Table On-Topic Summary - 10-Nov-2002
A compilation of this board's financial/economic posts From 44921 to 44946

Post  44921  by  Decomposed       OT: Table ON TOPIC SUMMARY Nov 9, 2002
Post  44922  by  optimistic4dollars       OT: pmcw, Linda:

Post  44923  by  ljpit       Reply
Strategists counter market optimists. They advise watching yields, gold, Brazil and banks

By Thom Calandra,
Last Update: 12:16 AM ET Nov. 6, 2002

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - "If you don't know who you are," Wall Street author and trader George Goodman once said, "the stock market is an expensive place to find out."

Not everyone has an identity crisis. Some strategists, fund managers and investors know exactly who they are and where they think financial markets are headed. Their views counter the widespread belief that the U.S. economy, and with it the stock market, is on solid ground.

Look out for banks

John Hathaway, manager of gold fund Tocqueville Asset Management (TGLDX: news, chart, profile): "The worst bear market in 25 years, corporate scandals, accounting heresy and all too evident geopolitical risks have caused only a modest rise in the gold price. This sort of skepticism is reassuring and supports our expectation that significantly higher gold prices lie ahead. The core safety nets that have absorbed the tide of risk-averse capital instead of gold are government bonds, real estate mortgages and credit derivatives. Pay careful attention to yield spreads, the share prices of money-center banks, particularly large derivative players such as J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM: news, chart, profile), the trade-weighted dollar index, the share prices of (FNM: news, chart, profile)Fannie Mae (FNM: news, chart, profile) and Freddie Mac (FRE: news, chart, profile), the share prices of mortgage insurers ... and the shape of the yield curve."

IPOs - all over again

Tom Taulli, author of "StreetSmart Guide to Short Selling" (McGraw Hill): "I couldn't believe my eyes. A money-losing tech IPO was filed today." Earlier this week, InPhonic (INPC: news, chart, profile), a provider of wireless voice and data communication software, filed to raise $90 million. The company lost $496,000 on revenue of $41.1 million in the first six months of the year.

Derivatives nightmare

Bill Murphy, chairman of the Gold Antitrust Action Committee: "Central bank gold loans and swaps are around 14,000 tons, mine supply is 2,500 tons and headed lower and a yearly supply/demand deficit is running approximately at 14,000 tons. Pile a mountain of gold derivatives on top of that and you a gold price explosion that is just waiting to happen. The $330-an-ounce gold price is the key. Take that out and gold will erupt like a volcano." See: Bullion bounces as rates, elections take toll.

Wait and see

Jim Dines, editor of The Dines Letter: "The economic news

has been dreadful, the real-estate bubble remains unresolved, the economies of Germany and Japan continue to deteriorate, counter-trend golds are in uptrends, Turkey has elected an Islamist government while Brazil is now governed by a leftist,

Israel's deep split in its electorate has finally resulted in a break-up and a combination of hardliners Sharon with Netanyahu guaranteeing more terrorism. On top of all that, the market is extremely overbought. Despite this, the surprise victory for Microsoft (MSFT: news, chart, profile) in its anti-trust case triggered a buying stampede. The crucial question is whether or not this is an ordinary year-end rally or the beginning of a new bull market. We need to see more."

Higher, please

Robert Bishop of Gold Mining Stock Report: "I continue to be amazed at the lack of conviction that some have about where we stand in the current gold cycle. Despite closing in on the third year in a row with gold having advanced, while virtually everything else has declined, there exists a tentativeness that does not lend itself to the reflexive embrace of lower prices. Two decades of decline will understandably lead to such a loss of confidence, and it's clear that only much higher gold prices will make certain buyers of today's uncertain fence-sitters."

Asset allocation

James Tu, director of investment research at Gerstein Fisher & Associates: "Inflation is a sure phenomenon in a paper currency system. So commodities should be part of a diversified portfolio. The optimal allocation to commodities is between 10 percent and 15 percent, but it is too bold an idea for many people to accept. Goldman Sachs now keeps 5 percent in commodities in its overall allocation. We continue to advocate the merits of commodities and precious metals. In our model, we separate them into two classes because of some distinct, monetary properties gold and silver possess. We have done extensive research and data mining and found that the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index returned over 3 percent better annually than the S&P 500 Index (SPX: news, chart, profile) in the past 30 years, which was one of the best periods in stock market history."

No new bull

Steve Hochberg, chief market analyst at Elliott Wave International: "I don't know off the top of my head of any instance of a lasting market turn without new leadership. The one thing we are highly confident about is that what is occurring now (the October-November stock-market rally) is not a lasting market turn. It is a bear market rally, like so many that we have experienced since the March 2000 peak."

Steve Hochberg, Robert Bishop, Bill Murphy and 40 other counter-trend strategists will speak this week at the New Orleans Investment Conference.


Post  44924  by  wilful       OT: To those wishing to join me in our

Post  44925  by  pacemakernj       Reply
Linda, some market thoughts. I am still holding my KRY and will do so for about another month. I think that until we get a clarification on just how much stock and debt will be issued, it looks like it could be dead money. I bought more in the 1.65 range thinking that the fed would cut rates, the dollar would weaken and the POG would break the $330 barrier. Well, two of those things happen and gold started to rally but I am mystified as to why it has not gone higher. I have always stuck to my premise that the gold play was a put option on the dollar. Furthermore, Europe did not cut rates which should have made the dollar collapse. But it did not. This is strange stuff here. Everything I expected to happen, has, and yet gold has not really moved out of its trading range. My target on the Euro was 115. Maybe they can gradually control the dollar and let it weaken to that spot. Which would be a good thing. That would take the POG to the 350-370 range which was/is my target. But unfortunately as a trader tying up cash waiting for a move that may or may not come when there are better bets on the board is well not good. Because at the end of the day that is what I have become a trader. That said I am very bullish right now. Si imo, it's lock and load. I think after the next few days we will start to get a very good rally to the end of the year. Good Luck, Pace.

Post  44926  by  pacemakernj       Reply
PMCW, it's nice to see someone else become bullish as well. Pace.

Post  44927  by  pacemakernj       OT: PMCW, I appreciate the company. BTW, why is it
Post  44928  by  pmcw       OT: pace, I posted my positive impression of the e
Post  44929  by  jeffbas       OT: I think we should put some windmills down in W
Post  44930  by  maniati       OT: wilful: Sara Jane Olson....

Post  44931  by  optimistic4dollars       Reply
Japan headed to 4th recession in decade...

11/10 15:22
Japan's GDP Growth Probably Slowed to 0.5% in Third Quarter
By Yoshiko Matsushita

Tokyo, Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's economic growth probably slowed in the third quarter amid waning U.S. demand for goods from computer chips to video games, suggesting the world's second-biggest economy may be headed for its fourth recession in a decade.

Growth probably slowed to an annual 1.8 percent pace in the third quarter from 2.6 percent in the second, according to the median forecast of 22 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The economy probably grew 0.5 percent from the second quarter, seasonally adjusted, after growing 0.6 percent in the period to June 30.

Tokyo Electron Ltd., Sony Corp. and other manufacturers are paring sales estimates as demand cools from the U.S., Japan's biggest overseas market. Lower sales are prompting companies to curb investment and lay off workers, hurting the consumer spending that makes up more than half the economy. The report will be released at 8:50 a.m. Japan time on Wednesday.

``We cut our sales outlook because of uncertainty over consumer demand, mainly in the U.S.,'' said Satoshi Fukuoka, a spokesman for Sony, maker of the PlayStation 2 video-game console. ``But uncertainty of consumer demand in Japan is also one of the factors.''

Exports accounted for half of Japan's growth in the second quarter, the first expansion in more than a year. Overseas shipments fell in September for a fourth month and will probably extend their slide into the final quarter of the year, economists said.

``This will be the shortest streak of recovery in the post-war period,'' said Takehiro Sato, an economist at Morgan Stanley Japan Ltd. ``It's possible that recovery may end'' just after the third quarter, he said.

The shortest recovery so far has been the 21-month expansion from January 1999 through October 2000. The current recovery, which started last November, may have ended in September or October, Sato said.

Bonds Gain

Japanese government bonds have been rising in anticipation of slowing growth, which makes debt more attractive relative to stocks and reduces the chances of inflation. Ten-year bond yields last week fell to 0.955 percent, the lowest since November 1998.

Japan's economy has been in a slump since the real-estate bubble burst in the early 1990s, leaving banks saddled with bad loans that have since ballooned to an estimated 52.4 trillion yen ($433 billion.) That has made banks reluctant to lend, starving the economy of the fresh credit it needs to grow.

The government of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is now pressing banks to clear the bad loans so they can start lending again. That may dent growth before it brings the economy back to health as banks cut off delinquent borrowers, driving them into bankruptcy.

Falling Demand

Exports, one of the main drivers of growth, will probably extend their slump. Last week's interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve suggests that the U.S. economy will slow amid rising unemployment and slumping consumer confidence.

U.S. growth will fall to a 2.2 percent annual rate this quarter from an expected 3.6 percent pace in the third quarter, according to a consensus estimate of economists surveyed by Blue Chip Economic Indicators.

That will hurt demand for products such as Sony's video games. Concerned about flagging audio-visual sales in the second half, Sony last month cut its full-year revenue forecast by 100 billion yen to 7.6 trillion yen.

Tokyo Electron, the world's No. 2 supplier of chipmaking equipment, said fiscal second-quarter profit plunged 73 percent because chipmakers cut spending. The company slashed its full-year profit forecast 75 percent.

``It's clear Japan cannot rely on exports anymore,'' said Hitoshi Asaoka, an economist at Mitsubishi Research Institute.

Job Cuts

Slumping exports are prompting companies to cut workers. Advantest Corp., the world's biggest maker of memory-chip testing equipment, said last month it would fire 600 people after announcing a fiscal first-half loss.

Consumer spending, which economists said probably grew in the third quarter, will be shaken by layoffs and slumping wages, hurting the economy in the final three months of the year.

Japan's unemployment rate held at 5.4 percent for a fifth month in September, just shy of December's record 5.5 percent. Cash earnings of employees at companies with five or more workers fell 1 percent in September from a year earlier, following a 3 percent decline in August.

Capital spending, which accounts for about 15 percent of the economy, is also slowing, economists said, as manufactures cut back on investment in factories and machinery in anticipation of flagging sales. Japanese companies cut orders for machinery by 13.6 percent in August, the biggest drop in five years.

Post  44932  by  pacemakernj       OT: PMCW, I did miss that post Friday as I was wor
Post  44933  by  tinljhtkh       OT: motordavid!
Post  44934  by  tinljhtkh       OT: Clo!
Post  44935  by  tinljhtkh       OT: In another 100 years,

Post  44936  by  tinljhtkh       Reply

Ever look up the definition of "becalmed"?

It used to cause the British navy all sorts of problems! It is also interesting to note that had Titanic been powered by sail, she would never have hit the iceberg that night! It was so perfect, and windless, a night that there wasn't even any wave action against the base of the bergs!




Post  44937  by  tinljhtkh       OT: optimistic4dollars!
Post  44938  by  tinljhtkh       OT: The Lucy Diaries! Sunday, November 10, 2002--m
Post  44940  by  motordavid       OT: Tin: yeah, was worth a
Post  44941  by  oldCADuser       OT: I know it's hard to believe, but...
Post  44942  by  oldCADuser       OT: Even if it had...

Post  44943  by  wilful       Reply
Thanks Maniati. eom.

Post  44944  by  lkorrow       Reply
rdb, that's taking the bull by the horns! Green power's really taking off. They're deploying these systems left and right. I think it's marvelous a town is taking such an initiative. One thing's for sure, we're getting buried in taxes. There's wind in a quarry?

One thing about those windmills that needs some work is the cutoff system. I was speaking to someone at the Oak Ridge energy museum recently about the new windmills they installed on a mountain near by. He said if there are wind gusts, the propellors disengage and someone has to manually reset them. One would think there ought to be a way to make them more efficient, so they could absorb the gusts and if they have to have a cutoff, there should be a way to automate it. jmho. On that site, they need a 4-wheel drive to get up the mountain and reset it. In bad weather, that can be a real hastle. They're not getting the savings they thought they would because of it.

Post  44945  by  maniati       OT: OCU: Yeah, that story would be funny if it wer

Post  44946  by  pmcw       Reply
lk, The problem with wind gusts should be a non-issue. It would be trivial to design a "smart" windmill that would not only reset, but even anticipate the gust and alter the pitch of the blades real time.

T long lines has used similar smart circuitry for years to perform adaptive echo cancellation under changing line load situations. Where there is a pattern, a precursor or even a trip point than can be modeled it is an easy task to design a circuit to control the function.

Regards, pmcw