production availability of the two-chip CMOS solution planned for Q1 ’03—

SUNNYVALE, CA -- November 04, 2002 --AMD (NYSE:AMD) today announced widespread availability for sampling of the AMD Alchemy™ Solutions Am1772™ Wireless LAN chipset and a mini-PCI card reference design kit (RDK). A revolutionary two-chip 802.11b wireless Local Area Network (WLAN) solution with next-generation architecture, the Am1772 chipset will provide customers the building blocks for an outstanding long-term wireless strategy. Customers who use the Am1772 chipset in their laptop computer, handheld computer or other portable computing device will be able to significantly lower their system cost, provide longer battery life, and lower host CPU utilization--the amount of CPU processing power needed to support WLAN connectivity. Widely available sampling of the Am1772 chipset and RDK is scheduled for this month and AMD plans production availability in Q1 2003.

“Collaborating with our customers and identifying their needs led our design team to create the remarkably innovative Am1772 chipset and a mini-PCI card reference design kit, a high-integration, low-power, high-performance solution,” said Dr. William Edwards, AMD’s vice president and general manager for the Personal Connectivity Solutions Group. “This will be AMD’s bold first step into the wireless market, and the first of several wireless products we plan to introduce over the next 12 months. Ultimately, we intend to continue to provide industry-leading wireless technology for our customers, and to integrate that technology into our MIPS® technology-based AMD Alchemy Solutions system-on-a-chip (SOC) processors.”

Leading Wireless LAN card vendors have already expressed support for the Am1772 WLAN chipset.

“The Am1772 WLAN chipset will offer significant benefits to us as a customer,” said Steven Chang, wireless R&D manager of Ambit. “We see this as a real breakthrough in design and a clear indication that AMD has a well-planned strategy and is a serious player in wireless 802.11b solutions.”

“AMD ‘s architectural design is impressive and will offer our customers a reliable, robust solution,” said Chaney Wang, director of R&D division at Askey. “Their reference design and use of auto-calibration technology will allow us to bring products to market quickly while reducing both manufacturing costs and test time.”

“Judging on the most important metrics - system costs, power efficiency, processor utilization, reception sensitivity, transmitting power and footprint - AMD will clearly offer an industry-leading solution with the Am1772 WLAN chipset,” said James Hu of Z-Com, senior marketing and sales director. "Also, AMD's solution is well-positioned for future chipset integration."

About the Am1772™ WLAN chipset
Designed to enable customers to make easy transitions to future 802.11 medium access controller (MAC) enhancements, the Am1772 wireless chipset is a Complementary Metal-Oxide Semiconductor (CMOS) solution that utilizes baseband processor and a MAC, with a descriptor-based direct memory access (DMA) host interface. The CMOS design helps reduce power consumption for the mini-PCI-based reference design to 134 mA while receiving and 232mA while transmitting – a significant improvement over competing designs resulting in increased battery life in mobile applications. In addition, the highly integrated solution reduces the number of additional components and enables a very compact design.

The Am1772 chipset is comprised of the AMD Alchemy Solutions Am 1770™ Radio Frequency transceiver and the AMD Alchemy Solutions Am1771™ baseband processor and MAC. The Am1770 transceiver utilizes Direct Down Conversion, which eliminates the requirement for an Intermediate Frequency (IF) chip. The Am1771 chipset is an integrated baseband/MAC that features on-chip hardware acceleration designed to help significantly reduce host CPU load. The use of the baseband processor and MAC with a descriptor-based DMA architecture also benefits the customer by enabling lower system costs through the elimination of the on-chip micro-controller and the associated non-volatile (Flash) memory and SRAM. The use of auto-calibration technology also reduces the need for costly and time-consuming system calibration during the manufacturing process.

Product availability
Widespread availability for sampling of the Am1772 chipset and RDK is scheduled for this month and production availability is planned in Q1 2003.

For more information about the AMD Alchemy Solutions Am1772 wireless LAN chipset and mini-PCI card RDK, please follow the following link:,,51_104_543~56851,00.html


Post  44563  by  maniati       OT: pmcw: Good question. I'll let you know what my

Post  44564  by  pmcw       Reply
maniati, That is somewhat as I suspected. I'll anxiuosly await your update. I see control of the floor, if even for two months, as potentially important. I think there are fiscal issues typically thought as on the R side that the vote would pass by reasonable margin if they were brought to the floor. Regards, pmcw

Post  44565  by  pmcw       Reply
maniati, A very interesting and convenient convergence of circumstances indeed:

The President shall have power to fill up all vacancies that may happen during the recess of the Senate, by granting commissions which shall expire at the end of their next session.

This complicates that recess and power to control the floor thingy - huh?

Regards, pmcw

Post  44566  by  lkorrow       Reply
Don Rumsfield nuked the rally, announced that National Guard callups will start shortly . . .

Post  44567  by  lkorrow       Reply
Report on the impact of Claritin expiration. . . .

Cheap drugs to deliver big profits
Survey adds to evidence in support of generic makers

By Thom Calandra,
Last Update: 10:38 AM ET Nov 4, 2002

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - Generic drug makers and distributors, now battered by big-pharma lawsuits and legal maneuvers, will thrive in coming years, a new survey says.

The two-part survey from ChangeWave Research in Maryland indicates that reasonably priced drugs will rob increasing market share from multinational drug companies. Those big drug companies use expensive marketing and ad campaigns to boost sales of their expensive, proprietary drugs.

"Some (Wall Street) analysts and investors continue to believe proprietary drugs can market their way to acceptable market share based on brand name, more extensive scientific data and extensions of existing drugs," says Michael Shulman, director of research at ChangeWave. "Our survey results are conclusive and overwhelming: these optimists and big-pharma defenders are dead wrong."

ChangeWave, which uses consumer and industry polls to arrive at investment recommendations, said the entrance of a generic drug into a market with more than one proprietary treatment "damages all proprietary treatments."

In one response, 80 percent of health-care professionals polled by ChangeWave said the entire class of expensive antihistamines -- Clarinex, Allegra and Zyrtec - would suffer falling sales in coming weeks and months. Half of the respondents in the survey said the makers of those drugs would lose out "significantly."

Shulman at ChangeWave said sales of Claritin, Allegra and Zyrtec "are going to get clobbered in the next few weeks as the Claritin patent expires." Schering-Plough Corp.'s (SGP) blockbuster drug, Claritin, is the leading antihistamine and is due to lose its patent protections in early 2003.

Generic drugs are a sliver of pharmaceutical sales, with U.S. sales amounting to $11.1 billion in 2001 vs. $121 billion for the heavily advertised brand-name drugs. But the generics are gaining momentum.

A new U.S. Food and Drug Administration rule, proposed by President Bush, seeks to limit big drug companies' ability to extend their patents and prevent others from making cheap, generic versions of brand-name medications. See: FDA rule to speed generics to market.

Six of the 10 most frequently prescribed drugs are generic equivalents. Some two-thirds of Americans 45 and older choose generic over brand name drugs when they're available, a study of more than 1,000 members of AARP, a group that represents the interests of older Americans.

Medco Health, a unit of big-pharma Merck Co. (MRK), says pharmacists are substituting generics more than 92 percent of the time for brand-name drugs that had lost patent protection. Large companies such as General Motors are promoting programs that raise generic-drug awareness levels of doctors and employees See: The New York Times story.

At the same time, health plans' use of tiered systems that reward consumers who choose generic drugs is up to 57 percent of insured workers this year from 29 percent in 2000, says Kaiser Family Foundation. See: Generics need consumers on their side.

ChangeWave in its surveys questioned 71 health-care professionals and more than 500 consumers. Some 90 percent of the professionals said insurance companies and other payers were increasing pressure to prescribe generics.

Among the consumers, 54 percent said they purchase generic drugs each time a generic product is available. Another 20 percent said a generic purchase "depends on the cost."

ChangeWave's investment recommendations are specific and include short-sale bets against a company's shares:

- "Short poorly managed big-pharma firms (such as Schering-Plough and Eli Lilly) with exposure to generics."

- Short other companies vulnerable to the Claritin patent expiration. Our favorite (short) is a very news driven stock, Albany Molecular Research (AMRI). This company will take a hit when all the news about Claritin going (off-patent) begins to break in a few weeks and when Allegra (another antihistamine) begins to crack, Albany Molecular will follow." Albany Molecular receives royalties from sales of Allegra, says ChangeWave. (On Monday, Albany Molecular reiterated earnings growth estimates for next year.)

- Go long the best generics companies - our two favorites at this time are Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) and Eon Labs (ELAB) based on execution and product pipelines." Shulman at ChangeWave also recommends buying shares of generics distributors. AmerisourceBergen Corp. (ABC) is the largest U.S. distributor of drugs to independent pharmacies "and has outsized clout with these customers and with generics manufacturers, leading to superior margins and above-trend growth," the research director says.

AmerisourceBergen shares have far outpaced returns from the big pharmaceutical companies in the past 12 months. Amerisource shares are 60 percentage points better than those of Schering-Plough and 40 percent better than Eli-Lilly in the past year.

Post  44568  by  pacemakernj       Reply
Linda, is that what caused it? Well I had not herd that. But I sold my MACR, INTC, AMGN and half my JAKK. I am real happy with the gains. Also bought AOC today as well. Trade, trade, trade that's the name of the game. BTW, maybe we should just leave the abortion issue off the table. It's an argument that has many sides and no end. Pace.

Post  44569  by  pacemakernj       Reply
Linda, is that what caused it? Well I had not herd that. But I sold my MACR, INTC, AMGN and half my JAKK. I am real happy with the gains. Also bought AOC today as well. Trade, trade, trade that's the name of the game. BTW, maybe we should just leave the abortion issue off the table. It's an argument that has many sides and no end. Pace.

Post  44570  by  pacemakernj       OT:Linda, Sorry fot the double post. I don't know
Post  44571  by  oldCADuser       OT: Yea...

Post  44572  by  lkorrow       Reply
Pace, that was reported on cnbc . . .


U.S. kills al-Qaida suspects

Six al-Qaida suspects were killed, including a top operative of Osama bin Laden, when their car was blasted with a Hellfire missile fired from a CIA-operated drone in northwest Yemen, U.S. officials told NBC News on Monday.

-- U.S. missile in Yemen kills key suspect in USS Cole bombing, sources tell CNN.

Post  44573  by  lkorrow       OT: Pace, a lot of people are experiencing the dou
Post  44574  by  lkorrow       OT: That's a lot! Think you're right on the big OT

Post  44575  by  lkorrow       Reply
Pace, the report was the Reserves and National Guard are both being called in a couple of weeks.

Post  44576  by  pacemakernj       OT: Linda, as GW said we'll hunt these ######## do
Post  44577  by  maniati       OT: pmcw: To say the least.

Post  44578  by  uponroof       Reply
Hunted down with ultra high tech missle systems...

What a way to go! These guys were probably driving along in the middle of 'dessert nowhere', shooting the breeze, headed to the oasis, and completely oblivious to the fact that a low flying missle launcher was tracking every foot traveled. I hope they had their genitals protected with toilet paper.

Post  44579  by  uponroof       Reply
Richard Russell Q and A...

good insights on the rally

Post  44580  by  optimistic4dollars       Reply
My gut feel is no rate cut, the same thing happened a few months ago, when the markets went up. AG has very few rounds in his chamber. True, short term the market will rally but this guy from Bear sterns puts it best...
remember that his main job is the economy and not the markets, which will follow id the economy is sound... Read the last para carefully.

Most Trading Firms Expecting Rate Cut

By Elizabeth Stanton

New York, Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Bear, Stearns & Co. stands alone among Wall Street's largest bond-trading firms in expecting the Federal Reserve to hold its target rate steady at a 41-year low this week.

Consumer confidence at its lowest level since 1993 and a rising unemployment rate weren't enough to convince Bear Stearns the central bank will cut rates Wednesday. The other 21 firms that deal directly with the Fed expect policy makers to cut their 1.75 percent target for overnight loans between banks a quarter percentage point or more, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

``The unemployment data were not so weak as to suggest that the economy has begun'' to fall back into recession, wrote John Ryding, chief market economist at Bear Stearns, in a research note. Ryding said policy makers should wait until their Dec. 10 meeting to reduce rates, giving the lowest long-term and mortgage rates in a generation more of a chance to spur the economy.

The current economic slowdown is unrelated to a too-high fed funds rate, and ``we see no benefit at this point to cutting rates,'' Ryding wrote.

The central bank lowered the so-called federal funds rate 11 times in 2001 by a total of 4.75 percentage points. The rate has remained unchanged since December.

Greater Consensus

The number of economists at the 22 firms, known as primary dealers, forecasting a rate cut at this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting increased after an industry report on Oct. 29 showed consumer confidence declined for a fifth month, falling to 79.4 in October from 93.7 in September. A government report last week showing a 0.01 percent increase in the U.S. unemployment rate to 5.7 percent last month helped shift other expectations.

On Thursday, BNP Paribas Securities Corp. changed its forecast, switching to a quarter percentage point cut this week from no change, said Brian Fabbri, the firm's chief economist.

``Economic growth has slowed considerably and is likely to continue to slow,'' said Kevin Logan, senior market economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein Securities LLC. ``The economy barely grew at its long-term potential rate over the last four quarters and now is decelerating from that rate.'' Logan forecasts a half-point rate cut Wednesday.

At the beginning of the year, Bear Stearns was one of five primary dealers predicting the fed funds rate would stand at or below 1.75 percent at year-end. The other 19 firms, two of which are no longer primary dealers, forecast the central bank would raise interest rates this year.

Size of Reduction

The U.S. will likely expand at a slower pace this quarter, another reason for a rate cut, some economists said. The government reported last week the U.S. grew at a 3.1 percent pace in the third quarter, slower than the 3.7 percent rate predicted by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Fourteen of the economists expect a quarter-point cut to 1.5 percent and six predict a half-point reduction to 1.25 percent.

``There's enough evidence of moderation in the fourth quarter to justify some easing, but not enough to justify a full 50 basis points'' in November, said David Greenlaw, chief U.S. fixed-income economist at Morgan Stanley & Co., which predicts a quarter-point reduction on Wednesday. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

Consumer confidence may get a lift from a half-point rate, which may boost the financial markets, especially stocks, some economists said. Spending by consumers accounts for two-thirds of the economy.

``The logic of being preemptive is better than dribbling out the rate cuts'' over two months, said Bill Dudley, chief U.S. economist at Goldman, Sachs & Co. On Friday, the firm's economists lowered their fourth-quarter growth forecast to 0.5 percent from 2 percent.

No Longer Patient

For some, a rate cut was assured after an article in the Washington Post on Oct. 26 said the central bank would probably lower its target by the end of the year because of concerns about slow economic growth and a possible war with Iraq. The article cited recent speeches by Fed officials and private interviews.

Through newspaper articles, Fed policy makers ``signaled a willingness to ease if the data were weak enough, and in our judgment the data are looking sufficiently soft to force their hand,'' said Jay Feldman, an economist at Credit Suisse First Boston, who expects a quarter-point reduction on Wednesday.

Previous statements indicated Fed officials seemed inclined to give the economy more time to respond to the current level of rates, said Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc. At the end of September, Moran expected no change in rates this year. He now forecasts quarter-point rate cuts this week and in December.

Long-Term Rates

A drop in long-term rates is more important to the economy than lowering short-term rates at this point because it would encourage businesses to borrow money that could be used for new manufacturing facilities or research and development, said Conrad DeQuadros, an economist at Bear Stearns. More business spending may lead to job growth, reducing unemployment.

``If the Fed cuts rates, long-term rates could go up'' as investors expect faster inflation as a result, DeQuadros said. ``That could have negative implications.''

Since the beginning of the year, the yield on two-year Treasury notes has declined about 1.40 percentage points, compared with a 1.10 percentage-point fall in the 10-year Treasury note yield.

Following are the results of the survey, conducted on Nov. 1.

FIRM 11/06 12/10 12/31 3/31

ABN Amro 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50
BNP Paribas 1.50 1.25 1.25 1.25
Banc of America 1.50 1.25 1.25 1.25
Banc One 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25
Barclays Capital 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25
Bear Stearns 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75
CIBC World Markets 1.50 1.25 1.25 1.00
CSFB 1.50 1.25 1.25 1.25
Daiwa 1.50 1.25 1.25 1.25
Deutsche Bank 1.50 1.25 1.25 1.25
Dresdner 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25
Goldman Sachs 1.25 1.00 1.00 1.00
HSBC 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.00
J.P. Morgan Chase 1.50 1.25 1.25 1.25
Lehman Brothers 1.50 1.25 1.25 1.00
Merrill Lynch 1.50 1.25 1.25 1.25
Mizuho Securities 1.50 1.25 1.25 1.25
Morgan Stanley 1.50 1.25 1.25 1.25
Nomura 1.50 1.25 1.25 1.25
RBS Greenwich Capital 1.50 1.25 1.25 1.00
Salomon Smith Barney 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25
UBS Warburg 1.50 1.25 1.25 1.25

Post  44581  by  BuyingKid       Reply
OT.....I feel so when I got home from work I had voice messages from ex-Prez Bill Clinton and current President George Bush. Aw shucks, I didn't even believe they had my phone number or even cared about life in small town Iowa. Yesterday the Governor of the State, both of my Senators, and Representative tried to call me and left voice messages. On top of all that, Ark Linkletter (has he ever been in Iowa?) called me and asked me to vote for his Candidate of the Day. Unfortunately, all he could talk about was how the opposition to his candidate is a disgrace to the American political scene. That is a pretty low blow!

On a serious side, I would propose that we enact a National No Call Back List for all telemarketeers, politicians, political parties, etc. for the next national election. Negative TV ads -- fortunately I can turn them off. When they start pestering me by unsolicited phone calls, enough is enough. To me, it is a phony and degrading way of communicating with the American voter.

Post  44582  by  lkorrow       OT: Pace, a few less terrorists in the world is a
Post  44583  by  pmcw       OT: BK, I thought it was ironic that the day after

Post  44584  by  lkorrow       Reply
Roof, yes, let them fry. Now we've got Iraq.

Post  44585  by  BuyingKid       OT: ...Don't know about the long distance part, bu
Post  44586  by  wilful       OT: Attention SoCal Voters:

Post  44587  by  jeffbas       Reply
srudek, I have more experience than you think, as a close member of my family whom I see almost daily has been selling real estate for 20 years. While I won't argue that 4X in 7 years is ridiculous, I challenge you to make the correct comparison.

It IS NOT housing prices versus rents. It IS the after-tax carrying costs of homeownership versus rents, which in my opinion have not risen much in most areas of the country. As I noted some posts ago, a former mortgage banker I happened to see over the weekend said that what rent can be converted into in the way of a house price at today's interest rates is precisely what has been driving demand in my area.

The following graph illustrates my point:^TYX&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l

Long term treasury rates have gone 8% to 4.75% since 1995. Let's say that mortgage rates have gone from 9% to 5.75%. That means that the monthly payment on a $100,000 home in 1975 would be roughly the same as that on a $155,000 home today. Please tell us if a major percent of the country has done materially better than that, besides Marin Cty.

Post  44588  by  lkorrow       Reply
optimistic, with a cut priced in, look out below if it doesn't happen! When I first heard the rumor of a cut, I was surprised. After nothing happened last time around, I figured their thinking reverted to view it as generating negative sentiment. But if they've changed their thinking again, a quarter point isn't worth the paper it's written on, unless they're just doing it for its psychological impact. Well, I guess tomorrow could be a mess too if today's reversal continues.